The David v. Goliath battles: a bravery manifested in London by the protests of Iranian and Ukrainian governments

Editor’s Note: Editor’s note: Frida Ghitis, (@fridaghitis) a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

Some demonstrators came together in London on Sunday. One person was waving flags from both Iran and Ukrainian countries. They cheered and chanted “All together we will win” when they met.

By contrast, Soviet-style, Russian “dumb” artillery rounds continue to land in Ukrainian cities, killing civilians, but to no strategic end because these attacks have scant military utility. According to a Gallup poll last month, 70% of Ukrainians want to fight against Russia until they win, as evidenced by the fact that Iran has supplied drones for Russia.

These David v. Goliath battles show bravery that is almost unimaginable to the rest of us – and is inspiring equally courageous support in places like Afghanistan.

The spark that killed Mahsa Amini: the Kremlin is ready to follow Putin’s footsteps through Syria’s long civil war

In Iran, the spark was the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last month. Known as “Zhina,” she died in the custody of morality police who detained her for breaking the relentlessly, violently enforced rules requiring women to dress modestly.

In scenes of exhilarated defiance, Iranian women have danced around fires in the night, shedding the hijab – the headcover mandated by the regime – and tossing it into the flames.

The peaceful uprising is about cutting the shackles of oppression, and men have joined it even as the regime kills more and more protesters.

After all, it was less than a decade ago that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military entered Syria’s long civil war, helping to save the dictator Bashar al-Assad (as Iran had).

Back then, on the opening day of the Olympics, Putin and Xi declared that there were no limits to their friendship and they didn’t want to belittle each other. Russian forces crossed the borders of Ukranian into what they expected would be a quick operation to conquer the budding democracy next door after denying any intention to invade.

The Ukrainian people still have high spirits and Western weapons are still arriving. The collapse of Moscow’s forces around the city of Kharkiv in September has been seen as a sign of weakness by Moscow.

Russia’s trajectory looks like a trail of war crimes with hundreds of bombed hospitals, schools, civilian convoys, and mass graves filled with Ukrainians.

Russia and Iran were both turned into pariahs by their interventionist regimes, and now Russia and Iran are being courted by Beijing and Moscow.

The Iranian drones sent by Russia to destroy the capital of Ukranian gave the most conclusive proof yet that Iran has become a rare ally of the Kremlin, offering both weapons and international support.

These are two regimes that, while very different in their ideologies, have much in common in their tactics of repression and their willingness to project power abroad.

Iran’s prisons are filled with regime critics and courageous journalists – including Niloofar Hamedi, first to report what happened to Mahsa Amini. In Russia as well, journalism is a deadly profession. Discussing Putin is the same as criticizing him. After trying and failing to kill opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin’s people manufactured charges to keep him in a penal colony indefinitely.

There is more to the low chance that the Iranian regime could fall than meets the eye. It would be transformative for their countries and their lives, heavily influenced by Tehran. Iran’s constitution calls for the spread of its radicalized revolution.

Putin and Xi used to have an aura of competence. Sure, their regimes were repressive, but their strength appeared to be matched by efficiency. The leaders of the free world weren’t dealing with the Pandemic like that, and it was because of that they were not. And prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin was punching above his weight, basking in the success of his multiple military adventures. He was satisfied watching turmoil in the US, one of his goals for a long time.

Mr. Sadjadpour stated that global integration would be dangerous and damaging to the regime. The regime might see its best chance of survival in maintaining repressive rule and “just the right amount of isolation.” Iran’s supreme leader wants to be something other than North Korea. He wants to be able to sell Iran’s oil on the global market without sanctions, but he doesn’t want Iran to be fully integrated in the global system.”

Since Donald Trump ripped up the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reimposed sanctions, the Biden administration and other nations involved have been trying to revive it. That is a worthy effort, but negotiations for the deal, otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, are at a standstill over two Iranian conditions in particular that Western negotiators cannot meet: that the International Atomic Energy Agency end investigations into traces of uranium at undeclared sites, and that the United States provide guarantees the deal will not again be killed. Iran’s decision about renewing the deal is not likely to be swayed by American behavior.

The U.S. needs to maintain its efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and this board supports continuing diplomatic efforts that could curtail Iran’s nuclear weapons program and open the door to future agreements. But some of the current sanctions have gone too far, and fallen mostly on the very activists that the United States would like to help. Iran’s economic isolation was used by the regime to strengthen its power. The United States wants to help Iranians to have a better life without sanctions, morality police or nuclear weapons.

The moral case is not solely the outrageous behavior of the clerical regime. It is also the fact that so much of the economic suffering of the Iranian people — rents that have multiplied, goods that have become prohibitively expensive, a currency that has plummeted so low that Iranians need stacks of bills to do everyday shopping — is the result of waves of American sanctions.

“The Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”: The United States’ Response to Russia’s Challenge and the Challenge of the Cold War

Europe’s challenge now is to deal with Russia in a state of chaotic denial, while hoping it evolves into a state of managed decline. One solace is that Europeans will not be at risk if they underestimate Moscow’s potential for malice.

But his biggest warning surrounded dependence on Chinese companies that are closely linked to the state, or that would have no choice but to turn over data on individuals upon demand by the Chinese authorities. He said in an interview that he and his associates had learned more about the way in which the Chinese state works and the national security laws, and had to comply because of it.

The idea of the Chinese dream, known as the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”, is at the center of “Xinpeii Thought” and it was unveiled just weeks after taking power.

Mr. Fleming said that in the case of China, this could be “the sliding-doors moment in history,” in which the United States and its allies may soon discover that they are too far behind in a series of critical technologies to maintain a military or technological edge over Beijing.

He described China’s move to develop central bank digital currencies that could be used to track transactions as a shift that could also “enable China to partially evade the sort of international sanctions currently being applied to Putin’s regime in Russia.” He stated that China was learning the lessons from the war in Ukraine if it decided to move against Taiwan and would try to weaken it economically as a result.

China has moved to deny other countries access to space in the event of a conflict, according to Mr. Fleming. And he accused China of trying to alter international technology standards to ease the tracking of individuals, part of its effort to repress dissent, even the speech of Chinese citizens living abroad.

On Monday, the Chinese leader pushed back at a central premise of Biden’s foreign policy – the global clash between democracy and autocracy, and the willingness of Western countries to view relations with Beijing through this prism.

21 months into Biden’s term, a document is required by Congress. Over the course of the President’s tenure, it has become apparent that the strategy includes a focus on rebuilding global partnerships and countervailing against China and Russia.

“Around the world, the need for American leadership is as great as it has ever been. We are in the midst of a strategic competition to shape the future of the international order,” Biden writes in the introduction to the strategy.

He said that they would not leave their future vulnerable to the whims of those who did not agree with their vision for a world free, open, prosperous and secure. “As the world continues to navigate the lingering impacts of the pandemic and global economic uncertainty, there is no nation better positioned to lead with strength and purpose than the United States of America.”

“This decisive decade is critical both for defining the terms of competition, particular with the (People’s Republic of China), and for getting ahead of massive challenges that if we lose the time this decade we will not be able to keep pace with,” he said.

Outwardly, China seemed an unstoppable rising power. The country is basking in the glow of the 2008 Beijing Olympics and recently overtook Japan as the world’s second-largest economy.

The compound where China’s new leader spent some time as a child was where he saw a crisis in the country.

For others, Xi’s Chinese dream has turned into their living nightmare. Muslims in the far west are closely surveilled as a result of being arbitrarily incarcerated. Pro-democracy supporters in Hong Kong found their hope and freedom crushed as the city became unrecognized. Rights lawyers,activists, journalists, professors and businessmen are often imprisoned or silenced due to fear across the country. In Xi’s eyes, they are all perceived threats to his quest for a strong and unified nation, and thus must be remolded or eliminated.

He chose a path of total control instead of following in his father’s footsteps. Combining the old authoritarian style and new technology, he has eliminated his competitors, tightened his grip on the economy and made the party ubiquitous in China, all while hiding his own cult of personality in daily life.

Underpinning Xi’s Chinese dream is a bitter sense of resentment toward the West, rooted in the nationalistic narrative that before the party took power, China suffered a “century of humiliation” at the hands of foreign powers and was invaded, carved up, occupied and weakened.

At a key party congress beginning on Sunday, Xi is poised to be appointed to a norm-breaking third term. It will be his coronation as China’s most powerful leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, paving the way for potential lifelong rule.

Within weeks, he launched the most brutal and long-lasting “war on graft” the party had ever seen. Powerful leaders were accused of planning a coup to seize power and they were targeted in the purges.

“Our party faces many grave challenges and there are many pressing problems within the party that need to be solved, in particular corruption,” Xi said in his first speech hours after being appointed the top leader.

The 20th Birthday of Xi: A warning to the West to be assertive and courageous in the face of global security and imperial power

Due to real-life reprisals, social media have been tamed. It became an amplification for party propaganda, a breeding ground for nationalism and a catalyst for social and political reforms.

Several Chinese nationals overseas told CNN they had been unable or unwilling to return home for the last few years while the lengthy quarantine was still in place. Major life moments missed and spent apart were weddings, childbirths, and deaths.

Hundreds of thousand died in the turmoil, including the half-sister of Xi. Xi’s father was purged and tortured. At age 15, Xi was sent to hard labor in an impoverished village after being publicly humiliated.

His emphasis on party authority is a result of his fear of chaos since he saw what happened to himself and his family, said an expert on Chinese politics.

He believed if you wanted to achieve political order, you needed to have a powerful leader, a powerful party and not a system in which people would abuse themselves and hurt other individuals.

Why did the Soviet Union cease to exist? Why did the Soviet Communist Party collapse? After taking the helm of the party, Xi told senior officials that their ideals had been shaken.

It was clear at the opening of the 20th party congress on Sunday that China is not moving in the same direction as it is supposed to. He is more concerned with national security than with reform and opening up, the policies that brought China out of poverty.

The recent American measures to counteract China’s influence have reinforced the idea that it is being besieged by Western powers.

The Chinese president embarked on an aggressive foreign policy. “Xi thinks this is China’s moment. And to seize that moment, he has to be assertive and take risks,” McGregor said.

The party’s celebration marking its 100th anniversary came as a stark warning to the West. Standing on top of Tiananmen, or the Gate of Heavenly Peace, the towering entrance to the Forbidden City palace of imperial China, Xi declared the Chinese nation will no longer be “bullied, oppressed or subjugated” by foreign powers. He said anyone who dared to try would get their heads bashed against the wall of steel created by Chinese people.

Though he secured a third term in power, the president of China signaled he wanted to mend relations with the west but he also wanted to have no limits on his friendship with Russia.

With democracy suddenly looking like it’s on firmer ground and key autocracies facing serious problems, it was an ideal moment for Biden to speak frankly to Xi about areas of disagreement between the two superpowers while trying to build safeguards to prevent the rivalry from careening into conflict as the relationship has deteriorated to its most tense state in decades.

It’s not known how many countries will join that perspective. In the last few years, unfavorable views of China have reached record highs across a number of advanced economies.

The reduction of Chinese maneuvers across the “median line” is an unofficial buffer line of the Taiwan Strait, so it’s a good place to start. Beijing’s actions have undermined the credibility of its assurances that it prefers to resolve differences across the Taiwan Strait peacefully. In his speech on Sunday, the president of China affirmed that China would strive for peaceful reunification and warned against interference by outside forces.

That difficult international environment, along with the toll of zero-Covid and the economic headwinds, poses a big challenge for Xi in the years ahead.

Mao may have founded Communist China. According to the party, it is the leader of the country that will turn it into a global power. Whether he can succeed will have a profound impact on the world.

Xi Jinping defended his hard-line reign on Sunday, presenting himself to a congress of China’s ruling elite as the leader whose tough policies had saved the nation from the ravages of the pandemic and was now focused on securing China’s rise amid multiplying global threats.

But his praise was coupled with a somber warning that the nation must stand united behind the party to cope with a world he depicted as increasingly turbulent — and hostile. And though he did not mention the United States by name, his distrust of the world’s other great power was an unmistakable backdrop to that exhortation.

“Be mindful of dangers in the midst of peace,” Mr. Xi said. “Get the house in good repair before rain comes, and prepare to undergo the major tests of high winds and waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.”

The 20th Congress of the Chinese Parliament: When Putin and Putin retreated from the old era to the new era in the 21st century

They included a professor at the party’s top academy who helped train thousands of high-ranking cadres. An economist will win the economics prize in China. A young historian planning to teach a class about contemporary Chinese history, including sensitive periods like the Cultural Revolution.

He used the term “new era” 39 times in his speech, boasting of the party’s achievements under his leadership. It has been a dark time for some Chinese who have left the authoritarian system of private enterprise and diversity in public opinion in favor of a single ideology and single leader.

An Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that it was a partnership of convenience between the two dictatorships.

Both countries are deep in crisis, struggling economically and politically. Iran is trying to contain street protests that pose the most serious challenge to the government in years and Russia is trying to manage growing discontent over a faltering war effort.

Still, experts say China has made progress in this regard, noting the coordination of its military branches during exercises the PLA held in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August.

Even the largest, most formidable militaries can be exploited by smaller, savvier forces even as Russia’s invasion ofUkraine shows.

It should be of concern to all of you who are watching the 20th Party Congress for the expected third term as both party leader and supreme commander of the Chinese military for the similarities between the problems dogging Moscow in Ukraine and the potential weak spots that are emerging in China.

Xi visited Taiwan in December 2012: a new aircraft carrier, missiles, joint attacks, and integrated logistics support for China’s Central Military Commission

Taiwan lies fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) off the coast of China. For more than 70 years the two sides have been governed separately, but that hasn’t stopped China’s ruling Communist Party from claiming the island as its own – despite having never controlled it.

Analysts say that would require hundreds of thousands of soldiers in what would be the largest amphibious operation since the Allies stormed ashore at Normandy in German-occupied France in World War II.

A new aircraft carrier launched this year by the PLA Navy, as well as manyType 055 destroyers, has been shown to be the most powerful surface ships in the world.

Taiwan can counter Russia by investing in missiles that are small and land-based like the ones that have been used by Ukraine against Russia.

China faces a significant challenge in making sure its different fighting forces pull in the same direction, as well as an issue that hampered Russia in Ukraine.

It is still in the early stages of creating unified command structures in which naval, air, army and rocket units work together seamlessly to execute a coordinated battle plan.

Xi’s work report on Sunday cited the need to “improve the command system for joint operations” and enhance the PLA’s “systems and capacity for reconnaissance and early warning, joint strikes, battlefield support, and integrated logistics support.”

The PLA bombarded Taiwan in the days after the visit, launching missiles over the main island and its air force flying jets into the air defense identification zone.

Four of the top six officers of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) have reached the normal retirement age of 68 and are being replaced as Xi heads into his third term, according to Joel Wuthnow, a senior research fellow at the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the US National Defense University.

The four officers who were departures were in charge of the PLA’s real fighting forces while the two remaining ones were from the military’s political ranks.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/19/asia/china-party-congress-xi-military-russia-parallels-intl-hnk-mil-mic/index.html

Putin’s 1993 Attack on the United States and the Impact on China-US Cooperation and Research Progress in the War on the Future of the World

Analysts warn that the language used to describe Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could be a smokescreen for something more sinister.

The missile that was fired by the rocket force of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army PLA on August 4, 1992, was targeting designated maritime areas to the east of Taiwan.

The Chinese state media played down the order, saying that it could be used to cover things such as disaster relief.

The outlines aim to prevent and minimize risks and challenges, handle emergencies, protect people and property, and safeguard national sovereignty, security and development interests.

He wrote in July about the new guidelines on non-war operations, saying they would be another step away from the peaceful rise it once promised to the global community.

The cooling of the China-US tensions was seen by the resumption of China-US top leaders’ direct dialogue, despite no tangible outcomes.

The risk is that if there is a lot of competition, resources will be diverted to fight each other, which will make it hard to focus resources and attention on achieving positive outcomes. In the United States, escalated competition could exacerbate domestic divisions and undermine democracy. More than half of Chinese-born scientists working in the United States may consider leaving because of anti-Asian violence and increased efforts to protect research security, according to a study.

Peter Bergen is a professor at Arizona State University, a vice president at New America and a national security analyst for CNN. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has an opinion on it.

The World is Changing: The United States is Frustrated, China is Running Out of Control and Russia is Getting Closer to the West

The United States is angry, its democracy is in danger, inflation is out of control, and the Dow is down this year. Yet, despite all these problems, if you zoom out and look at the world overall, the US is still doing quite well compared to its key enemies and closest allies.

China’s ties with the West and many of its neighbors plummeted significantly over the origins of the coronavirus, trade, territorial claims, Beijing’s human rights record and its close partnership with Russia despite the devastating war in Ukraine.

Led by the US, NATO is now stronger than ever, supplying Ukraine with significant amounts of weaponry and bulking up its collective defense spending. The alliance will add the formerly non-aligned countries of Finland and Sweden. The NATO alliance has become more relevant after Donald Trump threatened to pull the US out.

European countries will be filling their gas stocks to more than 90 percent in the winter in order to undermine NATO’s support for the Ukrainians.

American weaponry, including anti-tank Javelin missiles and HIMARS, that are gps-guided precision rockets, and US technologies, like the Starlink satellite-based internet communication system, have helped to turn the tide.

The Wall Street Journal says the zero-covid policy and the full-blown property downturn are slowing the Chinese economy. The unemployment rate for youths was almost 20% as of June.

Iran is being threatened by street protests that are threatening the regime in comparable ways to those that have happened since 1979.

Almost seven million people have left Venezuela since it began socialist rule in the western hemisphere, a quarter of the population.

China, Iran, Russia, and Venezuela all share one thing in common: They are all autocracies and not usually known for serving the interests of the people.

The Great Problem of the United States: How about Never – Is Never Good For Them? When Did British Prime Minister Liz Truss End Brexit?

European countries are generally faring better than the UK but still face their own problems. The dollar, which is at a two-decade high against the Euro, remains strong as the Fed raises interest rates and the American economy continues to be the most dynamic in the world. Indeed, the US has the lowest unemployment rate in five decades. America is the top producer of both gas and oil.

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson ran a campaign in 2019 to “Get Brexit Done,” completing the withdrawal from the EU in January 2020. The goal was to let the British out of all the European Union obligations.

It has proven to be an economic disaster. Many jobs in the UK that would have been filled by Europeans who were formerly free to move to Britain for work are going unfilled in sectors such as construction, farming, nursing homes, and restaurants. Since the Brexit vote six years ago, the UK’s per capita income has grown by only 3.8% in real terms, while the EU’s has grown by 8.5%, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Then came UK Prime Minister Liz Truss who compounded the harm of Brexit by proposing unfunded tax cuts for the rich in September. After heightened political outcry and financial turmoil, Truss reversed the tax cut decision, but the damage was done, and the pound fell to historic lows. She announced her resignation under pressure Thursday, on track to becoming Britain’s shortest-serving prime minister.

And what about that bilateral US-UK trade deal that Conservative leaders said would supposedly wave a magic wand over the UK’s economic mess? I don’t think that there are going to be any negotiations with the us in the short to medium term, according to Truss. This is government-speak acknowledging that the Americans have told the British: “How about never– is never good for you?” to quote the great New Yorker cartoon.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/20/opinions/america-is-great-again-bergen/index.html

The U.S., China, and the G20 Summit: A Sit Down on the Highest Powerful Countries, or What Do We Want to See?

The use of American vaccine technology by Pfizer and Moderna helped turn the tide against Covid-19 in some countries. By contrast, the Chinese and Russian vaccines have been far less effective against Covid-19.

Immigration, which is often treated as a problem by Americans, underlines the continuing attraction of the United States. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled their homeland since Putin announced a partial mobilization in the war against Ukraine, and tens of thousands have left Hong Kong after the Chinese takeover of the formerly autonomous city.

It took two years after Joe Biden was elected US President before the leaders of the world’s two most powerful countries could finally speak in person, but when Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping finally met in Bali, Indonesia, on Monday on the sidelines of the G20 summit, the timing could not have been any better for the United States, for democracy and for the world.

On the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia on Monday, the two leaders are scheduled to meet each other for another honest exchange. But the mood in the room is unlikely to be as balmy as the surrounding location.

After Democrats retained their Senate majority, there wasn’t anyone who wasn’t running on what we did, according to Biden. “So I feel good, and I’m looking forward to the next couple of years.”

There is more to this meeting than who controls the US House of Representatives and Senate.

“On the issue of Ukraine, China has already made its position clear many times. It will not change simply because of the talks with the US President. On North Korea, since March last year, China has already stopped treating the denuclearization of North Korea as a fundamental element of its Korean Peninsular policy,” he said.

A senior White House official said Thursday that Biden wants to build a floor for the relationship and prevent it from falling into open conflict. The main objective of the sit down is not to make any deals, but to get a better understanding of the priorities of both leaders and to reduce misinformation, according to a US official.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan reinforced the message Saturday to reporters aboard Air Force One, noting the meeting is unlikely to result in any major breakthroughs or dramatic shifts in the relationship.

While expectations of a reset of relations are low, the meetings could serve to stave off disagreements and reopen communication lines – in ways similar to the meeting between Xi and Biden.

Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.

“The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. The other side is likely to not make any significant changes, Kennedy said. “All of those things reduce the likelihood of significant adjustments.”

But experts say the very fact that the two leaders are having a face-to-face conversation is itself a positive development. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.

Direct communication is all the more important given Xi has just secured a norm-shattering third term with a tighter grip on power than ever – and a possibility to rule for life. “There is no one else in their system who can really communicate authoritatively other than Xi Jinping,” national security adviser Sullivan said.

On Wednesday, Biden told a news conference that he wants to “lay out what each of our red lines are” when he sits down with Xi, but experts say that might not be as straightforward as it sounds.

I would like to fly on the wall to see the conversation, because I don’t think the US or China has been very precise about what its red lines are. Kennedy, of CSIS said that both sides have not been very clear about the benefits the other side would get if they stayed within the red lines.

In what analysts called a “breakthrough,” Beijing and Washington said they would resume climate talks that had been frozen following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan in August, which Beijing claims as its own. The White House said the leaders “agreed to empower key senior officials to maintain communication and deepen constructive efforts.”

Taiwan is widely expected to be on the agenda when the two leaders sit down in the same room. But in a sign of the contentiousness of the issue, barbs have already been traded.

Yu thinks that the consolidation of power in the chinese system may give him more room to conduct diplomacy. She says that “Xi wants to resume a routed mechanism and dialogue to steady the ties with Biden.”

The meeting featured smiling officials and a commitment to reopen lines of communication for urgent global issues, which surprised many. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who had sparred with his Chinese counterparts at the 2021 summit in Alaska, is now expected to visit China next year.

Experts in the US and China say some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will already be considered a positive outcome – such as restoring suspended climate and military talks.

Dialogue between a President, a Senator, and an Asian Leader during the G-20 Summit: The impact of the Bali G-20 election on American politics

Thirty-seven minutes after wrapping up a late-night gala dinner with Asian leaders – punctuated by plates of wild Mekong lobster and beef saraman – an aide handed President Joe Biden the phone.

On the other end of the line was David Trone, a millionaire wine retailer who was thousands of miles away and was just getting re-elected to the House.

The call wasn’t long, a person familiar with it said, but reflected the warmth and enthusiasm Biden had deployed dozens of times in calls to winning candidates over the last week – each one further solidifying a midterm election that dramatically reshaped the prevailing view of his presidency.

Biden’s advisers say that the election results in other countries threatened to undermine his standing since they did not match historical trends.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan provided a glimpse into dynamics of the moment, pointing to the fact “that many leaders took note of the results of the midterms, came up to the president to engage him and to say that they were following them closely.”

“I would say one theme that emerged over the course of the two days was the theme about the strength of American democracy and what this election said about American democracy,” Sullivan told reporters aboard Air Force One as Biden traveled from Phnom Penh to Bali, Indonesia, for the Group of 20 Summit.

White House officials, even those who braced for losses in the weeks leading up to election day, have cast aside any reticence to take to their Twitter accounts or to TV interviews to call out pundits and politicians who predicted otherwise.

It is a reflection of a team that feels constantly underestimated and has long coveted unambiguous success after 21 months in office.

White House officials had been looking at the G-20 as the likely location for a sit-down with Xi. There were intensive preparations between the two sides in the lead up to announcing the engagement publicly. Regardless of domestic politics, there was a need to sit down for the tenuous state of the relationship.

Implicit in a White House mood that has only seemed to grow more buoyant with each new day of called races, the election results prove Biden’s theory of the case is, to some degree, actually working – that an American political landscape that served to rattle allies and foes alike over the last several years was, in fact, stabilizing.

At the same time as the Community Party congress was taking place, multiple people were aware of the potential for a split screen of a US president having to decide between his party’s unpopularity and his own power.

“Perception matters and so does political standing,” one US official said. “It’s not the be-all, end-all, and it was never a central focus or driver of the dynamics, but we’re well aware of the fact everyone was watching this election around the world.”

Far from a liability, however, each of the congratulatory calls back home have underscored the driving wind at the back of a president who entered the meeting with Xi at a moment where US-China relations appear to be inching away from great power competition toward inevitable conflict.

The vice president said that it was not a necessity for the meeting to achieve its goals, as his long-standing relationship with Chinese leader oversaw that during their time as vice president. US officials are also careful not to overstate the effect on a trip – and in a region – where the layers of complexity and challenges far exceed what voters decide in a congressional district or swing state.

Yet Biden isn’t subtle about his sweeping view of the geopolitical stakes of a moment he’s repeatedly framed as a generational “inflection point,” centered on the battle between democracy and autocracy.

Up until Election Day, allies and foes alike were in large part left to take Biden at his word when he attempted to answer those questions with an emphatic, “Yes.”

Former President Donald Trump, whose election lies had driven the assault on the US Capitol, hadn’t faded away and he remained the most powerful figure inside the Republican Party.

Biden had navigated the narrowest of congressional majorities to enact a sweeping domestic agenda, a chunk of which was done on a bipartisan basis. Yet he still held an approval rating in the low 40s, weighed down by four-decade high inflation and a population exhausted by years careening from crisis to crisis.

The likelihood that Biden would face the same kind of judgement as his predecessors in their first two years in office was even more likely. It was inevitable.

Instead, as he moved through bilateral meetings and pull-asides, gala dinners and summit gatherings, Biden’s own political vindication served another purpose for his approach on the world stage: Validation.

Biden “feels that it does establish a strong position for him on the international stage and we saw that I think play out in living color today,” Sullivan told reporters after Biden departed the ASEAN-US Summit, as the Xi meeting loomed. I think we will see that when we head into the G20 and his bilateral engagements in Indonesia.

Biden described the three-hour meeting as open and candid, saying he would manage the China relationship properly.

After a tough reelection race in a redrawn district, Nevada Rep. Dina Titus secured another term in office. Biden needed to pass along his congratulations.

A First Face-To-Face Exchange between the US and Beijing after the Indonesian Giant Reaction on the G20 Nuclear Security Summit

The US said the Indonesian summit yielded two important outcomes, one of which is an expected restart of talks on climate between the US and China.

The US said in a statement that the US, China and Russia agree that there should never be a Nuclear war and that they are opposed to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Leon Panetta, a former White House chief of staff, defense secretary and CIA chief, expressed cautious optimism after the talks on the sidelines of the G20.

“If the result of this meeting is to put the relationship back on a more diplomatic plane, in which instead of beating each other up they can begin a dialogue on the kind of issues that need to be dealt with, I think this meeting could very well be pivotal,” Panetta told CNN’s John King on “Inside Politics.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that neither side should attempt to change or subvert the other’s system.

To make sure that Russia does not win inUkraine and also make sure that Beijing doesn’t forge closer bonds with Iran, is to echo what President Richard Nixon did in the 1970s.

Things aren’t so different now, though the dynamic between the Kremlin and Beijing has reversed, with China the global power and Russia the junior partner.

Today’s meeting was the first face-to-face exchange between the two since Biden became president. Analysts say it took place after both leaders strengthened their political positions at home.

A senior research fellow at the London-based Chatham House, Yu Jie says that Biden’s “reasonable success” in the polls has given him a stronger position to guide Washington’s relationship with Beijing.

However, Yu says that Monday’s meeting will only be a small step towards improving relations because it will not resolve the grievances both sides have had against each other.

U.S. Policy on Taiwan: Addressing Beijing’s “Coercive and More Aggressive” Actions on the “Taiwan Strait”

The State Department said that Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also visit China in person sometime early next year to follow up on the Xi-Biden meeting.

Beijing sees the U.S. doing the opposite on all counts. It has imposed the semiconductor export bans and sanctioned some of China’s leading technology firms — moves Beijing decried.

The world is large enough for China and the US to prosper together, announced a foreign ministry spokeswoman.

On Taiwan, despite intense media speculation over Beijing’s intention, Biden said he did “not think there’s any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.”

But the president objected to Beijing’s “coercive and increasingly aggressive” Chinese actions in the waters around Taiwan, according to the White House readout, adding such behaviors “undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the broader region, and jeopardize global prosperity.”

The U.S. has pushed China to take a sharper stance against Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, despite signing a partnership with Moscow in February.

The two countries should not fight, according to a statement from the president. He said that both sides would continue talks on the basis of common understandings, in hopes of reaching an agreement.

Last year, China’s foreign minister Wang Yi put out three core demands — “bottom lines” — that China wanted the U.S. to agree to in order for relations to improve: to not get in the way in the country’s development, to respect China’s claims over places like Taiwan and to respect Beijing’s Communist Party rule.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has upped ties with Taiwan, with lawmakers including Pelosi visiting the island since August. Congress is considering drawing on the U.S. weapons stockpile to arm the island at American expense. Biden stressed in the press conference after meeting Xi that U.S. policy on Taiwan remains unchanged.

Hong Kong and mainland China buoyed by G20 results on Tuesday: The impact of Biden’s defeat to the Senate is stronger than in Washington

And while Biden came in to the G20 with a stronger position due to the narrow Democratic victory in the battle to control the Senate, he is up for reelection in two years himself.

Analysts think that the meeting could lead to better ties between the world’s top economic powerhouses. Stock markets in mainland China and Hong Kong were buoyed as a result, with technology giants such as Alibaba

            (BABA) and Tencent

            (TCEHY) soaring on Tuesday.

Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, said the goal of the meeting was to “build a floor” under declining relations between Beijing and Washington.

Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank, said that the meeting was a sign that both sides are willing to find common ground.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIS) Index was up nearly 4% on Tuesday as it was poised to record a third straight day of gains. The index soared after China decided to open borders more slowly and give a big rescue package to the ailing property sector.

Chinese technology shares, which had been hammered by a regulatory crackdown at home and rising geopolitical tension abroad, led markets higher on Tuesday. Alibaba shares shot up by 11% in Hong Kong, followed by Tencent, which was up 10%.

Biden’s reiteration of the US position on Taiwan and its “One China” policy was helpful, they said, as was Xi speaking out against the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/business/us-china-g20-meeting-stronger-ties-intl-hnk/index.html

In Australia, China and the G20 pandemic: Can a G20 summit change Australia’s status in terms of the Coronavirus?

The ING analysts said this was more progress than they had thought, and dominates what may otherwise turn out to be a fairly irrelevant G20 summit.

China has not hosted a world leaders summit in nearly three years, as Chinese President Xi presides over a series of face-to-face meetings with world leaders during the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia.

The Chinese leader and the French President met early in the day before the opening of the G20 summit, as a sign of his busy schedule.

The 43-minute talks between the French and Chinese presidents saw Xi support for a peace talks to end the war in Ukranian.

France, like other European countries, has hardened its position on China in recent years, increasingly viewing the country as a competitor and security concern.

For the majority of the pandemic Xi limited his diplomatic activities to virtual summits and video conferences, choosing to stay within China, rather than travel overseas.

In the case of the meeting between Biden and Xi, few in Australia think that will change the relationship between the countries.

The two countries have been locked in a bruising trade dispute and diplomatic freeze since early 2020, when China slapped tariffs on Australia following its call for an investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

Announcing his meeting with Xi after arriving in Bali on Monday, Albanese said having the meeting alone is a “successful outcome,” pointing to the lack of dialogue at the top level for years.

He told reporters that there are no preconditions for the meeting and that it was not in Australia’s interest to not have dialogue with major trading partners.

John Lee is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington and was a national security adviser to the Australian government.

The Case of Joe Biden and the State of the Union: Putin and the China-China Correspondence in the Era of the Cold War

Shortly after taking office and with the United States still reeling from the attack on the US Capitol, President Joe Biden declared, “We’ve got to prove democracy works.” He predicted that future generations will be researching the issue of who succeeded: democracy or autocracy.

As Biden and the Chinese leader met, the Ukrainian president returned to the shattered city of Kherson, the capital that was taken by the Russian invaders.

A year later, Putin’s push for a quick victory in Ukraine, one that would solidify Russia’s place as a top global player, looks like a disaster, and the alliance appears much less valuable to Xi.

Putin chose not to confront world leaders at the G20 summit in Indonesia, avoiding confrontations and becoming a pariah on the global stage.

The other leaders are not the only ones with a strong hand. Xi has just secured an unprecedented third term as China’s leader, and he can now effectively rule for as long as he wants. He doesn’t have to worry about elections, the press or a party. He is the ruler of a mighty country for a long time to come.

Also crucial in the epochal competition between the two systems is showing that democracy works, defeating efforts of autocratic countries such as China and Russia to discredit it and proving that unprovoked wars of aggression, aimed at suppressing democracy and conquering territory, will not succeed.

The Russian and Chinese leaders will speak via video conference on Friday as China and Russia look to mend relations strained by the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.

The two leaders will exchange views on regional issues and discuss their bilateral relations. On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Moscow and Beijing have drawn closer in recent years, with Xi and Putin declaring the two countries had a “no limits” partnership weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

Putin’s ill-equipped invasion of Ukraine has left Ukrainians frustrated with the status of relations between Russia and China in the light of recent events

The world looks different than it did 10 months ago, as the dynamic between the partners has shifted accordingly.

Putin’s invasion failed with setbacks including a lack of basic equipment. Morale within parts of Russia is low, with many civilians facing economic hardship during the bitter winter.

On Thursday, Russia launched what Ukrainian officials described as one of the biggest missile barrages since the war began in February, with explosions rattling villages and cities across Ukraine, damaging civilian infrastructure and killing at least three people.

Ukrainian officials have been cautioning for days that Russia is preparing to launch an all-out assault on the power grid to close out 2022, plummeting the country into darkness as Ukrainians attempt to ring in the New Year and celebrate the Christmas holidays, which for the country’s Orthodox Christians falls on January 7.

China, too, is growing more isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

In September, Modi told Putin that now was not the right time for a war and that he should move toward peace.

“Now with domestic issues out of the way, Xi is in a better position to work on Russia,” said Stimson Center’s Sun, referring to his consolidation of power in October.

She said that trade had increased between the two countries due to high energy prices, and that the two leaders could recommit to cooperate economically.

The protests, Covid outbreak, and ensuing economic toll have put Xi in a more vulnerable position that could cause less material and public support for Russia.

Why Do We Live in a World Without Nuclear Weapons? Now that Russia Has Lost the War, What Do We Need to Do About It?

And finally, to those who felt nuclear saber-rattling was an oxymoron in 2022 – that you could not casually threaten people with nukes as the destruction they brought was complete, for everyone on the planet.

Europe is not welcoming in an era of increased security. Even though Russia is showing itself to be less threatening, calls for greater defense spending still remain louder and more popular than they have ever been.

Russia has also met a West that, far from being divided and reticent, was instead happy to send some of its munitions to its eastern border. Western officials might also be surprised that Russia’s red lines appear to shift constantly, as Moscow realizes how limited its non-nuclear options are. It wasn’t supposed to happen. So, what does Europe do and prepare for, now that it has?

The credit for the ploy to conquer neighboring Ukranian goes to Putin. No longer was freedom a vague ideal. No longer was the battle for democracy a metaphor. There was a war with missiles, carnage and death.

There are people who say that Russia has lost the war. There are variables which could still lead to a stalemate or reversal of fortune. NATO could lose patience or nerve over weapons shipments, and seek economic expediency over long-term security, pushing for a peace unfavorable to Kyiv. At this time, that seems unlikely.

How can Moscow be certain The Button will work if the supply chains for diesel fuel for tanks are not functional when it is 40 miles from its border? Nuclear power are at greater risk if they reveal their missiles and capabilities do not function.

Thousands of innocent Ukrainians were killed in Putin’s attempt to revive the soviet empire. authoritarianism has been exposed as a system of war that is disastrous.

Time isn’t in Russia’s favor, that’s why America and its partners need to make that clear. The West should demonstrate readiness to mobilize, and quickly, its huge economic superiority to enable Ukraine to defeat Russia and to impose further severe sanctions. Russia will lose its limited resources and become more strained as a result of the costs of the military and economy.

This is not the first time America has done this. The Cuban Missile Crisis was the most dangerous nuclear confrontation to date and the position of the Soviet Union changed in a matter of days. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

The US foreign policy has been thrown into a spin by the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the forces try to remake the world.

The New Year’s Covid Wave in China: The Challenge of Failured Exit and the Implications for Vaccines

The most urgent and daunting task that China will face in the new year is how to deal with the consequences of its flawed exit from zero- Covidius, which threatens to cause hundreds of thousands of deaths and undermine the credibility of the Communist Party.

Large parts of the country face a Covid wave in the new year, as a result of the chaos that came about because of leader Xi Jinpings abrupt and ill-prepared exit from zero- Covid.

After three years of being shut down, life in China may finally start to return to normal, as the country learns to live with the Viruses thanks to the haphazard reopening.

“We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Xi said in a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech. “Everyone is holding on with great fortitude, and the light of hope is right in front of us. Let’s make an extra effort to pull through, as perseverance and solidarity mean victory.”

The sudden lifting of restrictions last month led to an explosion of cases, with little preparation in place to deal with the surging numbers of patients and deaths.

The healthcare system in the country is overwhelmed by an influx of bodies and unable to keep up with demand.

The experts warn the worst is yet to come. Beijing may have seen the outbreak’s peak, but not all cities and rural areas are safe from more infections.

The outlook is grim. Some studies estimate the death toll could be in excess of a million, if China fails to roll out booster shots and antiviral drugs fast enough.

Many are hesitant to take a booster for the elderly because of concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy will require significant time and effort, when the country’s medical workers are already stretched thin.

China’s Emergence after the December 26 Epidemic – and Implications for the Predictions for High-Level Foreign-Community Affairs and Foreign-Domain Relations

Any uptick in China’s growth will provide a vital boost to economies that rely on Chinese demand. There will be more international travel and production. But rising demand will also drive up prices of energy and raw materials, putting upward pressure on global inflation.

Other experts also expect the economy to recover after March. HSBC economists predicted a contraction for the first quarter, but 5% growth for the rest of the decade.

Despite all this uncertainty, Chinese citizens are celebrating the partial reopening of the border after the end of quarantine for international arrivals and the resumption of outbound travel.

Though some residents voiced concern online about the rapid loosening of restrictions during the outbreak, many more are eagerly planning trips abroad – travel websites recorded massive spikes in traffic within minutes of the announcement on December 26.

Foreign embassies and tourism departments in some countries welcome Chinese travelers with invitations on Chinese social media sites. Many countries are more cautious when it comes to travelers from China and its territories.

Officials from these countries have pointed to the risk of new variants emerging from China’s outbreak – though numerous health experts have criticized the targeted travel restrictions as scientifically ineffective and alarmist, with the risk of inciting further racism and xenophobia.

China emerged from its isolation, but will it be able to repair its reputation and relations?

The lack of top-level face-to-face diplomacy certainly didn’t help, neither did the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the wider public.

Communication lines are back open and more high-level exchanges are in the pipeline – with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, French President Emmanuel Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Italy’s newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni all expected to visit Beijing this year.

Tensions over Taiwan, technological containment, and China’s support for Russia are predicted to intensify in the new year, as illustrated by the virtual meeting that took place on December 30, when Xi underscored China’s support for Russia.

Both leaders expressed a message of unity, with Xi saying the two countries should “strengthen strategic coordination” and “inject more stability into the world,” according to Chinese state media Xinhua.

“(The war) has been a nuisance for China this past year and has affected China’s interest in Europe,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Center. The damage is not big enough to cause China to abandon Russia.

Democracy, Autocracy, and the Golden Rulers of the 21st Century: The Case of China, Iran, and Russia

Notice that it was an open question. At the time, many believed that autocracy would not only win, but would prove to be the better system. How many believe that today?

How many believe Russia, China or Iran offer a better model than an open society with all its foibles and challenges? How many of you think the US would benefit from a more authoritarian president?

Democracy fought back with conviction and determination. Autocrats went on the defensive. Even populism started to sputter. Many of the positive trends were forged with great effort and through a lot of human suffering.

With the progress of democracy just made, it is important for leaders to show that they are able to navigate the economic challenges of the coming months. They will face the efforts of autocrats such as Russian President Putin and Chinese leader, to regain the upper hand.

The brothers wanted the world to believe that their system was superior, so they would never question it at home. For 16 consecutive years, according to the non-partisan democracy monitor Freedom House, democracy was losing ground. About 20% of the world’s population live in what is called “Free countries” according to the organization’s research.

In 2022, while these global strongmen struggled, self-assured “geniuses” like Elon Musk – who more than once appeared to side with autocrats – revealed their own shortcomings, and oppressed populations fed up with decades of tyranny demanded change.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html

The Russian invasion of Crime and Democracy: How far will the rest of the world go to end their lives? A counterexample to the “Woman, Life, Freedom” activists

The invasion strengthened NATO, a democratic defense alliance, in a way nothing had in decades. Even Sweden and Finland – countries that had long cherished their neutrality – wanted to join.

No one expected the “Woman, Life, Freedom” activists to continue defying the regime and its brutality. How far will they go? How far will the regime go to end their existence? How will the rest of the world respond?

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html

Donald Trump, Bolsonaro, Johnson, Putin, Russia, and the failure of the United States to unite in a Demonstration

Donald Trump started a new campaign. The British call it a “damp squib,” a lead balloon. Many of his top choices failed in the election and he is becoming an increasingly isolated, pathetic figure. He called for Republicans to unite behind Kevin McCarthy as the new Speaker, but that didn’t seem to quell the rebellion. The struggle over the speakership seems to have been disorganized and messy, but democracy was on display. Trump’s legal problems seem endless.

Jair Bolsonaro lost his reelection bid in Brazil. Like Trump, he refused to admit defeat or attend the inauguration of the man who defeated him, President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Instead, a grim Bolsonaro decamped to Florida.

In the UK, the populist Boris Johnson lost the premiership and after an embarrassing interlude with the hapless Liz Truss, the decidedly non-populist centrist, Rishi Sunak, became prime minister. When Johnson led the country out of the EU, populists across Europe demanded their own versions of the move. We don’t hear that anymore. Marine Le Pen was defeated as French President thanks to her close association with Putin, which many European populists found disqualifying.

Russian President Putin and his Chinese counterpart agreed to meet in February of last year. Putin was still denying plans to invade Ukraine, which he would do just after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics.

In addition to fortifying NATO and strengthening alliances, which President Joe Biden’s administration has accomplished with great success, the US must aim to forestall the creation of a credible, unified force of aggressive antidemocratic regimes.

But the rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to unravel, and China had to rethink its commitment.

According to US intelligence, Russia has bought artillery shells from North Korea, another notorious dictatorship, which denies its involvement in a war whose morality is beyond the pale.

The first Iranian president to visit China in 20 years — an implication for human rights, terrorism, and terrorism-smuggling

This week, Ebrahim Raisi became the first Iranian president to visit China in 20 years. The trip, at Xi’s invitation, ostensibly aims to implement an agreement for a 25-year strategic cooperation pact the two reached at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021.

Both Democrats and Republicans in Congress are concerned that China could help Iran dodge sanctions regarding its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, support for terrorism and human rights abuses.