Biden-Trump rematch: How far can it go? [4 takeaways from Super Tuesday] (https://npr.org/2014/05/06/1236192892/trump-haley)
There is a lot of thoughts and feelings going on right now. Some people were likely in denial that there would really be a Biden-Trump rematch. Well, it’s really happening (barring something extraordinary and unforeseen at this point).
It depends on what Haley does in the next few days. Haley has a degree of leverage because significant majorities of her voters are continuing to tell exit pollsters that they will not support Trump in a general election. Independents who will vote for a Republican are the kind of voters that Trump needs to win in a general election.
There weren’t enough independents to vote in the Republican primary this year, which is why Haley won them. Haley was unable to dislodge Trump voters from Trump, and that was the only way anyone other than Trump could win.
It’s possible that all of that will occur if she comes around to Trump, like she did in 2016 when she was with him. If she wanted a future in it, she would probably have to return to the fold.
Source: 4 takeaways from Super Tuesday
What’s going on with the Donald Trump campaign in the 21st century, and what is going on in the next three or four years?
Two candidates had high levels of disaffection. Third-party candidates clamoring and threatening to make a difference. Trump’s victory speech is broadcast on cable news just like every other newscast, in which he lays out how he can fix the problems of the country alone.
You’d be happy if that was about the 2016 election. It’s in many ways what’s happening again – except instead of an open presidential race, one without an incumbent, there are essentially two incumbents running. The country views both men in very different ways.
Both have unfavorable ratings averaging above 50%. Over nine years in the public spotlight, that’s largely unchanged for Trump. Biden’s approval ratings are middling, and dissatisfaction with him from some wings of his party was evident again Tuesday night. Uncommitted drew a large number of votes in Minnesota and Colorado. Last week 100,000 people in Michigan voted uncommitted due to the fact that Biden mishandled the war in Gaza.
Because of all that, if this was an election with anyone on the ballot who wasn’t Trump, this would be a race about change. Instead, it’s one between an incumbent and a quasi-incumbent, and Democrats are going to try their best to make it a referendum on Trump, with a lot on the line.
Eventually those who haven’t come around to that reality will. And then they will have to think past “they’re old” and get to who most aligns with their ideals, as imperfectly as either might be for some portions of their parties.
People will vote based on their priorities, whether it’s protecting reproductive rights and LGBTQ rights, or wanting to take a harder line on immigration or protecting their money. And there could be an up-ballot effect, like in states such as North Carolina and Arizona, which feature the kinds of candidates for statewide office in the mold of Trump who have hampered Republicans’ chances in the last three elections cycles.
So there will be a lot more going on in this election for what motivates voters than just the candidates’ ages, and Super Tuesday provided just a little bit more evidence for that.
About 18 months ago, Donald Trump suffered one of his worst political defeats, when many of his loyalists and handpicked candidates were defeated in a midterm landscape that clearly favored the Republicans. The beginning of the end for him was seen as an indicator of political weakness that would encourage G.O.P. voters to abandon him, or he would be defeated in the general election.
We lost and appeared weak, but what about recovery and strength? The most important result of the Republican disappointment in 2022, which was not the momentary blow to Trump but the brief return of Biden’s mojo, pre-empted any effort within the liberals to make an issue of his age and push him out, was the one that foretold the Republican disappointment in
It wasn’t just that Democrats were stuck with Biden’s presidential decrepitude to go along with an unpopular economic record. It also meant that the argument among Republicans for Trump’s unelectability, briefly potent enough to lift Ron DeSantis in the polls, fizzled out quickly: With every new survey showing Biden struggling, it became harder and harder for DeSantis and then Haley to persuade voters who liked Trump that it was time to turn the page.