Russian air defense response to the Kremlin air-defense raids on Ukraine’s infrastructure: a United States-based upgrade of the Patriot Air and Missile Defense system
The Kremlin launched its most coordinated air and missile raids yet on Ukraine’s infrastructure last week. The wide-ranging attacks included the use of self-destructing explosive drones from Iran, and killed dozens of people.
Moscow has a simple calculation as it scrambles to shore up the missile defense of Ukraine: a percentage of projectiles will get through.
The great unknown is just how far such a blitz is depleting Russian inventories – and whether increasingly they will resort to stocks of older, less accurate but equally powerful missiles.
This week, some of the inventory was dispatched. But Russia has recently resorted to using much older and less precise KH-22 missiles (originally made as an anti-ship weapon), of which it still has large inventories, according to Western officials. They’re designed to take out aircraft carriers. The mall in Kremenchuk had dozens of casualties in June.
The S-300 has been adapted as an offensive missile by the Russians. Their speed makes it difficult to intercept them, as they have caused tremendous damage in Zaporizhzhia and other places. They are not accurate.
Zelensky said in a video message Tuesday that 20 of 28 missiles fired at Ukraine that morning had been shot down. Ukrainian officials have told CNN that more than half the Russian cruise missiles fired on Monday and Tuesday were brought down: 65 out of 112.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made rare public comments specifically addressing the attacks from the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
There is continuing work on improving the Ukrainian air defenses with the help of Soviet-era capabilities, said a senior Defense Department official.
The US has seen some evidence that the Iranian drones have already experienced numerous failures, according to the undersecretary of defense for policy.
The United States provided a new aid package to Ukraine which included the first ever transfer of thePatriot Air and Missile Defense system, which can bring down cruise missiles, short-range ballistic missiles and aircraft.
At Wednesday’s meeting, the Ukrainian wish-list included missiles for their existing systems as well as a transition to Western-origin layers of air defense.
Speaking after the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, he said such a system would not “control all the airspace over Ukraine, but they are designed to control priority targets that Ukraine needs to protect. What you’re looking at really is short-range low-altitude systems and then medium-range medium altitude and then long-range and high altitude systems, and it’s a mix of all of these.”
Western systems are beginning to trickle in. The first unit of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System is expected soon, and Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that a new era of air defense has begun.
But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. The IRIS-T had to be manufactured for Ukraine. Western governments have limited inventories of these systems. Ukranian is being attacked from three directions.
The blast damage of a nuclear bridge in Ukraine is a convenient alibi to escalate the War in Ukraine, says Podolyak
Poland was thanked by Ukraine’s military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Tuesday for training an air defense battalion that destroyed nine Shaheeds.
He said Poland had given Ukraine “systems” to help destroy the drones. Last month there were reports that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment (Israel has a policy of not selling “advanced defensive technology” to Kyiv) and was then transferring it to Ukraine.
Ukraine has not taken credit for the blasts, though many in the country celebrated it as a Ukrainian victory due to the bridge’s strategic and symbolic value to Russia.
But Mykhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, says Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russian forces planned the attack as a pretense to escalate the war in Ukraine.
The bridge incident is giving the Russian military a ” convenient alibi” for its losses in southern Ukraine, according to Podolyak.
He says the bridge has a single section floating above several piers, which is detached from other sections. There are multiple spans that are pulled when one falls into the water.
“The damage is definitely consistent with an explosion in the center of a bridge span, as anything else would have caused damage to the pier,” says Barr, who specializes in analyzing blast damage in war zones.
Nick Waters, an analyst with the digital forensics firm Bellingcat, points out that the bridge’s underside shows barely any blast damage, dismissing a popular Ukrainian theory that a special naval operation destroyed the bridge from below.
FSB published a video of an “examination of the truck” and its “X-ray”, which allegedly shows explosives. Where on the x-ray did the frame and the wheels disappear? The picture is on Kb OndxVO.
Ukrainian journalists pointed out that there were two images of different trucks that were shown to them by Russian state media.
Based on the ways the flames repeatedly shot out from the blast site, Barr also suggests that the truck was loaded with specialized compounds that burned hot enough to ignite a passing fuel train traveling on a parallel rail bridge, severely weakening it.
Mika Tyry, a retired military demolition specialist, told YLE, Finland’s national broadcaster, that the flames and sparks are consistent with a thermite bomb. Russia’s military has been known to use thermite, though Ukraine could have recovered the substance from unexploded Russian munitions.
“It’s a successful attack on a guarded structure, with advanced explosives, and timed with the train,” Barr says. That’s definitely indicative of a carefully planned military operation instead of a lone actor or other group.
The state media in Russia suggested on Wednesday that the attack on the bridge in Greece was an attempt to ramp up the war against the West in favor of the United States.
The Ukrainian military has been accused of using the U.S.-supplied rockets to strike targets in the occupied regions.
John Kirby told CNN on Monday that the Russians can’t throw that kind of thing together in a couple days. “This was a continuation of Putin’s designs over the last several weeks to specifically target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, and not in any way related to what had happened in Syria.”
A rocket attack on the mayor’s office in Donetsk was blamed on the Ukrainians, while Russian strikes hit a town close to a nuclear power plant.
Russia’s war in Ukraine is close to the eight-month mark. In spite of the fact that Russian forces have claimed some victories in the fierce fighting around Bakhmut, the line has not been held by the Russian side.
Neighborhood towns are key to the front line in Donbas. In a video address on Sunday, President Zelenskyy said that fighting continues in Soledar and Bakhmut.
In the Donbas region of Russia, there have been Russian-backed fights with Kyiv since the summer of 2004. The Donetsk region is among four that were illegally annexed by Russia last month.
On the Russian-Ukraine Warfare in the Kherson and Zaporizhia Regions: a “Terrorist Attack” at the Nuclear Plant
Western intelligence officials have said Zelenskyy’s claims that Russia was giving convicts with long sentences for serious crimes in return for pay and amnesty are false.
The office of Zelenskyy said that Moscow was shelling towns and villages along the front line in the east and that the fighting continued in the southern Kherson region.
The rockets at Nikopol, across from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, damaged power lines, gas pipelines, and a raft of civilian businesses and residential buildings, Ukrainian officials said. Russia and Ukraine have for months accused each other of firing at and around the nuclear plant, which is Europe’s largest. It’s run by its pre-occupation Ukrainian staff under Russian oversight.
The region of Zaporizhzhia also was illegally annexed by Russia last month, despite the fact that some 20% of it remains under Ukrainian military control.
At a firing range in the area Saturday, a group of men from a Former Soviet republic died and another 15 were wounded in a shooting before they were slain themselves. The Russian Defense Ministry called the incident a terrorist attack.
France confirmed that it is increasing military training to bolster support for Ukraine. The Defense Minister of France, Sébastien Lecornu, said in an interview published in Le Parisien that up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be embedded with military units in France for several weeks of combat training, specialized training in logistics and other needs and training on equipment supplied by France.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, accused Moscow late Saturday of conducting ” massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians,” which it said likely amount to ethnic cleansing.
It referenced statements made this week by Russian authorities that claimed that “several thousand” children from a southern region occupied by Moscow had been placed in rest homes and children’s camps amid the Ukrainian counteroffensive. It was reported on Friday by RIA Novosti that Russia’s deputy prime minister made an original remark.
Russian authorities admit to placing children from Russian held areas of Ukraine, who they claimed were orphans, for adoption with Russian families in a possible violation of an international treaty on genocide prevention.
The Ukrainian military accused the pro-Kremlin fighters of violating international humanitarian law by evicting civilians in occupied territories to house officer in their homes. It said the evictions were happening in Rubizhne, in the eastern Luhansk region. It didn’t give any evidence to back up its claim.
— A Russian commander wanted for his role in the downing of a Malaysian airliner over eastern Ukraine in 2014 has been deployed to the front, according to social media posts by pro-Kremlin commentators. Posts by Maksim Fomin said that an unnamed Russian front line unit has been taken over by the author, known as Strelkov.
Girkin has been on an international wanted list over his alleged involvement in the downing of Kuala Lumpur-bound flight MH17, which killed 298 people. A verdict in his trial is expected next month, with him being the most high-profile suspect.
Recently, Girkin’s social media posts have lashed out at Moscow’s battlefield failures. Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency said Sunday it would offer a $100,000 reward to anyone who captures him.
Putin’s Water Crisis: “Who isn’t Supplying Water to Donetsk?” – a reference to an airfield in the Kursk region
He held a glass of champagne after he addressed a group of soldiers receiving awards at the Kremlin.
Putin said “Who is not providing water to Donetsk?” at the awards ceremony. Not supplying water to a city of million is an act of genocide.”
The reference to Kursk appears to reference Russia’s announcement that an airfield in the Kursk region, which neighbors Ukraine, was targeted in a drone attack. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has offered no comment on recent explosions, including in Kursk, which are deep within Russia. Officially, the targets are well beyond the reach of the country’s declared drones.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-12-08-22/h_aea9d9149a72232d60137554cc312f1e
Donetsk bombing by the US During Vladimir Zelensky euclidean visit to Moscow: What the Kremlin has to say about the Ukrainian situation
He claimed that there was no mention of the water situation. “No one has said a word about it anywhere. At a minimum! Complete silence ,” he said.
Local Russian authorities in Donetsk — which Putin claimed to annex in defiance of international law — have reported frequent shelling of the city this week.
Kyiv and its Western allies are “set for a long confrontation with Russia” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s momentous visit to Washington, Moscow said as the war in Ukraine approaches 10 months.
Russia’s foreign ministry condemned what it called the “monstrous crimes” of the “regime in Kyiv,” after US President Joe Biden promised more military support to Ukraine during Zelensky’s summit at the White House on Wednesday.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that no matter how much military support the West provides to the Ukrainian government, “they will achieve nothing.”
Zakharova said that the tasks set within the framework of the special military operation would be fulfilled, taking into account the situation on the ground.
Zelensky gave a historic speech from the US Capitol thanking American aid in fighting Russian aggression, and he asked for more.
Kyiv has repeatedly asked for the US Army’s Patriot – an acronym for Phased Array Tracking Radar for intercept on Target – system, as it is considered one of the most capable long-range air defense systems on the market.
The United States and other countries are following a path to constantly expand the range of their weapons that are supplied to Ukraine, according to the spokesman for the Kremlin. “This does not contribute to a speedy settlement of the situation, on the contrary.”
Peskov added that “there were no real calls for peace.” Zelensky made it clear during his address to the US Congress on Wednesday that we need peace.
Peskov told journalists, however, that Wednesday’s meeting showed the US is waging a proxy war of “indirect fighting” against Russia down “to the last Ukrainian.”
The explosion of a Ukrainian drone shot down by air defenses in Engels: Russia’s response to a Russian attack on its airfield
Three Russian servicemen were killed Monday after a Ukrainian drone was shot down by air defenses as it approached a military airfield in Saratov Oblast, deep inside Russian territory, according to Russian state news agencies, citing the defense ministry.
The incident took place in the western port city of Engels, some 500 miles (more than 800 kilometers) southeast of Moscow, located on the Volga River. It is the second such attempted attack on the city, which houses the Engels-2 military airfield, a strategic bomber airbase, this month.
Law enforcement agencies are now investigating the incident at the airfield, said Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin on Monday. The comments were posted on his Telegram channel after the reports of an explosion in the city.
He stated that there were no emergencies in the residential areas and that no infrastructure was damaged. He said the government would provide assistance to the families of the servicemen.
The Ukrainian Air Force had not claimed responsibility for the drone attack, but it was suggested that it was the consequence of what Russia was doing.
“If the Russians thought that the war would not affect anyone in the deep rear (of Russia) or anywhere else, they were deeply mistaken. We see that such things are happening more and more often, and we hope that this will only benefit Ukrainians.
“This reminds of the events of December 5, so there may be some deja vu, some repetition of this situation, after which [the Russians] launched a massive missile strike,” the spokesperson said. “Therefore, we should be prepared for this, take it into account in our plans and do not forget to proceed to the shelter.”
There was an explosion in the sky in Engels earlier this month. At the time, Gov. Busargin also reassured residents that no civilian infrastructure was damaged and that “information about incidents at military facilities is being checked by law enforcement agencies.”
Mironov, Putin, and Crime in Ukraine: The case of cell phones in the air after the February 20, 2022 Ukrainian resurrection
Mironov’s comments touched a nerve. Hardliners like him think Putin’s September “partial mobilization” of reservists, calling up 300,000 men, failed to go far enough. They want a full mobilization that would put the entire country on a war footing. And they want revenge on Ukraine.
That, at least officially, is how the Russian military is explaining the deadliest known attack on Russian forces in Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. The Defense Ministry blamed the troops themselves, claiming the “main cause” of the attack was the use of cellphones “contrary to the ban.” Russian troops are forbidden from using personal cell phones in the field since their signals have been used to kill other Russian troops.
The death toll was the beginning of it. The Russian Defense Ministry initially said 63 soldiers were killed, then increased that number to 89. Ukraine claimed it was approximately 400. But even Russian pro-war bloggers, an increasingly influential element in how Russian civilians get their information about what really is happening in Ukraine, dismissed the official count, estimating that hundreds of troops had died. The true number is not yet known.
One of those bloggers, Semyon Pegov, who uses the online handle “War Gonzo” and was recently awarded a medal by Vladimir Putin, also rejected the military’s claim about cell phones, calling it a “blatant attempt to smear blame.”
The cell phone explanation was called a “99% lie” by Grey Zone. He said it was most likely an intelligence failure.
Russian lawmakers demanded an investigation into who ordered so many troops to be temporarily quartered in one building. Sergey Mironov, a prominent politician and party leader, said there should be “personal criminal liability” for any officers or other military personnel who made that decision. And, implying the military had a lax approach to the war, he warned, “It’s time to realize it won’t be the same as it used to be.”
Investigators nonetheless said that “the high bar of full and conclusive evidence is not met,” and that regardless, as a head of state, Putin has immunity from prosecution. The Joint Investigation Team said that it had shared its findings with the families of the 298 victims.
On the Makiivka tragedy in Samara, Russia: President Putin’s decision to stay away from a tragedy at the LHC
Many of the soldiers who perished at Makiivka came from Samara, a city on the Volga River in southwestern Russia, and the families of those killed are mourning their loved ones, bringing red carnations to a rare public memorial service, as priests led people in prayer and a choir sang the liturgy for the young men who had recently been sent to the front.
But the finger of blame, so far, is pointed only at military leaders, no higher. President Putin has made no public comment about the Makiivka attack, a strong indication that he intends to remain as far away as possible from an obvious debacle.
Even in this “open” discussion, several commentators have raised the possibility that “informants” may have tipped off the enemy, a go-to conspiracy theory that Russia’s state-run propaganda outlets often promote. Then there is the usual complaint after almost any tragedy in Russia, blaming it on “khalatnost:” negligence.
According to the Public Prosecution Service, there were strong indications that the president of Russia made the decision on the provision of the Berklev to the DPR.
CNN reached out to the Kremlin. Moscow has repeatedly denied any responsibility for the attack, and Russian officials and state media have put out a range of often contradictory explanations for the tragedy.
Dutch investigators concluded that the missile that downed the plane was from a Russian anti-aircraft missile brigade. A Dutch court found two Russians and a Ukrainian guilty of mass murder for their involvement in the downing of the plane.
DPR leaders were in close contact with Russian intelligence service and Kremlin advisers according to investigators.
There is a positive decision being made after the request from the rebels is presented to the president. It is unknown whether the request explicitly mentions a Buk system. A short time later, heavy air-defense systems were delivered, including the Buk that later shot down MH17.”
The Joint Investigation Team said that Russian government officials said the decision on military support rests with the president. The decision is not made until after the person at the summit in France has made his or her decision. President Putin at that time, on 5 and 6 June 2014, was at the D Day commemoration in France.
It cannot be decided who was in charge at the moment of firing the missile, what their mission was and what information they had at the time.
However, members of the Joint Investigation Team said they had insufficient evidence to prosecute Putin or any other suspects and they suspended their 8½-year inquiry into the shooting down that killed all 298 people on board the Boeing 777 flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.
Russia has always denied any responsibility in the downing of the flight over eastern Ukraine, and has refused to cooperate with the international investigation.
“Although we speak of strong indications, the high bar of complete and conclusive evidence is not reached,” Dutch prosecutor Digna van Boetzelaer said, adding that without Russian cooperation, “the investigation has now reached its limit. All leads have been exhausted.”
She said that Putin would have immunity in the Netherlands, if he became head of state. The team played a recording of a phone call where they said Putin could be heard talking about the conflict in eastern Ukraine.
The investigation of the Malaysia Airlines flight 17 shooting down by a surface-to-air missile from a Russian army base in Kursk, Ukraine
Is we disappointed? We think we came more far than we’d ever thought. Would we have like to go further? Of course, yes,” said Andy Kraag of the Dutch police.
“There was disappointment because … they wanted to know why MH17 was shot down,” Kraag said. “We’re clear on what happened but we don’t know why Malaysia Airlines flight 17 was shot down.”
The investigation is being suspended, but phone lines will still be open for witnesses who want to give evidence. If that happens, the inquiry could be reactivated.
The convictions and the court’s finding that the surface-to-air Buk missile came from a Russian military base were seen as a clear indication that Moscow had a role in the tragedy. Russia has always denied involvement. The Russian Foreign Ministry accused the court in November of bowing to pressure from Dutch politicians, prosecutors and the news media.
But the November convictions held that Moscow was in overall control in 2014 over the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, the separatist area of eastern Ukraine where the missile was launched. The Buk missile system came from the Russian military’s 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, based in the city of Kursk.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/08/1155401602/malaysian-airlines-flight-mh17-putin-missiles-investigation
Evidence for war crimes in Ukraine from the end of the R’esab-Dinin-Rosen epoch
The findings may strengthen the case for the human rights court and could also be used by the prosecutors of the International Criminal Court, which is investigating possible war crimes in Ukraine dating back to the start of the conflict.