The fate of the armed Prigozhin-Bakhhmut rebelliny: a message to the Belarusian autocrat

In an interview with reporters at Independence Palace, the President of Belarus claimed that the man known as Mr. Prigozhin was in the Russian city of St. Pete as of Thursday morning. None of Mr. Lukashenko’s claims could be verified, and Mr. Prigozhin has not been seen in public since the rebellion nearly two weeks ago.

There is a chance that at least some of the fighting force which was used in the capture of Bakhmut could remain intact. He said that the main question of where the Wagner will be deployed is up to the leadership of Russia.

The Belarusian autocrat intervened late last month in the armed mutiny led by Mr. Prigozhin, striking a deal with the Wagner leader that saw him stand down and withdraw his forces in exchange for amnesty for his fighters, and safe passage to Belarus for himself.

Mr. Lukashenko said that he had spoken to Mr. Prigozhin on Wednesday, and that Wagner would continue to “fulfill its duties to Russia for as long as it can.” He said that Mr. Prigoshev was a free man, but what will happen later?

He didn’t think Mr. Putin would act against the failed mutiny quickly. He said that if you think that Putin will kill Prigozhin tomorrow, that will not happen.

Prigothzin’s Revolta and the Wagner Deal: Lukashenko’s Independence Campaign to Moscow During the 2011 Russian Revolt

“If we must activate this unit for the defense of the nation, then it will be immediately activated,” he said. Their experience will be in high demand.

By granting an interview session with a small group of reporters at his presidential palace on Thursday, Mr. Lukashenko may be hoping to establish a measure of independence from his benefactors in Moscow, while possibly getting a boost at home, with an electorate more interested in peace than joining Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine.

The recent announcement, the latest in a long list of revelations over Prigothzin’s location and the terms of theWagner deal, cast into question the validity of that deal to end the rebellion.

Nearly two weeks ago, the Wagner mercenary force briefly seized control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marched to the outskirts of Moscow nearly unopposed before withdrawing.