Why is Ukraine so bad now? What happens when law enforcement and intelligence officials try to plug leaked documents? A former Justice Department leak czar Brandon Van Grack

Additional documents have also emerged. The Washington Post reported Monday on another leaked document with a bleak assessment from February that challenges with troops, ammunition and equipment could cause Ukraine to fall “well short” of its goals in its planned spring counteroffensive.

The discovery comes at a time when the Ukrainians are preparing to launch a counteroffensive in the spring, and it is not known what impact the new material will have on the war.

Brandon Van Grack is a former Justice Department leak Czar and he believes that national security damage has been done.

“The only debate now is how much damage there was and the threat is still live,” he says. This is the priority right now because we don’t know if the individual has access to classified information or if there could be more leaks.

Van Grack held multiple national security-focused roles at the Justice Department, including leading the investigation into Edward Snowden after the then-National Security Agency contractor leaked thousands of documents in 2013. Van Grack is now a partner at Morrison & Foerster, one of the companies that represents the site where the Ukraine documents were shared.

He spoke with Morning Edition’s A Martnez about what he thinks could be happening behind the scenes when law enforcement and intelligence officials try to plug a leak.

Through the weekend, the FBI along with the Department of Justice are identifying third parties, looking for relevant information, and issuing search warrants and subpoenas. The intelligence committee is working with the FBI to find out who had access to the documents and what features they had.

There are multiple places to start, which is from the FBI, DOJ perspective, all of the reporting of companies and individuals who may have posted this or where it may have been posted, you’re collecting that evidence. At the same time, you are closely coordinating with the intelligence community. There are multiple documents, and there are images in those documents … and I think you are culling through that information to try to narrow the group of individuals who may have had access to it.

You’re walking and chewing gum at the same time. Right now the focus needs to be, and is, identifying who this person or these persons are, period. That has to be the priority. When you get to that point, you need to figure out if they know of someone and then you need to make a charging document. But right now the priority has to be the identification and ensuring that there are no further leaks coming.

There should be some overlap of individuals and expertise that we don’t know because of special counsel appointments. And so certainly there’s at least some subset of those persons who have been sprinting for the last few months on those cases and now would probably need to do some sort of pivot to focus on this for the time being.

This case shows that the laws regarding retaining and disclosures of classified information need to be enforced criminally. Millions of Americans have access to a lot of information that can’t be monitored. To enforce these laws, you must control access, and make sure that it’s not disclosed to people who don’t have access.

Military briefings on Ukraine’s future plans for a spring counteroffensive against Russia: CNN security and military analyst Mark Hertling

The documents, which appear to date from February and March, detail many of Ukraine’s perceived military shortfalls as Kyiv prepares for a spring counteroffensive against Russia.

The documents also showed that Russia has still not solved their military offensive problems, predicting a stalemate between the two sides for the foreseeable future.

“Russia’s grinding campaign of attrition in the Donbas region is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting Mosco’s goal to capture the entire region in 2023,” states one of the classified documents.

Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, a CNN national security and military analyst, said that the challenges Ukraine faces with its planned counteroffensive have been clear for weeks, including the need to integrate new equipment and new troops and ensure that a sufficient supply chain is in place. He did not think that the document leak would alter Kyiv’s plans.

It is similar to what US officials have said publicly about the conflict, as well as top Biden administration officials have said the conflict is likely to drag on for months.

The assessment of the war laid out in the briefings is detailed and damning, despite the fact that the Ukrainians have made great strides during the war.

An official from a country part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing agreement with the US told CNN previously that it was alarming to see the leaked Ukraine war information handicapping the country on the battlefield.

The official said that it did not help to have a private US assessment pointing to a likely yearlong stalemate.

During a call on Tuesday Blinken “reaffirmed the ironclad U.S. support and vehemently rejected any attempts to cast doubt on Ukraine’s capacity to win on the battlefield,” Kuleba wrote Tuesday on Twitter.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/11/politics/pentagon-documents-ukraine-war-assessment/index.html

The Status of Ukrainian Forces in the Light of the CNN Documents Leaked by the U.S., Ukraine, and other Security Forces

At a press conference Tuesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that the department will “turn over every rock until we find the source” of the leaked intelligence documents.

CNN reported that there is at least one document that appears to be altered, which listed the casualty numbers for both Russians and Ukrainians before being spread on pro-Russian Telegram channels.

“These documents are static. They are a picture of a specific time. Both United States and Ukraine have the ability to modify what they’re doing and how they’re approaching this issue, and we certainly have plenty of time for Ukraine to do so,” House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday.

In February, a document states that the US has assessed Ukraine and has determined that they can generate 12 combat brigades for the spring counteroffensive. The document says six of the brigades would be ready by the end of March and the rest by the end of April.

There are assessments of the Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut, which has seen a lot of fighting this year. The intelligence assessment in February included details on villages where the military had left and where it was still in control.