Joe Biden’s Midterm Pitch and the Pain It Takes to Land Republicans in the White House: The Case for Changing the Architecture of the 21st Century
Joe Biden’s midterm pitch is increasingly stark and alarmist as he grapples for momentum in an election seemingly slipping away from Democrats that could land him with a Congress inflicting two years of misery on his White House.
In New York, the President went tout the importance of manufacturing Semiconductors, which is important to the Senate. The fact that he showed up in a state he won by more than 20 points two years ago shows how his low approval ratings limit his capacity to help his party climb out of a hole.
Biden made a case in his speech that his policies will help repair the decline in American manufacturing. He argued that the bipartisan infrastructure measure, a law meant to ignite US semiconductors production and another that builds a clean energy economy, would bring jobs and prosperity. He thought the social spending measure he passed in the summer would make Americans prosperous since it would cut long-term health care costs.
His approach reflected the testing environment facing the Democrats, who are threatening to lose control of the House of Representatives as their hopes for retaining the Senate appear to be fading.
Republicans are trying to build a wave that could translate into a majority in the House if they are able to win deep blue territory. Republicans only need a net gain of five seats to flip the chamber, and they could win enough seats in the Empire State alone to do that, CNN’s Harry Enten wrote Thursday.
Senate races in Arizona, for instance, have narrowed as Democratic Senator Mark Kelly had a clear lead. Democrats were also rattled this week by a shaky debate performance by Pennsylvania Senate nominee John Fetterman, who is still facing auditory and processing issues after a stroke. The party needs the commonwealth to pick up a seat in order to hold onto the Senate majority, and vice President Harris is the only one who has the power to break a tie. Schumer said in a conversation with Biden and Kathy Hochul that the debate in Pennsylvania didn’t hurt him, but that he was concerned about the high-profile race in Georgia.
The loss of either chamber could be disastrous for the President, who is bracing for a barrage of Republican investigations targeting his administration, his handling of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the business affairs of his son, Hunter Biden, who is under investigation by the Justice Department.
It’s far too early to judge the current state of the race because there’s so much uncertainty in polling. The speech made by Biden indicated Democrats’ burden in the election,suggesting that the historical pattern of first-term presidents getting a fall out may be reestablishing, after their party tried to buck the trend this summer.
His speech showed the impossibility of highlighting upbeat aspects of the economy when inflation is raging near 40-year highs.
Biden warned of a political fight with Republicans over entitlements if the debt ceiling was not raised, and it was a preview of what could become of Washington if political control is split between the parties.
“They’re going to shut down the government, refuse to pay America’s bills for the first time in American history to put America in default… unless we yield to their demands to cut Social Security and Medicare.”
“Nothing will create more chaos or do more damage to the American economy,” the President said, admitting that Democrats always charge Social Security is at risk in elections but also arguing that proposals by Republican Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin this time really do threaten the retirement program.
But the issue is that all of those measures – if they succeed – will not unspool in time to be felt in this election. If Biden were to run for reelection, they could help him but for now they are aspirational.
Some 47% of voters in Wisconsin, 46% in Michigan and 44% in Pennsylvania said that the economy and inflation was the most important issue affecting their vote. In each state, this more than doubled the number of those most exercised about the next-highest-ranking issue – abortion. Democrats had hoped that outrage over the Supreme Court decision would make their economic liabilities go away.
In New York, the race for governor has made it unexpectedly competitive despite the fact that the Republican Party hasn’t won a statewide race in two decades. Hochul and Biden were together in Syracuse, which is also home to a competitive House race.
The Problem With Inflation: What President Biden Needs to Lose, or What We Can’t Learn about the Dark Side Of Our Country
The problem, however, is that the President was conjuring a vision of an economy that many Americans do not recognize. The economy is doing well in a number of areas, according to data, but it is not the lived experience out in the country that could doom Democrats.
This election is turning out to be an object lesson in the pernicious political impact of inflation – a force that many adult Americans have never experienced since it last cast its dark shadow over everyday life back in the 1980s.
When voter’s income is not keeping up with their cost, they are likely to look for scapegoats. Biden, as the president in power, is to blame.
Biden blames outside factors for the hike in living costs, including Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which also pushed up gasoline prices – though these are now easing – and the aftermath of supply chain disruption during the pandemic. Biden flushed the system with billions of dollars in cash to send the economy into an overheating cycle, Republicans say.
The Treasury Secretary told CNN in an interview that many of the measures taken to boost the economy will take time to come on line.
People are struggling with inflation. When I was a kid, my dad would tell me, if I did not cover all my expenses, I was in real trouble.
His comment showed that Biden understands acutely the problem that appears increasingly likely to doom Democrats this election season. But there’s nothing in the short term he can do about it.
How Do Families Live Today? The View from the Center for News and Politics of the U.S. Economy during 2022 through 2022
Americans in both higher and lower income brackets are all more likely now than they were a year ago to say their finances have worsened over the course of the past year, but the shift among Americans earning $50,000 or more annually is particularly sharp: 45% say their finances have worsened during 2022, up from 24% who said the same at the end of 2021. Democrats, Republicans and independents are all saying they have lost money.
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating stands at 46%, with 54% disapproving – still underwater, but up from 41% who approved in late October. They are his strongest numbers in CNN polls in over a year. His approval rating ticked up several points across partisan lines in comparison with polling taken prior to the midterm election. Just 14% of all US adults strongly approve of Biden, while 35% strongly disapprove.
The current cost of living represents a near-universal worry, with 93% saying they’re at least somewhat concerned by this, including 63% very concerned. Roughly 8 in 10 (80%) say they’re concerned about the recent increase in interest rates, with 42% saying they’re very concerned. Relatively few are seriously worried about someone in their household losing a job within the next few months – 37% say they’re at least somewhat concerned about this, but just 15% that they’re very concerned.
Many say they are taking steps to reduce expenses in the past few months due to the recent economic conditions. About 7 in 10 Americans (71%) say they’ve cut back on nonessential spending to afford necessities, with 71% also saying they’ve changed what groceries they buy in order to stay within their budget – up from 63% on both questions in CNN’s polling conducted this spring. A large number of people say that they have had to cut back on how much they spend on holiday gifts. And 34% say that they’ve had difficulty in finding affordable housing. The number of people who said they had cut back on driving fell from 50% this spring to 49% in the latest poll. That is still higher than the share who said that they had stopped driving a year ago because of gas prices, which at the time were cheaper than they are today.
In some cases, Americans’ financial outlooks are influenced by their partisan support as well as their current level of income. Two-thirds of Republicans in households making less than $50,000 annually say their financial situation has worsened over the past year, as do 45% of Democrats making less than $50,000. Republicans in households earning $50,000 or more are more likely to say they are worse off than Democrats in similar households.
A random national sample of 1,208 adults were drawn from a panel for the CNN Poll that was conducted on December 1 through 7. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. The results of a full sample have a larger margin of sampling error than the subgroup results.