Vladimir Putin Doesn’t Want to End the War in Ukraine, Neither Russia nor the Ukrainians: A Keynote Address on the Status of Transatlantic Security
Putin said in a Sunday interview that Russia was ready for a discussion about ending the war in Ukraine, but he also said that the Ukrainians were not willing to do that. Despite Putin’s comments, Moscow’s forces have kept attacking Ukraine — a sign that peace isn’t imminent.
If Zelenskyy reached the conclusion that we should negotiate in order to stop the punishment, then so be it. Because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people, I think he can’t do that anymore.
Petraeus spoke at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.
Fast-forward two years, and reading that transatlantic dynamic post-Angela Merkel, and particularly post-Russian President Vladimir Putin’s failing invasion of Ukraine, has become one of the most pressing political questions vexing the Kremlin.
The conflict needs to end with a victory for the Ukranian people, according to a top Ukrainian official.
But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. In fact, he says, just the opposite. “Putin’s memory of when he runs into an obstacle is what escalates the most,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”
Russian forces began their next major offensive in the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk, attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Russian forces are trying to encircle Bakhmut, a city in eastern Ukraine, said analysts from the Atlantic Council.
That said, in the short term, having failed to take control of Kyiv and replace President Zelensky with a pro-Russian figure, Putin is seeking to expand the area of Ukraine controlled by Russian forces. Particularly in the southeastern part of Russia, and to solidify Russian control over the provinces that connect Russia with Crimea in the so-called land bridge, so that Russia does not have to rely solely on the Kerch Strait Bridge for connection with Crimea.
“That is essentially a metaphorical burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”
Petraeus: It is certainly possible that Putin could order Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Peter, and we should be concerned about that possibility. However, that would be an incredibly bad decision on his part, as use of such weapons would result in Russia being in a worse situation than it was before their use, rather than a better situation.
Cold War, Cold Water, and Cold War: The Inconsistency of the Cold War between the U.S. and its Central Power Plants
At the Georgia conference, in a ballroom filled with experienced national security types, no one suggested the war was near an end. “Most wars end with some sort of negotiated solution, whether that comes out of stalemate or defeat, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term,” said Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.
He noted that this war began after a Russian invasion and is now as intense as it ever was. Greg Myre is an NPR journalist. Follow him on social media.
— And to Ukrainians hunkered down in basements and to soldiers on the front line, he proved that they are not alone as Russian attacks on their power plants effectively weaponize winter.
The new, $1.8 billion package Biden will unveil includes a Patriot surface-to-air missile system, which has been a longstanding request of Ukraine’s to fend of Russian air attacks. CNN was the first to report that the US would be sending the systems to Ukraine.
“Earlier, many experts, including those overseas, questioned the rationality of such a step which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the risk of directly dragging the US army into combat,” Zakharova said at a briefing in Moscow.
The Patriot system is expensive and complicated and requires intensive training for the multiple people it takes to operate it, but could help the country guard against Russian attacks that have left millions without power.
Asked Thursday about Russian warnings that the Patriot system would be “provocative,” Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said those comments would not influence US aid to Ukraine.
In my opinion, it was ironic that officials from a country that attacked its neighbor would use words like provocative to describe the defensive systems that are meant to save lives and protect civilians.
He said that despite Russia’s threats about nuclear weapons, there has been no detected change in Russia’s nuclear posture, but Putin’s rhetoric “is by itself reckless and dangerous.”
In what may be a no less subtle message than calling the Patriot deployments provocative, Russia’s defense ministry shared video of the installation of a “Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo launcher in the Kaluga region for what Alexei Sokolov, commander of the Kozelsky missile formation, called “combat duty as planned.”
Appearing this week on Russian state TV, Commander Alexander Khodakovsky of the Russian militia in the Donetsk region suggested Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.
Reconciling Russia with Patriot missile development in order to preserve Ukraine’s independence from Russia, a US official tells the Economist
Unlike smaller air defense systems, Patriot missile batteries need much larger crews, requiring dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The United States will have to carry out training on Patriot missile batteries under the pressure of attacks from Russia, a process that normally takes several months.
The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as some aircraft. Because of its long-range and high-altitude capability, it can potentially shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft far from their intended targets inside Ukraine.
In an interview with The Economist published Thursday, Zelensky also rejected the idea recently suggested by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Ukraine seek to reclaim only land seized by Russia since February 2022 and not areas like Donbas and Crimea, which have been under Russian control since 2014.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the French news outlet France 24 this week, before the Patriot missile development, that the alliance still has two main objectives: provide aid to Ukraine and also make sure that NATO forces don’t become directly involved and escalate the war.
Old ammo. CNN reported earlier this week on a military official from the US who said that the Russian forces had to resort to 40-year-old equipment because their supplies of new equipment were quickly running out.
“You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it’s gonna fire or when it lands that it’s gonna explode,” said the official, speaking to reporters.
How Vladimir Putin Ends the War on Ukraine, and How he Will Reinvigorate the Defense of the United States After Russia’s Invasion
The effect of a long time of military aid. CNN reported last month that the US is not giving enough weapons to Ukraine because it is low on supplies. Look for that storyline to become part of the US aid debate after Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next month and promise more scrutiny of US aid for Ukraine.
In the trenches. CNN’s Will Ripley filed a video report from trenches and fortifications being built along Ukraine’s border with Belarus, where there is growing concern about Russia once again assembling troops. The sewing machine repairman was turned into a tank driver.
“It’s something we’ve wanted to do for some time,” the administration official said, noting it came 300 days after Russia began its invasion in February. Zelensky wouldn’t be deterred from making travel decisions by Russia’s actions and there was no formula for the right day to make his first trip out of the country.
After Russia’s brutal, unprovoked invasion in February, the Ukrainian president spent Wednesday in Washington, DC, a trip that was his first out of his country. He thanked America for all of its weaponry but made clear that he would never stop asking for more.
On their phone call, Biden and Scholz “expressed their common determination to continue to provide the necessary financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as needed,” a joint statement read.
The US set to work executing those parameters after Zelensky determined that they met his needs. The trip was finally confirmed on Sunday.
Appearing with extraordinary symbolism at the White House with President Joe Biden and before a joint meeting of Congress, Zelensky also bore sobering news. A long, bloody battle for freedom, democracy, and ultimately, the survival of a nation Russian President Vladimir Putin says has no right to exist – a fight for which it’s still not clear the free world has the stomach – is nowhere near over.
“We know that the days ahead, the conflict will continue,” the senior administration official said. “The winter will be hard, and we will continue day-in, day-out to provide critical support to the Ukrainian people.”
The official said US troops would train Ukrainians to use the system in a third country. It has been reported by CNN that the training would occur at a US Army base.
“I also think no one is asking for a blank check,” Clinton added. “I believe that the Ukrainians have proven that they are a really good investment for the United States. They are not asking us to fight the war. They’re fighting it themselves. They want us and our allies to have means to defend ourselves and actually win.
It was connected to the struggle of Ukrainian people, to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to know that the families in Ukraine are on the front lines, so we want to think about them.
Scholz said more would be deployed “very soon,” together with trained soldiers, but he warned that many of Ukraine’s partners aren’t able to deliver the most modern models of the fighting vehicles.
Clinton’s “Flight for Ukraine”: The Story of a Hero-turned-Wartime Hero in the House of Representatives
Clinton said that the leader was “probably impossible to predict” as the war turned inUkraine’s favor and his popularity waned at home.
“I think around now, what [Putin] is considering is how to throw more bodies, and that’s what they will be – bodies of Russian conscripts – into the fight in Ukraine,” Clinton said.
CNN adapted this story from the December 22 edition of Meanwhile in America, the daily email about US politics for global readers. Click here to read past editions and subscribe.
The comic actor-turned-wartime hero effectively put the fate of millions of Ukrainians in the hands of American lawmakers, taxpayers and families at a time when there is growing skepticism among the incoming Republican House majority about the cost of US involvement.
Zelensky handed Pelosi and Harris a flag from the battle front at Bakhmut while he was in the House chamber.
He told them that their decisions could save millions of people and that they should bring the flag to them.
“The American people, in their righteous might, will win through to absolute victory,” Zelensky said, quoting FDR. “The Ukrainian people will win too, absolutely.”
The broader message was that the fight was more than just a display of displeasure over a long-standing dispute. It was that his fight is America’s and everyone’s – to hold back tyranny and save global democracy.
After flying to Washington on an US Air Force plane, Putin sent a signal of heroic resistance to the Americans in order to show they are not alone in their fight against Russia.
The hero’s welcome of theUkrainian leader in the chamber by the incoming House Republican majority indicated they would be shamed if they stopped aid.
Christmas, but there will be no electricity: When will Ukraine be destroyed? When will the United States respond? When Vladimir Putin addressed the White House on Wednesday
We will celebrate Christmas and it might be candlelit. He said that it’s not because it’s more romantic than before, but because there will be no electricity. “We’ll celebrate Christmas and even if there is no electricity, the light of our faith, in ourselves, will not be put out.”
Zelensky repeatedly pointed out that despite the largesse of US artillery support and the imminent arrival of high-tech weapons like a Patriot missile battery that Biden unveiled Wednesday, his nation was still outmanned and outgunned.
The president has limited the strength of the weapons he sends into the battle, balancing the need to defend a European democracy with the desire not totrigger a disastrous direct clash with Russia and to avoid crossing often invisible red lines.
Why don’t we just give everything to the people in Ukranian? Biden stated at the White house that pushing force into Ukraine would break the alliance needed to support the war.
Zelensky also had a message for some members of the incoming GOP House majority, who are skeptical of massive aid for Ukraine, and the possible new House speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who warned again after the speech on Wednesday that he did not support a blank check for Ukraine.
However, given partisan fury that will erupt in a divided Washington next year, there is no guarantee that America’s lawmakers will even be able to fund their own government – let alone one fighting for its survival thousands of miles away.
Several Republican members who have expressed reservations about aid to Ukraine – like Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Matt Gaetz of Florida – did not stand to applaud when Zelensky was introduced.
Zelensky’s visit recalled an earlier visit to Washington that started 81 years ago Thursday, by another leader of a dark, bomb-ravaged nation, desperate for US help to turn the tide toward victory over totalitarianism. Pelosi’s father was in the House when the British Prime Minister addressed Congress on December 26, 1941. Zelensky borrowed one of the great statesman’s greatest lines, as he also presented himself as the symbol of a nation’s defiance.
Ukraine wants a peace summit in February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a mediator
KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s foreign minister on Monday said that his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a possible mediator, around the anniversary of Russia’s war.
Russia can only be invited to a summit if it faces a war crimes tribunal, according to the Foreign Minister.
Kuleba also said he was “absolutely satisfied” with the results of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. last week, and he revealed that the U.S. government had made a special plan to get the Patriot missile battery ready to be operational in the country in less than six months. Training can take up to a year.
Kuleba told the Foreign Ministry that diplomacy always plays an important role in winning war and that Ukraine will do whatever it can to win in 2023.
“The United Nations could be the best venue for holding this summit, because this is not about making a favor to a certain country,” he said. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.”
At the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia in November, Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula which included the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the withdrawal of Russian troops.
About Guterres’ role, Kuleba said: “He has proven himself to be an efficient mediator and an efficient negotiator, and most importantly, as a man of principle and integrity. So we would welcome his active participation.”
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145539638/ukraine-russia-peace-summit-foreign-minister
The U.S. Foreign Ministry is ready to cooperate with Ukraine, and the United States is waiting for negotiations in the face of Russian repression
“They regularly say that they are ready for negotiations, which is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield proves the opposite,” he said.
“This shows how important the United States is to both Ukraine and America,” said Kuleba as she talked about the delegation that went to the US.
The program for the missile battery was developed by the US government to be completed faster than normal, and did not damage the weapon on the battlefield.
While Kuleba didn’t mention a specific time frame, he said only that it will be “very much less than six months.” He said that the training would be done outside of Ukraine.
Ukraine called for Russia’s UN membership to be revoked and for it to be excluded from the world body. Kuleba said they have long “prepared for this step to uncover the fraud and deprive Russia of its status.”
The Foreign Ministry says that Russian never went through the legal procedure for acquiring membership and taking the place of the USSR at the U.N. Security Council after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The US has provided other armored vehicles to Ukraine in the past, including Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles and armored utility vehicles. The US also paid for the refurbishment of Soviet-era T-72 tanks.
The commitment was affirmed in a phone call between Biden and the German Chancellor. Germany will send new fighting vehicles and a missile battery to help the Ukrainians fight off Russian air attacks.
Germany’s moral compass in the wake of a Trumpian presidency: the example of the undersea pipeline between Ukraine and the United States
Zelensky wanted those systems to be able to target Russian missiles that are higher up in the sky than they were previously able to.
Russia had invested heavily in the 750-mile undersea pipeline linking it to Germany and wanted to increase global sales and ramp up economic leverage over Europe and its power-hungry heavy industries. Germany, a leading consumer, was on board from the start. Washington was not.
The United States didn’t want the new, high-capacity subsea supply to supplant old overland lines that transited Ukraine, providing vital revenue to the increasingly Westward-leaning leadership in Kyiv.
Europe has been slow to respond to the deep fissures in US politics and the uncertainty another Trumpian-style presidency could wreak on its allies. Europe leads the way after decades of a very stable reliance, if not complete trust in the US.
Chancellor Merkel was Europe’s moral compass. Scholz received a thunderous applause in Germany’s parliament on Wednesday as he flashed a rare moment of steely leadership, thanks to his ponderous, often stop/go/wait traffic-light governing coalition.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/europe/germany-russia-us-relations-intl-cmd/index.html
“We know what you do”: a Russian diplomat at the end of the Cold War, and the role of Germany in the war crimes of Ukraine
“Trust us,” he said, “we won’t put you in danger.” He spelled out how his government had already handled Russia’s aggression and how fears of a freezing winter and economic collapse were not realized. “The government dealt with the crisis,” he said, adding: “We are in a much better position.”
The applause at each step of his carefully crafted speech spoke as loudly as his words. Scholz brought with him a population that was reticent to war and a deep and divided population over how much they should aid Ukraine in killing Russians and possibly angering the Kremlin.
Scholz seems to have wrestled with some vestige of influence over America in the Ukrainian war, but in Moscow they don’t think his new vigor changes much.
Russia’s ambassador to Germany said Berlin’s move to send tanks was “extremely dangerous” and accused Scholz of refusing “to acknowledge its [Germany’s] historic accountability to our people for the horrific crimes of Nazism.” Meanwhile his counterpart in Washington accused the White House of “blatant provocation” and Biden of being intent on the “strategic defeat” of Russia.
Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and deputy chairman of its national security council, has said Russia would never allow itself to be defeated and would use nuclear weapons if threatened.
Some people were confused by the announcements by Biden and Scholz. Some 888-269-5556 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s 888-269-5556s
From being late to recognize Russia’s threat, reorient Germany, reinvigorate its military, and ramp up weapon supplies to Ukraine, the pragmatist Scholz has now signaled Germany is very much in play – and, indeed, wants hands on the controls. He said Germany would “coordinate” supplies of the Leopard 2 from allies to Ukraine, a power invested in him by German legislation preventing any purchaser of the country’s war-fighting hardware to pass it on to a third state.
Longer debates about the next military moves for Ukraine could be coming and will likely signal to Zelensky that weapons supplies will be on more of a German leash, and less unilaterally led by Washington.
This shift in the power dynamic may not change the way the war is fought but could impact the contours of a final deal and shape a lasting peace when it comes.
The International Monetary Fund releases its latest World Economic Outlook (Tuesday morning in Singapore, Monday night ET). Russia-Ukraine war is causing economic slowdown and recession in some countries according to the International Monetary Fund.
U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy arrives in Moscow after the Ukrainian invasion of Bakhmut and will visit Ukraine next week for NATO & NATO drills
A group of European Commission leaders is expected to visit Ukraine on Thursday and European Union leaders plan to hold a summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the following day.
Ukraine’s military acknowledged the Russian takeover of Soledar, retreating from the eastern town after a tough battle. The Russian forces continued their offensive in the area around Bakhmut.
New U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy arrived in Moscow, at a time of strong tensions between the two governments over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Monday, Tracy was reportedly heckled by protesters as she entered the Russian Foreign Ministry to present her credentials.
The ambassadors of Russia were told to leave by the two Baltic NATO states after Russia retaliated against the expulsion of their ambassador.
Here you can read past recaps. More in-depth stories and context can be found here. Also, listen to NPR’s State of Ukraine and get the latest news all day.
Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of the country, told Sky News in an interview that the months will be defining in the war.
Russia is bracing for a lot of escalation. It’s doing drills and training. I can tell you that we don’t exclude anything in the next two to three weeks when it comes to offensives from different directions.
The head of the United Coordinating Press Center of Security and Defense forces of the South of Ukraine said on TV that it was also on air and in the sea.
War in Ukraine: The impact of Bakhmut and the lack of military personnel in the region of Ukraine – a week after the State of the Union
Military representatives from the two countries will work together for a week on planning the use of troops based on their previous experience of armed conflicts.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said its Leopard 2s will reach Ukraine by the end of March, while UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the Challenger 2s should be provided to Kyiv “this side of the summer.” On January 26 the deputy Pentagon press Secretary said that the deliveries of the tanks would take months.
The US President reiterated on January 30 that the US would not send F16 fighter jets to Ukraine, while the GermanChancellor said that he was not intending to provide warplanes to Kyiv.
“We are on the edge of a very active phase of hostilities, February and March will be very active,” Andriy Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said on national television.
The War in Ukraine was overshadowed by the talk of other things during President Biden’s State of the Union speech, which was attended by the Ukrainian Ambassador.
According to an international team, Russian President Putin gave the green light to provide anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels in Ukraine.
Col. Serhiy Cherevaty said on television that soldiers needed to keep their focus on defensive lines. He said that part of the reason for barring civilians, including aid workers, from entering the city was to keep military operations secret.
As a prize, Bakhmut offers little in the way of strategic value for either Moscow or Kyiv. It’s significance is more from the amount of blood spilled.
“Even if Bakhmut were to fall, it would not have a strategic impact on the overall war,” said the National Security Council spokesman, John Kirby. It won’t have a strategic impact on the fighting in the area.
The American Defense Secretary is Not Seeing Russia Massing its Aircraft: A CNN Analysis of the 2016 Ukrainian Anti-Birmion Campaign
In Brussels, Western officials deflected questions about whether Ukraine would win its campaign to secure still more powerful weapons to use against its Russian enemy.
Asked in Brussels on Tuesday whether fighter jets had been discussed, Mr. Austin, the American defense secretary, said, “I don’t have any announcement to make today.”
“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.
The Russian military needed to regenerate power for a lengthy offensive, and the US military did not think it would be done until May. The US now sees it as likely that Russian forces are moving before they are ready due to political pressure from the Kremlin, the senior US military official told CNN.
One or two small cities in the eastern part of the country is all they have, according to a senior Ukrainian diplomat. It was rather overwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.
Editor’s Note: Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America, and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. View more opinion on CNN.
The Russians in the First Open-Source War: How Do We Get What We Need? And Why Do We Need More Technicolor?
The Russians have lost many battles due to failures of their military culture, doctrine, organizational structures, training and equipement. Other aspects of the war are fought with Cold War tactics and weapons, but with improved capabilities, even though they are seen as the first open-source war.
The person is Petraeus. Putin has earned a failing grade to date. Let’s recall that the first and most important task of a strategic leader is to “get the big ideas right” – that is, to get the overall strategy and fundamental decisions right. The war that Putin failed in caused the Russian economy to go broke, and forced over 1,200 western companies to leave Russia.
Petraeus: It is not Russia, that is what it is. Even though Russia lost the Battles of Ukraine, it failed to take the rest of the south of the country.
It has lost a lot of what it did in Kharkiv. And it has had to withdraw its only forces west of the Dnipro River in Kherson province because the Ukrainians made the vital bridge connections to those forces impassable, took out the headquarters and logistics sites supporting those forces, and isolated them from the rest of the Russian elements east of the river.
The side that generates the most capable, well-trained and well-equipped forces by then will make the most significant gains. My bet is on the Ukrainians in that regard.
What technologies are key to success in this war? Several newish technologies seem to have proven important: Elon Musk’s Starlink mobile satellite systems kept communications open for the Ukrainians after the Russians had partially destroyed the phone system and jammed it. US-supplied HIMARS precision rockets have decimated Russian targets. The Ukrainians were aided in their identification of Russian soldiers on the battlefield by the use of a controversial facial recognition technology. TB2 Turkish armed drones have proven devastating to Russian targets and cheap commercial drones have helped the Ukrainians find targets.
We see the impact of sophisticated, western-provided fire-and-forget shoulder-launched anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. We have seen the impact of select use of medium-range anti-ship missiles. The use of offensive cyber capabilities by the Russians have not been very successful.
We are seeing a war in a context that includes the widespread presence of smart phones, internet and social media.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
How NATO Becomes Great Again: What Putin Did to Make Russia Great Again and What NATO Did Not: Training, Control, Communications, Training, and Operations
And there would incomparably greater numbers of vastly more capable unmanned systems (some remotely piloted, others operating according to algorithms) in every domain – not just in the air, but also at sea, sub-sea, on the ground, in outer space, and in cyberspace, and operating in swarms, not just individually!
I recall an adage from the Cold War days that stated, “if it can be seen, it can be hit, if it can be hit, it can be killed.” In those days, we didn’t have the resources needed to operate that adage. In the future, not all platforms, bases and headquarters will be resistant to being hit and destroyed, unless there are substantial defenses and safeguards in place.
Imagining all this underscores, of course, that we must take innumerable actions to transform our forces and systems. Competition among great powers does not become conflict among them if we ensure there are no questions about our capabilities or willingness to employ them.
Petraeus: The situation is so ironies that this question gets at it. Putin was going to make Russia great again. However, what he has done is make NATO great again – with two very capable, historically neutral powers (Finland and Sweden) seeking NATO membership; with substantially increased defense spending by NATO members, most notably Germany; with augmentation of NATO forces in the Baltic states and eastern Europe; and with the greatest unity among NATO members since the end of the Cold War.
The description of NATO as suffering from “brain death” by French President Macron in the late 1980’s has been more than a bit premature thanks to Putin.
Petraeus: All of the above and more. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.
Instability of the Soviet Union in the era of the Cold War and the Implications for the Future of the U.S. Army
It is still led by a dictator who embraces many grievances and extreme revanchist views that undermine his decision-making.
Stalin said thatQuantity has a quality all of it’s own. Russia has a far bigger population than Ukraine: Will that make a critical difference to the Ukraine war over the long term?
Petraeus. It could if Putin mobilized all of Russia successfully. Putin is worried about how the country might respond to total Mobilization, which has limited the amount of Mobilization to date. In fact, reportedly, more Russian men left the country than reported to the mobilization stations in response to the latest partial call-up of reserves.
It is believed that as many as 300,000 new recruits and mobilized reserves are sent to the frontlines, with upwards of 100,000 more on the way. And that is not trivial, because quantity does matter.
Although Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, it’s not clear whether the same applies to many of the Russian soldiers who are ethnic and sectarian minorities in the Russian Federation.
The Ukrainians are able to learn how to use new weapons systems and vehicles much more rapidly than anticipated, as they want to master new capabilities as quickly as possible and get back to the fight.
Some of the Ukrainians ability to solve problems include the repair of battle-damaged armored vehicles, the conversion of Western missiles for use on fighter jets, and even the creation of atractor army.
I know from experience that it is easier to second-guess a decision made from the inside than it is from the outside. I would like us to provide more capabilities sooner rather than later, including advanced drones, longer-range precision munitions and fighter aircraft.
Eventually, for example, Ukraine is going to have to transition from eastern bloc aircraft (e.g., MiG-29s) to western ones (e.g., F-16s). There just aren’t any more MiGs to provide to them, and they reportedly have more pilots than aircraft at this point.
We should begin the transition process because it will take a long time to train pilots and maintenance personnel. All that said, again, I think the Administration has done a very impressive job and proven to be the indispensable nation in this particular situation – with important ramifications for other situations around the world.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
What does Russia do with its mercenaries in the war in Ukraine? The role of the military, the Chinese, and Zelensky
Bergen: The quasi-private Wagner Group is the force that Putin sends into the meat grinder of the toughest battles. Is using mercenaries a good way to use convicts as a tactic?
Petraeus: What Russia has done with what are, in essence, mercenaries, as you note, is somewhat innovative – but also essentially inhumane, as it entails throwing soldiers (many of them former convicts) into battle as cannon fodder, and with little, if any, concern for their survival.
These are not the tactics or practices that let a unit know they have the trust of their leaders and soldiers on their left and right.
Would the lessons of Ukraine be useful to the Chinese if they were to stage an attack on Taiwan over a large body of water? Does the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea navy, reshape how the Chinese might think about this question?
And especially if the target of such an operation has a population willing to fight fiercely for its survival and be supported by major powers – not just militarily but with substantial economic, financial, and personal sanctions and export controls.
And it is critical that the leaders of the US and other western nations – and of China and India, as well – convey clearly and repeatedly to Putin that the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons for Russia would, indeed, be “catastrophic,” to quote US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Is this the first truly open-source war? The war in Ukraine is being fought in part on social media by Zelensky; commercial overhead satellites capture Russian battle groups moving around in real-time, and the social media accounts of Russian mercenaries in the Wagner Group document what they are doing.
Petraeis: I believe it is. This is the first war in which smartphones and social media have been so widely available and also so widely employed. An unbelievable amount of information is available through so-called open sources.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
How does the end of the Iraq War go? – A chancellor’s view on the case of the unified arms effect in Ukraine
That said, there does not seem to be a particularly innovative new plan, given the limitations of the professional capabilities of the Russian forces and their demonstrated inability to generate “combined arms effect” – to integrate the actions of tanks with infantry, artillery/mortars, engineers, explosive ordnance disposal, electronic warfare, fixed and rotary wing close air support, air defenses, effective command and control, drones, etc.
You famously asked “tell me how this ends” during the beginning of the Iraq War. For the war in Ukraine: How does this end?
Petraeus: I think it ends in a negotiated resolution, when Putin recognizes that the war is unsustainable on both the battlefield (where Russia has in the first year likely taken many times the losses that the USSR took in nearly a decade in Afghanistan) and on the home front (which has been heavily impacted by economic, financial, economic, and personal sanctions and export controls).
The chancellor said that it is wise to be prepared for a long war in Ukraine and that the allies will stay together for the duration.
“The really important decision we should take all together is saying that we are willing to do it as long as necessary, and that we will do our best,” the chancellor said.
“We just do it together with our friends and partners, and especially with the United States,” Scholz said, adding that he really appreciates his government’s “strong alliance” with the US.
“I learned that many people are not able to deliver the most modern things, but we will give the support as well.” “And as you know, there is also a big number of older tanks which we will deliver.”
Confronted on concerns over dwindling ammunition stockpiles, Scholz stressed the need for a “permanent production of the most important weapons,” including ammunition.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius at the Munich Conference in Presidency of the DS-Russian Collider: Predictions for the Munich conference
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was also present at Friday’s meetings, saying the Munich conference is “more important than ever,” given the Russian invasion.