Should the world respond if Putin fires a nuclear weapon?

Vladimir Putin of Russia declares four Ukrainian provinces part of Russia as the Kremlin seeks to reaffirm its hold over Ukraine

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia signed decrees on Friday to declare four Ukrainian regions part of Russia as the Kremlin seeks to solidify its tenuous hold over Ukrainian territory through a widely denounced illegal annexation.

The Russian leader spoke in the chandeliered St. George’s Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace — the same place where he declared in March 2014 that the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea was part of Russia.

The audience for Mr. Putin’s speech was dominated by members of Parliament and regional governors.

Joe Biden said that Moscow’s actions have no legitimacy and that the US would always honor the borders of Ukraine. The European Union said it “will never” recognize the Kremlin’s “illegal annexation,” and described the move as a “further violation of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Putin still believes that Russia can ‘out-suffer’ the Ukrainians, Europeans, and Americans in the same way that Russians out-suffered Napoleon’s army and Hitler’s Nazis.

He reeled off a litany of Western military actions stretching over centuries — from the British Opium War in China in the 19th century to Allied firebombings of Germany and the Vietnam and Korean Wars.

The United States, he said, was the only country to have used nuclear weapons in war. “By the way, they created a precedent,” Mr. Putin added in an aside.

The chief diplomatic adviser to Zelensky said on CNN that he believed Ukraine had shot down most of the missiles and drones fired at it by Russia in order to retaliate for the bridge explosion.

Russia would like to annex Luhansk and other southern provinces where the fighting continues in eastern Ukraine. Moscow hastily put the plan in motion after a humiliating battlefield defeat drove the Russian Army out of another province, Kharkiv, in early September and the Ukrainian advance appeared to be gathering force.

If President Zelenskyy thought that we should negotiate to stop the punishment, we should. I don’t think he can still do that because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.

There is a celebration on Red Square on Friday. Official ratification of the decrees will happen next week, said Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman.

Do we really want to end the Ukraine war? The frustration of Vladimir Putin and his supporters at the Kremlin, as well as in Russia’s enemies

The moves are related to staged referendums held in occupied territory during a war. Much of the provinces’ civilian populations has fled fighting since the war began in February, and people who did vote sometimes did so at gunpoint.

Cementing Russia’s hold over the two eastern regions, an area collectively known as the Donbas that Mr. Putin considers his primary prize, could allow the Kremlin to declare a victory at a time when hawks in Russia have criticized Russian forces for not doing enough to prevent recent breakneck gains by Ukrainian forces in the south and northeast of the country.

But Mr. Putin nevertheless faces huge hurdles to reassert his control over an increasingly chaotic war, including a recent draft of hundreds of thousands of civilians into military service that has encountered opposition in Russia.

Mr. Putin is expected to deliver a “voluminous” speech, his spokesman said. He will likely downplay his military’s struggles in Ukraine, and the increasing dissent at home. He will probably ignore worldwide denunciations of discredited referendums held in occupied Ukraine on joining Russia, where some were made to vote at gunpoint.

And the US is in agreement. White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters last week that Putin has “shown absolutely zero indication that he’s willing to negotiate” an end to the war, according to Reuters. “Quite the contrary … Everything he is doing on the ground and in the air bespeaks a man who wants to continue to visit violence upon the Ukrainian people,” Kirby said.

Yet Putin’s order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops in September prompted the largest outflow: Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to border states including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia in an attempt to avoid the draft.

Western analysts have noted Russia has grumbled consistently about these deliveries, but been relatively muted in its practical response to the crossing of what, as recently as January, might have been considered “red lines.”

Kortunov understands the public mood regarding the enormous costs and loss of life in the war, even though he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin. Why did we get into this mess? We lost so many people.

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

The rain of fire against Ukrainian civilians on Monday was also chilling, given that it occurred following Putin’s latest nuclear threats and days of debate over whether he might use a tactical nuclear weapon. If he does not, it seems unlikely – given his obliviousness to civilian pain – that any such decision would be motivated by a desire to spare innocents from such a horrific weapon. Kirby noted that there was no evidence that Russia was going to use nukes or that the US was going to change its nuclear posture.

Probing Putin’s resolve in 2019 by launching Nord Stream 2 at the Donetsk peninsula, South of the Arctic Circle

Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.

The German and Danes warships were sent to secure the area after patches of the sea were discovered.

Several leaks at the surface are similar to a boiling cauldron and together release industrial quantities of toxic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Brennan concluded that the most likely culprit for the incident was Russia, and that he was trying to send a signal to Europe that Russia can reach beyond its borders. So who knows what he might be planning next.”

Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.

“I think this is a pretty grim picture, in part because Putin didn’t feel deterred in the first place,” Hill said. “The other thing is that Putin also feels that he has a lot of support from the rest of the world, including from China … it may very well take countries like China, pushing Russia, for there to be any break in Putin’s resolve.”

It was 2019. And the successful TV comedian turned commander in chief had traveled to Paris for a summit to negotiate a peace deal with Putin. Zelensky walked away with few concessions despite the doubts of many.

When Putin pitches France and Germany, he is expected to say that they need to end this war and protect their territories at all costs.

The likelihood of Putin using a nuclear weapon is low according to Alperovitch. But it can’t be dismissed. He paints this possible scenario: “If he does use it, I think he’s going to do a demonstration strike in a remote area, perhaps over the Black Sea, in the hopes that the West would somehow pressure Kyiv to come to the negotiations.”

The timing would have been worse. Putin lost Lyman despite proclaiming that the Donetsk region had been annexed by Russia.

A day earlier, two powerful Putin supporters railed against the Kremlin and called for using harsher fighting methods because Lyman had fallen just as Moscow was declaring that the illegally annexed region it lies in would be Russian forever.

The soldiers said on the broadcast that they were forced to retreat because they were fighting with NATO soldiers.

“These are no longer toys here. They are part of a systematic and clear offensive by the army and NATO forces,” the unnamed deputy commander of one Russian battalion told the show’s war correspondent, Evgeny Poddubny. The soldier claimed his unit was intercepting conversations by other soldiers on their radios, not Ukrainians.

The broadcast seemed intended to convince Russians who have doubts about the war or feel anger over plans to call up as many as 300,000 civilians that any hardships they bear are to be blamed on a West that is bent on destroying Russia at all costs.

The idea that Russia is fighting a broader campaign was repeated in an interview with Aleksandr Dugin, a far-right thinker whose daughter, also a prominent nationalist commentator, was killed by a car bomb in August.

Both European and Russian leaders accused the Western countries of sabotage after the underwater explosions of the gas line, which runs from Russia to the German-occupied province of North Sea.

He said that the West had accused them of blowing up the gas pipe. “We must understand the geopolitical confrontation, the war, our war with the West on the scale and extent on which it is unfolding. In other words, we must join this battle with a mortal enemy who does not hesitate to use any means, including exploding gas pipelines.”

At least for now, the campaign may be working. A senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said many Russians feel threatened by the West.

At home, Putin is also facing growing criticism from Russians on both the left and the right, who are taking considerable risks given the draconian penalties they can face for speaking out against his “special military operation” in Ukraine.

Many people predicted a short war between Russia and Ukraine in February. Eight months on, each new twist points toward escalation and the notion this conflict still has a long way to go. “The Ukrainians are determined to take back all of Ukraine. This is the real eye opener for me, said retired US Army Gen. David Petraeus. He said that the current offensive has Ukrainians thinking they might be able to drive out the Russian troops.

The Kremlin reflected the disarray of its forces on the ground, where territory was rapidly changing hands, acknowledging that it did not yet know what new borders Russia would claim in southern Ukraine. “In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Monday.

Analysts inside and outside the government are questioning how useful such arms would be in furthering Mr. Putin’s goals, since they were delivered in the back of a truck.

The primary utility, many U.S. officials say, would be as part of a last-ditch effort by Mr. Putin to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive, by threatening to make parts of Ukraine uninhabitable. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe some of the most sensitive discussions inside the administration.

The Kremlin, reticent so far to escalate the war beyond Ukraine, could also aim to directly disrupt or deter foreign military assistance to Kyiv. Attacking NATO satellites or other RQ-21 aircraft can be used to temporarily or permanently cripple them. To inflict domestic costs on Kyiv’s supporters, Russia could also conduct cyberattacks against Europe or the United States, targeting critical infrastructure like energy, transportation and communications systems. The war then would no longer be confined to the borders of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government seems to be taking him at his word. According to a top adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the country’s intelligence agencies believe there is a “very high” risk that Russia might use so-called tactical nuclear weapons, less powerful cousins of conventional nuclear weapons that are designed to be used on the battlefield.

The Russian Revolution During World War II: Peter Bergen, the Russians, and the U.S. President Donald Trump (aka Trump) Analyses

Editor’s Note: Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. More opinions on CNN are available.

He claims that his rationale for the war in Ukrainian is based on the fact that Russia has historically always been part of the Soviet Union.

When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, they planned to install a puppet government and get out of the country as soon as it was feasible, as explained in a recent, authoritative book about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, “Afghan Crucible” by historian Elisabeth Leake.

During the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, the US was hesitant to increase its support for the Afghan resistance fearing a conflict with the Soviet Union. It took until 1986 for the CIA to arm the Afghans with highly effective anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, which ended the Soviets’ total air superiority, eventually forcing them to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.

In addition to the Russian offensive I fear we will see more attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with missiles and rockets as well as with Iranian- provided drones, which underscores the importance of doing all that we can to further constrain the Russian arms industries.

The Russians have done a good job of figuring out the threat. “The Russians have seemingly adapted to the presence of HIMARs [American-supplied artillery] on the battlefield by pulling their big ammo depots back outside of the range,” Chris Dougherty, a senior fellow for the Defense Program and co-head of the Gaming Lab at the Center for New American Security in Washington, told me in an interview.

Two years earlier, the Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan, which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The Romanov monarchy was weakened by the loss of the Russian Federation in 1905. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. Subsequently, much of the Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.

On February 22 – just two days before Russia’s invasion – former US President Donald Trump, who has always fawned over Putin, publicly said that the Russian autocrat was “genius” and “savvy” for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent and moving his troops there in a prelude to full-blown invasion.

Its invasion in February managed to startle in every way. To the people who believed Moscow was sane to not try such a big undertaking. There were people who thought the Russian military would come across a land of 40 million people and clean up in 10 days. And to those who felt they had the technical and intelligence prowess to do more than just randomly bombard civilian areas with ageing artillery; that the Kremlin’s military had evolved from the 90s levelling of Grozny in Chechnya.

Putin is a tragic example of how the delusions and illusions of one individual can be allowed to shape events without any challenge. Autocrats who put their cronies into key positions, control the media to crowd out discordant voices … are able to command their subordinates to follow the most foolish orders.”

The economic damage has already put an end to Putin’s two-decades strong reputation for providing “stability” — once a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the collapse of the USSR.

Ukraine’s worst attacks: air raids, missile fires, and rescue workers in the Salvo (Kuzakhstan) on Monday

There were at least four detonations in the Ukrainian capital on Monday. An adviser to the minister of internal affairs of Ukraine claims that a playground was hit by a rocket or missile and that a crater was found in the ground near the site.

The Ukrainian military said that at least 84 cruise missiles were fired by Russia towards Ukraine on Monday. Twenty-four Russian attack drones were also used in the salvo, 13 of which were destroyed.

These attacks began at the start of the war, and have only intensified in scope since the Ukrainians attacked a bridge close to Putin’s heart.

Putin said in a brief television appearance that it was impossible to leave such crimes unanswered. The responses from Russia will correspond to the level of threat to the Russian Federation if there are attempts to carry out terrorist attacks on our territory.

The underground stations of the subway were used to serve as a shelter for several hours. Rescue workers worked to get people out of the rubble after the air raids were lifted at midday.

According to the Prime Minister, a total of 11crucial infrastructure facilities had been damaged in eight regions.

The Ukrainian State Emergency Services said Monday that the supply of electricity had been cut in several areas. Electricity was “partially disrupted” in the rest of the country.

Kiev Attacks, Security Council Reports, and U.S. Response to the Summit on Kiev Observed by NATO and the Security Council

The Security Council met on Monday and Putin said the people behind the explosions on the bridge are Ukrainian special services.

Sergey Aksyonov said he had good news Monday, which he claimed meant that Russia’s approach to its special military operation in Ukraine had changed.

He said that if the actions to destroy the enemy infrastructure had been taken daily, the Kyiv regime would have been defeated in May.

The EU Foreign Policy Chief said that additional military support from the EU is on its way.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the attacks “another unacceptable escalation of the war and, as always, civilians are paying the highest price.”

The G7 group of nations will hold an emergency meeting via video conference on Tuesday, the office of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz confirmed to CNN, and Zelensky said on Twitter that he would address that meeting.

The Attacks on Kiev’s Energy Infrastructure During the Second World War: CNN’s Michael Bociurkiw, Odesa, Ukraine

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.

There were hits near the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv and just a short walk away from the Presidential Office Building, according to Unverified video on social media. Five people were killed as a result of strikes on the capital, according to Ukrainian officials.

As of midday local time, the area around my office in Odesa remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens, with reports that three missiles and five kamikaze drones were shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people have been killed.

The Energy Minister of Ukraine told CNN that over 30% of the energy infrastructure there was hit by Russian missiles on Monday and Tuesday. This was the first time since the start of the war that Russia has targeted the energy infrastructure, the minister said.

Some media outlets moved to underground bomb shelters in scenes reminiscent of the early days of the war when Russian forces were near the capital. In one metro station serving as a shelter, large numbers of people took cover on platforms as a small group sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

With many asylum seekers coming back, the attacks may cause another blow to business confidence.

Putin During the 2018 Ukrainian Bridge Explosion: What Do We Need to Know to Protect Russia’s Highest Tech Arms? A Counterexample to Putin’s Cold War in Ukraine

It seems like dictators are fond of hardwiring newly claimed territory with huge infrastructure projects. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The road bridge has been delayed for about two years.

The explosion caused a hilarious reaction from Ukrainians, lighting up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

Putin was consumed by pride and self-interest so he never sat still. He responded in the only way he knows how, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that probably comes natural to a former KGB operative.

Facing increasing criticism at home, as well as on state-controlled television, has put Putin on thin ice.

Petraeus: Well, Putin recently made General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, the commander of the war in Ukraine, presumably to ensure that the Russian Military and Ministry of Defense are doing all that they can to generate additional forces for the battlefield in Ukraine. And Russia has been seeking additional arms, ammunition, and weapons systems from other countries – such as Iran and North Korea – to make up for the shortfalls in production of Russia’s military industries that are constrained by export controls.

What is crucially important now is for Washington and other allies to use urgent telephone diplomacy to urge China and India – which presumably still have some leverage over Putin – to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons.

If the West wants to survive against a man who tends to exploit divisions, they must show unity and resolve. Western governments also need to realize that rhetoric and sanctions have little if no impact on Putin’s actions. They need to continue to arm Ukrainians and provide urgent training, even if it means sending military experts closer to the battlefield to speed up the integration of high technology weapons.

It is necessary for high tech defense systems to protect the country’s energy infrastructure. The need to protect heating systems is crucial during the winter season.

Russian-Russian War on Crimea and the American-Ukrainian War, as witnessed by CNN’s Kate Bolduan and John Kirby

The time has come for the West to get Russia to open up and allow trade with it, but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states need to be pressured to come on board.

The city dwellers who were turned into air raid shelters after the war in the subways have been able to return to their lives, but the attacks have taken away the semblance of a normal life.

But the targets on Monday also had little military value and, if anything, served to reflect Putin’s need to find new targets because of his inability to inflict defeats on Ukraine on the battlefield.

The bombing of power installations appeared to be an indication of what the Russian President could cause as winter sets in, even with his forces retreating in the face of Ukrainian troops.

The attack on civilians, which killed at least 14 people, also gave new attention to what steps the US and its allies can take to respond, after sending billions of dollars of arms and kits to Ukraine in an effective proxy war with Moscow.

US President Joe Biden is expected to announce an additional $1.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s expected visit to the White House. The boost in aid is expected to be topped by the Patriot missile defense systems, according to a US official.

John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, suggested Washington was looking favorably on Ukraine’s requests and was in touch with the government in Kyiv almost every day. “We do the best we can in subsequent packages to meet those needs,” he told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.

Kirby couldn’t say whether Putin was officially shifting his strategy from a losing battle to a campaign to destroyUkrainian cities and infrastructure, though he said that it was already in the works.

It was something they were planning for a long time. Now that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea bridge might have accelerated some of their planning,” Kirby said.

An offensive on civilians would be consistent with the work of the new Russian general in charge of the war, who has served in Syria and Chechnya. In both places, Russia indiscriminately bombarded civilian areas and razed built-up districts and infrastructure and is accused of committing serious human rights violations.

But French President Emmanuel Macron underscored Western concerns that Monday’s rush-hour attacks in Ukraine could be the prelude to another pivot in the conflict.

Retired officer. Col Alexander Vindman, former director for European Affairs on the National Security Council, said that by attacking targets designed to hurt Ukrainian morale and energy infrastructure, Putin was sending a message about how he will prosecute the war in the coming months.

If we could have modern equipment, we would be able to shoot down drones and missiles and not kill people.

If a long campaign by Putin against civilians was to go on for a long time, it would break Ukrainian optimism, and possibly open the door to a new wave of refugees in Western Europe.

The lesson of this war is that everything Putin has done to fractured a nation, he has only strengthened and united it.

Olena Gnes, a mother of three who is documenting the war on her website, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Monday that she was angry at the return of fear and violence to the lives of Ukrainians.

She said that this was just another terror that could be used to scare people, to show that he is still a bloody tyrant, and look what fireworks we can arrange.

The invasion has grown into the biggest land war in Europe since World War II, forcing millions of Ukrainians from their homes, decimating the Ukrainian economy and killing thousands of civilians.

The war is entering a new phase, not for the first time. Keir Giles stated that this is the third, fourth, or fifth war they have been observing.

Giles said that theUkraine victory is now much more plausible, thanks to what seemed a distant prospect. The response from Russia is likely to get much worse.

Ukrainian troops raised the country’s flag in Vysokopillya, southern Kherson region, last month. Ukrainian officials say they’ve freed hundreds of settlements.

Russian troops have left the area around the large city of Kharkiv, as well as other parts of the Kherson region. Attacks against air force bases deep inside Russia are a problem for Putin. He put a lot of the country on security alert recently and new signs emerged that Russian officials are increasing their border defense positions.

Since the end of the summer, the ground war in eastern and southern Ukraine has been defined by a series of decisive counter-attacks that have pushed back Russian forces and crystallized Western optimism that Kyiv can win the war.

“The Russians are playing for the whistle – (hoping to) avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in,” Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” told CNN.

If they are able to get to Christmas with the frontline looking exactly the same, it will be a huge success for the Russians.

A significant blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be looking to improve on the gains it has made before temperatures plummet on the battlefield.

“There are so many reasons why there is an incentive for Ukraine to get things done quickly,” Giles said. There is always going to be a test of resilience for Ukraine and its Western backers when energy infrastructure and power in Europe are destroyed in the winter.

Recent days have meanwhile shown that sites beyond the current theater of ground fighting are far from immune to attacks. It remains unclear exactly how the Kerch bridge bombing was carried out – and Kyiv has not claimed responsibility – but the fact that a target so deep in Russian-held territory could be successfully hit hinted at a serious Ukrainian threat towards key Russian assets.

Ukraine’s national electricity company, Ukrenergo, says it has stabilized the power supply to Kyiv and central regions of Ukraine after much of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted by Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday. But Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that “there is a lot of work to do” to fix damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to reduce their energy usage during peak hours.

Moscow’s War of Independence: State of the Art and Prospects for International Security and Strategic Cooperation (VISACOM/NASS)

Moscow’s conventional forces are struggling to be prepared, and the exception of its nuclear forces, is running out of new cards to play. The use of nuclear force is less likely since China and India joined the West in open statements against it.

The Russian matters have not improved since then. The British Defense Ministry reported that the Russian military is hampered by severe shortages of weapons and skilled personnel.

In its daily update on the war, the I SW states that the strikes wasted some of Russia’s remaining precision weapons against civilian targets as opposed to military targets.

Justin Bronk, a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), agreed with that assessment, telling CNN that, “Ukrainian interception success rates against Russian cruise missiles have risen significantly since the start of the invasion in February.”

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

There is some help for Putin on the way. Concerns about deepened military cooperation between the close allies were raised when President Alexander Lukashenko announced that the two countries would deploy a joint regional group of troops. Belarus has been complaining of alleged Ukrainian threats to its security in recent days, which observers say could be a prelude to some level of involvement.

“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.

Petraeus: That is the most important factor. Ukrainians sees the ongoing conflict as their War of Independence, and they have responded accordingly. President Zelensky has made no secret of the fact that his country needs all of its citizens to be involved in the fight for survival.

The secretary general of NATO said on Tuesday that more systems were needed to better stop missile attacks.

The IRIS-T system which arrived this week from Germany and NASAMS from the US are badly needed in Ukranian. , Bronk said.

The Burning of Bridges: How Putin Will Get His Presidency in a War with Ukraine, and Why Ukraine Needs to Stay in Ukraine

That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are, however, unlikely to become a capable fighting force. There are signs of problems among soldiers in garrisons.

Current and former members of the national security community attended an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brought together people to look at the big picture of global security.

Kevin McCarthy, a potential speaker of the House, has warned thatUkraine should not expect a “blank check” from the new House. Even though Ukraine still has strong Republican support in the Senate, it’s this kind of shifting political dynamic that appears to inform Kremlin perceptions about how long US resolve will last in a conflict on which Putin’s political survival may well depend.

A top Ukrainian official told the conference that the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

According to Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs an intelligence project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, the Russian leader is not interested in finding a solution to the conflict. He says it’s the opposite. “Putin remembers when an obstacle is going to befall him,” said Kolbe. There are a number of tricks that he can pull out to try and undermine the spirits of people in the West.

This annexation is a huge deal. Putin is effectively betting his presidency on staying in Ukraine, says Dmitri Alperovitch, who runs the think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator.

“That is a metaphor for the burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”

Part of the difficulty of making wartime assessments is that the war has gone through different phases, with one side and then the other having an advantage. The Ukrainians defeated the Russians in the battle for Kyiv, only to see Russia grind forward during the brutal fighting in the Donbas over the summer.

Noisily, but that may be all. The latest statements from the Russian President are looked at by Kremlin watchers to see if US weapons deliveries improveUkraine’s position. The latest part of the conflict leads to an increase of the conflict and it doesn’t bode well for the country, said the Kremlin spokesman.

At the Georgia conference, in a ballroom filled with experienced national security types, no one suggested the war was near an end. The former CIA official, Paul Kolbe, doesn’t think there is a chance of talks in the near term.

The war started with a Russian invasion and has gotten more intense ever since. Greg Myre is an NPR National Security Correspondent. gregmyre is a fan.

U.S. and Russian Truncation, the Challenges of Macron and the European Commission: The Case for an End of the Emmanuel Macron War?

Beyond that, I believe we will see Ukrainian forces that are much more capable than the Russians at achieving the kind of combined arms effects that I described earlier and that thus enable much more effective offensive operations and can unhinge some of the Russian defenses. We may not be able to see all this until the spring or summer, because of the amount of time needed for Ukrainian forces to receive and train on the western tanks and other systems.

Editor’s Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He was a correspondent for CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

This ability to keep going depends on a variety of variables, from the availability of vital energy supplies for winter to popular will across a broad range of nations.

In the early hours of Friday in Brussels, European Union powers agreed a roadmap to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies at a whim.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Still, divisions remain, with Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, skeptical of any price caps. Energy ministers have to talk with Germany in order to iron out details of the caps that could encourage higher consumption.

All of these divisions are a part of Putin’s dream. Being central to achieving success from the Russians viewpoint is Manifold forces in Europe, which are failing to agree on essentials.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. The conference call for Wednesday was scheduled by the French and German leaders to try and reach some agreement.

Italy’s new prime minister reveals what the West has to say about the crisis in the middle of a recession: an audio clip from Berlusconi vs. Salvini

A new government has taken power in Italy. Italy’s first woman prime minister tried to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

Berlusconi, in a secretly recorded audio tape, said he’d returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine, adding that “I knew him as a peaceful and sensible person,” in the LaPresse audio clip.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

At the same time, Poland and Hungary were both against liberal policies of the EU that seemed to reduce their influence. Hungary’s populist leader, Viktor Orban, sympathizes with Russia, according to Poland.

Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just won’t do it.”

Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.

Mia Jacob, the caucus chair, issued a statement “clarifying” her remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called his counterpart in Ukranian to renew America’s support.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

At the same time, the West is turning up the pressure on Russia. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.

The Russian production of hypersonic missiles ceased due to lack of necessary semi-conductors, according to the report. Plants that make anti-aircraft systems have stopped producing them, as Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

On the day of the report, the US said it had taken all property of Yury Orekhov and his agencies responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end- users.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

War and Security in the Cold War: Russia’s Response to the Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 Disaster, and Implications for Wheat Markets in Africa

Editor’s Note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The opinions expressed in this commentary are of her own. More opinions on CNN.

There’s “strong indication” Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the go-ahead to supply anti-aircraft weapons to separatists in Ukraine, according to the international team investigating the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014.

The Iran deal has attracted the attention of Iran’s rivals in the Middle East, NATO members, and nations that are interested in preventing Iran from building an atomic bomb because of the strengthened relationship between Moscow and Tehran.

The historian Yuval Noah Harari has argued that no less than the direction of human history is at stake, because a victory by Russia would reopen the door to wars of aggression, to invasions of one country by another, something that since the Second World War most nations had come to reject as categorically unacceptable.

For that reason, Ukraine received massive support from the West, led by the United States. New applications for membership from countries that were committed to neutrality was brought about by the war in Ukraine. It also helped reaffirm the interest of many in eastern European states – former Soviet satellites – of orienting their future toward Europe and the West.

There are repercussions to everything that happens far from the battlefields. When oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, decided last month to slash production, the US accused the Saudis of helping Russia fund the war by boosting its oil revenues. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Weapons supplies to Ukraine have become a point of tension between Israel and the Ukranian government. Israel refused to provide the systems that Ukraine asked for, citing its own strategic concerns.

A UN and Turkey-brokered agreement allowed Ukraine’s maritime corridors to reopen, but this week Moscow temporarily suspended that agreement after Russian Navy ships were struck at the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Putin’s announcement was immediately followed by a surge in wheat prices on global commodity markets. Those prices partly determine how much people pay for bread in Africa and across the planet.

Everyone is being affected by the war in Ukraine. Fuel prices have gone up because of the conflict and caused a global explosion of inflation.

Higher prices can affect a lot of things. They come with a political punch when they have powerful momentum. Inflation, worsened by the war, has put incumbent political leaders on the defensive in countless countries.

The Kremlin and the End of the War: What Does Military Intelligence Really Want to Say About the War in Ukraine? Comment on a Diplomacy between the Pentagon and the Pentagon

And it’s not all on the fringes. Kevin McCarthy, Republican leader and a candidate to be speaker of the House, suggested that the GOP might reduce aid to Ukraine. Progressive Democrats released and withdrew a letter calling for negotiations. Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official, said that they were all bringing a big smile to Putin.

The Chairman of the Joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley led a push to get a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine during his conversations about the war.

The administration is considering whether the recent gains on the battlefield should prompt a renewed effort to seek a negotiated end to the fighting.

The comments left administration officials unsurprised – given Milley’s advocacy for the position internally – but also raised concerned among some about the administration appearing divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

While some Biden officials are more open to exploring what diplomacy may look like, sources tell CNN most of the top diplomatic and national security officials are wary of giving Russian President Vladimir Putin any sort of leverage at the negotiating table and believe Ukrainians must determine when to hold talks, not the US.

Officials said that Milley has made it clear that he doesn’t want a Ukrainian capitulation but rather that he believes now is the best time to end the war since it will lead to more bloodshed and destruction.

But that view is not widely held across the administration. One official explained that the State Department is on the opposite side of the pole from Milley. That dynamic has led to a unique situation where military brass are more fervently pushing for diplomacy than US diplomats.

Milley’s position comes as the US military has dug deep into US weapons stockpiles to support the Ukrainians and is currently scouring the globe for materials to support Ukraine heading into winter – such as heaters and generators – which has raised concerns about how long this war can be sustained, officials said.

A US official said the US would buy 100,000 rounds of South Korean weapon from them, as part of efforts to find weapons for the battles in Ukraine. 100,000 howitzer rounds will be purchased by the US, which will be delivered to Ukraine through the US.

The Crimes of the Khmer Rouge. Vladimir Putin’s legacy in Russia and the role of the NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg

Ned Price wouldn’t say if the State Department agrees with Milley’s position. Instead, Price deflected to a position that US officials have often made in recent months: the US sides with Zelensky who has said that a diplomatic solution is needed.

In a recent visit to Ukraine, Sullivan said that the US would be with the country for as long as needed. “There will be no wavering, no flagging, no flinching in our support as we go forward.”

Now Poland is facing the repercussions from these attacks – and it’s not the only bordering country. Russian rockets have also knocked out power across neighboring Moldova, which is not a NATO member, and therefore attracted considerably less attention than the Polish incident.

Whatever the exact circumstances of the missile, one thing is clear. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg believes that Russia bears ultimate responsibility for the illegal war it is carrying out against Ukraine.

The force planted mines in large areas in Kherson, just like the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia over three decades ago. Indeed, Cambodian de-mining experts have even been called in to assist with the herculean task facing Ukraine in 2022. At the same time, Russian armies have also left behind evidence of unspeakable atrocities and torture, also reminiscent of the Khmer Rouge.

A growing number of Russian soldiers are disobeying their commands and refusing to fight. The UK Defense Ministry believes that Russian troops could shoot retreating or deserting soldiers.

Indeed a hotline and Telegram channel, launched as a Ukrainian military intelligence project called “I want to live,” designed to assist Russian soldiers eager to defect, has taken off, reportedly booking some 3,500 calls in its first two months of activity.

Putin is becoming isolated on the world stage. He was the only head of state to stay away from a session of the G20, which Zelensky dubbed the “G19.” Though Putin once lusted after a return to the G7 (known as the G8 before he was ousted after his seizure of Crimea), inclusion now seems but a distant dream. Russia’s sudden ban on 100 Canadians, including Canadian-American Jim Carrey, from entering the country only made the comparison with North Korea more striking.

The leader of the Russian media, who fled in March, tells me that like many of his countrymen, he may never be able to return to his homeland and that he is prepared to accept this reality.

The Status of the Russian-Russian War in the Light of the G20 Summit: Implications of Moscow’s War on the Security of the Mideast

Rumbling in the background is the West’s attempt to diversify away from Russian oil and natural gas in an effort to deprive the country of material resources to pursue this war. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission told the G20 that they understood and learned that it was an unsustainable dependency and needed reliable and forward-looking connections.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. There was a rumor that the long-stalled French- German project for a next-generation jet fighter at the center of the Future Combat Air System was beginning to move forward.

The Russian leader may only be able to win if a truce or negotiations take place at the moment.

Russia will benefit the most from being the most disadvantaged now, and then start renewing the war. So all a truce buys you is a continuation of war. It wouldn’t resolve the underlying issues of the war.

Experts say that Russia is starting to rearm. “Ammunition availability” was one of the “most determinative aspects of this war,” said Kofman. “If you burn through 9 million rounds, you cannot make them in a month. So the issue is what is the ammunition production rate and what can be mobilized?” he added.

In some of the factories in Russia that make the munitions, the production has gone from two to three a day, according to information cited by Kofman. This suggests that “they have the component parts or otherwise they wouldn’t be going to double and triple shifts,” he said.

“We never refused, it was the Ukrainian leadership that refused itself to conduct negotiations … sooner or later any party to the conflict will sit down and negotiate and the sooner those opposing us realize it, the better,” he said.

Russian leaders wanted action to be quicker because the US military had stated that it would take as long as until May for the Russian military to regenerate enough power. The US now sees it as likely that Russian forces are moving before they are ready due to political pressure from the Kremlin, the senior US military official told CNN.

They pulled back from the 80 kilometer range, which is basically any big command post. And in many cases, just inside Russian territory – which Ukraine has given Washington assurances it would not target with rocket systems supplied by the US.

And, he added, the Russians are “willing to trade mobilized soldiers and artillery shells.” NATO and the Western allies will not be willing to continue those trades over time, according to the Russians. And eventually it’ll push them to negotiate. I think that is Putin’s bet.

But at some point, they’ll also get tired of this war, he added. And the Russian mindset may change into a “we may not have everything we wanted” mindset. We will have a large amount of the Donbas and will annex part of it into Russia. And I think that’s kind of their bet right now.”

The West can rebuild rapidly diminishing arsenals that have been drained by the shipment of materiel to Ukraine, even if there is a truce.

But were the war to resume months or years from now, there’s a real question as to whether the US and its allies would be prepared to return to a conflict that many are beginning to wish was already over.

Ukraine’s Special Military Operation: Russia’s Nuclear Warfare, the Great War, and the Mismanagement of the Nuclear Forces

KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict.

In his televised meeting with the members of his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as a significant result for Russia and noted that the Sea of Azov has become Russians’ internal sea. In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.

Russian troops were unable to conquer the cities of Kyiv and Kharkiv. The only major city that was seized by Russia was Kherson. The city has been bombarded by Russian forces since they retreated.

He said that if it doesn’t use it first, then it won’t be the second to use it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory.

Putin rejected Western criticism that his previous nuclear weapons comments amounted to saber-rattling, claiming they were “not a factor provoking an escalation of conflicts, but a factor of deterrence.”

“We haven’t gone mad. “We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are,” Putin said. He said that they are more advanced and state of the art than other nuclear power has.

The Russian leader didn’t address Russia’s setbacks on the battlefield or its attempts to take over seized regions, but he did acknowledge difficulties with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.

There are new concrete anti-tank barriers known as “dragon’s teeth” in open fields, in theKursk region borderingUkraine. On Tuesday, the governor had said a fire broke out at an airport in the region after a drone strike. In neighboring Belgorod, workers were expanding anti-tank barriers and officials were organizing “self-defense units.” The governor of Belgorod said on Wednesday that Russia’s air defense had shot down incoming rockets from cross-border attacks.

Moscow responded with strikes by artillery, multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, worsening damage to the power grid. The temperatures in the eastern areas where the Ukrenergo is making repairs dropped to as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius.

At his meeting, Putin talked about how he ordered 300,000 reservists to be sent to shore up the forces that were being used in Ukraine. So far, only about 150,000 have been deployed to combat zones and the rest are still undergoing training. Addressing speculation that the Kremlin could be preparing another mobilization, Putin said: “There is no need for the Defense Ministry and the country to do that.”

CNN reported that the US was finalizing plans to send the system toUkraine, which got the Russian embassy warning of unpredictable consequences.

Zakharova said that many experts, including those overseas, questioned the rationality of the step, which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the risk of directly dragging the US army into combat.

The Patriot system is expensive and complicated and requires intensive training for the multiple people it takes to operate it, but could help the country guard against Russian attacks that have left millions without power.

Asked Thursday about Russian warnings that the Patriot system would be “provocative,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said those comments would not influence US aid to Ukraine.

It is ironic and very telling that officials from a country that attacked its neighbor in an illegal and Unprovoked invasion would use words like provocative to describe a defense system meant to save lives and protect civilians.

The Russian Defense Ministry shared a video of the installation of the intercontinental missile into a silo in Kaluga, which was seen by the commander of the Kozelsky missile formation.

Appearing this week on Russian state TV, Commander Alexander Khodakovsky of the Russian militia in the Donetsk region suggested Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.

The Russian Patriot Missiles What Matters: Israel’s Right to Protect Himself Against Russian Attacks and the Eviction of an Old Gun

Unlike smaller air defense systems, Patriot missile batteries need much larger crews, requiring dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The training for the missile batteries is normally done in a few months but now will be done under the threat of aerial attacks from Russia.

The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as some aircraft. It can shoot down missiles and aircraft that are far from their intended targets.

Zelensky was quoted in a Thursday interview with The Economist saying that he doesn’t agree with US Secretary of State Antony Bohren’s idea that Ukraine should try to recover land that has been seized by Russia.

“We don’t have NATO troops on the ground. NATO planes can’t be seen in the air over Ukraine. But we are supporting Ukraine in their right to defend themselves,” he said.

It was an old gun. CNN’s Ellie Kaufman and Liebermann reported earlier this week on a US military official who says Russian forces have had to resort to 40-year-old artillery ammunition as their supplies of new ammo are “rapidly dwindling.”

“You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it’s gonna fire or when it lands that it’s gonna explode,” said the official, speaking to reporters.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/15/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-what-matters/index.html

The war in the trenches: How Vladimir Zelensky went to war with Putin and his partner, Michael Popow

In the trenches. There is growing concern about Russia assembling troops again, which is why Will Ripley filed a video report about trenches being built along the Ukrainian-Belarus border. Ripley talks to a sewing machine repairman turned tank driver.

The West has been unified unexpectedly. Europe and the US have spoken the same script on Ukrainian issues, despite being divided over Iraq, fractured over Syria and unwilling to spend 2% of GDP on security. Washington may have been more warier at times and there have been outliers like Hungary. The shift is towards unity. That is quite a surprise.

Something else that has gone well from the Kremlin’s point of view is the country’s propaganda machine. It helped convince many Russians that the war was not going disastrously wrong, and that it was the West that was forcing Russia to fight. The Russian economy has not been derailed by sanctions the way the West hoped, and a lot of the world hasn’t turned its back on Russia.

It was very tiring and very hard to report. I was trying to get beyond what we already know about Putin and get to some of the nuances surrounding him and his decision to go to war. It is really hard, because it’s something that so few people know for sure. It took a long time and a lot of conversations.

In Paris at the time, I witnessed how Zelensky pulled up to the Élysée Palace in a modest Renault, while Putin motored in with an ostentatious armored limousine. (The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, hugged Putin but chose only to shake hands with Zelensky).

Zelensky’s physical appearance in Washington is surely designed to remind Republicans of the urgency of Ukraine’s fight and how a defeat for Kyiv would lead Moscow’s nuclear-backed brutality right to the doorstep of NATO, and then likely drag the US into a boots-on-the ground war with Russia.

Zelensky achieved the thing that Putin wanted to achieve, but failed to achieve, by taking a patriotic war in order to distract from his failures at home. According to New York-based analyst Michael Popow, Putin was hurt by the fact that a comedian would show up.

“After the full-scale invasion, once he got into a position of being bullied by someone like Vladimir Putin he knew exactly what he needed to do because it was just his gut feeling,” Yevhen Hlibovytsky, former political journalist and founder of the Kyiv-based think tank and consultancy, pro.mova, told me.

This, after all, is the leader who when offered evacuation by the US as Russia launched its full-scale invasion, quipped: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Zelensky was able to stand up to Trump because he was also the one who tried to bamboozle the politician in the quid pro quo scandal.

Amid the fog of war, it all seems a long, long way since the heady campaign celebration in a repurposed Kyiv nightclub where a fresh-faced Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory. While standing on the stage, he looked in a state of disbelief at what he had just accomplished.

His ratings seem to have been turned around by the war. Zelensky’s approval jumped to almost 100% just days after the invasion, and remain high to this day. Zelensky was rated highly by Americans for his handling of international affairs, compared to US President Joe Biden.

His bubble includes many people from his previous professional life as a TV comedian in the theatrical group Kvartal 95. In the midst of the war, a press conference was held on the platform of a metro station with good lighting and camera angles to emphasize a wartime setting.

As for his skills as comforter in chief, I remember the times when he spoke on television, such as during the air raid sirens and explosions in Lviv.

Zelensky is a smart woman, not a politician: her influence on international opinion and geopolitics may be waning

Zelensky wears a hoodie and T-shirts that are 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465, 888-282-0465 888-282-0465 888-282-0465

“He is probably more comfortable than Putin on camera, too, both as an actor and as a digital native,” she added. “I believe both of them want to come across as relatable, not aloof or untouchable, although Zelensky is definitely doing a better job balancing authority with accessibility.”

Zelenska has shown that she can be effective in international fora with her smarts and style. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. Zelenska did not make it onto the cover of Time but a reference was given to her in the supporting text.

Zelensky has strong support at his back, but there are signs that his international influence may be waning. For example, last week, in what analysts called a pivotal moment in geopolitics, the G7 imposed a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude – despite pleas from Zelensky that it should have been set at $30 in order to inflict more pain on the Kremlin.

As Zelensky said in a recent nightly video address: “No matter what the aggressor intends to do, when the world is truly united, it is then the world, not the aggressor, determines how events develop.”

A US official has told Phil Mattingly that there will be a package of enhanced security assistance for the country that Biden will announce during his visit. Washington also plans to send Ukraine precision bomb kits to convert less sophisticated munitions into “smart bombs” that could help it target Russian defensive lines, sources told CNN’s Pentagon team. Zelensky’s visit also comes as Congress is poised to sign off on another $45 billion in aid for Ukraine and NATO allies, deepening the commitment that has helped Kyiv’s forces inflict an unexpectedly bloody price on Putin’s forces.

Zelensky compares Russia’s resistance to Britain’s defiance of the Nazis during World War II, and his arrival in the US capital will sharpen the parallels.

His visit is under heightened security. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wouldn’t even confirm the early reports that she’d welcome Zelensky to the US Capitol in an unexpected coda to her speakership, saying on Tuesday evening, “We don’t know yet. We don’t know.

Zelensky was going to Washington on a specific mission, according to Ruben Gallego of Arizona, who visited Ukraine earlier this month. The member of the armed services committee said that he was trying to draw a correlation between the present and future support of the country.

The US has a plan of matching its assistance to the shifting strategy ofrussia’s assault. The system would help Kyiv better counter Russia’s brutal missile attacks on cities and electricity installations, which it has mounted in an effective attempt to weaponize bitter winter weather to break the will of Ukrainian civilians.

Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, Wesley Clark said that Zelensky’s trip reflects a critical moment when the destiny of a war that Ukraine cannot win without upgraded US support could be decided before Russia can regroup.

— To Putin, who thought he would topple Zelensky and his nation in a February blitzkrieg, he sent a signal of heroic resistance embraced by the US – after flying to Washington on an US Air Force jet, seeking to show Russians are now fighting a war that can never be won.

His visit to Congress will also play into an increasingly important debate on Capitol Hill over Ukraine aid with Republicans set to take over the House majority in the new year. Some pro-Donald Trump members have warned that billions of dollars in US cash that have been sent to the Ukranian will be used to shoring up the US south border with migrants expected within days.

Zelensky, Roosevelt and the First Two Days of World War II: Remembering Pearl Harbor, December 7, 1941, when evil attacked Pearl Harbor

In March, for instance, Zelensky evoked Mount Rushmore and Martin Luther King Jr.’s “I have a Dream Speech” during a virtual address to Congress. He also referred to two days of infamy in modern history when Americans directly experienced the fear of aerial bombardment.

“Remember Pearl Harbor, terrible morning of December 7, 1941, when your sky was black from the planes attacking you. Just remember it,” Zelensky said. It was a terrible day in 2001 when evil tried to turn your cities into battlefields. When innocent people were attacked, just like everyone else expected, you could not stop it. Our country experiences the same every day.”

After dodging U-boats in the wintery Atlantic and taking a plane from the Virginia coast to DC, the wartime British leader finally met President Franklin Roosevelt on December 22, 1941 at the White House.

Over days of brainstorming and meetings – fueled by Churchill’s regime of sherry with breakfast, Scotch and sodas for lunch, champagne in the evening and a tipple of 90-year-old brandy before bed – the two leaders plotted the defeat of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan and laid the foundation of the Western alliance that Biden has reinvigorated in his support for Ukraine.

During his visit to the United States, which marked the 75th anniversary of the beginning of World War II, the leader said he couldn’t say that he was far from his family and country.

The historical parallels are likely to be appreciated by the Ukrainian leader. He paraphrased one of Churchill’s most famous wartime speeches in an emotional address to British members of parliament in March.

United States Defense and Air Defense Response to Ukraine in the War on Ukraine: Secretary of State Xi Jinping, former secretary of state Vladimir Putin, and U.S. Ambassador To Ukraine

The impact of fire andforget shoulder-launched anti-Tank and Anti-aircraft missiles is seen. We have seen the impact of select use of medium-range anti-ship missiles. The Russians have not been succesful with their use of offensive cyber capabilities.

The second are precision-guided munitions for Ukrainian jets. Russia andUkraine have a lot ofdumb munitions that are fired towards a target. Ukraine has been provided with more and more Western standard precision artillery and missiles, like Howitzers and HIMARS respectively.

The Biden administration said on Wednesday that it would give more than $1 billion to the Ukranian military and provide a new air defense system. It’s one of the most advanced and expensive defense systems the U.S. has supplied since the start of the war.

Biden wants Putin to hear headline figures in the billions and to have European partners help more in order to make Ukraine seem like a bottomless well of resources.

The remnants of the Trumpist “America First” elements of that party have echoed doubts about how much aid the US should really be sending to the edges of eastern Europe.

The bill for the slow loss of Russia in this conflict is relatively low for Washington because of its large annual defense budget.

“I also think no one is asking for a blank check,” Clinton added. The Ukrainians have shown that they are a good investment for the United States. They are not asking us to be there to fight their war. They’re fighting it themselves. They’re asking us and our allies for the means to not only defend themselves but to actually win.”

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

She hopes that they send more than one. She noted there’s “been some reluctance in the past” by the US and NATO to provide advanced equipment, but added “We’ve seen with our own eyes how effective Ukrainian military is.”

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

“I think around now, what [Putin] is considering is how to throw more bodies, and that’s what they will be – bodies of Russian conscripts – into the fight in Ukraine,” Clinton said.

This story was adapted from the December 22 edition of CNN’s Meanwhile in America, the daily email about US politics for global readers. You can subscribe to read past editions.

Unbroken, defiant, a civilian forced to don green military garb, the Ukrainian president spent Wednesday in Washington, DC, on his daring first trip out of his country since Russia’s brutal, unprovoked invasion in February. He expressed heartfelt gratitude for America’s multi-billion dollar weapons and ammunition lifeline – but made clear he’d never stop asking for more.

The fate of millions of Ukrainians will be put in the hands of American lawmakers, taxpayers and families at a time when there is growing skepticism about the cost of US involvement.

Zelensky gave Pelosi and Harris the Ukrainian flag that he had retrieved from the hottest battle front in the world, at the peak of his speech.

They asked me to bring the flag to the congress and to members of congress who can save millions of people.

His broader message was that Ukraine’s fight was not just some flashpoint over an ancient grudge on the fringes of the old Soviet empire. He wanted to hold back tyranny and save global democracy.

Zelensky said thanks for tens of billions of dollars in weapons and aid offered and to come. He argued they could only abandon this hero if they also removed something from their national identity.

— To the incoming House Republican majority, some of whose members want to halt aid, the Ukrainian leader’s hero’s welcome in the chamber suggested they would be shamed if they choose to forsake him.

Zelensky vs. Putin: What do we have to give for Ukraine if we don’t have enough weapons to win?

Zelensky proved that the West was united and Biden meant it when he said Wednesday that the conflict on Putin’s terms was over.

We will celebrate Christmas. He said that it was not because it was more romantic, but because there would be no electricity. If we don’t have electricity at Christmas, the light of our faith will not be put out.

But Zelensky’s inspirational rhetoric and heroic bearing couldn’t disguise the uncertainties and risks of a war in which the US is effectively now fighting a proxy battle with its nuclear superpower rival, Russia.

Zelensky repeatedly pointed out that despite the largesse of US artillery support and the imminent arrival of high-tech weapons like a Patriot missile battery that Biden unveiled Wednesday, his nation was still outmanned and outgunned.

The president has limited the potency of the weapons he sends into the battle, balancing the need to defend a European democracy with the desire not to trigger a disastrous direct clash with Russia and to avoid crossing often invisible red lines whose locations are known only to Putin.

“Now you say, why don’t we just give Ukraine everything there is to give?” Biden said at the White House, explaining that pushing overwhelming force into Ukraine would risk fracturing the transatlantic consensus needed to support the war.

Due to partisan fury that will erupt in a divided Washington next year, there is no guarantee that America’s lawmakers will be able to fund their own government.

Zelensky and Ukraine: What the U.S. wants from a “just peace” of Ukraine, says Nikita Yuferev

Several Republican members who have expressed reservations about aid to Ukraine – like Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Matt Gaetz of Florida – did not stand to applaud when Zelensky was introduced.

The Russians mostly buying that line, says a Russian history professor at the US school of international studies.

Dismissing accusations of a proxy war, Sloat says Zelenskyy and Ukraine have made clear that they want a “just peace,” and all the U.S. has been doing is help the country defend itself against Russian aggression.

Following Danilov’s comments, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Wednesday that there a signs Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive in southern Ukraine.

Critics of Putin say that using the term “war” to describe the Ukraine conflict has been against the law in Russia since March, when the leader signed a law that made it a crime to distribute fake information about the invasion.

“Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war,” Putin told reporters in Moscow, after attending a State Council meeting on youth policy. We have been working for this and will continue to do so.

Nikita Yuferev, a municipal lawmaker from St. Petersburg who fled Russia due to his antiwar stance, on Thursday said he had asked Russian authorities to prosecute Putin for “spreading fake information about the army.”

“There was no decree to end the special military operation, no war was declared,” Yuferev wrote on Twitter. “Several thousand people have already been condemned for such words about the war.”

A US official tells CNN that Putin likely made a slip of the tongue with his remark. The officials will be watching how the figures in the Kremlin respond to it.

In his address to Congress, Zelensky briefly discussed a 10-point peace formula and summit that he told Biden about during an earlier meeting at the White House. The Ukrainian leader said Biden supported peace initiatives.

The Russian War Between the West and the United States During the Second World War II: Vladimir Putin, the Security Secretary of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Military

Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday declared the Kremlin would make a substantial investment in many areas of the military. Putin said he wanted Russia to be prepared for inevitable clashes with its adversaries, and the initiatives included increasing the size of the armed forces, speeding up weapons programs and using a new generation of hypersonic missiles.

There is still time for peace talks with the Ukranian government. Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kulba told the Associated Press that the talks would begin in February only if Russia is indicted by a war crimes tribunal.

Even when seemingly indicating a willingness to negotiate, the Russian leader refused on Sunday to mention Ukraine itself as a relevant party and continued to couch his offer in the false pretext that it is Moscow that is defending itself with what he euphemistically calls a “special military operation.”

As has often been the case throughout the conflict, the vaguely conciliatory tone from Putin was quickly contradicted by a heavy-handed message from one of his key officials.

If threats were to Russian security from there, they would have to be eliminated, or else the Russian military would take action.

Alexander Rodnyansky, an economic adviser to President Zelensky, told CNN Tuesday that Putin’s comments were likely an effort to buy time in the conflict.

Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said that Russia had lost strategically, operationally, and tactically. The NATO secretary general said thatPutin cannot win as he explained why he was rushing weapons to the Ukrainians. And Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Washington was doing all it could to “continue to apply pressure on Moscow to affect (Putin’s) strategic calculus.”

It doesn’t make sense for the West or Ukraine to entertain the possibility of a land deal with Putin in exchange for his invasion.

But Zelensky and his officials have said throughout that they will continue to sound out the possibility of negotiations, without raising any hopes that they would achieve a truce.

Kuleba told the AP that every war ends in a diplomatic way. The actions taken at the battlefield and at the negotiating table end the war.

The Foreign Minister said the UN would be the most natural broker for those talks. He said that the United Nations was the best place for this summit because it was not about making a favor to a country. This is about getting everyone on board.

The steps includes a path to nuclear safety, food security, a special tribunal for alleged Russian war crimes, and a final peace treaty with Moscow. He also urged G20 leaders to use all their power to “make Russia abandon nuclear threats” and implement a price cap on energy imported from Moscow.

The Last Days of the Russian War: Frustrated Media, Social Media, and Entrepreneurs in the War Against a Revolutionary Russia

A swing on the battlefield in the new year could cause a change in the balance of power, but both sides will remain focused on a conflict that many believe will last for a long time.

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

The war has disrupted a period in which the country pursued reforms such as democracy and financial integration with the west, and upended Russian life.

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. Nearly 20,000 people have been held for demonstrating against the war, according to a leading independent monitoring group.

The Russian army has been accused of defaming it’s conduct by assigning long prison sentences to high profile opposition voices.

There are many organizations and people that are added weekly to a list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations in Russia.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”

For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

Restrictions are imposed on internet users. American social media giants were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Putin’s Russian invasion has not failed in its first two years in power: Russia’s military campaign has far-from-the-iterative consequences

Many perceived government opponents left during the early days of the war due to fears of persecution.

Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.

In the initial days of the invasion, Russia’s ruble currency cratered and its banking and trading markets looked shaky. Hundreds of global corporate brands, such as McDonald’s and ExxonMobil, reduced, suspended or closed their Russian operations entirely.

Europe will blink first when faced with sanctions, because it will be angry at the rising cost of energy at home, according to President Putin. He announced a five-month ban on oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap, a move likely to make the pain more acute in Europe.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Russia’s Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin assures that everything is going according to plan.

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

At home, the true number of Russian losses remains a highly taboo topic. Western estimates place the figure much higher.

Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

Russia’s actions have caused long-time allies in the region to criticize them out of fear for their own sovereignty, which would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have eagerly purchased discounted Russian oil, but have stopped short of full-throated support for Russia’s military campaign.

The Putin Problem: What Does Europe Do Now, and What Does It Tell Us About Cold Wars? And What Does Russia Really Want to Do Now?

A State of the Nation address was originally planned for April, but it won’t happen until next year. Putin’s yearly media event in which he gives questions from ordinary Russians has been canceled.

An annual December “big press conference” – a semi-staged affair that allows the Russian leader to handle fawning questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media – was similarly tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.

And finally, to those who felt nuclear saber-rattling was an oxymoron in 2022 – that you could not casually threaten people with nukes as the destruction they brought was complete, for everyone on the planet.

Still, as 2022 closes, Europe is left dealing with a set of known unknowns, unimaginable as recently as in January. A year ago the smaller neighbor excelled in agriculture and IT and was considered the third most formidable military in the world.

Russia has met a side of the West that was happy to send some of its weapons to its eastern border. Western officials might also be surprised that Russia’s red lines appear to shift constantly, as Moscow realizes how limited its non-nuclear options are. This was not supposed to happen. So, what does Europe do and prepare for, now that it has?

The situation at the moment is basically a stalemate, with Russia making costly attacks in several areas, and with both sides preparing for an offensive in the spring/ summer.

Moscow has a dilemma, if its supply chains for diesel fuel for tanks do not function, how can they be sure The Button will work if Putin reaches madly to press it? There is no greater danger for a nuclear power than to reveal its strategic missiles and retaliatory capability do not function.

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. America might not have accepted an inferior compromise had Red Line thinking been in vogue.

The State of Ukraine: NPR’s State of the Union with the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence During the February and March 2004 War of Ukraine

Ukrainian officials have warned for a long time of a renewed Russian offensive and have asked for aid from western allies to stop it.

The Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council tells Sky News that months will be defining in the war.

The representative of the Defense Intelligence of the Ukrainian government stated on national television that February and March would be very active.

“During the week, military representatives from the two countries will practice joint planning of the use of troops based on the prior experience of armed conflicts in recent years,” the ministry said in a statement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise Europe tour, meeting leaders in London, Paris and Brussels, and reiterating his call for allies to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova attended President Biden’s State of the Union speech, for the second year in a row, but the war in Ukraine received far less attention in the address this time.

Here, you can read past recaps. You can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to NPR’s State ofUkraine for the latest updates throughout the day.

“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.

Russia’s intention is to launch an attack on the parts of the south they do not control, while also establishing defensive positions in the area that they do control.

“They amassed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.

He says the Russians have lost many battles because of multiple failures of their military culture, doctrine, organizational structures, training and equipping. Petraeus says this is the first open source war but other aspects of it are still being fought with Cold War tactics and weapons.

Petraeus: Putin has yet to receive a good grade. Let’s recall that the first and most important task of a strategic leader is to “get the big ideas right” – that is, to get the overall strategy and fundamental decisions right. Over 1200 western companies have left Russia since the war began, and many of Russia’s best and brightest are no longer with the country.

The person mentioned is Petraeus. It is not Russia. Russia failed to gain access to the rest of the southern coast ofUkraine, which is much less traveled than the main port at Odesa.

It has lost what it had gained in Kharkiv province. The only forces left west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province were withdrawn because the Ukrainians took out the headquarters and logistical sites that supported those forces.

War between advanced powers – how NATO will be seen, and how we can ensure that it does not become war in a time when everything is inescapable

These are hints to the future of War between advanced powers. In such a conflict, the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems would be vastly more capable than they are today; precision missiles would have far greater range, speed, and power.

It is most likely that we see a war taking place for the first time, in a context where the presence of smart phones, internet, and social media is inescapable.

There would be more than enough drones in every domain, not just the air, but also on the ground, sea, cyberspace, and outer space.

“If it can be seen, it can be hit, or it can be killed,” was one of the quotes from the Cold War days. In those days, we didn’t have the assets or the capability to operate that adage. In the future, however, just about everything – certainly every platform, base and headquarters – will be seen and thus be susceptible to being hit and destroyed (unless there are substantial defenses and hardening of those assets).

We need to transform our forces and systems, that’s why we have to imagination all this. We must deter future conflict by ensuring that there are no questions about our capabilities or our willingness to employ them – and also by doing everything possible to ensure that competition among great powers does not turn into conflict among them.

Thanks to Putin, the description of NATO as suffering from “brain death” by French President Macron in late 2019 has turned out to be more than a bit premature.

Petraeus was talking about all of the above. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.

Petraeus: Not at all. Russia still has enormous military capacity and is certainly still a nuclear superpower, as well as a country with enormous energy, mineral and agricultural blessings. It also has a population (about 145 million) that is nearly double that of the next largest European countries (Germany and Turkey, each just more than 80 million).

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How the Ukraine War Ends? Petraeus: What do we really need to do in the Cold War? What can we learn from the White House?

The leader is a kleptocratic dictator who embraces extreme revanchist views that undermine his decision-making.

Stalin was said to have said: “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Russia has a far bigger population than Ukraine: Will that make a critical difference to the Ukraine war over the long term?

It’s thought as many as 300,000 new recruits are being sent to the frontlines, with a number of up to 100,000 more on the way. That is not trivial, because quantity matters.

Thus, Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, while it is not clear that the same is true of many of the Russian soldiers, a disproportionate number of whom are from ethnic and sectarian minorities in the Russian Federation.

Petraeus: All of those technologies have proven very important, and the Ukrainians have demonstrated enormous skill in adapting various technologies and commercial applications to enable intelligence gathering, targeting and other military tasks.

However, having sat around the Situation Room table in the West Wing of the White House, I know that it is far easier to second-guess from the outside than it is to make tough calls in office. But there are some additional capabilities (advanced drones, even longer-range precision munitions, fighter aircraft, and additional air defense and counter-drone capabilities) that I would like to see us provide sooner rather than later.

Eventually, for example, Ukraine is going to have to transition from eastern bloc aircraft (e.g., MiG-29s) to western ones (e.g., F-16s). There are more pilots than aircraft at this point in time, and they don’t have any more MiGs to give them.

So, we might as well begin the process of transition, noting that it will take a number of months, regardless, to train pilots and maintenance personnel. All that said, again, I think the Administration has done a very impressive job and proven to be the indispensable nation in this particular situation – with important ramifications for other situations around the world.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

How Does Ukraine War Ends? What Do We Think about the Israelis and How Does Putin End the Black-Sea-Taiwan War?

The force that Putin sends to battle is the quasi-privateWagner Group. Any thoughts on using mercenaries, many of whom are convicts, as a tactic?

It is somewhat innovative and also inhumane for Russia to use former convicts as mercenaries, as it involves throwing them into battle with little to no concern for their survival.

These are not the tactics or practices that, at the end of the day, foster development of well-trained, disciplined, capable, and cohesive units that have trust in their leaders and soldiers on their left and right.

What do the lessons of Ukraine for the Chinese when they stage an attack on Taiwan, which is over a body of water, not a land border? Does the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea navy, reshape how the Chinese might think about this question?

And especially if the target of such an operation has a population willing to fight fiercely for its survival and be supported by major powers – not just militarily but with substantial economic, financial, and personal sanctions and export controls.

Petraeus: Yes, I believe it is. The first war in which social media and phones have been available is by far the most popular one. There is unprecedented transparency and an incredible amount of information available through so-called open sources.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html

NATO Support in Ukraine and the War in the Cold War : What Do Western Leaders Really Want to Do During the Ex-Warsaw War?

The limitations of professional capabilities of the Russian forces and their demonstrated inability to generate combined arms effect make it difficult to come up with an innovative new plan.

You famously asked “tell me how this ends” at the start of the Iraq War. For the war in Ukraine: How does this end?

If NATO membership is not possible, a Marshall-like plan has been created by the US and G7 to rebuild the country, and get an ironclad security guarantee.

The US and Western leaders are planning to show their support for NATO, which is in the conflict for the long haul and until Moscow defeats it.

Vice PresidentKamala Harris head to theMunich Security Conference this week as the Western rhetorical and diplomatic offensive ramps up. President Joe Biden will meanwhile visit Poland and a frontline NATO and ex-Warsaw pact state next week, bolstering his legacy of offering the most effective leadership of the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.

The Prospect of an End to the War in the US-China Relations and the Prospect for a “Stormless Cold War”

In the US House for instance, some members of the new Republican majority are skittish. Gaetz demanded an end to aid to Ukraine and for the US to demand a peace agreement immediately. The Senate and House have a majority for saving Ukraine. Biden is not certain he can guarantee huge aid packages for Ukraine in the future. And US aid might be in serious doubt if ex-President Donald Trump or another Republican wins the 2024 election.

The outside world knows Putin is not thinking of quitting the war because of the lack of a proper framework for truce talks.

Hill, who was in the White House with President Donald Trump, said at the Senate hearing that there were no signs Putin was losing his determination.

The prospect of China leaning on Putin for an end to the war was remote even before the lurch in US-China relations caused by the flight of a Chinese spy balloon across the US this month.

“You’re going to end up with an albatross around your neck,” Sherman said at an event at the Brookings Institution, though admitted the US was concerned about tightening ties between China and Russia at a time when it is locked in simultaneous showdowns with each power.