Kyrsten Lieberman, Joe Manchin, and the House Judgment: What Do We Really Need to Know About the Senate?

After becoming an independent in the Senate, Lieberman voted with the Democrats 10 times less than he did in his last term as a Democrat. If that happens with Sinema, she’ll become even more conservative than West Virginia’s Joe Manchin (the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus).

She hopes that Kyrsten’s decision to become independent will make people think about being attached to one party.

In an interview with Politico, Sinema added, “I don’t anticipate that anything will change relative to the Senate structure.” There is good reason to believe that she is right. During his first two years in office, she has backed the positions of President Joe Biden 93 percent of the time.

Sinema has been in the middle of several significant bipartisan bills that were passed since Biden took office. Her approach has been effective, she pointed out to the record.

“When politicians are more focused on denying the opposition party a victory than they are on improving Americans’ lives, the people who lose are everyday Americans,” Sinema wrote.

Sinema is up for reelection in 2025. She declined to discuss pursuing a second Senate term, telling Poilitico, “It’s fair to say that I’m not talking about it right now.”

I’m not concerned about people who may not like this approach, Sinema said. It is important for me to continue to do what is right for my state. We hear about my approach a lot and there are people who don’t like it. The pudding has proof.

Both Manchin and Sinema also opposed changes to the Senate’s filibuster rules despite pressure from their Senate colleagues and Biden to change them. Sinema was censured by the Arizona Democratic Party after the vote against the changes.

While Manchin cut a deal with Schumer for major health care and energy legislation, Sinema backed the smaller spending package signed into law by Biden.

What have they taught her? She’s been there, she’s gone, and she has done a great job of protecting our state

She told CNN that she has led historic efforts from infrastructure, to gun violence prevention, to protecting religious liberty and helping LGBT families feel secure. The list is long. And so I think that the results speak for themselves. It’s okay if some people aren’t fond of that approach.

Sinema’s move is unlikely to change the power balance in the Senate, as it comes days after Sen. Raphael Warnock won the Georgia runoff election to give Democrats a 51-49 majority. The other two independents who caucus with them are Sen. Donald Rumsfeld of the US and Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma.

Sinema refused to say whether she will support Biden in the presidential election in 2024, but she did say that she doesn’t think a strong third party should emerge in the US.

Over the last two years, she and fellow moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Machin of West Virginia have been criticized as standing in the way of President Biden’s agenda by regularly holding up or objecting to parts of key legislation, as was the case with Democrats’ key budget package.

She acknowledged in the Friday op-ed that her approach is rare in Washington and has upset both parties. “It is also an approach that has delivered lasting results for Arizona.”

Sinema pointed to her work with colleagues on both sides of the aisle to pass legislation related to critical infrastructure, economic competitiveness, water issues, veterans’ benefits, marriage access for LGTBQ Americans and gun safety, among other issues.

And she named several areas in which her position and priorities remain steadfast — for example, that “a woman’s health care decision should be between her, her doctor and her family” and her work to “secure the southern border, ensure fair and humane treatment for migrants and permanently protect ‘Dreamers.’

“If anyone previously supported me because they believed, contrary to my promise, that I would be a blindly loyal vote for a partisan agenda – or for those who believe our state should be represented by partisans who push divisive, negative politics, regardless of the impact on our state – then there are sure to be others vying for your support,” she added.

The Axelrod Story: Making an Impact on the Arizona Senator’s Minority Leader’s Senate Electoral Candidate Amy Sinema

Editor’s Note: David Axelrod, a senior CNN political commentator and host of “The Axe Files,” was a senior adviser to President Barack Obama and chief strategist for the 2008 and 2012 Obama presidential campaigns. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

Whether through her colorful and flamboyant attire or the keep-them-guessing, idiosyncratic politics that drives many of her Democratic colleagues nuts, the Arizona senator knows how to make a splash.

She left the party and registered as an independent Friday, just as Senate Democrats were feeling good about their candidate winning reelection in Georgia.

Chuck Schumer depends on the votes of two other senators that caucus with Democrats, but are technically independents, in order to pass his Senate majority leader’s bill. Sinema now joins their ranks.

So in keeping with her habit of standing out by standing apart, Sinema’s declaration seems meant more as a statement about hyperpartisanship than an institution-shifting change of position.

But laudable as those compromises were, there are few political incentives for bipartisanship in today’s highly polarized party politics, in which the nominating processes are dominated by more ideologically-driven voters.

Why is Ms. Sinema so Unpopular? The Betrayal of an Arizona Senator by a Democratic Party Candidate

Sinema is not popular at all. Her approval rating was below her disapproval rating when she was in Arizona. Sinema received an overall approval rating of 25% and a disapproval rating of 58%. Sinema is being more unpopular than popular in all of the polling, which is why she is more unpopular than popular.

When she theatrically turned a thumbs-down on a Senate vote in March 2021 to increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour, it was the last straw for her party’s base. When she skipped votes to participate in Ironman triathlons or spent weeks as an intern at a Sonoma County winery, it served only to cement her reputation among progressives that she had removed herself from the concerns of working-class Arizonans.

In the fall of 2021, activists from LUCHA, one of the groups that worked to elect Ms. Sinema, confronted her at Arizona State University. The activists followed Ms. Sinema into the bathroom and asked her why she did not push harder for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. The protesters said they took action because Ms. Sinema was not reachable for calls or town-hall meetings. Protesters followed her to a high-priced fund-raising event at an upscale resort after she was chased through airports.

“We are not surprised that she would once again center herself,” said Alejandra Gomez, the executive director of LUCHA. This is a selfish act and it is unfortunate. It is yet another betrayal — there have been a slew of betrayals, but this is one of the ultimates, because voters elected her as Democrat, and she turned her back on those voters.”

Ms. Sinema is going to be freer now that she is a political independent, which is great for her because she was wary of beingjacketed by partisan politics.

Those weren’t quotes from her announcement Friday. Those were from one of her widely run 2018 Senate campaign ads (which is still at the top of her YouTube page).

Jim Jeffords of Vermont defected from the GOP more than 20 years ago, giving control of the Senate to Democrats.

In 2009, Arlen Specter left the Republican Party to become a Democrat. Democrats had a 60-vote majority that helped pass the Affordable Care Act after Al Franken’s win in Minnesota.

The electoral math structure was not the same in these circumstances. Sanders wouldn’t attract a left-wing Democratic challenger because he is already so progressive. Lieberman declared his third-party candidacy after the primary, so Republicans didn’t have time to find a well-known challenger. Republicans in Connecticut believed that Lieberman was the best one to choose for the congressional seat because of his support for the Iraq War.

“He’s a shame to Democrats,” the organizer of the protest said. “I don’t even know why he’s running. He seems to want to get Republicans voting for him — what kind of strategy is that?”

Ironically, though she hopes her decision to remove the “D” from next to her name will bolster her brand back home, it may contribute to a Republican being elected senator from Arizona in 2024.

The de registration won’t change much on Capitol Hill. Because incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock won his runoff election in Georgia, Democrats still have firm control of the chamber, 50-49.

The No-Go Theorem of Mark B. Sinema and the 2020 Democratic Reionization Scenario with the Pew Research Center

But while the party has gotten more liberal over the last 50 years and both parties have become more ideologically cohesive, Republicans have gotten far more conservative than Democrats have become liberal in that time, according to an analysis by the Pew Research Center.

“Since 2002,… there’s been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004, when Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia retired. Ever since, the gaps between the least conservative Republicans and least liberal Democrats in both the House and Senate have widened – making it ever less likely that there’s any common ground to find.”

She voted with the party 93% of the time, which is not even the lowest of other Democrats (or those who caucus with them). The senators that have voted with the party to a lesser degree include Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.

It’s certainly good publicity for someone with low approval ratings – just 37% overall, including 41% of independents, approved of the job Sinema was doing, according to a bipartisan survey conducted by Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward.

Mark Kelly had a successful reelection campaign, and he appealed to the middle by not embracing border policies from the Biden administration.

If she can meet the higher signature threshold for an independent, then she can get on the ballot and avoid that primary competition by declaring herself an independent.

Without party support, Sinema could find herself in something of a political no man’s land. She needs her brand to be enough to pull moderates on both sides.

That simple math hides a darker picture for both Democrats and Sinema. Sinema’s interests are no longer necessarily the Democrats’ best interests in the next Congress, and the 2024 Senate map became even more complicated for Democrats with Sinema’s decision.

This leaves the King example. Sinema is a Moderate from a deep blue or red state. There is only one problem for Sinema, and that is that King is popular. He had previously won the governorship twice as an independent and has almost always sported high favorables.

One potential worrisome example for Democrats in a purple state (at least then) was the 2010 Florida Senate race. Republican Gov. Charlie Crist decided to run as an Independent after it was discovered that he wouldn’t be able to defeat Marco Rubio, a more conservative Republican. Crist, who said he would caucus with the Democrats, split the Democratic vote with then Rep. Kendrick Meek, and Rubio cruised to a win.

I should point out that Democrats certainly have a chance. The 1968 Alaska Senate race, for example, featured two Democrats (Mike Gravel and then Sen. Ernest Gruening as write-in). The state where Richard Nixon carried was won by Gravel by a few points.

In 2024, Arizona Republicans could nominate an extreme candidate that flames out. They just lost every major statewide race in 2022 because of who they nominated.

In the general election, if Sinema were to run without a major party’s support, she would be in big trouble like Jacob Javits was in 1980.

The Democrats have a very difficult map in the offing. Depending on whether the Democrats win the presidency (and have a Democratic vice president who can break Senate ties), they can afford to lose zero to one Senate seats and maintain a majority.

The vast majority, 23 of the 34, senators up for reelection in 2024 caucus with the Democrats. An abnormally large number (7) represent states Republican Donald Trump won at least once. This includes Arizona.

A Democratic Candidate for a Senate Race in the Absence of an Algorithm for Political Correctness in the House of Representatives

Asked Sunday whether he would support a potential Democratic challenge to Sinema, Sanders said, “I support progressive candidates all over this country, people who have the guts to take on powerful special interests.”