Turkey as a key H.T.S. interlocutor: Syria’s long history with Hafez al-Assad

Russia’s ties with the Assad family go back to the 1970s, when Hafez al-Assad — Bashar’s father — solidified Syria’s place in the Soviet orbit. In early 2012 Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for Mr. al-Assad to resign after his violent suppression of the uprising. The year before, Mr. Putin, then prime minister, had lambasted a separate U.N. resolution authorizing airstrikes against the Libyan dictator Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi as a “medieval call for a crusade” and was said to be livid when Colonel Qaddafi was killed. He was certain that Mr. al-Assad wouldn’t suffer the same fate.

The collapse of the regime of the Assad family in Syria is great news for the region as it upends decades of rule by the family.

By contrast, Turkey is poised to see its influence expand. Hayat Tahrir al- Sham is a terrorist group that Ankara has ties to. Turkey does not collaborate with H.T.S. but still maintains some lines of communication. The country is likely to become a key H.T.S. interlocutor and bridge to the international community, given the group’s proscribed nature, which will deepen its influence in Syria, where it already maintains a de facto buffer zone across much of the north. It will almost certainly use this new position to keep Kurdish power in Syria in check, and try to begin to facilitate the return of some three million Syrian refugees, a source of growing internal tension.