Los Alamos, Calif., May 24 – 31 – 12 Days Following a Superstorm Over the Last 24 Hours: Weather Forecast and Predictions
This week California has been battered by heavy snow, damaging winds, and flooding, and this weekend there will be another round of storms on the West Coast.
Atmospheric rivers are a normal part of the West Coast’s weather pattern, and they’re often the solution to months of warm-weather drought, bringing sorely needed rain and snowfall that packs water away high in the mountains.
The National Weather Service has issued wind advisories for more than 15 million people in the West as the storm system moves inland.
There is nothing to worry about, as the winds are predicted to be around 40-50 mph in the valleys and close to 70 mph in the mountains, which is lower than the storm earlier this week.
“While these winds won’t be on the order of the previous/stronger system it really won’t take much to bring trees down given saturated conditions and weakened trees from the last event,” the weather service in San Francisco posted Friday.
“The consecutive dry summers that we’ve had, especially the heat events like the heat dome, that really damages trees and it takes up so much of their energy to fuel their immune systems to fight off pathogens,” Bourgeois said.
The last storm to arrive in California dumped 8 inches of rain in parts of the state. Oakland’s wettest day on record was on December 31 with 4.25 inches of rain, and San Francisco’s second wettest day was the following day on December 27 with 7.46 inches of rain.
Over the coming weekend, “additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher totals forecast for northern California will likely exacerbate flooding concerns over already saturated soil,” the weather service warned.
There is a wet spell in California and nearby areas. The quick succession of storms is dangerous, as the soil is already saturated with water and new winds are hitting places that have not experienced any recent storms. The risk increases more in places where burn scars have left land with even less ability to absorb water.
“Say goodbye to the warmth,” the National Weather Service in Los Angeles tweeted Monday. “Big drop in temperatures on track between today and tomorrow (Tuesday). Expect 15-20 degrees of cooling thanks to the approaching storm system.”
California was drying out and digging out after a powerful storm brought rain and snow to much of the state on New Year’s Day.
There will be storms on the West Coast. There will not be much break in between events for the water to leave or be cleaned up, which is a concern not just the rain, snow and wind.
That means New Year’s Eve celebrations Saturday will likely be dampened in New York City and Washington, DC. Los Angeles, too, is expected to ring in a wet new year.
The Sierra, California, weather forecast through 4 a.m. Saturday through noon and 3 phev. Weather-driven storms expected to slicing through the Northern Sky
“Tuesday is probably the day where you’ll likely need to keep a really close eye on the weather as the potential for widespread flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and roadway and urban flooding will be at its highest during the next week as all the runoff and heavy precipitation comes together resulting in a mess,” the weather service office in Sacramento said.
Rain will also fall in Buffalo, New York, on Saturday, adding to the melting snow and prompting localized flood concerns as the city continues to recover from its deadly blizzard. Additional rain is expected early next week.
“The slight risk area mostly highlights places that are already high in soil moisture, burn scars and urban areas,” the Weather Prediction Center said.
There were drivers stuck in the snow and on the rain-swamped highway when a stretch of I 70 was closed for nine hours.
Dangerous conditions Tuesday in Oregon left five people dead, including a 4-year-old girl, after severe weather caused trees to fall on passing vehicles, state police said.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — A powerful storm brought drenching rain or heavy snowfall to much of California on Saturday, snarling traffic and closing highways as the state prepared to usher in a new year.
A winter storm warning was in effect through 4 a.m. Sunday for much of the Sierra, including the highest elevations around Lake Tahoe where more than a foot of snow was expected near the shores at an elevation of about 6,200 feet (1,889 meters) and up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) above 8,000 feet (2,438 meters) with winds gusting up to 100 mph (160 kph) over ridgetops.
Landslides already had closed routes in the San Francisco Bay Area, between Fremont and Sunol, as well as in Mendocino County near the unincorporated community of Piercy and in the Mendocino National Forest, where crews cleared debris into Friday night.
The National Weather Service’s office in Eureka reported that roads began to flood after the 6.4 magnitude earthquake in Humboldt County. A bridge that was temporarily closed last week due to earthquake damage may be closed again if the Eel River, which it crosses, gets too high, officials said.
The American River is a place where many unhoused people live and the fire officials planned to warn of flooding from a helicopter and boat.
In addition to the heavy rainfall, another round of strong winds is expected to accompany the storm as it pushes inland, which could lead to even more downed trees and power lines causing additional power outages.
Flood watches and warnings were issued into the weekend north and south of Reno, Nevada, where some flooding was expected on some rivers and streams.
At Susanville, California about 85 miles (137 kilometers) north of Reno, the Susan River was forecast to rise from about 5 feet (1.5 meters) Friday to a foot (30 centimeters) above the flood stage of 12 feet (3.6 meters) by Saturday morning, causing moderate flooding that could affect some homes, roads and bridges, the National Weather Service said.
SAN FRANCISCO — California braced for more stormy weather with rain starting to sweep into the northern part the state and the San Francisco Bay area on Saturday, preceding a series of powerful incoming Pacific storms and raising the potential for road flooding, rising rivers and mudslides on soils already saturated after days of rain.
Power Outage.US Observations of Flooding in Northern California and Santa Cruz County (California, Nevada) during a High-Precision Decay
Ten thousand homes, businesses and other power customers were without power in California and Nevada on Sunday, down from more than 300,000 on Saturday, according to Poweroutage.US.
The day before, rising flood waters forced evacuations in Wilton, California, as well as three communities near the city of Watsonville in Santa Cruz County.
Last week, San Francisco experienced its wettest 10-day period on record for downtown since 1871. There has been over a foot of rain since December 1, and there is a forecast of up to 5 inches of rain in the next five days.
In Northern California, power was out and the region was flooded as a powerful atmospheric river made its way into the area.
Weather service meteorologist Courtney Carpenter said the storm could drop over an inch of rain in the Sacramento area before moving south. One ski resort south of Lake Tahoe closed chair lifts because of flooding and operational problems, and posted a photo on Twitter showing one lift tower and its empty chairs surrounded by water.
The map shows a wide variety of totals in the area from less than an inch in some areas to more than 5 inches in the Sierra foothills.
The Stockton Police Department posted photos of a flooded railroad underpass and a car that appeared stalled in more than a foot (30 centimeters) of water.
Sacramento County Reopened on New Year’s Eve with the First Tornadoev-Sunday and Forecasts for the First 11 Days of November
The first storms were expected to roll across California in a week. The current system is expected to be warmer and wetter, while next week’s storms will be colder, said Hannah Chandler-Cooley, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
As streets flooded and river water levels rose, the storm also forced some residents in northern California out of their homes on New Year’s Eve, as warnings andevacuation orders were issued.
On top of urban flooding, several rivers began overflowing, including the Cosumnes and Mokelumne rivers and the Mormon Slough, according to the National Weather Service in Sacramento. There were flood warnings issued for the south of the valley.
Three communities near the city of Watsonville were also told to evacuate by the Santa Cruz County Sheriff’s Office due to creek flooding, while the rising San Lorenzo River waters prompted evacuations in the communities of Paradise Park and Felton.
The Sacramento County area was particularly hard hit, with emergency crews spending the weekend rescuing multiple flood victims by boats and helicopter and responding to fallen trees and disabled vehicles in the flood waters, the Sacramento Metropolitan Fire District said.
Calling it “Stormageddon,” the Amador County Sheriff’s Office shared an image of cars up to their doorhandles in floodwaters and said there’s been reports of flooding, mudslides and trees blocking roadways.
Highway 50 was reopened just after midnight, hours after a section between Pollock Pines and Meyers was closed due to flooding from the American River, while another section was closed over Echo Summit for avalanche control work.
Interstate 80 was also partially closed near the Nevada line midday Saturday “due to multiple spinouts over Donner Summit,” according to the California Department of Transportation.
In Sacramento County and adjacent areas, residents were advised to avoid travel as wind gusts of up to 55 mph toppled trees and covered roads with debris, according to a tweet from the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
The county proclaimed a state of emergency, saying the atmospheric river has caused “significant transportation impacts, rising creek and river levels and flooding” in the Wilton area.
Snowfall and reopening of Tahoe and Sacramento counties during New Year’s Eve Skirmion and Lift Closures in the Northern Hemisphere
Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet were expected above 7,000 feet, and isolated accumulations of 5 feet were possible above 9,000 feet, the Weather Service said.
The storm dropped up to 7.5 inches of snow an hour in the Sierra, according to the NWS office. The Tahoe basin saw 20 to 24 inches of snow at lake level, with roughly twice that amount above 7,000 feet.
Heavy, wet snow will cause major delays in chairlift openings, and it had accumulated more than 4 feet in the high Sierra Nevada. High winds and poor visibility caused many lift closings at the resort on Saturday.
The California Highway Patrol reported that there were a lot of vehicles stuck on the I-80 and county roads at the Nevada State line.
Dozens of drivers were rescued on New Year’s Eve along Interstate 80 near Lake Tahoe after cars spun out in the snow, the California Department of Transportation said. The mountain route from the Bay Area to the mountains reopened early Sunday with passenger vehicles with chains.
The people had to be rescued from vehicles that weren’t moving. At least one death was linked to the weekend storm, after workers in southern Sacramento County found a person dead inside a vehicle submerged in water near Highway 99, as member station Capital Public Radio reports.
Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Office says a heavy rain storm is coming in for the winter solstice. Report of deaths on Monday at Pasadena
The region is drying out on New Year’s Day and there is no rainfall expected during Monday’s Rose Parade in Pasadena.
There were two deaths related to the storm, one a man who died after he was struck by a falling tree at a Santa Cruz park, and the other a person who was found dead in a submerged vehicle in Sacramento County.
A winter storm is expected to bring snow to the Rockies, northern Plains and parts of the Midwest on Monday.
“There will be a storm impacting the state Sunday night through Tuesday and we expect that to be worse than the one we will see early on this weekend,” said Matt Solum, of the National Weather Service. “We encourage everyone to take the time over the weekend to make any needed preparations for the next storm coming in.”
An evacuation order was issued Sunday for the rural Sacramento County areas of Point Pleasant, while Glanville Tract and Franklin Pond were under an evacuation warning.
“It is expected that the flooding from the Cosumnes River and the Mokelumne River is moving southwest toward I-5 and could reach these areas in the middle of the night,” the agency tweeted.
People in Northern California who have been affected by floods and mudslides should be aware that the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better.
The Weather Prediction Center said in a report on Sunday that the cumulative effect of successive heavy rain events from the end ofDecember will lead to widespread and potentially significant flood impacts.
Electricity accounts were without power in California and Nevada at midday Monday, according to Power Outage.us.
The Sacramento Elm Tree, Los Angeles — A Witness to a Big Storm and the “Pioneer Cabin Tree” Falling on New Year’s Eve
On Sunday, Sacramento’s Mary Spencer-Gode and other residents gaped at the damage on their street, where the storm toppled a massive elm tree on New Year’s Eve.
“The wind was just going crazy,” she told Capital Public Radio. “We turned our TV off so we could hear it, and I was sitting in the kitchen, I heard a big ‘woosh’ and kind of the house moved.”
According to the senior forecaster at the NWS, when a cold front approaches, a narrow area of high humid air is moved away from the tropics to higher latitudes.
During the cold season, atmospheric rivers are responsible for a lot of the rain in states along the West Coast.
The precipitation can be extreme: A single atmospheric river “can carry more water than the Mississippi River at its mouth,” as NPR has reported. The systems’ winds can be very dangerous. The sequoia that was the “Pioneer Cabin Tree” fell in Calaveras Big Trees State Park during one of the storms in late 2017, according to a report.
It’s going to take a lot more to remove the long term, multi-year effects of the current drought in Northern California, but maybe it’s going to be able to do that.
The NWS said that there could be two to three inches of rain in the Central Valley, with 3-6 inches in the foothills and mountains. The valley and foothills will experience wind gusts of up to 50 mph with gusts as high as 60 mph in the mountains.
“The most intense part of this weather event will occur later this evening and last through Thursday”, said the NWS office in Los Angeles. “A slow moving cold front will entrain the moisture from a moderate atmospheric river.”
The Sacramento, Calif., meteorological agency warns of a cyclone-driven megaflood coming through the Pacific coast
There’s a risk of mudslides in locations of recent fires where there is no enough ground cover to absorb and retain water.
The wet weather comes after days of rain in California from Pacific storms. At least six people have died in recent weather systems, which knocked out power to thousands, flooded streets, and battered the coast.
As the system arrives, many areas will also be confronted with the effects of a bomb cyclone: The powerful system was seen “undergoing bombogenesis” off California’s northern coast, the NWS office in Sacramento said on Wednesday, referring to the rapid intensification of a midlatitude cyclone.
This weekend the main concerns for the coastal communities will be widespread flooding, gusty winds, and dangerous beach and marine conditions. In the higher elevations it will be heavy snow and strong winds leading to near whiteout conditions for anyone traveling on the roads.
Climate researchers have said it’s a lack of precipitation, higher temperatures, and an increase in evaporative demand – also known as the “thirst of the atmosphere” – that has pushed the West’s drought into historic territory.
The storms are needed more than ever to alleviate the lack of precipitation in the country, according to a climate scientist in San Diego.
A 2022 study authored by Swain found that climate change has already doubled the chances of a disastrous megaflood happening in California in the next four decades – a storm unlike anything anyone alive today has ever experienced.
The National Weather Service office in San Francisco says that what really sets this event apart is the warm conditions that followed the rain. “Multiple systems over the past week have saturated soil, increased flow in rivers and streams, and truly set the stage for this to become a high impact event.”
Despite the wet start to the year, last year was a bit more wet than this, and the state was still in a desert for the rest of the year.
Forestland, Power Lines, and Trees in Sonoma County and Northern Marin County were Ruined by the Potential Pineapple Express
Weather experts warned people in their coverage areas on Wednesday to prepare for potential power outages, and for travel to be threatened by high winds, debris and felled trees and power lines.
“During the current storm, trees have taken down power lines used by trains and are falling all over the Bay Area,” stated the BART, or Bay Area Rapid Transit.
The intense weather was brought on by a “potent Pineapple Express,” the National Weather Service warned this week, using the term for an atmospheric river that brings moisture-rich low pressure waves from around the Hawaiian Islands to the Pacific Coast.
In downtown San Francisco, winds snapped a mature landscaping tree off at its base and dropped it onto a Honda sedan, trapping a family in their car next to the San Francisco Public Library’s main branch. The family was saved using chainsaws by the firefighters.
At least two deaths have been linked to the bad weather. In Sonoma County, a tree fell on a home in the small town of Occidental Wednesday night, killing a child believed to be under 2 years old, according to local newspaper The Press Democrat.
The police department said a 19-year-old woman died when she crashed her car into a utility pole on a partially flooded road. The driver hydroplaned and lost control of their vehicle, before they crashed into a utility pole.
Emergency officials in some places want people to stay off the roads. Along with flash floods and mudslides, the roads had broken trees, power lines and other debris. There are some highways that have been closed due to the whiteout.
The officials in Santa Cruz County say that large waves and high tides damaged piers along the coastline.
The landmark bronze sea lion sculpture in the city of Sausalito was knocked out of its base in rough weather and can be repaired, according to officials.
Rain and mud in Sacramento, Calif., via the rain and snow forecasts with the Los Alamos Emergency Management Department and the California Department of Natural Resources
The NWS office inSacramento said that there would be rain and snow through the afternoon and evening.
“Meteorologists here sometimes talk about what they call the’storm parade’ which is when we have several atmospheric rivers back to back,” Stark said. “That’s really what’s happening right now: We’re looking at having another series of big storms this weekend, and even into next week.”
According to the emergency management department, some saw flooding, mudslides and sinkholes as of Wednesday evening.
Weather warnings beyond Friday’s expired are expected to be issued this weekend for places that will see a mix of rain and snow. This is what the forecast is for millions.
The Weather Prediction Center says there will be an additional 1 to 2 feet of snow on Saturday in the mountains of Northern and central California.
Even a 40 mph wind can cause damage if the ground is saturated from record rainfall earlier this week and the new precipitation is expected this weekend.
Solum told CNN that extra rain on already saturated soils will cause more flooding concerns across the state. “There will continue to be an increased risk of rock slides and mud slides across much of the state as well.”
The weekend’s rains renewed flood concerns for local streams, creeks and rivers. The Colgan Creek, Berryessa Creek, Mark West Creek, Green Valley Creek, and the Cosumnes River all have gauges that are currently above flood stage or expected to be in the next few days.
Forecasts for El Nio and La Nia on the West Coast and Implications for the San Francisco, Reno, Sacramento, and Oxnard areas
El Niño and La Niña forecast patterns put out by the Climate Prediction Center give guidelines on what the overall forecast can be during a seasonal time period.
“However, in the past three months, Oregon has been slightly drier than normal and California has been slightly wetter than normal (the opposite of what is expected),” Arcodia told CNN. In the West Coast, El Nio andLa Nia patterns tend to have a big influence on seasonal conditions.
During El Nio and La Nias, atmospheric rivers form during the winter months and can happen where the larger patterns in the Pacific are.
According to Michael Tippett, a professor of mathematics and physics at Columbia University, the forecast patterns are not meant to be used on a daily basis but instead for the entire season. The patterns are important and this is why researching them is important.
“There is an element of randomness that is not explained by the patterns,” Tippett told CNN. This will help us figure out why one year is different than the other.
On Saturday night, Michael Anderson told a news conference that officials were keeping an eye on three other systems farther out in the Pacific and were monitoring Monday’s storm.
The city’s communications infrastructure, cellular and internet, is underground so “as we get more inundation from the rain, we’re seeing more failure around those, what we call lifeline systems” for power and communication, said Carroll.
This has led the prediction center to issue a Level 3 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall for over 15 million people in the state on Monday including those in San Francisco, Sacramento, Monterey, Fresno, and Oxnard. A Level 4 out of 4 “high risk” notice may become necessary for Monday if the forecast guidance continues to increase rainfall totals, the prediction center wrote in their discussion Sunday morning.
The weather service office in Reno says the valley will see gusts as high as 50 mph with gusts greater than 60 mph possible in wind prone areas. “Sierra crest wind gusts will likely approach 150+ mph as the strong subtropical jet moves overhead Monday. US-95 remains a big concern, especially for high profile vehicles Monday.”
There is high confidence that the pattern of rain will last through the next couple of weeks according to the weather service in San Francisco. “While we don’t have details on how much rain above normal will fall, suffice it to say that the continuation of saturated soils could continue to pose hazards into the third week of January.”