The Election is Now: Do You Wanna Be Shocked by the Unification of the Party? An Empirical Comment on the Nominating Case Against Hillary Clinton
No GOP candidate has won the nomination without their home state. Haley believes she can win in South Carolina and that she has plenty of time to build up her supporters. Trump wants to knock her out before she finally gets that chance. He’s already saying it’s time to unify the Republican party: behind the front runner, of course.
Even if winning New Hampshire weren’t a reach, Ben Ginsberg, a retired Republican attorney who is a leading expert on the nominating process, says the deck is already stacked against her.
“It seems like it’s going down party lines if it’s gonna be Biden or Trump,” she said. I don’t think anyone feels that good about those choices. But this is what we got. Maybe not.
“Do you want to be scared in November or not?” she asks in a call and response near the end of her stump speech. “Do you want your kids to be proud in November or not? Let’s do it.
Haley is imploring voters in New Hampshire to give her a chance to prevent Biden and Trump from coming back.
The Democrat-Impact Campaign and the Reset of the Republican Primary: A Case Study of Nikki, Clinton, and the Granite State
Since the beginning of last year, $77.5 million has been spent on campaign ads targeting the state in the GOP primary, according to data compiled by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact and analyzed by NPR, as of Sunday afternoon. More than $10 million of that has come in just the past week — all for a state that allocates 22 delegates, or less than 1% of the total.
He suggests that the election could be reset for the entire country. Nikki is the only one who can beat Donald Trump.
That is, he said, “If enough Republicans and independents get a sense of sanity back and are less interested in drama and just pettiness. We’re tired of pettiness. That is what Haley would take from where we are today.
A couple of days ago, the former governor of South Carolina gave a speech in which she claimed that she is the most electable Republican in the race.
She said she was referring to a poll about a hypothetical general election result, but it’s unclear which poll she was talking about. There aren’t any public polls showing her ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Haley has been trying to connect with potential supporters at a variety of events in the run up to the primary.
“I have told you from the very beginning and been very consistent: I said I wanted to be strong in Iowa. When asked about her path to victory, Haley snapped back, “I feel like we did that.”
In 2008, it was the opposite. Clinton got emotional when she answered a question from a voter. That gained lots of attention and may have actually turned around her fortunes in the Granite State.
The New Hampshire Primary: The First Preliminary Election for the Republican Party and a “Comeback Kid” by Muskie
“It changed people’s minds about me, of what kind of guy I was,” Muskie said of the moment. “They were looking for a strong, steady man, and here I was, weak.”
There are some examples that stand out. It had a hoax letter from Richard Nixon’s campaign. Muskie was wrongly accused of using an ethnic slur that led to him crying in public while also defending his wife, who was accused of liking “to tell dirty jokes and smoke cigarettes.”
If the secretary of state chooses a certain date, the presidential primary will take place on the second Tuesday in March or before any other state holds a similar election.
In 1920, New Hampshire became the first primary after Minnesota and Indiana dropped theirs. In the history of the primary it was stated that only delegates to the national convention were cast for who they wanted to be president.
That had an impact on not just Democratic politics, but the GOP, too. The primary process was opened up by the Democrats. More states gained influence, and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status was threatened.
President Johnson’s victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968 was seen by many as an early indicator of the extent to which he was unpopular with his party. He decided against running. McCarthy was popular with anti-war Democrats, but he was snubbed at the 1968 Democratic convention. There is unrest in Chicago because of the party’s selection of Humphrey as its nominee.
It had an immediate impact. Harry Truman lost the New Hampshire primary when he was unpopular because of the Korean War. He decided against running for reelection. For Republicans that year, Dwight Eisenhower won and became the party nominee over Robert Taft, who had been seen as the party establishment’s choice.
Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu used to talk about Iowa and New Hampshire picking presidents.
It’s a good predictor of who wins the GOP nomination. Six of the 8 New Hampshire winners went on to win the nomination, including three who won in the final month of the campaign. Three Iowa winners became the nominee, but not the last three.
Bill Clinton was called the “Comeback Kid” when he won the nomination in 1992, following a close second place finish. Sixteen years later, Clinton’s wife, Hillary Clinton, was trailing Barack Obama in the polls after his surprise Iowa win. But Hillary Clinton pulled out the victory in New Hampshire. While she didn’t win the nomination, her New Hampshire win gave new life to her campaign and led to the long, drawn-out primary fight that ensued.
This is maybe the biggest difference from the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire allows independent voters to cast a ballot in either the Republican or Democratic primary, which is different from party caucuses and is also state-run.
In addition to being generally a more moderate, suburban and less religious set of Republican voters than in Iowa, undeclared voters make up almost 40% of the state’s registered voters.
Two dozen names will be on New Hampshire voters’ radar even though most of the coverage has focused on the leading Republican candidates. Here is a sample ballot.
For Democrats, it’s a similar number — 21 people, including the likes of Paperboy Love Prince, Vermin Supreme, self-help author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. Who it won’t include is President Biden.
South Carolina’s move to favor Biden in the 2020 nomination led the Democratic Party to demoted New Hampshire’s primary.
There is, however, an active write-in campaign for Biden, which the party establishment has to hope wins. It would be a big black eye for the president.
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
The New Hampshire Primary: How Many Votes Has Scanlan Done Since 2016, when he Voted on Dixville Notch?
There have been $5 million in ads in New Hampshire paid for byPhillips, and his group, which has at least one man in a Big Foot outfit.
Secretary of State David Scanlan is predicting a record turnout of 322,000 for the GOP primary. The Republican turnout record is 282,979 set in 2016. New Hampshire has historically had the highest participation rates in the country.
The most famous example of this is Dixville Notch, which made headlines because it predicted the Republican nominee in every election since 1968. That was broken in 2016 when it sided with former Ohio Gov. John Kasich over Trump. But the town, which is only 20 miles from the Canadian border, only has a population of 5. The vote in 2016 for Kasich was 3-2.
Because the 221 towns in the state have flexibility in their opening and closing times, a few of the most sparsely populated towns have used that to gain some attention by beginning voting at midnight.
All polling places must be open from at least 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. ET at a minimum, according to the Secretary of State’s office. Some polling locations have earlier hours or extend theirs, but all polls will be closed by 8:00 p.m. ET. You can find the hours for each polling location here.
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
The 2016 Iowa Caucus Survey: What Can the New Hampshire electorate tell us about the general election? How far will the Republican Party go?
The survey underscored the potential general-election problems of Trump. A majority of the New Hampshire electorate felt that he should not have immunity, according to the poll.
While New Hampshire certainly features a more moderate electorate than Iowa, there may be a ceiling to Haley’s potential support. Voters will have their say Tuesday, and New Hampshire has offered surprises before that have turned the tide of presidential elections.
Most of the Republican Party believes that Trump will become the nominee again, despite some ex- candidates like Haley being against him.
Former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses in a blowout last week, confirming his dominance with conservatives. Candidates dropped out and endorsed Trump while the governor of Florida endorsed him.
The party will award its delegates based on the caucus. Trump will be on the ballot, but Haley won’t. Haley will be on the primary ballot, but Trump won’t.
South Carolina is on Feb. 24. In comparison to Iowa and New Hampshire, about 9 million dollars has been spent there, less than any other state.
If it’s true, that means Trump will win the nomination by the end of March. It will be for anyone not named Trump, all over but the crying.
The First Place in the United States to Vote. DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. ”Incredible” Voting Happens Every Year
In the winter, snowmobilers and Nordic skiers are able to enjoy and in the summer, hikers are able to enjoy. There were four registered Republican and two non-partisan voters for the primary.
Some people think the New Hampshire primary has fallen flat this year, with President Joe Biden not on the ballot and Ron DeSantis withdrawing from the race.
It’s special. “It really is,” Otten said. “It’s what ought to happen in every community in the United States, where there is 100% participation, everybody votes. None of the six of us can complain about the election outcome because we’ve participated.
The voting took place in the living room of Tillotson House, with the Balsams Resort undergoing renovations. It made for a congenial setting, with an 11-month-old golden retriever named Maxine greeting media and voters.
DIXVILLE NOT CH, N.H. At midnight Tuesday, the six voters who were registered in New Hampshire all cast their votes for Haley, giving her a clean sweep over the other candidates.
The resort town was the first place in the country to vote. The voters were outnumbered more than 10-to-1 by reporters from every corner of the globe — not to mention by a pile of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies.
Results aren’t indicative of how an election will end up since there is a very small sample of voters. But they do provide for an early curiosity.