Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Polling and Politics in the Final Days of the Election (with an Emphasis on Your Guts)
It’s nice to vote on Election Day. A friend voted at the museum the other day, and said there was a long line. A lot of women. I’m predicting a blowout Kamala Harris victory — in Manhattan.
And yeah, what will likely be huge turnout in New York will not have any effect whatsoever on the outcome, since everybody on both sides knew from Day 1 that this was not a state anybody needed to campaign in much. But it would be nice if the margin for Kamala Harris in Donald Trump’s hometown was a super blowout.
Bret: On the other hand, who knows? The polls were too favorable to Democrats in 2016 and 2020. They were too confident in the GOP. I have no idea what to make of that Selzer poll in Iowa, which has Harris winning a state Trump won by eight points in 2020 — maybe it’s an outlier, or maybe it’s hinting at a Harris landslide. If we have an early night on Tuesday, I wouldn’t be surprised. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re stuck in recount and lawsuit hell for days or even weeks on end, either.
Frank Bruni, a contributing Opinion writer, hosted a written online conversation on Friday, Nov. 1, with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a contributing Opinion writer and Republican pollster, and Nate Silver, the author of “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” and the newsletter Silver Bulletin, to discuss polling and politics in the final days of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Frank Bruni thanks the people who joined him. Election Day is almost here, and still it seems that nobody really knows anything. Democrats worry about that. MAGA Republicans strut, emulating their idol. Is it true that you two? I want to check on your gut since you recently wrote a guest essay for us about how Donald Trump would win the election. The Guts change. Has yours?
Nate Silver: Well, the whole point of that article — including the headline — was that I don’t think my gut is worth anything in this case. Many people interpreted it differently, as though I was revealing my super-duper secret real prediction. I was expecting that. But your gut feeling a week before the election will mostly be an emotional response or picking up on the vibes through osmosis — Republicans are invariably more confident so that seeps through — and I don’t think either of those things will help you make a better prediction.
People get upset when I don’t tell them who I think will win, because I don’t think we know how this is going to go with the data. It’s understandable that we want certainty. People want to be prepared for an outcome. They do not like surprises. Mental and emotional preparation for a wide range of outcomes is what you should keep in mind.