The AAA National Autonomous Highway Forecast (NAPRA): Transportation Trends and Gas Prices in the First Two Years of the Pandemic
Most travelers will drive to their destinations. 49 million people are expected to travel by car this year. That’s 2.5% below 2019 levels, but up by 0.4% from last year. Trips that are more than half a mile from home are looked at by theAAA’s forecast.
“It seems counterintuitive given inflation and higher gas prices. But given how separated and isolated we were during the first 2 years of the pandemic — and with travel restrictions now lifted — travel demand is high,” AAA spokesperson Aixa Diaz told CNN via email.
While gas is expensive — on Monday the national average per gallon was $3.77 — gas prices are down from a month ago and well below the $5 per gallon peak in mid-June.
“They’re cutting back in other areas of their life — dining out at less expensive restaurants or shopping less — and changing daily driving by condensing errands to preserve gas,” Diaz said.
The Rise and Fall of the Holiday Scramble: How Airlines and Hotels are Efficient during a Black Hole Season, and the Growth in Remote Work
“Airport parking spaces fill up fast, so reserve a spot ahead of time and arrive early,” Paula Twidale, AAA’s senior vice president of travel, said in a statement. “Anticipate long TSA lines. If possible, avoid checking a bag to allow for more flexibility if flights are delayed or you need to reschedule.”
And while pretty much everything feels more expensive these days, airfare is actually leveling off, according to Scott Keyes, founder of Scott’s Cheap Flights.
“Since then, it’s kind of fallen back down to Earth and now, if you squint, it looks essentially normal. It looks like it did before the swine flu hit.
A holiday scramble that is more dispersed, with lower peaks, is also Christmas music to airlines’ ears. “We can become much more efficient because demand is regularly high at all periods,” Robert Isom, the CEO of American Airlines, said at an event hosted by the travel news site Skift in November. Because airlines and hotels are still short of pilots, cleaners and attendants, they won’t have to turn over planes and rooms as much during a holiday crunch. And less intense competition between passengers for seats or rooms on specific days might mean companies can take more bookings overall. Ed Bastian, the chief executive officer of United Airlines, told investors about the phenomenon in the fall.
Airlines have “gone above and beyond to try to get ready,” Nick Calio, president and CEO of industry group Airlines for America, told CNN’s Pete Muntean.
He said that they adjusted their schedules, have been on hiring binges, put people in the correct places and hope that they will be at the right time.
“I’m worried about the weather. I always worry about the weather, but I think we’re more flexible now that there’s no guarantee that a flight will go on, so we will be prepared to try to get people to their destinations.
One is the growth in remote or hybrid work. According to a recent survey, 14 percent of full-time employees are fully remote and 29 percent work outside of the office a few days a week. Many people with a sore throat do not like lying down, but rather want to go see the world or visit their mom. And three, supply constraints—in airplane seats on flights still operating curtailed schedules, car rentals, and hotel rooms—are driving up prices and pushing some people to consider traveling on non-peak days. “If people find a better deal to travel on a Monday or a Tuesday or a Wednesday and they have the flexibility to do that, they will,” says Vik Krishnan, a partner with McKinsey who consults clients in the aviation, travel, and aerospace industries.
Less happily, the changes may mean less breaks for travel workers. Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, said that it makes the holidays more difficult. “We used to plan our own holidays and work schedules around typical travel patterns. Now, flights are full all the time. This makes it hard to get to work or utilize the benefits that come with our jobs.”