A Manifesto of Xi’s New Responsibility and Understanding of the World in a Turbulent and Hostile World: China’s Third Congress and the New New World

Poised to secure a groundbreaking third term when the Communist Party congress concludes this week, Xi defended his hard-line reign in a sweeping speech and insisted that the party must remain united under his rule against an increasingly hostile West.

Before the talks, he made a public statement that a leader should think about and know where to lead his country. He should also think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world,” could be seen as an acknowledgment of new responsibility with China now a major world power. But they could also be read as the kind of lecture that Washington once delivered to Chinese leaders that Xi is now taking the opportunity to throw back at the US.

But his praise was coupled with a somber warning that the nation must stand united behind the party to cope with a world he depicted as increasingly turbulent — and hostile. And though he did not mention the United States by name, his distrust of the world’s other great power was an unmistakable backdrop to that exhortation.

“Be mindful of dangers in the midst of peace,” Mr. Xi said. “Get the house in good repair before rain comes, and prepare to undergo the major tests of high winds and waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.”

The issue of national security and corruption were the focus for Xi who for years promoted the importance of economic reform. His speech made it clearer than ever that China is moving away from the open, just and prosperous nation that many Chinese elites once thought Xi would usher in, my colleague Li Yuan writes in her New New World column.

The economic data that had been expected to show continued lackluster performance has been delayed indefinitely.

The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World, or How the US Helped Ukraine to Resolve the Cold War in Ukraine

Peter Bergen is a professor at Arizona State University and a vice president at New America. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

The United States is riven by polarization, its democracy is threatened, inflation is raging, and the Dow is down sharply this year. Yet, despite all these problems, if you zoom out and look at the world overall, the US is still doing quite well compared to its key enemies and closest allies.

Russia and China – the two nations with which the United States strives most regularly for global influence – have suffered recent dramatic declines in their standing.

The lack of basic equipment on the battlefield has been one of the biggest setbacks for Putin’s invasion. Morale within parts of Russia is low, with many civilians facing economic hardship during the bitter winter.

Led by the US, NATO is now stronger than ever, supplying Ukraine with significant amounts of weaponry and bulking up its collective defense spending. The NATO alliance is adding some formerly non-aligned countries. The alliance has become more relevant today than when Donald Trump first took office.

Meanwhile, American weaponry, such as anti-tank Javelin missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that are GPS-guided precision rockets, and US technologies, such as the Starlink satellite-based broadband Internet communication system supplied by Elon Musk, have helped to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine.

Some forces may not want to see peace talks happen. They don’t care about the life and death of Ukrainians, nor the harm on Europe. They might have strategic goals larger than Ukraine itself. This warfare must not continue,” Wang said.

The China-Russia Connection: Violations of Mao’s Third Law, Lockdowns, and Protests in the Middle East

This week, the Chinese Communist Party will choose the leader for the third time in the last seven years, paving the way for him to become the country’s most powerful leader since Mao.

Yet, Xi’s zero-Covid policy has spurred repeated massive lockdowns of China’s cities, which have damaged the nation’s economy and are becoming increasingly unpopular.

At the same time, China’s imprisonment of up to two million Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities, according to US State Department estimates, and its costly loans for its “Belt and Road” policies have not endeared it to much of the planet. Earlier this year, Pew polling found “negative views of China remain at or near historic highs in many of the 19 countries” where the organization polled.

China is watching closely, too. It has been established by the recent appointment of new military leaders from the Eastern Theater Command that Taiwan is a priority for China’s fighting forces. Last week, he urged his military to “focus all its energy on fighting.”

Another American rival, Iran, is riven by countrywide street protests that are threatening the regime arguably as much as any protests have done since 1979.

In the western hemisphere, Venezuela is also in free fall under its socialist government; almost seven million people have left the country since 2014, a quarter of the population.

China, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela share a common feature; they are autocracies – not exactly a form of government known for serving the interests of the people.

America is Never Good For You: Why the UK’s Exit from the EU is an Economic Debacle, Not a Successor of Brexit

Even America’s closest democratic allies are also facing profound problems. The UK is turning itself into a third-rank power following its disastrous decision in 2016 to vote for Brexit and pull out of the free trade zone of the European Union, which quickly lopped more than 16% of the pound’s value against the dollar that year.

The former Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to get the exit from the EU completed in 2020. The British were supposed to be freed from all the EU’s obligations.

Instead, it has proven to be an economic debacle. Many jobs in the UK that would have been filled by Europeans who were formerly free to move to Britain for work are going unfilled in sectors such as construction, farming, nursing homes, and restaurants. The EU has grown their income by 8.5% in real terms, while the UK has only grown theirs by 3.8%.

Then came UK Prime Minister Liz Truss who compounded the harm of Brexit by proposing unfunded tax cuts for the rich in September. After heightened political outcry and financial turmoil, Truss reversed the tax cut decision, but the damage was done, and the pound fell to historic lows. She is poised to become the shortest-serving prime minister in Britain.

And what about that bilateral US-UK trade deal that Conservative leaders said would supposedly wave a magic wand over the UK’s economic mess? Truss told reporters in September, “There (aren’t) currently any negotiations taking place with the US, and I don’t have an expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term.” This is government-speak acknowledging that the Americans have told the British: “How about never– is never good for you?” to quote the great New Yorker cartoon.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/opinions/america-is-great-again-bergen/index.html

The Meeting of Vice Presidents on the Status of the Korean Peninsular Regime and Implications for the Security in the Light of Covid-19

American vaccine technology used by Pfizer and Moderna helped to turn the tide against Covid-19 in the United States and other countries that used these vaccines. The Chinese and Russian vaccines weren’t as effective against Covid-19.

Americans often view immigration as a problem and so it shows the continuing attraction of the United States. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since Putin declared a partial response to the Ukrainian crisis, and tens of thousands have left Hong Kong.

Biden and Xi both said in their opening remarks that they were looking for ways to coexist despite their disagreements. The two spent lots of time together when they were both vice presidents more than a decade ago — and both men referenced their lengthy relationship in warm greetings before the talks began.

The two leaders will meet for an honest exchange at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia on Monday. The mood in the room will probably be similar to that of the nearby location.

Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory. Asked Sunday whether the results allowed him to go into Monday’s face-to-face with a stronger hand, Biden voiced confidence. He told reporters he was coming in stronger.

One conversation on the sideline of a summit isn’t enough to fully discuss the issues facing the countries. And so hopefully, the two sides will facilitate a greater discussion on these issues by many parts of the two governments.”

“On the issue of Ukraine, China has already made its position clear many times. The talks with the President won’t make a difference. On North Korea, since March last year, China has already stopped treating the denuclearization of North Korea as a fundamental element of its Korean Peninsular policy,” he said.

A senior White House official said Thursday Biden wants to use the talks to “build a floor” for the relationship – in other words, to prevent it from free falling into open conflict. The main goal of the sit-down is not about making agreements and deliverables, but getting to know one another more well, according to a US official.

Jake Sullivan said to reporters that the meeting won’t result in any major breakthroughs or dramatic shifts in the relationship.

There are low hopes for a reset with Washington in Beijing. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said that it would be an enormous over-expectation to think that the meeting can lead to lasting and significant improvement in bilateral ties.

The benefits will have a direct impact on the costs. “His most fundamental foreign policy objective now is [to] try to defend China’s interests against American confrontation.”

Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.

“The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. The other side is unlikely to make any significant changes, Kennedy said. All of those things make it less likely that significant adjustments will be made.

The fact that the two leaders are talking face to face is positive according to experts. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.

It is very important that direct communication takes place since it is clear that Xi will be able to rule for life with a tighter grip on power than ever. “There is no one else in their system who can really communicate authoritatively other than Xi Jinping,” national security adviser Sullivan said.

Biden wants to lay out what each of our red lines are when he sits down with his Chinese counterpart, but experts say that may not be as simple as it seems.

I want to be a fly on the wall and see that conversation because I don’t think the US and China have been very precise about what their red lines are. Kennedy, of CSIS, said he didn’t feel that either side has been very clear about what positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within those red lines.

China has repeatedly accused the US of “playing with fire” and hollowing out the “one China” policy. In August, Beijing’s anger reached a boiling point after Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, ignored its stern warnings and traveled to Taiwan.

Large scale military exercises around Taiwan formed a blockade and also halted dialogue with the US, in addition to a number of other areas.

Now the two leaders are sitting down in the same room – a result of weeks of intensive discussions between the two sides – Taiwan is widely expected to top their agenda. But in a sign of the contentiousness of the issue, barbs have already been traded.

“Do I believe he’s willing to compromise on certain issues? Yes,” Biden told reporters afterward about his meeting with Xi. “We were very blunt with one another about places where we disagreed.”

But to the surprise of many, the meeting featured televised images of smiling officials, handshakes, and a commitment to reopening lines of communication on urgent global issues. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who had sparred with his Chinese counterparts at the 2021 summit in Alaska, is now expected to visit China next year.

Some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will be viewed as positive, for example returning suspended climate and military talks.

There was a joint position between the US and China on climate change and Russia’s use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine at the summit in Indonesia, and that resulted in a boost for the global climate conference in Egypt.

Biden told Xi that Beijing has an obligation to temper North Korean missile and nuclear activity that has the Pacific region on edge.

After talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit, Leon Panetta, a former White House chief of staff, defense secretary and CIA chief, expressed cautious optimism.

Panetta believes that the meeting could be important if it leads to a dialogue between the two countries about issues they need to deal with in a more diplomatic way.

DEEP INTERACTION Between China and the United States: A First Face-to-Face Exchange after Biden’s Success in the Midterms

“Neither side should try to remold the other in one’s own image or seek to change or even subvert the other’s system,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

Washington has a foreign policy that has come full circle since part of the reason for engaging China during the 1970s Cold War was to open strategic gaps between Beijing and Moscow.

Both leaders have been courting autocratic regimes. Russia and China are both attempting to become the center of a new alliance to counter the West. The project has faltered; it is far from a resounding success. But it is very much a work in progress.

The first face-to-face exchange between the two since Biden became president was today. It took place after both leaders had just strengthened their respective political positions at home, analysts say.

Yu Jie, a senior research fellow on China at the London based think tank Chatham House, says that with Biden’s success in the mid-terms he is in a stronger position to steer Washington’s relationship with Beijing.

“It may be a diplomatic reset of some sorts but not one in substance where both sides begin to genuinely approach each other in good faith and a preparedness to compromise,” Lee added.

Chinese President Vladimir Putin and the Xi-Biden Planned Visit to the Kremlin: The “Taiwan Question”

The State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also visit China in person sometime early next year to follow up on the Xi-Biden meeting.

The US imposed export bans on certain advanced chip technology in order to discourage the use of it in military and artificial intelligence equipment in China.

“The world is big enough for the two countries to develop themselves and prosper together,” tweeted Hua Chunying, a foreign ministry spokesperson who accompanied Xi in his meeting with Biden.

“I didn’t think there was any attempt by China to invade Taiwan,” Biden said, despite intense media speculation over Beijing’s intentions.

China regards the “Taiwan question” an internal matter. It is “at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations,” wrote Hua, the spokesperson, on Twitter after the meeting ended.

According to a Chinese statement, the president told his counterpart that China had a clear stance on the Ukrainian crisis. The war should be solved by involved countries stopping politicizing and instrumentalizing the world economy. President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday he is readying for an upcoming visit by Xi to Moscow, according to the Kremlin.

Beijing wanted talks as soon as possible, and said nuclear weapons were off-limits, but Russia seems less committed to this idea. Putin said this week that he was suspending a nuclear arms control treaty.

Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, put out three “bottom lines” a year ago that they wanted the U.S. to agree to in order for relations to improve.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has upped ties with Taiwan, with lawmakers including Pelosi visiting the island since August. Congress is considering drawing on the U.S. weapons stockpile to arm the island at American expense. Biden said during the press conference that the U.S. policy is unchanged on Taiwan.

Chinese tech stocks and stock markets buoyed by the first G20 summit: “Building a floor” under Beijing- Washington tensions

Biden got a better position in the G20 because of the Democrats’ win in the Senate, but he is up for reelection in two years.

Analysts said the meeting could open the door for stronger ties between the world’s top economies. Stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were buoyed as a result, with technology giants such as Alibaba

            (BABA) and Tencent

            (TCEHY) soaring on Tuesday.

Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, said the goal of the meeting was to “build a floor” under declining relations between Beijing and Washington.

Ken Cheung believes that the meeting was a good sign that both sides are willing to find common ground.

On Tuesday, the Hong KongHSI Index was on track to record a third straight day of gains. The index, boosted by China’s latest policy shift towards a gradual reopening of borders and a sweeping rescue package for the ailing property sector, has soared 14% since last Thursday.

The Chinese technology shares that had been hit by a regulatory squeeze at home and rising tension abroad led markets higher on Tuesday. In Hong Kong, shares of Chinese firms were up by over 10%.

They said the reiteration of the US stance on Taiwan and its policy of “One China” was helpful, as was the fight against Russia’s use of nuclear weapons.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/business/us-china-g20-meeting-stronger-ties-intl-hnk/index.html

Xi’s trip to China after the G20 summit in Hangzhou and the role of Australia in the Censored Ukraine crisis

“This was far more progress than we, or indeed most commentators had expected, and dominates what may otherwise turn out to have been a fairly irrelevant G20 summit,” the ING analysts said.

Scott Morrison had brief discussions with China’s president at the G20 in Japan, when leaders of the two countries last met. Six years have elapsed since the leaders from the two sides met at the G-20 meeting in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.

On Monday, the Chinese leader pushed back at a central premise of Biden’s foreign policy – the global clash between democracy and autocracy, and the willingness of Western countries to view relations with Beijing through this prism.

In a sign of Xi’s busy schedule, the Chinese leader and French President Emmanuel Macron squeezed in a meeting early on Tuesday, before both leaders showed up at the opening of the G20 summit.

“Xi stressed China’s position on the Ukraine crisis is clear and consistent, advocating a ceasefire, a stop to war and peace talks,” a readout of the bilat from Chinese state media CCTV said.

France, like many other European countries, has grown more concerned with the security of China in recent years.

For the majority of the pandemic, Xi stayed in China instead of travelling outside the country.

Part of the reason for the anticipated in-person diplomacy is that ties between Beijing and Australia have not been good over the past few years.

The two countries have been locked in a bruising trade dispute and diplomatic freeze since early 2020, when China slapped tariffs on Australia following its call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

Comments on Albanese’s ‘Successful meeting of the Chinese Prime Minister and the Leader of the South China Sea’

Announcing his meeting with Xi after arriving in Bali on Monday, Albanese said having the meeting alone is a “successful outcome,” pointing to the lack of dialogue at the top level for years.

He told reporters that there are no preconditions for the meeting, adding that dialogue with our major trading partners is not in Australia’s interest.

The South China Sea, Taiwan and the South Pacific policies of the Chinese government are at odds with Australia’s core interests according to John Lee, a former national security adviser to the Australian government.

A world affairs columnist is a former CNN producer and correspondent named Frida Ghitis. She writes an opinion column for World Politics Review, is a commentator on CNN and contributes to The Washington Post. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. Take a peek at the opinion on CNN.

The Predictive Moment of the Midterm Elections: Russia’s Worst Explanation of Crime in the 21st Century

Biden pointed out that the results of the midterm elections “sent a very strong message around the world” that the US will remain engaged. But there was a bigger message. The most important signal to the world from the midterms is about the health of America’s democracy. The US elections not only went smoothly and peacefully, but they also dealt a harsh blow to many of the most antidemocratic elements in the country.

As Biden and Xi were meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an emotional, triumphant return to the devastated, now liberated city of Kherson, the one provincial capital that Russian invaders had conquered.

Putin and Xi, the world’s leading autocrats, looked ascendant, unstoppable even. Meanwhile, Western democracies appeared unsettled, roiled by sometimes violent protests against Covid-19 restrictions. Putin was preparing for triumph in Ukraine. Xi was hosting the Olympics, basking in attention, and preparing to solidify his control of China.

Putin, in particular, poses a grave threat. He had painted himself into a corner. And he is not about to surrender in Ukraine. Although Biden has been careful to support Ukraine, a drastic escalation by Russia is still one of the greatest dangers in the year ahead.

Putin chose to stay away from the G20 summit, avoiding confrontations with world leaders as he becomes a pariah on the global stage.

Xi, Putin, and the Russian Invasion of Crimea: What does Russia have to say about their relations with each other?

To be sure, Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. After securing his third term as China’s leader, Xi can now rule for as long as he likes. He does not have to worry about elections, a critical press, or an opposition party. He is essentially the absolute ruler of a mighty country for many years to come.

If the two systems are to compete in the 21st century, it is important for them to show that democracy works, defeating efforts of China and Russia to undermine it, and proving that unprovoked wars of aggression will not succeed.

Since the Russian invasion began, Xi has not spoken with the Ukrainian President, though he has spoken with Putin a number of times.

The two leaders will primarily discuss bilateral relations between their countries, and exchange views on regional issues and their strategic partnership, Peskov spoke on Thursday.

“Our relations have never been directed against third countries,” Mr. Wang told Mr. Putin, according to a Russian translation of his remarks. Our relations have withstood pressure and are developing stably.

The world looks very different more than a year into the war, and the dynamic between the two partners has changed.

On Thursday, Russia launched whatUkrainian officials say is one of the biggest missile attacks since the war began in February, with an explosion that rattled villages and cities and killed three people.

The country is bracing for a Russian plan to take over the power grid and plunge it into darkness as Ukrainians celebrate Christmas and New Year together.

The Rise of the Communist Party: How the United States and the World are preparing to face a new stage of Covid response in the midst of the New Year

China, too, is growing more isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Modi urged Putin to move toward peace, even though India did not condemn the Russian invasion.

While he signaled that he hoped to mend relations with the Western world, his nationalist agenda and friendship with Russia will make it difficult.

The two countries have increased their trade due to high energy prices around the world.

The policy tools that Xiaojing can use are limited at the moment. Domestic support for Xi has fallen dramatically. His third term does not actually start with a rosy picture.”

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. You can sign up here.

China will enter the new century with a great deal of doubt and the prospect of seeing light at the end of the epidemic tunnel.

Some countries seem cautious to let Chinese tourists into their countries, imposing new requirements on them for negative Covid tests before travel, as the tightly-sealed borders are gradually opening up. And just how quickly – or keenly – global visitors will return to China is another question.

“We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Xi said in a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech. “Everyone is holding on with great fortitude, and the light of hope is right in front of us. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”

The sudden lifting of restrictions last month led to an explosion of cases, with little preparation in place to deal with the surging numbers of patients and deaths.

The country’s fragile heath system is scrambling to cope: fever and cold medicines are hard to find, hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors and nurses are stretched to the limit, while crematoriums are struggling to keep up with an influx of bodies.

And experts warn the worst is yet to come. While Beijing may have been the peak of the outbreak, lesser developed cities and the rural hinterland are still expecting more infections.

Theoutlook is not good. Some studies estimate the death toll could be in excess of a million, if China fails to roll out booster shots and antiviral drugs fast enough.

The government has launched a booster campaign for the elderly, but many remain reluctant to take it due to concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy will require significant time and effort, when the country’s medical workers are already stretched thin.

Can the Covid Epidemic Instability be Overruled by a Large-Scale Chinese Industry? An Analyst’s Perspective

A boost to economies that rely on Chinese demand will be provided by a rise in China’s growth. There will be more international production and travel. Increased demand will cause the prices of energy and raw materials to go up.

Bo Zhuang, senior sovereign analyst at Loomis Sayles & Company, said that China is not prepared to deal with Covid.

The experts think the economy will recover after March. In a recent research report, HSBC economists projected a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, but 5% growth for 2023.

The Chinese people are very happy with the partial opening of the border after the end ofQuarantine and the resumption of outbound travel.

Though some residents voiced concern online about the rapid loosening of restrictions during the outbreak, many more are eagerly planning trips abroad – travel websites recorded massive spikes in traffic within minutes of the announcement on December 26.

Chinese nationals in other countries told CNN that they had been unable to return to their home countries for a long time because of the lengthy and still-in-placeQuarantine. That stretch meant major life moments missed and spent apart: graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths.

Some countries have offered a warm welcome back, with foreign embassies and tourism departments posting invitations to Chinese travelers on Chinese social media sites. But others are more cautious, with many countries imposing new testing requirements for travelers coming from China and its territories.

For the past 3 years the rules and regulations were tossed aside. But China had not used the time to push for increased vaccination or stock up on certain drugs. Reports cite an estimate from China’s top health officials, as well as various models, which predict that a million deaths are the result of the disease.

All eyes are on China to see if it can repair its relations after it emerges from a self-imposed isolation.

The Rise of Autocracy at the New Millennium: How Do the Chinese and the Russians Survive China’s Cold War?

The lack of face-to-face diplomacy and the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the public did not help.

There are expected to be more high level exchanges this year with the US Secretary of State, French President and Dutch Prime Minister all expected to visit Beijing.

Tensions over Taiwan, technological containment, and China’s support for Russia may Flare in the New Year, which was highlighted by Xi during a virtual meeting with Russian President Putin on December 30.

Xi said the two sides should continue to enhance political mutual trust and “always be each other’s true friends and good partners.” China and Belarus “should support each other’s chosen development path, support each other in safeguarding core interests, oppose interference in internal affairs by external forces, and safeguard the sovereignty and political security of both countries.”

“(The war) has been a nuisance for China this past year and has affected China’s interest in Europe,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center. “But the damage is not significant enough that China will abandon Russia.”

There was an open question about it. At the time, many believed that autocracy would not only win, but would prove to be the better system. How many people still think that?

How many believe Russia, China or Iran offer a better model than an open society with all its foibles and challenges? Do many people believe the US would be better off with a more authoritarian president?

Due to the public display of its fatal flaws, the appeal of autocracy has waned in the past year. They will make mistakes if there is no way to tell them they are wrong. The more powerful and ruthless the ruler, the higher the likelihood that no one dares challenge his wisdom, even if he leads his nation toward a cliff.

The autocracy brothers wanted the world to think their system was superior, a message that would preemptively quiet any doubts at home. For 16 consecutive years, according to the non-partisan democracy monitor Freedom House, democracy was losing ground. Authoritarian leaders and illiberal forces were on the rise; only about 20% of the world’s population lived in what it calls “Free countries”, the organization’s research showed.

In 2022, while these global strongmen struggled, self-assured “geniuses” like Elon Musk – who more than once appeared to side with autocrats – revealed their own shortcomings, and oppressed populations fed up with decades of tyranny demanded change.

The West was unified by the bravery of the Ukrainians. In the United States, large majority came together to support Ukraine despite their best efforts.

NATO, a democratic defense alliance, was strengthened by the invasion. Even countries that had always maintained their neutral stance wanted to join.

Human Rights Defenders of the “Chinese Women, Life, Freedom” Act – The Case for a “Democracy of Iran”

The theocracy of Iran resulted in women fighting for their rights. The regime – not coincidentally now supplying arms to Russia – responded with more violence, killing hundreds, according to human rights organizations.

The activists of the ” Woman, Life, Freedom” did not think they would continue to defy the regime. How far will they go? How far will the regime go to end them? Will the rest of the world respond?

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html

The Plight of Xi: President Trump’s New Presidential Campaign in Brazil, France, Russia and China, and the Case Against Russia

Former President Donald Trump launched a new presidential campaign. The British called it a lead balloon. He is getting lost in a sea of pity after many of his top choices flopped in the elections. Even his calls for Republicans to unite behind Kevin McCarthy as the new House Speaker seemed to do little to quell the rebellion this week. It was democracy that displayed its messy wrangling in the struggle over the speakership. The legal troubles of Trump seem endless.

In Brazil, Trump’s doppelganger, Jair Bolsonaro, lost his bid for reelection. He wouldn’t admit that he lost to the President who defeated him, Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro decided to go to Florida.

In the UK, Boris Johnson lost the premier’s job and after a scandal with Liz Truss, he became prime minister. Back when Johnson was leading his country out of the European Union, populists across Europe wanted their own versions of Brexit. That is not what we hear anymore. French President Emmanuel Macron defeated his populist opponent, Marine Le Pen who, like other European populists, had to run from her record of closeness to Putin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was smiling in February of last year as he stood beside his Chinese counterpart. Putin would do something about the invasion of Ukraine just after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended.

The United States must aim to prevent the formation of a unified force of aggressive antidemocratic regimes in order to fortify NATO and strengthen alliances.

But the rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to unravel, and China had to rethink its commitment.

Is Xi in or out with Putin? Xi seems to want it both ways. He wants the relationship with a country that invaded its neighbor without provocation, but he wants to present himself as a responsible global leader, rather than the democratic Western model.

According to US intelligence, Russia has bought artillery shells from North Korea, another notorious dictatorship, which denies its involvement in a war whose morality is beyond the pale.

Iran, whose repressive, interventionist regime has also turned it, like Russia, into a pariah to much of the world, now finds itself being courted by both Moscow and Beijing.

The first Iranian president to visit China in over 20 years occurred this week. At the invitation of Xi, the trip aims to implement a 25-year strategic partnership pact between the two countries.

The Beijing-Tehran ties have raised alarms among both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, who fear China’s support could help Tehran evade sanctions related to its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, support for terrorism and human rights abuses.

Clearly, there’s an internal contradiction in Xi’s dual goals. It is hard to make analliance of rule breaking autocrats and assorted dictators if you want to elevate your standing to a respected global leader.

Beijing is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine, its top diplomat announced Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as a war.

Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.

Wang suggested that the conflict was caused by the U.S., as well as Western allies who were trying to mess up Asia.

And European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen told CNN on Saturday: “We need more proof that China isn’t working with Russia, and we aren’t seeing that now.”

In September 2022, Putin conceded Beijing had “questions and concerns” over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of diverging views on the war.

China’s top diplomat will also visit Russia this month, according to its foreign ministry, in the first visit to the country from a Chinese official in that role since the war began.

Warfare is coming: China’s warning about weapons supply to the Ukraine, warning from the secretary of state and from Xi’s visit to Ukraine

According to CNN, US officials have been concerned with the intelligence they’ve received and have shared it with allies and partners. A US readout said that during a meeting on the sidelines of the conference, Blinken raised the issue and warned Wang about the consequences.

“The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.

The warfare cannot continue. We need to think about what efforts we can make to bring this warfare to an end,” Wang said at the conference.

“To date, we have seen Chinese companies – and, of course, in China there is really no distinction between private companies and the state – we have seen them provide non-lethal support to … Russia for use in the Ukraine,” Blinken said.

“The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they’re considering providing lethal support. We made it clear to them that it would cause a serious problem for us and our relationship.

American officials will be watching to see if China provides weapons to Russia during the upcoming summit between Xi and Putin.

As Joe Biden flew to Ukraine to meet with his counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, China’s top diplomat was on his way to Russia.

The two trips that took place just days before the war’s one-year anniversary show how the fault lines between the world’s two powers are widening.

“We do not add fuel to the fire, and we’re against reaping benefits from this crisis,” Wang said in a thinly veiled dig at the US, echoing the propaganda messaging that regularly made China’s nightly prime-time news program – that the US is intentionally prolonging the war because its arms manufacturers are earning fat profits from weapon sales.

China and the economics of the Cold War: Why should Europe care? What should we learn from Beijing’s failures in the war in the Middle East?

He urged officials to think about what Europe’s role should be in bringing peace to the region.

“Who is calling for dialogue and peace? And who is handing out knives and encouraging confrontation? The international community can see clearly.

Previously, Beijing had carefully avoided actions that could trigger secondary sanctions, which would deal a devastating blow to an economy hampered by three years of costly zero-Covid policy.

Though Beijing claimed impartiality in the conflict and no advance knowledge of Russia’s intent, it has refused to condemn Moscow and parroted Kremlin lines blaming NATO for provoking the conflict.

The Chinese news media shared the footage from the meeting that shows Mr Wang talking to Mr. Putin. “But Chinese-Russian relations have withstood the test of international turbulence, and are mature and durable — as steadfast as Mount Tai,” he said, referring to a famed Chinese mountain.

This week, Beijing also sent its top diplomat, Wang Yi, to Moscow where he met with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin among other Russian officials and reiterated the only way to resolve the crisis was through diplomatic negotiation.

In his opening remarks, Mr. Putin highlighted the economic aspect of the China-Russia relationship, predicting that the countries’ annual trade volume could reach $200 billion as early as this year, compared with $185 billion last year.

“Everything is moving forward, developing, we are reaching new frontiers,” Mr. Putin said. We are talking about economic issues.

Not one to shrink from questions or to shy away from calling out even allies if he feels they could be doing more to help Ukraine, he nevertheless tread carefully when talking about China.

The Chinese plan will not be disclosed by Nuland. There is a meeting of the UN Security Council where China may make a presentation. The Secretary of State is going to the meeting.

Beijing and the Ukranian War: China, the United States and the European Union amidst the diplomatic charm of the Cold War in Europe

“Russia would be free to use a ceasefire to only further entrench their positions in Ukraine to rebuild, refit and refresh their forces so that they can restart attacks on Ukraine at a time of their choosing.”

The position paper was first discussed last week by top diplomat Wang Yi at a security conference in Munich, as he attempted to cast Beijing as a responsible negotiator for peace during a diplomatic charm offensive in Europe.

Conflict and war do not benefit anyone. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control,” the paper said.

It also appears to criticize the wide-ranging economic sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries on Russia. There are new problems that can be created bylateral sanctions and maximum pressure. “Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis.”

Much of the language used in the document appears targeted at the West. In a thinly veiled criticism of the United States, the paper said, “Cold War mentality” should be abandoned.

“The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly,” it said, apparently echoing Moscow’s view the West provoked the war through the expansion of NATO.

Jake Sullivan, the US National Security advisor, said the war could end tomorrow if Russia stopped attackingUkraine and withdrew its forces.

In Beijing, the ambassador of the European Union to China, Jorge Toledo, told reporters at a briefing that China’s position paper was not a peace proposal, adding that the EU is “studying the paper closely,” according to Reuters.

Zhanna Leshchynska, Ukraine’s Chargé d’Affaires to China, told a Beijing meeting that China should work for peace in Ukranian and urge Russia to withdraw its troops.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Embedded in the Ukraine Crisis: “Everything we’ve learned from China,” Wang told Putin at a meeting on the anniversary of Russian invasion of Ukraine

“This requires us to identify changes more voluntarily and respond to the changes more actively to further strengthen our comprehensive strategic partnership,” Wang said.

The paper stated that the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis is dialogue and negotiation. Efforts should be supported in order to peaceful settlement of the crisis.

“The China-Russia relationship has stood the test of the drastic changes in the world landscape and become mature and tenacious,” Wang told Putin, according to a Chinese foreign ministry read-out from the meeting.

There is not very much leverage involved. The document lays out broad, general principles, but no real reason why you might want to cease and desist, right? There’s no big appeal that you’re getting something. There’s no big cost if you don’t comply,” said Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at National University of Singapore.

If the allies remained united, Zelensky was confident that his country would be defeated by the Russians within a year.

On the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Mr. Zelensky offered a broad overview of where the war stood, the challenges Ukraine faced and the opportunities in the months ahead.

Mr Zelensky initially ignored the question about the reports that Beijing was considering giving Moscow lethal weapons. He said that he wanted to make sure China didn’t arm Russia when it was raised a second time.

Mr. Zelensky had the question translated a second time and then engaged the reporter directly, telling her that it was not about geography or geopolitics but basic principles.

Israel’s most terrible moment of the war: the case of the first sight of Russian atrocities in Ukraine, according to Zelensky

Is China certain that innocents should not be killed? Should a nuclear power plant not be occupied? That respect for the sovereign rights of a nation means an invader should withdraw?

“I am already starting public diplomatic relations here,” he said, before switching to English to stress his openness to direct talks with China. “We have so many common issues, we have to speak between us with no one else.”

Iran is already providing attack drones to Russia, and the West has warned the Moscow is also seeking to acquire ballistic missiles. In this situation, Mr. Zelensky was asked about Israel. Israel and Ukraine share a common enemy, he was asked, so why are they not stronger allies?

He said he understood Israel’s long history with Russia but wanted it to take a harder stance against it since the start of the war.

There were hard questions about possible internal disputes in his government. There was also a journalist from Azerbaijan who simply wanted a selfie with the Ukrainian leader, for his son. Mr. Zelensky agreed.

The leader of the Ukrainian nation said that the most horrible moment of the war was when he first saw atrocities committed by Russian soldiers. “It was horrible,” he said.

Even if that answer would only be determined on the battlefield, the questions about how and when the war could be won were the most frequent.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/24/world/russia-ukraine-zelensky-news/new-york-times-reporters-reflect-on-the-moments-from-the-war-that-are-seared-in-their-minds

Belarus’ PM Alexander Lukashenko meets with China in the SCO summit summit summit on September 15 – 24 septembre 2001: Beijing’s Embassy in Beijing

Mr. Zelensky said negotiations with Moscow wouldn’t make sense at the moment. He said Russia needs to respect the right of Ukrainians to live on their land before talks can take place.

Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko is scheduled to hold talks with Chinese officials in Beijing from Tuesday to Thursday at the invitation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China’s Foreign Ministry announced Sunday.

Putin and the other leader agreed to upgrade their country’s ties to an all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership after they met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Uzbekistan in September.

Lukashenko could try to focus on boosting economic relations with China during this visit, because of the damaged ties with the west and his interest indiversifying the Russian economy.

The United States and its allies recently imposed sanctions on the country after Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to enterUkraine through the border.

It has been a decade since China launched the Belt and Road development initiative, but trade between the two has doubled in the last year.

In a call between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his Belarussian counterpart Sergei Aleinik on Friday, Qin pledged that China would “support Belarus in its efforts to safeguard national stability and development,” and “oppose external interference in Belarus’s internal affairs and illegal unilateral sanctions against the country,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that Lukashenko would be an opportunity to further progress relations between the two countries.

The Chinese state media said Lukashenko was welcomed with a 21-gun salute in Tiananmen Square and that he had a meeting with honor guard troops.

The United States had a negative reaction to the Chinese policy paper, although it was responded to positively by the leaders of France and Ukraine.

Russian attacks on the Luhansk region in the eastern part of the Bakhmut city and the northern border regions of the former Soviet republic

Lukashenko has been president of the former Soviet republic since 1994, and won a sixth term in 2020 in a election widely viewed as fraudulent. After the election, Lukashenko retained power and set off months of street protests that led to the violent suppression of the protests.

Ukrainian forces are mostly holding their positions around the fiercely contested eastern city of Bakhmut, but at a high price, according to one commander.

On the ground. There were Russian attacks on the central Poltava region as well as the Bilohorivka and Kreminna areas in the eastern Luhansk region, Ukrainian officials said. The General Staff said several civilians were wounded in Russian rocket attacks. The frontline that runs north-South along the Luhansk-Kharkiv border is being bombarded.

The United States will not receive a Russia’s note on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, Russian deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryaabnikov told RIA Novosti Wednesday. Russia will continue to observe the central provisions of the treaty, according to the note. It was brought about by the suspension of Russian participation in the last remaining pact that regulates the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals. State Department spokesman Ned Price said that the US was still in compliance with the treaty but that it could change depending on what Russia does.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-03-1-23/h_d4c447144619de3dfc7e5d0963315bd8

Xi’s China trip to Russia and the Ukraine: a journey of friendship, cooperation, and peace, and his role in shaping the world war in Ukraine

There is no Serbian nationals in the group of fighters, after the last one left the area a couple of months ago, according to the boss of the group. The comments come after Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić accused Wagner of trying to recruit Serbs to fight in Ukraine.

But in many Western capitals the optics of the visit will look very different – two autocrats who have long described themselves as firm friends shaking hands and banqueting while a conflagration in Europe rages.

It comes just a few days after China restored diplomatic ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia after brokering a rapprochement between them.

Yet hours after the announcement of Xi’s trip on Friday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Putin, accusing him of war crimes over Moscow’s forcible deportation of Ukrainian children.

The leader of China will soon be dining with a war criminal whom he has called a friend and is affirming his no limits partnership with a global pariah who wreaked havoc on the global economy.

For Xi, who this month locked up a rare third term as China’s president, the Russia trip offers a chance to strengthen relations with a key neighbor and partner-of-convenience. The trip could help China burnish its credentials as a global powerhouse.

In its diplomatic dealings with Moscow and Ukraine, Beijing has a different stance than it has in the past.

In a signed article published in Russian state media Monday, Xi framed his upcoming visit as “a journey of friendship, cooperation and peace,” vowing to open “a new chapter” of bilateral relations.

On the same day as the People’s Daily published a letter from Putin extolling the virtues of the leader of the Chinese Communist Party, it was also published a letter from the leader of the Western powers.

The timing of the meeting gives the Chinese leader the opportunity to shape the trajectory of the war in Ukraine, which he believes is due to Beijing’s recent diplomatic win in the Middle East.

“But the war will be a much taller task. Hart said the question was whether or not Xi uses his leverage to shape Russia’s behavior in the war going forward.

Despite Beijing’s calls for peace, it has provided Moscow with much needed diplomatic and economic support during the invasion.

Days before the visit, the Russian defense military said Russia, China and Iran have completed three-way naval exercises in the Arabian Sea – sending a powerful message of defiance to the Western alliance.

The plan failed to generate a lot of enthusiasm in Moscow and Kyiv, and it was criticized by Western officials for lacking substance and failing to recognize Russia’s violation of Ukraine sovereignty.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said any framework offered by Beijing would be “one sided and reflect only the Russian perspective.”

“Neither Moscow nor Kyiv appear ready to make the concessions needed to bring the war to an end, and that is not something Beijing can fundamentally change,” he said.

China’s President Xi Jinping and Russian Foreign Minister Vladimir Putin: The prospects for a step towards a more American-American peace solution to the North Korean problem

The Biden administration said it is watching China’s President Xi Jinping’s trip to Moscow “very, very closely” as top officials express concerns about any calls for a ceasefire at this time.

He said the US would “reject” any calls for a ceasefire out of the high-stakes meeting as he reiterated that it would not be “in China’s best interest” to provide arms to Ukraine.

The two countries don’t trust one another, but they are pushing each other back against the West in order to push back on American leadership.

“It was a convenient excuse for him to go in advance of Xi’s visit to show that he’s still the commander-in-chief, that he’s still in charge, and that his military still has occupied territory inside Ukraine. There’s no doubt that, that he could see for himself — or we would hope that he would see for himself — how badly his military is actually doing where the fighting is actually occurring,” he said.

China’s leader Xi Jinping lands in Moscow on Monday to show support for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and probe possible steps toward peace in Ukraine.

Paul Haenle, a China expert and former director of the National Security Council, said that the visit to Moscow can be cast in the context of grand international diplomacy.

Rana Mitter, a professor of Chinese history and politics at the University of Oxford, says China may hope the Moscow trip will help persuade some in Europe “to take a more America-skeptic position on questions of security and economic cooperation.”

“The mood has been set. The framework has been set. China is seen as a potential peacemaker that goes where other countries can’t. But the actual solution still looks in some ways much, much more vague, much more fluid,” said Mitter.

The Chinese aren’t really trying to be the real problem-solvers in this case according to a senior fellow at the Stimson Center.

The Six Party Talks on North Korea’s nuclear program, which Haenle took part in, found Beijing good at bringing sceptics to the table. He says Chinese officials rarely tried to get the parties to move the ball.

The United States, South Korea, and Japan were trying to find a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue while the Chinese were looking for a way to manage it.

“Are Russian forces going to play an active role in ending the Ukraine conflict?” Haenle’s reaction to the news on the e+e- –> AKPb colliders

“Whether they’ll play an active role in ending the Ukraine conflict, I think, is probably something that we will not see here in the near term,” Haenle said.