Putin’s Abrupt Reactions in the Battle for Bakhmut and the U.S.-Brazil Reaction in the ‘Scarlet Sails’ Festival

The most popular holiday in Russia is the Scarlet Sails festival. A celebration of high school graduates held in St. Petersburg, it culminates in a spectacular light show, where ships — including one with scarlet sails — pass along the Neva River, fireworks cracking above them. Teenagers drink on the banks of the river while Russian officials and billionaires sip champagne on their boats. President Vladimir Putin loves this holiday so much that he always misses a private party in his hometown, even as ships go by.

Mr. Putin was negligent in allowing the situation to get out of hand. He encouraged Mr. Prigozhin to take a prominent position on the battlefield in the battle for Bakhmut, and he also allowed him to recruit from prison. The calculation was not made in a military way. Mr. Prigozhin was clearly elevated to act as a counterweight to the defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the military generals, ensuring they didn’t become too popular. So when Mr. Prigozhin started criticizing the military leadership — often in explicit, expletive-ridden diatribes — the president did nothing to stop it.

CIA Director William Burns said that the repercussions of the recent aborted revolt in Russia led by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin won’t blow over any time soon and offer a reminder of the damage President Putin’s regime has inflicted on Russia.

The intelligence official’s remarks come a week after Wagner paramilitary forces launched a march toward Moscow in protest over Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s alleged plan to eliminate the mercenary group and fold its fighters into Russia’s military. The Wagner forces briefly seized control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and made it to the capital city’s outer limits before calling off the mutiny. In a possible deal with Alexander Lukashenko, the Kremlin said that the chief wouldn’t be charged for his actions and would move to the country of his ancestors.

Reiterating President Biden’s assertion that the U.S. and its allies played no part in the uprising, Burns said the U.S. “has had and will have no part” in what it says is an internal Russian affair.

Burns called Russia’s war on Ukraine a “strategic failure for Russia — its military weaknesses laid bare,” while NATO forces have “grown bigger and stronger,” he said.

Burns, the U.S. ambassador to Russia between 2005 to 2008, has watched Putin closely for years. After the CIA came to believe Russia was planning a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Burns met with Putin in late 2021. The visit left him discouraged and convinced that the Russian leader was leaning toward an attack on Ukraine.

The moment of “disaffection” with Putin’s war, Burns said in his remarks Saturday, gives the CIA a rare opportunity to recruit Russian intelligence sources.

“We are very much open for business and we recently posted on the messaging platform Telegram to let Russians know how to contact us safely on the dark web,” Burns said.