The Turkish Presidential Campaign: Restoring the Faith of Islam with Refugees, Syrians and the Implications for the Economy and Turkey‘s Inflation

Analysts say that while the race is close, it appears that the leader of the Turkish Republic will extend his tenure as long as possible.

Since then, the candidates have hardened their tone against refugees and Kurdish militants, as they scrambled to appeal to Turkey’s hard-line nationalists.

In order to win the race, Kilicdaroglu promised to send back refugees and not have peace negotiations with Kurds.

Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have seen that message. A campaign to build housing in northern Syria for the 1 million returning Syrians has been launched by the president.

“Coming from home … I didn’t see many Turks on the road,” she says. Syrians, Afghans, Arabs, that’s all. Right and left they speak in foreign languages, no one speaks Turkish,” she adds. “And this won’t get better, it will get worse.”

Many in Turkey regard Syrian refugees who have been under Turkey’s temporary protection after fleeing the war in neighboring Syria as a burden on the country, and their repatriation became a key issue in the election.

The underlying message from the leader of Turkey is that he is making Turkey Muslim and great again and that all good muslims should vote for him.

Turkey’s elections won’t likely be decided by the economy according to an analyst at the Cato Institute.

Still, Erdogan has retained the backing of conservative voters who remain devoted to him for lifting Islam’s profile in the country that was founded on secular principles and for raising the country’s influence in world politics.

If the economy crashes before Erdogan serves out his term, Osman fears for his own life. Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policy is not sustainable, he says.

Turkey’s official annual inflation climbed to a whopping 85% last October, before easing to just below 44% in April, although independent economists estimate the actual rate is much higher.

Critics blame Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies for skyrocketing inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living crisis. The government was faulted for the slow response to the earthquake in Turkey that killed over 50,000 people.

Osman keeps a close eye on the value of the Turkish lira, as the news lately has been depressing. The conversion rate was around 1.50 liras to the dollar when he was prime minister. This week, the lira sank to a new record low beyond 20 liras to the dollar.

After becoming prime minister, Erdogan assumed the job that had previously been largely ceremonial, and after he became president, he gained sweeping executive powers.

One resident standing outside a currency exchange, Osman, says Erdogan has had enough time in power. Like most people interviewed for this story, Osman doesn’t want to use his family name because he’s worried about retaliation for speaking to foreign media about the election.

An Erdogan win has implications beyond Turkey, which is a regional powerhouse, a NATO member, and a strategic yet frustrating ally to the United States. Turkey has refused to participate in Western sanctions, while keeping close ties with Russia, and held up NATO’s expansion by refusing to accept Sweden so far. He brokered a deal between the United Nations and Russia to allow Ukrainian grain exports through a Russian blockade, as well as expanding the Turkish military’s reach into Northern Syria.

Sinan Ogan was no longer in the race after endorsing Erdogan who had won the votes of 5.2% of the voters. The anti-migrant party had supported Ogan’s candidacy.

ANKARA, Turkey — Voters in Turkey returned to the polls Sunday to decide whether the country’s longtime leader stretches his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade or is unseated by a challenger who has promised to restore a more democratic society.

Turkey’s May 14 Referendum to the NATO-Sweden Conference on World War II: The Case of AKP President Tim Coskun

Turkey vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, which prompted the United States to oust Turkey from a U.S.-led fighter-jet project. But Erdogan’s government also helped broker a crucial deal that allowed Ukrainian grain shipments and averted a global food crisis.

The May 14 election saw 87% turnout, and strong participation is expected again Sunday, reflecting voters’ devotion to elections in a country where freedom of expression and assembly have been suppressed.

But the race was also seen as far from fair. Erdogan has near total control of Turkey’s broadcast media. And while he made frequent and lengthy appearances on TV, Kilicdaroglu had to make do with social media and YouTube to get his message across. Several times in the last year, the minimum wage was raised due to the use of government resources by the leader of the country.

In a bid to woo voters hit hard by inflation, he has increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while showcasing Turkey’s homegrown defense industry and infrastructure projects. He also centered his reelection campaign on a promise to rebuild quake-stricken areas, including constructing 319,000 homes within the year. Many people think that he’s a source of stability.

“Kilicdaroglu’s party has a lot of historic baggage that is difficult to get rid of, and he has a tough time presenting himself as an alternative to Erdogan,” Coskun said.

A legislative election that was held on May 14 gave the AKP party and its allies a majority of seats in parliament. Parliamentary elections will not be repeated Sunday.

Following the May 14 vote, international observers also pointed to the criminalization of dissemination of false information and online censorship as evidence that Erdogan had an “unjustified advantage.” The observers also said the elections showed the resilience of Turkish democracy.

Erdogan Erdogan: How the Turkish Revolution broke the Ottoman Empire and how the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Kurdu) fought back

The leader of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party is based in the mountains in Iraq, according to statements made by the Turkish President at recent campaign rallies.

The country celebrated the anniversary of its establishment as a republic after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

The win cements his third term in power and signifies the endurance of his one-man executive rule, despite mounting grievances against him in Turkey, including his unorthodox economic policies, poor response to a devastating earthquake and diminishing democratic freedoms.

“There’s absolutely no reason to think that [Erdogan] would reverse course or soften his approach,” said political analyst Selim Koru, both on domestic issues and international affairs.