Demographics: The Story of Donald Trump and the RNC in 2024-Election-Voters-Demographics-Trump-Harris
In 2024, polls show Trump doing better because of concerns about the economy, particularly prices and housing. While immigration may be a threshold issue for many, pocketbook issues are equally important. Trump has taken note of that, and he’s also leaned into the idea that Latinos who are here legally and eligible to vote came to the U.S. the “right” way.
The opposite way was taken by Trump. He juiced his base with a nativist and nationalistic message, similar to what has happened for right-wing strongmen in other countries.
The RNC has stated that they need to embrace and champion comprehensive immigration reform. “If we do not, our Party’s appeal will continue to shrink to its core constituencies only.”
Despite embracing comprehensive immigration changes the former governor was blocked by Congress in his own party. It’s been a similar story with every immigration push since.
Source: 10 key demographic groups that could decide the presidential election
What Will Former President Donald Trump or Vice President Harris Win? A Recommendation for the First Election Night in Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan
In Georgia, North Carolina and Michigan, Democrats have a chance if they have higher than the national average Black eligible-voter populations.
White voters are the largest voting group. Republicans have been dominant with them in the last 20 years, but with the growing Latino and Asian American populations, white voters have been on a sharp decline as a share of the electorate since the 1990s.
Harris leads former President Donald Trump among likely voters, thanks to white, college-educated and Black voters. She lags behind younger voters compared to how Democrats have done in the past, with just a day to go before the final votes are cast.
A lot was made about the election of Trump in an effort to get young Black men to vote for him. It’s hard to tell if that’s real in pre- election polls because of the large margins of error.
The education divide is very prominent here. The widest gap is between women and men with a college degree. Biden won college-graduate white women by 9 points, while Trump won white women without degrees by 27. Trump won college-graduate white men by 3 points, but won white, non-college men 70% to 28%.
Overall, there is a 15-point gap between men and women in their support for Harris or Trump. The Harris leads are with women by 11 points and with men by 4 points. That’s actually smaller than last month’s whopping 34-point divide.
Democrats hope that number goes even higher this year, given the party’s intense focus on women’s reproductive rights, and the fact that this is the first general election since the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
Harris wants to cut into Trump’s margins with rural voters after Biden cut into his margins in 2020 with rural voters. That could be a major reason why Trump becomes the 47th president.
Almost nothing now is a better predictor of how white voters will vote than whether or not they have a college degree. White voters with college degrees had long been reliable Republican voters. In 2020, Biden won them narrowly, and that changed between 2016 and 2020.
Below is a guide to the groups to pay closest attention to on election night that could tell the story of how — and why — former President Donald Trump or Vice President Harris wins.
The polls suggest that the presidential election will be very close. But beneath the closeness of the head-to-head numbers, there have been some important shifts happening in American politics.
Obama was close to victory in 2012 and won a second term. Clinton lost the election to Trump due to her fall off in those areas. This time around, pre-election polling has shown Harris doing even better than Biden in the suburbs. That is going to have to hold for her to have a chance of winning.
The suburbs have shifted toward Democrats, and Trump has increased Republicans’ advantage in rural areas. In 2020, Biden won the election, as did Obama in 2008.
Something else to keep an eye on, though: Union voters are changing. They’re becoming younger and more white-collar — and not entirely the stereotype of white, male working-class voters of the 1960s.
Democrats have dominated with union voters over the years. That helped insulate them in the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin and Michigan, which have high concentrations of white, working-class voters.
North Carolina is one place that people should look in the states. If Harris is going to win there, she will need a big margin with young voters. Consider how much the Democratic party has changed over time for young and black voters.
But voters 18-29 years old broke for Obama by almost 50 points compared to just 17 for Biden. They also turned out at a 3 percentage-point-higher share of the electorate in 2008 compared to 2020.
Harris has been lagging behind the group in polling. This is a group that turns out at lower rates than others, and polls have indicated that they are among the least likely to say they are definitely voting in this election.
In certain places, the comments by the comedian may hurt Trump because he called Puerto Rico afloating island of garbage. Harris campaign has pointed to this and other racist rhetoric in order to convince Latino voters to vote for Harris.
There is a perception among the respondents in a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll that the proposals that Vice President Harris has put forward for this campaign won’t be carried out by her as president.
Voters were evenly split on whether Harris intended to carry out her proposals or if her promises were just politics, and if she intended to win the election.
She may also be holding up well because the poll found the narrowest gap between Trump and Harris on who likely voters said would be best to handle the economy, with 50% saying Trump and 49% saying Harris. Trump’s previous views about his handling of the economy have led to some beliefs.
But Harris hasn’t quite been able to seize the change mantle as part of the Biden administration, as voters were split on who most represents change: 50% said Trump, 48% chose Harris.
The survey was done over a long period of time. There are 1,332 registered voters and 1,301 likely voters. With registered voters, the survey has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error. With likely voters, it’s a 3.5 point margin of error, meaning results could be 3.5 points higher or lower.
Most early voters selected Harris and a majority of respondents said they have already voted. A majority of those who said they have not yet voted, but intend to, said they would cast their ballots for Trump.
While most said their candidate should accept the results of the election, nearly 4 in 10 Republicans said Trump should challenge them if he’s determined to be the loser — and more than 7 in 10 said they are concerned about violence after the election.
The Harris campaign said that over the weekend, some 90,000 volunteers knocked on 3 million doors, for example. Trump has ramped up his events, with four rallies planned across three states on Monday.
Those who identify as white evangelical voters, those who live in rural areas, and those without a college degree are all good candidates for Trump.
The gender divide becomes particularly pronounced by education. On the question of whether Harris actually intends to enact her promises or if they’re just political, 53% of women said she intends to follow through, while 54% of men said the opposite.
Harris has been targeting Republican women, campaigning, for example, with Rep. Liz Cheney, a conservative former congresswoman from Wyoming and daughter of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney.
It is important for Harris voters to preserve democracy but it is also important for independents. Half of Harris voters and 3 in 10 independents cited it as their top issue. Harris has been focused on this in her closing arguments.
Trump voters, on the other hand, said inflation and immigration are most important for them. Independents said inflation and immigration were second and third most important after preserving democracy.
Notably, when voters were asked what their second choice would be, abortion rights is second behind inflation as the second-most important issue. That was especially true for Democrats, showing just how salient and motivating the issue is for them.