How Irish democrats are going to win: The election results will determine the next government and how long will it take to vote? A detailed report from Sinn Fein
He said that the outcome of the election won’t be known until the clock hits 10 o’clock.
The figures give an indication but don’t reveal who will form the next government. Ireland has a complex system of proportional representation known as the single transferrable vote, and it can take several days for the results to be known.
Ireland will vote on Friday in a parliamentary election that will decide the next government and will show whether it bucks the global trend of incumbents being ousted by disgruntled voters after years of pandemic, international instability and cost-of-living pressures.
Sinn Fein gained the most votes in the 2020 election and became the largest party in parliament but it was shut out of the government because of historic ties with the Irish Republican Army.
After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat they formed a coalition, agreeing to share Cabinet posts and take turns as taoiseach, or prime minister. Michel Martin was the premier of the first half of the term before being replaced by Varadkar. Varadkar unexpectedly stepped down in March, passing the job to current Taoiseach Simon Harris.
This election includes a large crop of independent candidates, ranging from local campaigners to far-right activists and reputed crime boss Gerry “the Monk” Hutch.
The Irish housing crisis and immigration crisis: The far-right or left-right coalition or the Irish government is on the way? An analysis of Ireland’s election campaign
As in many other countries, the cost of living — especially housing — has dominated the campaign. Ireland didn’t build enough new homes during its Celtic Tiger boom days, and the economic downturn after the 2008 global financial crisis has left it with an acute housing shortage.
John-Mark McCafferty, Threshold’s chief executive, said there wasn’t any building during the crisis but hotels and offices were built first.
McCafferty stated that “Ireland has resources”, but that it is trying to address some big historic infrastructural deficits after a decade of economic growth.
Tangled up with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge to a country long defined by emigration. Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands of people fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
This country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum-seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have attracted tension and protests. The worst rioting Ireland had ever seen was caused by the attack on the Dublin school children by an Algerian man.
Ireland does not have a major far-right party but some voices on social media want to drum up hostility to migrants and anti- immigrants are hoping for election in some districts. The issue appears to be hitting support for Sinn Fein, as working-class supporters bristled at its pro-immigration policies.
The center-right party had released a poll after the voting ended. The first choice of 22% of voters was the center-right government’s coalition partner, Fianna Fail. Left-of-center opposition Sinn Fein was at 21.1% in the poll.
Fine Gael has run a gaffe-prone campaign, Fianna Fail has remained steady in the polls and Sinn Fein says it has momentum, but is unlikely to win power unless the other parties drop their opposition to working with it.
Analysts say the most likely outcome is another Fine Gael-Fianna Fail coalition, possibly with a smaller party or a clutch of independents as kingmakers.
“It’s just a question of which minor group is going to be the group that supports the government this time,” said Eoin O’Malley, a political scientist at Dublin City University. “Coalition-forming is about exposing the same middle-of-the-road government every time.”
“There is a chance that Sinn Fein will be the largest party in this election,” Matt Carthy said.
How Irish voters cast their ballots? A survey by pollster Ipsos B&A in Dunklin (Ireland)
Pollster Ipsos B&A asked 5,018 voters across the country how they had cast their ballots. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points.
DUBLIN — An exit poll in Ireland’s parliamentary election released late Friday suggests the three biggest parties have won roughly equal shares and the country is headed for another coalition government.