Italian Economy and Trade: The Italian-US Correspondence at a High-Frequency EU-NATO Intergovernmental Economic and Trade Summit
“The best strategy has been to be very circumspect: Get there, get the meeting, get the photo opportunity,” Piccoli said. “If she is able to come back, and give a sense of how Washington wants to frame relations, that would be a huge victory.”
NATO spending is expected to be on the agenda in the meeting between the two leaders. Trump wants NATO allies to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. Italy spends 1.49%, and has announced plans to raise that to 2%.
The meeting comes against the backdrop of growing concerns over global uncertainty generated by the escalating tariff wars. Italy’s growth forecast for this year has already been slashed from 1% to 0.5% as a result.
“All in all, I think she will focus on the very strong economic and trade relations that Italy has with the United States, not just in terms of exports, but also services and energy,” said Antonio Villafranca, vice president of the ISPI think tank in Milan. “For example, Italy could even consider importing more gas from the U.S.”
Italy has a 40 billion euro trade deficit with the US, and it is due to Americans’ affinity for Italian sparkling wine, cheeses and Italian luxury fashion. These are important sectors in the Italian economy and supported by small and medium-sized producers who are core center-right voters.
The Meloni Mission: Diplomacy, Progress, and the Prospects for Trade Negotiations in the European Union and the Middle Way (after the Trade War)
“She has been very cautious,” said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at the London-based Teneo consultancy. “It is what we need when we have a counterpart that is changing every day.”
At a crucial juncture of the trade war, Meloni was able to secure the meeting and represent the European Union. The commission spokeswoman said this week that she was in touch with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen before the trip and that the outreach was closely coordinated.
The pause has raised some hopes for negotiations, and Meloni’s margins for progress are more in gaining clarity on Trump’s goals rather than outright concessions, experts say.
The chief economist of the European Policy Center think tank said that the mission was very delicate. “There is the whole trade agenda, and while she’s not officially negotiating, we know that Trump likes to have this kind of informal exchange, which in a sense is a negotiation. So it’s a lot on her plate.”
President Trump expressed optimism about a deal with Europe before the end of a 90-day pause in steep global tariffs. The tariffs on imports to the United States are now just 10 percent, rather than 20 percent.
The European Union is defending what it calls “the most important commercial relationship in the world,” with annual trade reaching 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion).
The senior administration official told reporters that the US has a huge trade deficit with EU countries and that it is harming the president.
“So I think he’s certainly going to want to level the plane, as he said several times with the EU just as with other trading partners,” the official said.
Asked by a reporter whether she thought the U.S. was a reliable trading partner, Meloni, who has criticized tariffs, said: “I believe in the West’s unity and I think we have to talk … and find ourselves in the best middle way to grow together. If I wouldn’t think it was a reliable partner, I wouldn’t be here.”