High-stakes South Korean Air-to-Surface Reactions to Donald Trump’s 2018 Hoguk Warfare
Tensions reached near-crisis levels in 2017 when North Korea launched 23 missiles throughout the year, including two over Japan, as well as conducting a nuclear test. The weapons shown in the tests were powerful and capable of putting most of the world in range.
Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White House’s National Security Council, called the launch a “dangerous and reckless decision.” Unlike the South Korean government, she described the North Korean weapon as “a long-range ballistic missile.” Jake Sullivan spoke with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts on Tuesday to discuss their responses to the Paris Agreement and Washington’s “ironclad commitments” to the defense of its allies.
Kim’s high-stakes summit with Donald Trump collapsed due to wrangling over U.S.-led sanctions, and he has since taken steps to enlarge his arsenal. Kim would want to gain the lifting of international sanctions and end the regular US-South Korean military drills in order to become a legit nuclear power, according to some observers.
In August of 2018, Donald Trump held a historic summit with Kim. The two leaders had a good relationship in return for Trump saying theyfell in love. The US and North Korea suspended large-scale military exercises, as well as the North Korean pledge to freeze missile launches, after it was discovered that the country had destroyed some of the nuclear test sites.
Friday’s launch is North Korea’s 28th this year, according to a CNN count, and comes as South Korea wraps up its Hoguk military drills – a joint amphibious operation between the South Korean navy, marine corps and air force.
The US and South Korea initially responded to the provocation with a precision bombing exercise on Tuesday, which involved a South Korean F-15K fighter jet firing two air-to-surface munitions at a virtual target in a firing range west of the Korean Peninsula, per the South Korean Joint Chiefs.
Wednesday’s launch included four ATACMS missiles, the statement by the South Korean Joint Chiefs said. Also known as Army Tactical Missile Systems, such weapons are surface-to-surface missiles that can fly around 200 miles (320 kilometers).
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“This is not the first time we’ve done this in response to provocations by the North to make sure that we can demonstrate our own capabilities,” Kirby told CNN’s Pamela Brown on the “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.”
“North Korea is going to keep conducting missile tests until the current round of modernization is done. I don’t think a nuclear (test) explosion is far behind,” Lewis said.
“There is simply no practical plan at this point, especially in the short term, to bring North Korea to the negotiating table and to pursue denuclearization.”
The US, South Korea and Japan have responded with missile launches and military exercises after the aggressive acceleration in weapons testing.
Then the Covid-19 pandemic hit, pushing North Korea further into isolation. The already-impoverished country sealed its borders entirely, with foreign diplomats and aid workers fleeing en masse. During this time, the number of missile launches also remained low – just four in 2020 and eight in 2021.
After the recent events, it may be the right time, with Kim proclaiming victory against Covid in August and the new US administration focusing on shows of unity with South Korea.
A professor at a South Korean school says he expects that North Korean engineers will be eager to make sure their toys work.
Jeffrey Lewis said that it is normal for North Korea to take a break during the summer and resume testing in the fall.
Several experts said Kim could be sending a message by showing off North Korea’s wares during the current global conflict.
They want to remind the world that they exist and that their engineers are working around the clock to develop both nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
Carl Schuster worked as a director of operations at the US Pacific Command in Hawaii. Kim “launches missiles to generate attention towards himself, but also to create pressure for Japan and the United States to engage him,” he said.
According to a CNN count, the 26th missile test by the Kim regime this year is the most in a single year, though analysts stress that the reports should be treated with caution, as North Korean state media had previously overstated the success of such launches.
Lankov said that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have also boosted Kim’s confidence because “it demonstrated that if you have nuclear weapons, you can have almost impunity. You are in trouble if you don’t have nuclear weapons.
Despite the quick military response by the US and allies, experts say there is little they can do to stop North Korea from conducting weapons tests.
The Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier was sent by the Americans. The missiles are not necessarily working well, and that’s why South Koreans are launching them. “What is the impact of all these American aircraft carriers cruising around Korea? Pretty much nothing.”
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The North doesn’t have the widespread use of technology that helps economic and societal advances, but also gives access to information for the intelligence services of the US and its allies.
“Since so much of what North Korea does is driven by the leader himself, you really have to get inside his head, and that’s a hard intelligence problem,” said Chris Johnstone, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
In May, Russia and China vetoed a US-drafted UN resolution to strengthen sanctions on North Korea for its weapons testing – the first time either country had blocked a sanction vote against the North since 2006.
The law also demonstrated North Korea’s hopes of strengthening its ties with China and Russia, said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
An Army Tactical Missile System is fired during a joint training session between the United States and South Korea, on October 5 at an undisclosed location.
However, in terms of wider public perception, KCNA, North Korea’s state-run media, has made no mention of missile launches for months – since its last report of a launch in March.
If China holds a Communist Party Congress in the middle of the month, Kim will probably wait until then, according to Schuster and Lankov.
The meeting of the party elite is the most significant event on the Chinese political calendar – especially so this year, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping expected to be appointed to a third term in power, further cementing his status as the most powerful Chinese leader in decades.
Kim “depends too much on Chinese aid to keep his country afloat,” meaning he can’t afford to “do anything to detract from the Party Congress,” said Schuster. “So although China can’t dictate to him what he must do … he will not cause them problems.”
On October 6, North Korea practiced procedures that could initiate a tactical nuclear strike on “the enemies’ main military command facilities” and, on Sunday, enemy ports, Pyongyang’s state media said.
The nuclear combat forces were prepared to hit and wipe out the objects at any location and time in the seven times that the tactical nuclear operation units had been practicing, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
The flurry of military activity on both sides of the border came just hours after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned his nuclear forces are fully prepared for “actual war.”
The missile launches by North Korea marked the first time that an army unit was involved in the operation of tactical nukes, according to a private Institute in South Korea.
The launch of the missile from under the inland dam was the first of it’s kind since it had previously test-launched missiles from a submarine.
Kim said that North Korea likely wants to make it harder for its enemies to detect its missiles before they are launched.
KCNA said when the weapon launched from the reservoir was flying above the sea target, North Korean authorities confirmed the reliability of the explosion of the missile’s warhead, apparently a dummy one, at the set altitude.
North Korea released a slew of photos on the launches. One of them showed Kim and his wife Ri Sol Ju, both wearing ochre field jackets, frowning while covering their ears. Some observers say the image indicated Ri’s elevated political standing because it was likely the first time for her to observe a weapons launch with her husband.
Kim said that South Korea has become andoubted enemy and that the US has increased pressure on the North to reach the maximum level.
The assistant professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul said that there were multiple motives for the announcement made by North Korea on Monday.
The US Navy’s Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5 Report on Test-Flight of Cruise Missiles at Camp Humphreys
The launches are framed as tests by the units that launch them but not the missiles themselves. Lewis said that it suggests the systems are deployed.
Camp Humphreys is the largest US military installation outside of the US and has a population of more than 36,000 Americans, with civilian workers and family members.
“The KCNA report may also be harbinger of a forthcoming nuclear test for the kind of tactical warhead that would arm the units Kim visited in the field,” he said.
Kim further emphasized that Pyongyang will thoroughly monitor enemies’ military movements and “strongly take all military countermeasures” if needed, KCNA stated.
A US Navy aircraft carrier strike group participated in several days of bilateral and trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units that ended Saturday, a statement from the US Navy’s Task Force 70 said.
The commander of the Task Force 70/Carrier Strike Group 5 said the commitment to regional security and the defense of partner nations is demonstrated by their flexibility and adaptability.
The security environment around Japan was becoming more severe and drills with the US Navy strengthened the alliance’s capability to respond to threats.
The KCNA report claimed the cruise missiles tested Wednesday flew oval and figure-8 patterns for almost three hours above the sea before hitting their target.
The details of some reports can’t be trusted according to the professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University. The Kim regime is often transparent about weapons development goals but it also exaggerates strength and capabilities.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said that the missile tests show a progressing program even if current strengths are overstated.
A cruise missile is powered by a jet engine, stays inside Earth’s atmosphere during its flight and is maneuverable with control surfaces similar to an airplane’s.
Cruise missiles have smaller payloads than ballistic missiles, so would require a smaller nuclear warhead than a missile designed to hit the mainland United States, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile.
The North has test-fired more than 30 missiles this week, including an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday that triggered evacuation alerts in northern Japan, and flew large numbers of warplanes inside its territory in an angry reaction to a massive combined aerial exercise between the United States and South Korea.
“Policymakers in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington should not allow domestic politics and other challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine to prevent them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions” on Pyongyang, he said.
There is precedent for the United States to finesse the situation. Washington didn’t brandish their weapons so they were able to live with nuclear weapons from India and Israel.
Although Israel has never acknowledged its nuclear capability, it remains the worst-kept secret in the world. Egypt did not have to waste time pursuing their own nuclear programs, because they did not openly flaunt their capability. The United States conducted tests in 1998 and turned a blind eye. Washington pragmatically set aside its concerns over those tests to enable cooperation in other areas.
North Korea’s 27th Missile Launch: Tests of the September 19 Nuclear Agreement and Security Council Resolutions? South Korea and Japan are Holding Their Breath
If the Trump administration had taken this approach a few years back, we may be in a very different place today. By now, North Korea wouldn’t be disarmed. We could explore ways to reduce tension and even secure pledges of good behavior from North Korea in exchange for sanctions relief and economic assistance. This is far from ideal, but vastly preferable to Pyongyang stockpiling weapons.
South Korea accused the North of using drones across their heavily fortified border for the first time in five years, and North Korea responded by sending its own drones toward the South.
The no-fly zone straddling the border between North and South Korea was crossed by North Korean aircraft between 10:30 a.m. and 12:20 a.m. Friday. After that, Pyongyang launched its 27th missile attack of the year at 3:33 a.m.
“Artillery firing in the maritime buffer zones is a clear violation of the September 19 military agreement, and the launch of short-range ballistic missiles is also a violation of UN Security Council resolutions,” the JCS said.
Fifteen people are targets of the sanctions because they brought supplies related to the funding of the weapons of mass destruction and missile development in North Korea.
The US military said that the North Korean launch did not pose an immediate threat to US personnel or allies, and it was aware of it.
Next week, South Korea is set to conduct a large-scale joint air force training with the US involving the US’ F-35B stealth jet, according to the South Korean Air Force.
On Thursday the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said, “everybody is holding its breath about a potential North Korean nuclear test, which would provide further confirmation of a program which is moving full steam ahead in a way that is incredibly concerning.”
We are following this very closely. The director general of the IAEA said that they hope it does not happen.
Some people in South Korea and Japan were told to seek shelter because of the projectiles, which are believed to be a intercontinental missile.
The Prime Minister of Japan called the launches intolerable. Japan’s government initially issued an alert for three prefectures, saying the ICBM had flown over the main island of Honshu, but later corrected the statement. North Korea fired an intermediate range missile over Japan in October.
“And the region where the North Korean missile fell,” he adds, “has many fishing boats catching squid,” suggesting that it could put South Koreans’ livelihoods at risk, and “pose existential threat to South Korea, if need be.”
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the participation of the B-1Bs in the joint drills demonstrated the allies’ readiness to “sternly respond” to North Korean provocations and the U.S. commitment to defend its ally with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear.
B-1B flyovers had been a familiar show of force during past periods of tensions with North Korea. The last time the planes were in the area was during the weapons demonstrations in North Korea. The flyovers were halted in the past several years as the US and South Korea stopped large-scale exercises to support their diplomatic efforts with North Korea.
The allies decided to extend their training to Saturday after a series of North Korean missile launches on Thursday, which led to some people in northern Japan being evacuated.
There was a second test following that early Sunday. North Korea said both Saturday’s and Sunday’s tests were of a 600mm multiple-launch rocket (MRL) system. 300mm is the size of most multiple-rocket launch systems around the world.
Kim said in the speech that the 600mm MRL was first introduced three years ago, and that production has been increased since October of 2022 for deployment. He later added that an additional 30 of the 600mm MRL will be deployed to the military simultaneously.
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The recent missile launches were not technically impressive. A professor at a university in South Korea said that high volume of tests shows that North Korea could launch different types of attacks anytime and from many directions.
“Its recent missile launches were not technically impressive. Instead, the high volume of tests at unusual times and from various locations demonstrate that North Korea could launch different types of attack, anytime, and from many directions,” Easley said.
Seoul’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) announced last month it will spend more than $2.7 billion over 10 years to strengthen the mission capabilities and survivability of its fleet of F-15K fighters, jets that would play a key role in any possible strikes on North Korea.
Washington is not standing still. As well as deploying assets like F-22 fighters and B-1 bombers to the exercises around the Korean Peninsula, the US military recently activated its first Space Force command on foreign soil in South Korea, with the unit’s new commander saying he is ready to face any threat in the region.
The new unit “will be tasked with coordinating space operations and services such as missile warning, position navigation and timing and satellite communications within the region,” according to US Forces Korea.
Ankit Panda, who is a nuclear policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in late December that there is a strong likelihood that North Korea will become a missile power.
Most of the missiles launched this year are part of military exercises. They are rehearsing for nuclear war. Panda thinks the big picture is this year.
“Kim’s comments from the party meeting seem ambitious but doable on the New Year’s resolution list,” said Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation. “It’s ambitious in that Kim consciously chose to spell out what he hopes to accomplished as we head into 2023, but it also suggests a dose of confidence on Kim’s part.”
“The new year started but our security situation is still very grave,” South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol told top military officers during a video conference. “Our military must resolutely punish any provocation by the enemy with a firm determination that we dare to risk fighting a battle.”
Ankit Panda an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that in the New Year’s speech, Kim ordered the mass production of warheads and missiles and he is doubling that in the coming year.