The Impact of Xi’s Visit to China on U.S.-China Communication in the Spontaneous Dialogue Between the United States and China
SAN FRANCISCO — The last time China’s leader, Xi Jinping, visited the United States was in 2017. The U.S. and China had not yet been able to create a full-blown trade war. Former President Trump touted “great chemistry” with Xi.
In previous meetings, the American counterpart was warned not to “play with fire” over Taiwan, which Beijing considers its part of China. The administration has since said that Biden’s comments about the U.S. defending Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion were off the mark.
So when they meet again this Wednesday in the San Francisco Bay Area, they have lots to discuss. NPR reporters are watching five things.
The visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan last year affected U.S.-China communication on military issues. China swiftly suspended most senior military-to-military dialogue in protest. Analysts warn of a potential miscalculation in areas such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait because of the lack of exchanges.
Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at the think tank Defense Priorities, says more direct communication would help in the event of a crisis, and also provide ballast over the longer term.
I have seen how exposure to China affected the views of top U.S. military leaders, partly because they have to speak to these people.
The Conversation between China and the U.S. After the Russia-Ukraine War: Trump’s Response to Putin’s Comments on the “Taiwan Crisis”
This has long been a key issue between the U.S. and China. Although Xi has not publicly laid out a timeline for “reuniting” Taiwan with the mainland, analysts from both sides of the Pacific have chimed in with their own guesses in the last few years.
Wednesday’s discussion on Taiwan is expected to be equally heated. Beijing will be keeping a close eye on Washington during the run up to Taiwan’s presidential election.
After the Russia-Ukraine war, China’s stance on the matter was criticized in the U.S., as well as by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Right now there are changes — the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years — and we are the ones driving these changes together,” he was filmed as saying when bidding farewell to Putin in March.
Although China claims to be neutral in the battle between Israel and Hamas, the Biden administration thinks Beijing could have some influence over how the next stage of the conflict develops – especially if Beijing has strong relations with Iran.
Jake Sullivan, a national security advisor to Biden, said on Monday that President Biden would make the point to President Xi that Iran’s destabilizing behavior across the Middle East is not in the interests of China or any other responsible country.
Both sides have set the expectations low, but analysts are watching keenly on what’s to be said and agreed on over the course of this week when the Chinese leader is in town. They range from the export control to tariffs and sanctions.
It is believed that the dinner in San Francisco where Xi is supposed to address is indicative of his desire to attract American businesses back into the Chinese market.
Excerpts from an editorial published on Monday by Xinhua, the Communist Party’s official news outlet, show that over the years, setbacks in China-U.S. relations have not stopped the president from promoting people to people exchanges with the US.
In addition to reestablishing communications between the U.S. and China’s military, the White House has said efforts to combat the illicit trade of fentanyl will also be a topic of Biden and Xi’s conversation.
A year ago when they met, the wind was at both of their backs. Xi had just engineered a norm-bending third term as Communist Party boss, and stacked the policy-making Politburo with allies.
In the U.S., midterm election wins for the Democratic Party in 2022, and the lack of an expected “Red Wave”, validated the Biden agenda just days before meeting Xi. The US would remain active in global affairs thanks to the votes cast in the November elections, said Vice President Biden at the time.
After a series of public protests, the COV controls were ended, but it wasn’t until a few months after that the discontent with the government’s policies began to manifest itself. A study this year said the subsequent rapid spread of the virus after the “dynamic zero COVID” policy may have led to 2 million excess deaths.
The Chinese economy has been struggling this year and it’s unlikely to hit the official target of 5 percent. Investment has slumped, and consumer confidence has plummeted.
Joe Biden: Cold War with the United States, the Middle East, and the War Between Syria and Israel, and His Implications for Russia and Ukraine
For Biden, his polling is troubling. Almost 40 percent of Americans disapprove of him. A number of polls show that Donald Trump will beat Vice President Biden in the presidential election next year.
After speaking with the Chinese leader for the first time in a year, Joe Biden is expected to announce agreements on military communication channels and counternarcotics at a solo press conference.
Biden said that he wanted to get back on a normal course of communication, that he would talk to one another when there was a crisis, and that the military would still have contact with one another.
Iran’s involvement in the war between Hamas and Israel will be included in the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, he said.