The War Between Russia and the EU: The Case Against a “Red Line” Solution to Putin’s Problem in the Kremlin

Putin’s logical option, Kortunov says, is to declare victory and get out on his own terms. But for this he needs a significant achievement on the ground. On February 24 of this year, Russia cannot simply get to where it was. Our mission is accomplished. So we go home… …There should be something that can be presented to the public as a victory.”

We need to win this fight as soon as possible because we need peace here and it won’t happen until Russia is defeated.

The logic of what is happening in the war may be masking some insight into Putin’s mindset. The Russian leader saw the world in a way that was strategic and historic. Many foreign observers thought it was pointless for Russia to invade Ukraine because it was not in Russia’s interest. He’s showing no sign of being deterred by a year of defeats and a stunning influx of sophisticated NATO weapons and ammunition into Ukraine. The Russian military has suffered massive losses, but he is sending convict recruits to their deaths in futile World War I-style advances.

The recent heavy-handed drive for 300,000 troops won’t reverse his battlefield losses, but it is running him up a dangerous political tab.

Since the “partial mobilize” was announced, 220,000 Russians have left their borders, according to official data from the EU. The EU said its numbers – nearly 66,000 – represented a more than 30% increase from the previous week.

Western analysts have noted Russia has grumbled consistently about these deliveries, but been relatively muted in its practical response to the crossing of what, as recently as January, might have been considered “red lines.”

Kortunov says he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin but that he understands the public mood over the huge costs and loss of life in the war. “Many people would start asking questions, why did we get into this mess? Why did we misplace so many people?

He used the same strategy when he annexed the peninsula in the first place and now threatens nuclear strikes ifUkraine tries to get back it.

The hail of fire against the Ukrainian civilians on Monday was very chilling, given that it happened a week after Putin warned that he was about to use a nuclear weapon. If he does not, it seems unlikely – given his obliviousness to civilian pain – that any such decision would be motivated by a desire to spare innocents from such a horrific weapon. Still, Kirby said that there was no indication that Russia was activating nuclear arms or that the US needed to change its own nuclear posture.

The Explosion of the Nord Stream Pipeline and Russia’s Implications for the First Russian Open-String Demonstration in Ukraine

The first explosion occurred at around 2 a.m., and the second at around 7 p.m.

Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.

The Nord Stream pipeline sabotage could, according to Hill, be a last roll of the dice by Putin, so that “there’s no kind of turning back on the gas issues. It is not going to be possible for Europe to continue to build up its gas reserves for the winter. So what Putin is doing is throwing absolutely everything at this right now.”

Western intelligence sources claim that Russian naval vessels were seen by European security officials in the days prior. NATO described the damage as a deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.

Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.

The impact of the war in Ukraine has a new chapter coming up. Some of Putin’s friends on the far right have turned against him, but not all. Some far-right politicians and prominent figures in Europe and the US echo Putin’s claims about the war. Their hope is to leverage discontent – which could worsen as winter comes and heating prices rise.

Putin is set to test Western resolve by trying to divide the West over terms for peace, despite the fact that he has failed in his attempt to unite the West.

It is expected that Putin will tell France and Germany that they need to end this war, they need to protect our territories at all costs and they need to put pressure on the Ukrainians to settle.

The likelihood of Putin using a nuclear weapon is low according to Alperovitch. But it can’t be brushed off. He thinks that there’s a chance that if he uses it, he’s going to do a demonstration strike someplace over the Black Sea in order to get the West to come to the negotiations.

The Putin War in Afghanistan: Why Russia Decided to Make the Cold War Against Russia During the First Reionization of the Balkans

Peter Bergen is a professor of practice at Arizona State University and a vice president at New America. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

The timing was worse. Putin lost Lyman just as he was publicly declaring that the Donetsk region – in which Lyman sits – was now annexed by Russia.

The left and the right in Russia are growing more critical of Putin due to the possibility of being imprisoned for up to 15 years for speaking out against his military operation in Ukraine.

With even his allies expressing concern, and hundreds of thousands of citizens fleeing partial mobilization, an increasingly isolated Putin has once again taken to making rambling speeches offering his distorted view of history.

(Indeed, his revisionist account defines his rationale for the war in Ukraine, which he asserts has historically always been part of Russia – even though Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.)

The book “Afghan Crucible” by historian Elisabeth Leake explains how the Soviets planned to install a puppet government in Afghanistan and leave the country as soon as possible after invading the country in 1979.

The US was reticent to give more support to the Afghan resistance because of a bigger conflict with the Soviet Union. The soviets ended their total air superiority in Afghanistan in 1986 after the CIA supplied the Afghans with highly effective anti-aircraft missiles.

If the US is focused on a proxy war against Russia, Beijing may see an advantage because it would strengthen its position in Asia.

The Ukrainians have been aided in their push against the Russians by Americansupplied anti-tank Javelin missiles and HIMARS, all of which were provided by the US.

A tragic example of Putin’s “genius” and “savvy” influence on Russian wars: the Romanov monarchy before the Russian Revolution of 1917

The fall of the Soviet Union was accelerated by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier, according to Putin.

The Romanov monarchy was weakened by the loss in the Russian war in 1905. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. The Romanov family was killed by the firing squad of the Bolsheviks.

On February 22 – just two days before Russia’s invasion – former US President Donald Trump, who has always fawned over Putin, publicly said that the Russian autocrat was “genius” and “savvy” for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent and moving his troops there in a prelude to full-blown invasion.

A tragic example of how an individual can be allowed to shape events without any challenge is Putin. Autocrats who put their cronies into key positions, control the media to crowd out discordant voices … are able to command their subordinates to follow the most foolish orders.”

The economic damage has already destroyed Putin’s reputation for providing stability, a key basis for his support of Russians who remember the chaotic years after the fall of the USSR.

Ukraine is having a tough time: the attacks on the Zaporizhzhia bridge on Monday are not the result of a single attack

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst. He is currently a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and has held roles at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. His opinions are not included in this commentary. CNN has more opinion.

In some ways, Monday’s attacks were not a surprise – especially after Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday accused Kyiv of attacking the Kerch bridge, calling it an “act of terrorism.”

According to officials, a wave of missiles, rockets, and drones has struck dozens of locations across the country in the last two days, hitting civilians in several major cities, including Kyiv, which is hundreds of miles away from the front lines.

The strikes occurred as people headed to work and while kids were being dropped off at schools. A friend in Ukranian sent me a text saying she had just exited the bridge when it was struck.

With reports that several missiles were shot down around my office in Odesa, the area remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

On Monday, Zaporizhzhia, a city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and several dozens injured.

In a video filmed outside his office Monday, a defiant President Volodymyr Zelensky said it appeared many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine were aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure. The prime minister ofUkraine said some provinces are without power and that at least 11 important infrastructure facilities have been damaged.

The early days of the war when Russian forces were near the capital saw some media outlets move to underground bomb shelters. In a metro station that serves as a shelter, a group of people took cover on the platform while a small group of people sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

Just as many regions of Ukraine had begun to make a comeback, the attacks could cause a blow to business confidence when many asylum seekers return home.

For Putin, the symbolism of the only bridge linking mainland Russia and Crimea cannot be overstated. That the attack took place a day after his 70th birthday (the timing prompted creative social media denizens to create a split-screen video of Marilyn Monroe singing ‘Happy Birthday, Mr President”) can be taken as an added blow to an aging autocrat whose ability to withstand shame and humiliation is probably nil.

Hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects seems to be a penchant of dictators. The Europe’s longest bridge was opened by Putin in a truck. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

What did Putin say about Ukraine in the wake of the Russian air attack on Ukraine, and what we can do about it, but how we don’t know what to do

The hilarious meme that lit up social media channels was a reaction to the explosion. Many shared their sense of jubilation via text messages.

The message was obvious for the world to see. Putin does not intend to be humiliated. He will not admit defeat. And he is quite prepared to inflict civilian carnage and indiscriminate terror in response to his string of battlefield reversals.

Putin has been placed on thin ice because of criticism at home and it was also an act of desperation.

“It has been repeated many times that Russia must not win the war. It is time to edit the phrase. Ukraine must win the war,” said Yermack. On a day when Russian airstrikes hit the city, he talked via teleconference. Their goal is to cause humanitarian catastrophe in Ukrainian towns and cities. “They want to make living conditions too harsh to survive this winter. They want to cause another wave of emigration.

Washington is now needed to use urgent telephone diplomacy to persuade China and India to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons, because they still have leverage over Putin.

Moscow’s attack on Ukrainian civilians as seen by Russian forces during the Kremlin invasion of Kiev a year after the first missile attack

There is need for high tech defense systems to protect energy infrastructure around the country. The need to protect heating systems is important during the winter season.

It’s time for the West to intensify their isolation of Russia with trade and travel restrictions, which is why Turkey and Gulf states need to be pressured to do so.

Anything short of these measures will only allow Putin to continue his senseless violence and further exacerbate a humanitarian crisis that will reverberate throughout Europe. The weak reaction will be taken as evidence that the Kremlin can weaponize energy, migration and food.

The attacks snatched away the semblance of normality that city dwellers, who spent months earlier in the war in subways turned into air raid shelters, have managed to restore to their lives and raised fears of new strikes.

The targets on Monday reflected the need to find new targets for Putin because of his inability to win battles on the battlefield.

The bombing of power installations on Monday seemed to suggest that the Russian President was going to suffer a lot as winter sets in, even as his forces retreat in the face of Ukrainian troops using Western arms.

US President Joe Biden is expected to announce an additional $1.8 billion in security assistance to Ukraine during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s expected visit to the White House. The boost in aid is expected to be led by the Patriot missile defense systems, according to a US official.

John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, suggested Washington was looking favorably on Ukraine’s requests and was in touch with the government in Kyiv almost every day. “We do the best we can in subsequent packages to meet those needs,” he told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.

Kirby was unable to say whether Putin’s strategy was changing from a losing battlefield battle to a campaign to kill civilians and destroy Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, though he said that it was already in the works.

It was something they had been planning for a long time. Kirby said that it wasn’t true that the explosion on the bridge might have accelerated their planning.

An onslaught on civilians would be consistent with the resume of the new Russian general in charge of the war, Sergey Surovikin, who served in Syria and Chechnya. In both places, Russia indiscriminately bombarded civilian areas and razed built-up districts and infrastructure and is accused of committing serious human rights violations.

The rush-hour attacks inUkraine could lead to another pivot in the conflict, as expressed by the French President.

He was talking about where he would go as winter starts to set in. Vinlman said that he was going to try to force the Ukrainian population to give up territory by going after the infrastructure.

Serhiy Hrabskiy, a retired colonel and commentator on the war for Ukrainian news media, said that Ukraine’s military has not hesitated to hit airfields, fuel tanks and ammunition depots that are legitimate military targets. Targeting sites in Crimea and cross-border artillery duels have become routine as the war has moved closer to Russia and the occupied peninsula.

“So imagine if we had modern equipment, we probably could raise the number of those drones and missiles downed and not kill innocent civilians or wound and injure Ukrainians,” Zhovkva said.

The lesson of this horrible war is that Putin has done everything in his power to break a nation he doesn’t believe has the right to exist.

Olena Gnes, a mother of three who is documenting the war on YouTube, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper live from her basement in Ukraine on Monday that she was angry at the return of fear and violence to the lives of Ukrainians from a new round of Russian “terror.”

“This is just another terror to provoke maybe panic, to scare you guys in other countries or to show to his own people that he is still a bloody tyrant, he is still powerful and look what fireworks we can arrange,” she said.

Not for the first time, the war is teetering towards an unpredictable new phase. Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow at the Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme, and they have been observing several different wars.

“We are on the edge of a very active phase of hostilities, February and March will be very active,” Andriy Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said on national television.

It means that, as winter approaches, the stakes of the war have been raised once more. Giles said that Russia would like to keep it up. The Ukrainian successes of recent weeks have sent a message to the Kremlin. Giles said, “They are able to do things that take us by surprise so let’s get used to it.”

The Ukrainian flag was hoisted over a building in the south Kherson region last month. Ukrainian officials say they have liberated hundreds of settlements.

Russia said it would help evacuate residents of occupied Kherson to other areas, as the Ukrainian offensive made gains in the region. The announcement came shortly after the head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, in the latest indication that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

The Russians are trying to avoid acollapse in their frontline before the winter sets in, according to a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

Ukrainian troops are focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastwards, having crossed the Oskil River in late September, with Moscow likely preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

“There are so many reasons why there is an incentive for Ukraine to get things done quickly,” Giles said. The resilience ofUkraine and its Western supporters is always going to be tested by the winter energy crisis in Europe and the damage done to the Ukrainian power grid.

The United States was the leader of massive support to Ukranian. The war in Ukraine reinvigorated NATO, even bringing new applications for membership from countries that had been committed to neutrality. It also helped reaffirm the interest of many in eastern European states – former Soviet satellites – of orienting their future toward Europe and the West.

After Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday disrupted the electricity supply in much of the country, Ukrenergo has been able to make up for it. The Ukrainian Prime Minister warned that it was important to repair damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to reduce their energy usage during peak hours.

The ability of both the West and Russia to sustain their operations is up against each other. “It’s very difficult to predict how long that will last.”

Jeremy Fleming, the UK’s spy chief, said in a speech on Tuesday that they know Russian commanders know that their supplies are running out.

The ISW said that Russia’s limited supply of precision weapons in this role may make it difficult for Putin to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives.

How much manpower each side has left will be important in determining how the momentum will shift in the coming weeks. Ukraine said it intercepted 18 cruise missiles on Tuesday and dozens more on Monday, but it is urging its Western allies for more equipment to repel any future attacks.

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

Putin may get some help on the way. An announcement by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that Belarus and Russia will “deploy a joint regional group of troops” raised fears of deepened military cooperation between the close allies and that Belarusian troops could formally join Russia in its invasion. Belarus has been complaining of alleged Ukrainian threats to its security in recent days, which observers say could be a prelude to some level of involvement.

“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. Should Putin prioritize an effort to regain the territory that has been reclaimed by Ukranian, it would give Russia a new route into the region.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has achieved one of his main goals by flipping the narrative of the conflict over the last couple of months, showing that Western aid can help win the war.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

The IRIS-T arrived from Germany this week and the NASAMS is expected from the United States. It was, Bronk said.

Sergey Surovikin – the commander in charge of operations in Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, and what he saw during Putin’s defeat in Ukraine

“I personally ​have know​n Sergei very well for almost 15 years. I can definitely say he is a real general and warrior, experienced, headstrong and foresighted commander who always takes patriotism, honor and respect above all,” Kadyrov posted on social media, following news of Surovikin’s appointment last Saturday. The army group is in good hands, he said.

Notably, he previously played an instrumental role in Russia’s operations in Syria – during which Russian combat aircraft caused widespread devastation in rebel-held areas – as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

Surovikin is “more familiar with cruise missiles, maybe he used his connections and experience to organize this chain of devastating attacks,” Irisov said​, referencing the reports that cruise missiles have been among the weapons deployed by Russia in this latest surge of attacks.

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Russian Armed Forces service personnel who took part in operations in Syria, including Sergey Surovikin, at the Kremlin on December 28, 2017.

He says that he personally signed the resignation papers from the air force. Now, Irisov sees him put in charge of operations in Putin’s brutal war in Ukraine – but what impact the general will or can have is not yet clear.

“Everything changed” on February 24, 2022, when Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began and TASS received orders from the FSB security service and defense ministry “that everyone will be prosecuted if they don’t execute the propaganda scheme,” Irisov said.

“After the full-scale invasion, once he got into a position of being bullied by someone like Vladimir Putin he knew exactly what he needed to do because it was just his gut feeling,” Yevhen Hlibovytsky, former political journalist and founder of the Kyiv-based think tank and consultancy, pro.mova, told me.

The man says he worked at aviation safety and air traffic control in Syria while at the Latakia air base. He spoke to high-ranking officers under him when he saw them during some missions.

“He made a lot of people very angry – they hated him,” Irisov said, describing how the “direct” and “straight” general was disliked at headquarters because of the way he tried to implement his infantry experience into the air force.

Irisov says he understands Surovikin had strong connections with Kremlin-approved private military company the Wagner group​, which has operated in Syria.

He berated the subordinate so much that he killed himself, according to reports by Russian media and think tanks.

And a book by the think tank the Washington DC-based Jamestown Foundation says that during the unsuccessful coup attempt against former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991, soldiers under Surovikin’s command killed three protesters, leading to Surovikin spending at least six months in prison.

In a 2020 report, Human Rights Watch named him as “someone who may bear ​command responsibility” for the dozens of air and ground attacks on civilian objects and infrastructure in violation of the laws of war​” during the 2019-2020 Idlib offensive in Syria. The UN figures show that the attacks killed at least 1,600 civilians and forced the displacement of an estimated 1.4 million people.

Vladimir Putin’s “butcher of Aleppo”: What does the current situation tell us about the Ukrainian military and militaries in Syria?

Vladimir Putin (left) toasts with then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev next to Sergey Surovikin after a ceremony to bestow state awards on military personnel who fought in Syria, on December 28, 2017.

In February this year, the head of the Aerospace Force of the EU was placed under European Union sanctions for helping and furthering actions that undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.

But Clark, from the ISW, suggests the general’s promotion is “more of a framing thing to inject new blood into the Russian command system” and “put on this tough nationalist face.”

He was appointed by the Russian military and received praise from other Russians as well as Yevgeny, who is the financier of theWagner Group.

He thinks the current situation is a reflection of what happened in April, when another commander, Alexander Dvornikov, was appointed overall commander of the operations.

“Similarly, he before then was a commander of one of the groupings of Russian forces and had sort of a master reputation in Syria much like Surovikin for brutality, earning this sort of name of the ‘butcher of Aleppo,’” Clark said.

If Putin decides that he is not up to the task, then the Kremlin can not have a good option. There aren’t many other senior Russian officers and it’s just going to lead to a further degradation of the Russian war effort.”

That’s not to say that mobilized forces are useless. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could fill out depleting units along the line of contact, cordon areas and man checkpoint in the rear. They’re not likely to become a capable fighting force. Already there are signs of discipline problems among mobilized soldiers in Russian garrisons.

Despite Ukrainian officials sounding the alarm about Russian attacks in the eastern part of the country there is still skepticism on the Ukrainian side about Russian capabilities.

“If President Zelenskyy reached a conclusion that maybe we should stop the punishment, we should negotiate.” I don’t believe he can do that anymore, because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.

The War on Ukraine: Why Putin’s Strategy is Wrong and Why he’s Done with Your Kids, And When Your Kids Are Dying

The annual Sea Island conference run by The Cipher Brief brings together members of the national security community, current and former, to look at the big picture of global security.

The conflict needs to end with the help of the Ukrainian military, according to an official from the President’s office.

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. In fact, he says, just the opposite. “Putin’s muscle memory when he runs into an obstacle is to escalate,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

The conflict might drag on indefinitely according to Charap. “There’s a scenario whereby the [war’s] … defining feature is that it does not come to an end in a conceivable short-term time frame,” he says. “A conflict that goes on for years and years.”

However, Ukraine’s civilians remain extremely vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes. “The blackmail of energy by cutting off gas supplies, by shutting off electricity, by bombing electric substations all overUkraine” is what Dmitri Alperovitch calls it. He said that Putin’s strategy will cause pain. But he added, “when your kids are dying, you’re going to keep fighting even if you don’t have heat, even if your economy of your country is in dire straits. I think he’s wrong on this one.

The end of the war: Comment on Paul Kolbe, CNN National Security Correspondent, David A. Andelman, and his attempt to distract from the obvious

At a Georgia conference with experienced security types, no one suggested the war was close to an end. “Most wars end with some sort of negotiated solution, whether that comes out of stalemate or defeat, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term,” said Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.

He noted that the war started with a Russian invasion in 2015, and is still as intense as ever. Greg Myre is an NPR National Security Correspondent. Follow him @gregmyre1.

They have been successful against a weak, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military by relying on this support in terms of arms, materiel and now training.

The author, David A. Andelman, is a correspondent for CNN who is also a winner of the Deadline Club Award. He was a correspondent for CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

Pressures on the European Union after a Russian-Russian White Paper on Energy Pricing and Implications for Europe’s Winter Energy Policy

This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

The European Union agreed to control energy prices at the earliest opportunity on Friday, in the wake of embargoes on Russians and a Kremlin cut off gas supplies at a moment’s notice.

These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.

While French President Emmanuel Macron waxed euphoric leaving the summit, which he described as having “maintained European unity,” he conceded that there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism.

Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, is skeptical of price caps. German officials are worried that caps on consumption would encourage people to use more of the country’s limited supplies.

These divisions are a part of Putin’s dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. They had scheduled a conference call for Wednesday in an effort to reach some agreement.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italy’s First Woman Prime Minister: Putin’s Love for Europe, Poland’s Orban, and the U.S. Embassy in Washington

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

Silvio Berlusconi, himself a four-time prime minister of Italy, was recorded at a gathering of his party loyalists, describing with glee the 20 bottles of vodka Putin sent to him together with “a very sweet letter” on his 86th birthday.

The Italian deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini said during the campaign that he wouldn’t want the sanctions against Russia to harm those who were already affected by them.

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They are not going to do it.

Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. The Secretary of State called his Ukrainian counterpart in order to extend America’s support.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

Russian Warfare in the Light of Cold War II: The State of the Military-Industry Complex in the Kremlin Revisited

All these actions point to an increasing desperation by Russia to access vitally-needed components for production of high-tech weaponry stalled by western sanctions and embargos that have begun to strangle the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era came to an end decades ago.

The US seized the property of Yury Orekhov and his agencies that were responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russians.

The Justice Department announced charges against companies and individuals who tried to bring high-tech equipment into Russia.

There are still hardliners, such as the Russian puppet leader in the DONETSK, who said they weren’t coming to kill you but to convince you. We will kill you if you do not want to be convinced. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

MH17 and the Cold War: How Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled out a new war of aggression in the United States, Europe, and beyond

A former CNN producer and correspondent named Frida Ghitis is now a world affairs columnist. She contributes to CNN, The Washington Post, and World Politics Review. She has her own opinions on this commentary. CNN has more opinion on it.

There’s “strong indication” Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the go-ahead to supply anti-aircraft weapons to separatists in Ukraine, according to the international team investigating the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in 2014.

The Iran nuclear deal is under scrutiny because of the growing relationship between Moscow and Tehran, as well as the other countries interested in restoring it.

In fact, the war in Ukraine is already affecting everyone, everywhere. The conflict has also sent fuel prices higher, contributing to a global explosion of inflation.

The historian Yuval Noah Harari has argued that no less than the direction of human history is at stake, because a victory by Russia would reopen the door to wars of aggression, to invasions of one country by another, something that since the Second World War most nations had come to reject as categorically unacceptable.

The consequences of what happens far from the battlefield are still being felt today. When oil-producing nations, led by Saudi Arabia, decided last month to slash production, the US accused the Saudis of helping Russia fund the war by boosting its oil revenues. (An accusation the Saudis deny).

Separately, weapons supplies to Ukraine have become a point of tension with Israel, which has developed highly effective defense systems against incoming missiles. Israel refuses to provide the Iron Dome and David’s Sling because of its own strategic concerns.

Moscow temporarily suspended an agreement that allowed the reopening of the maritime corridors of Ukraine, after Russian Navy ships were struck at the port of Sevastopol. Putin’s announcement was immediately followed by a surge in wheat prices on global commodity markets. The prices people pay for bread in Africa and across the globe influence how much they pay.

Higher prices not only affect family budgets and individual lives. They pack a political punch if they have such powerful momentum. The war has made incumbent political leaders on the defensive in many countries.

Breaking the War on Ukraine: How Will the US Arms Be Providing for High-Intensity Nuclear Forces? A Comment on the Debate Between Ukraine and the White House

There is more than one on the fringes. Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader who could become speaker of the House after next week’s US elections, suggested the GOP might choose to reduce aid to Ukraine. The letter was removed by the Progressives after they called for negotiations. Evelyn Farkas, who served in the Pentagon during the Obama administration, said that they were all bringing a big smile to Putin.

In recent weeks, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley has led a push to find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine.

The result is a growing debate inside the administration over whether Ukraine’s recent gains on the battlefield should spark a renewed effort to seek some sort of negotiated end to the fighting, according to officials.

The comments left administration officials unsurprised – given Milley’s advocacy for the position internally – but also raised concerned among some about the administration appearing divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

The decision is up to the Ukrainians. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine,” Biden said at a Wednesday press conference when asked about the potential for talks.

In internal deliberations, officials said Milley has sought to make it clear that he is not urging a Ukrainian capitulation, but rather that he believes now is an optimal time to drive toward an end to the war before it drags into spring or beyond, leading to more death and destruction without changing the front lines.

The view is not held by all of the administration. One official explained that the State Department is on the opposite side of the pole from Milley. That dynamic has led to a situation where military brass are more interested in diplomacy than US diplomats.

Milley’s position comes as the US military has dug deep into US weapons stockpiles to support the Ukrainians and is currently scouring the globe for materials to support Ukraine heading into winter – such as heaters and generators – which has raised concerns about how long this war can be sustained, officials said.

The US plans to provide 100,000 rounds of South Korean arms for use in the battle in Ukraine, as part of a wider effort to find weapons for high-intensity battles, according to a US official. As part of the deal, the US will purchase 100,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer ammunition, which will then be transferred to Ukraine through the US.

The War in Ukraine: A week’s worth of news for the U.S. and for Russia, and an update on what the US and EU have to say

Ned Price would not say if the State Department agrees with Milley. Price deviated from the position that US officials have advocated in recent months: a diplomatic solution is needed, as long as Zelensky supports it.

Ukrainian authorities have been stepping up raids on churches accused of links with Moscow, and many are watching to see if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows through on his threat of a ban on the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store for a working dinner Monday in Paris.

There is a conference in France on Tuesday that will feature a video address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner was freed Dec. 8 after nearly 10 months in Russian detention and following months of negotiations. Her release came in exchange for the U.S. handing over convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. Griner is back in the U.S. and reunited with her wife. Bout is back in Russia and is reported to have joined an ultranationalist party.

The new measures targeting Russian oil revenue took effect. There’s a price cap and a European Union embargo on Russian oil imports.

Russian forces turned the city of Bakhmut into burned ruins, Zelenskyy said. The city in the eastern Donbas region has been the site of fierce fighting as Russia attempted to take it.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/12/1141827823/latest-on-ukraine-a-weekly-recap-and-look-ahead-at-russias-war-dec-12

The First 24 Hours of Russia’s First World War: When Zelensky and Putin Met Putin in the Llysée Palace

The leaders of France and Turkey received a phone call from President Zelenskyy on Dec. 11 in an effort to improve relations between Russia and the US after the Russian invasion.

You can read past recaps here. You can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen and subscribe to the State of Ukraine program on NPR.

I was in Paris at the time and saw Zelensky pull up to the lysée Palace in a small car, while Putin drove away in a limo. (The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, hugged Putin but chose only to shake hands with Zelensky).

In the days leading up to Russia’s full-scale invasion, Zelensky was in a steep, downward trajectory in popularity ratings from the all-time high in the first days of his administration.

“Paradoxically, Zelensky achieved the thing that Putin most wanted to achieve but failed … to rally support domestically with a patriotic war in order to deflect and distract from his abject failures at home. In Putin’s mind, to be shown up by a mere ‘decadent’ comedian must be excruciatingly painful for him,” New York-based geopolitical and business analyst Michael Popow told me.

The leader who was offered an emigration by the US as Russia launched a full-scale invasion joked: “I need more than just a ride.”

It is perhaps easy to forget that Zelensky honed his political muscles earlier in his career standing up to another bully in 2019 – then-US President Donald Trump, who tried to bamboozle the novice politician in the quid pro quo scandal.

The fog of war seems a long, long way since Zelensky thanked his supporters for giving him the victory in a nightclub where he was campaigning. Standing on stage among the fluttering confetti, he looked in a state of disbelief at having defeated incumbent veteran politician Petro Poroshenko.

The war appears to have turned his ratings around. Just days after the invasion, Zelensky’s ratings approval surged to 90%, and remain high to this day. Zelensky was rated highly by Americans early on in the war for his handling of international affairs.

His previous professional life includes many people from the comedy group Kvartal 95. Even in the midst of the war, a press conference held on the platform of a Kyiv metro station in April featured perfect lighting and curated camera angles to emphasize a wartime setting.

As for his skills as comforter in chief, I remember well the solace his nightly televised addresses brought in the midst of air raid sirens and explosions in Lviv.

The Rise of the Patriots? Celebrity and Power: From King Charles to the Founder of the United States to the Future of the Cold War

“By wearing T-shirts and hoodies, the youthful, egalitarian uniform of Silicon Valley, rather than suits, Zelensky is projecting confidence and competence in a modern way, to a younger, global audience that recognizes it as such,” Kimberly Chrisman-Campbell, a fashion historian and author of “Red, White, and Blue on the Runway: The 1968 White House Fashion Show and the Politics of American Style,” told NPR.

“He is probably more comfortable than Putin on camera, too, both as an actor and as a digital native,” she added. Zelensky is doing a better job balancing authority with accessibility, but I believe both of them want to come across as more than just a celebrity.

Journeying to where her husband can’t, Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicator in international fora – projecting empathy, style and smarts. Most recently, she met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of the Holy Family in London. (Curiously, TIME magazine did not include Zelenska on the cover montage and gave only a passing reference in the supporting text).

Zelensky has strong winds at his back and there are signs that may be affecting his international influence. Zelensky had argued that the $60 a barrel price cap imposed by the G7 on Russian crude was excessive and should be lowered to $30 in order to avenge the actions of the Kremlin.

As Zelensky said in a recent nightly video address: “No matter what the aggressor intends to do, when the world is truly united, it is then the world, not the aggressor, determines how events develop.”

There are two main deliverables, the first being the Patriot missile systems. They are considered to be the US’s gold standard of air defense. NATO preciously guards them, and they require the personnel who operate them – almost 100 in a battalion for each weapon – to be properly trained.

More precision weapons help ensure that the targets are hit and that no civilians remain nearby. Russia has been bombarding Ukraine with hundreds of thousands of shells and the country isn’t going to be able to use them.

The new deal will likely include the supply of guidance kits, or Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which Ukraine can use to bolt on to their unguided missiles or bombs. It will increase accuracy and the rate at which they burn through ammonium in their forces. A lot of the $1.8 billion is expected to fund munitions replacements and stocks.

Whatever the eventual truth of the matter – and military aid is opaque at the best of times – Biden wants Putin to hear nothing but headline figures in the billions, to sap Russian resolve, push European partners to help more, and make Ukraine’s resources seem limitless.

The remnants of the Trumpist “America First” elements of that party have echoed doubts about how much aid the US should really be sending to the edges of eastern Europe.

The bill for Russia’s slow defeat in this conflict is relatively small, given Washington’s huge defense budget.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to Congress “extraordinary,” saying the country’s fight against Russian aggression has “proven that they are a really good investment for the United States.”

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

“I hope that they will send more than one,” she added. She said that the US and NATO have shied away from providing advanced equipment due to how effective the Ukrainian military is.

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

Clinton thinks that Putin is thinking of sending bodies of Russians into the fight in Ukraine.

The missiles could be destroyed before they can be deployed if the strikes destroy the missiles on the ground.

“If somebody attacks you, you fight back,” Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister who now advises President Volodomyr Zelensky, said in an interview earlier this month, after the first Ukrainian long-range strike on Russian military targets hit Engels and another airfield in central Russia.

Kiev’s Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Visemoldovich Zelenskyy’s Plan to Have a Peace Summit by the End of February

The Kinzhal, the most sophisticated missile in Russia, can only reach targets in minutes and is hard to shoot down, said Mr. Budanov.

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s foreign minister on Monday said that his government is aiming to have a peace summit by the end of February, preferably at the United Nations with Secretary-General António Guterres as a possible mediator, around the anniversary of Russia’s war.

But Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Associated Press that Russia could only be invited to such a summit if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first.

Last week’s visit by the President of Zelenskyy to the U.S. yielded positive results, as Kuleba revealed that the U.S. government had a special plan to get the missile battery up and running. The training usually lasts a year.

Kuleba said during the interview at the Foreign Ministry that Ukraine will do whatever it can to win the war in 2023, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role.

The United Nations is the best place to hold the summit, because it is not about making a favor to a certain country. “This is about putting everyone on the same page.”

Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula at the Group of 20 summit in November 2015, including the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of prisoners, and a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145539638/ukraine-russia-peace-summit-foreign-minister

Kuleba’s first foreign visit to the U.S. since the war started: a reminder of the importance of the United States for Ukraine

Kuleba said, “He is a man of principle and integrity and is efficient at mediation and negotiation.” We would be glad to have his participation.

“They say they are ready for negotiations, but everything they do on the battle field proves this to be false,” he said.

Zelenskyy’s first foreign trip since the war started was his visit to the U.S. Kuleba praised Washington’s efforts and underlined the significance of the visit.

Kuleba, who was part of the delegation to the U.S., said that the show demonstrates how important the United States is for Ukraine.

He said that the U.S. government developed a program for the missile battery to complete the training faster than usual “without any damage to the quality of the use of this weapon on the battlefield.”

While Kuleba didn’t mention a specific time frame, he said only that it will be “very much less than six months.” He said the training will be done outside of Ukranian.

Kuleba was second to Zelenskyy for carrying the message of the Ukrainian government in Russia’s ground and air war.

Russia has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council and should be excluded from it. Kuleba said they have long “prepared for this step to uncover the fraud and deprive Russia of its status.”

The Foreign Ministry says that Russian never went through the legal procedure for acquiring membership and taking the place of the USSR at the U.N. Security Council after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

War against Ukraine has left Russia isolated and struggling with more turbulent-ahedrosphere-imagine-is-that-now?

At that time, Putin said his forces were going on a military campaign that would end in a few weeks.

Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Suppression of criticism of the military or leadership has been passed by the Draconian laws. 45% of people who have been detained for demonstrating against the war are women, according to a leading independent monitoring group.

High profile voices have been meted out with long prison sentences for questioning the conduct of the Russian army.

The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The state has also vastly expanded Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws, arguing the war in Ukraine reflects a wider attack on “traditional values.”

For now, it is still targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.

New ‘fake news’ laws that criminalized the fact that a story was real made many leading independent media outlets and innovative online investigative companies relocate or shut down.

The restrictions on internet users are also extended. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Russians can still access independent sources of information through technical workarounds. State media propaganda helps older Russians, with angry talk shows spreading conspiracy theories.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

The Russian War in the Early 1900s: How the Soviet Union Became a Cold War and What We Can Learn from Its Failure

Many of the perceived government opponents left in the war’s early days because of concerns of persecution.

Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. McDonald’s and several other brands ultimately relaunched under new names and Russian ownership. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.

Europe is going to blink first when it comes to sanctions, as it becomes angry with the soaring energy costs at home. He instituted a five-month ban on oil exports to countries that follow the price cap, which is likely to cause more pain in Europe.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Daily briefings from Russia’s defense ministry recap endless successes on the ground. Putin makes sure that everything is going according to plan.

Russia vastly underestimated the willingness of Ukrainians’ to resist, because of the length of the war.

By late summer and into the fall, however, Ukrainian forces had struck back in a dramatic counteroffensive, routing Russian forces from parts of the south and east and liberating the key city of Kherson.

Russia’s illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine following unrecognized referendums in September has only underscored Moscow’s problems: it hasn’t been able to establish full control over the lands it now claims as its own.

The true number of Russian losses are officially less than 6,000 men, but they remain taboo at home. Western estimates place those figures much higher.

NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders with the addition of long- neutral states, as a result of Russia’s invasion.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, which would be unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have purchased discounted Russian oil, but have stopped short of fully supporting the Russian military campaign.

Russian President Vladimir Zelensky speaks for the first time in the evening before Moscow strikes in Ukraine – a warning warning from the Kremlin

The state of the nation address was scheduled to be given in April but has been repeatedly delayed. The annual “direct line” in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians was completely canceled.

The annual December press conference, which allows the Russian leader to handle questions from pro-Kremlin media, was also tabled.

There was no reason given by the Kremlin for the delays. It is thought that the Russian leader has exhausted his good news, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory.

Zelensky said that the war with NATO is not the war with Russia. “It is not for something historical. It’s for one person to remain in power until the end of his life.

On Saturday Zelensky spoke Russian for the first time in his evening address as Moscow began a series of deadly strikes inUkraine ahead of New Year.

Moscow intends to “intimidate, leave us in the dark for the new year, cause as much damage to civilian infrastructure as possible,” Shmyhal said on Telegram.

There are attacks on civilians in different parts of the country. Residential buildings, hotel, shop and place for festivals were damaged. There are dead and injured,” he wrote.

Air swarm attacks on civilian structures in Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv regions

Three people died and three more were wounded in the Donetsk region, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Tymoshenko said on Telegram.

One person was wounded in the Zaporizhzhia region. Two were killed and one wounded in the Kharkiv region. Two people were wounded in the Kherson region, while one died in the Chernihiv region.

The 26 air strikes by the enemy were on civilian infrastructure. In particular, the occupants used 10 Shahed-136 UAVs, but all of them were shot down. The General Staff said in its latest update that the enemy launched 80 attacks from multiple rocket launchers, and civilian settlements were also hit.

Russia is preparing for a lot of things. It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training. I can tell you that we don’t exclude any scenario in the next two to three weeks when it comes to offensive from different directions.

“What have we learned in the last three years?” Theoretical report on Ukraine’s municipal life support system’, said Ukraine Mayor Alyona Tkachuk

“The municipal ‘life support system’ of the capital is operating normally. 30% of consumers are without electricity. Due to emergency shutdowns,” he said on Telegram.

Klitschko also reported that the restrictions were applied to check the open section of the red metro line in the city “for the presence of remnants of missile debris.”

I really want to win in 2023 and have more bright impressions. I miss it very much. I would love to travel and open borders. One shouldn’t stand still and I also think about personal and professional growth. The 29-year-old Alyona said that she has to develop and work for the benefit of the country.

“This year, it’s a symbol, not that it’s a small victory, but a symbol that we survived the year,” said Tatiana Tkachuk, a 43-year-old pharmacy employee.

Everyone who helpsUkraine is thanked by me. We have made many friends. And in order to understand that we have a lot of good things, unfortunately, we had to go through terrible things. But so many people are doing real miracles for Ukraine.”

“On New Year’s Eve, cities should be covered by wave of celebration, joy and hope. Zelenska said that Ukrainian cities were once again covered by missile wave from Russia.

The End of Ukraine is Safe for Russia, and the Pentagon is Preparing for a New offensive in the Southern Ukrainian Sea: A statement from the Secretary of Ukraine

America has done this before. The most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far happened when the Cuban Missile Crisis, which was the most dangerous, shifted the Soviet Union’s position. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

Third, the West should make clear to a wide range of Russian audiences that it is safe to end the war by leaving Ukraine. An orderly withdrawal is not likely to lead to regime change. Neither outcome is an official goal of Western policy, and talk of them is unhelpful and even counterproductive. Some in the West will resist the idea of any such reassurance. If the elites of Russia conclude that leaving Ukraine is dangerous for Russia, they won’t want to push for an end to the war. Reassurance does not mean compromise.

Following Danilov’s comments, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said Wednesday that there a signs Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive in southern Ukraine.

“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.

“During the week, military representatives from the two countries will practice joint planning of the use of troops based on the prior experience of armed conflicts in recent years,” the ministry said in a statement.

Are Russians willing to send more troops into the meat grinder to fight Ukraine? NATO and US leaders will unite to ensure Ukraine does not lose its ground

The Ukrainian President traveled to Europe and called for allies to send fighter jets to his country.

For the second year in a row Oksana Markarova attended the State of the Union speech but the war in Ukraine did not receive as much attention.

It’s unlikely that Russians will be particularly organized and so less successful, but they seem to be willing to send more troops into the meat grinder.

“They amassed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.

Ahead of the anniversary next week of the Russian invasion, US and Western leaders are ready to unite and show their strength to ensure that NATO is in the conflict for years and until Moscow is defeated.

The Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff said on Tuesday that Russia had lost strategically, operationally, and tactically. NATO secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned on Wednesday that Putin cannot win as he explained why NATO was rushing arms to Ukrainian forces. The US ambassador to NATO told CNN that Washington was applying pressure on Moscow so it could affect Putin.

And in an opinion article by CNN’s Peter Bergen, retired US General and former CIA Chief David Petraeus said the conflict would end in a “negotiated resolution” when Putin realizes the war is unsustainable on the battlefield and on the home front.

The Cold War Between the West and the West: Prospects for a Resolution in the House of Common Concerns with the US-China Warsaw Pact

The Western rhetorical and diplomatic offensive will ratchet up further as Vice President Kamala Harris heads to the Munich Security Conference this week. President Joe Biden will meanwhile visit Poland and a frontline NATO and ex-Warsaw pact state next week, bolstering his legacy of offering the most effective leadership of the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.

In the US House for instance, some members of the new Republican majority are skittish. Gaetz wants the US to demand a peace agreement immediately for Ukraine and for aid to be stopped. The House and Senate have a bipartisan majority for saving Ukraine. It is not certain if Biden can guarantee huge aid packages for Ukraine. And US aid might be in serious doubt if ex-President Donald Trump or another Republican wins the 2024 election.

The outside world knows Putin is not contemplating defeat or an exit from the war because of the complete lack of any diplomatic framework for ceasefire talks.

A leading expert on Russia and Putin, who worked in Donald Trump’s White House, claimed at a senate hearing that there was no sign that Putin is giving up.

The prospect of China leaning on Putin for an end to the war was remote even before the lurch in US-China relations caused by the flight of a Chinese spy balloon across the US this month.

“You’re going to end up with an albatross around your neck,” Sherman said at an event at the Brookings Institution, though admitted the US was concerned about tightening ties between China and Russia at a time when it is locked in simultaneous showdowns with each power.

The people of the US and its allies have largely accepted the enormous expense of supporting Ukraine in its fight, and they have been steadfast in their determination to do so. In the United States, there is limited political resistance to the far right and far left. As the war drags on, questions will become more common. As Representative Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House, a Republican and a strong supporter of Ukraine, has warned, “There should be no blank check on anything.”

Neither side has released figures lately, but analysts estimate that about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war so far. In comparison, Ukraine has had over 100,000 killed or wounded in action.

Russia then shifted its offensive to the south, where its forces captured the city of Mariupol after a devastating siege in an effort to secure a corridor along the Black Sea coast linking the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region, areas Moscow invaded and annexed in 2014.

The stakes are high for Zelenskyy. A survey of Ukrainians in September showed they were against territorial concessions to Russia. “Any sort of cease-fire without Russian military defeat basically means regrouping,” says Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University whose research is currently focused on the war in Ukraine. That would lead to more attacks, he says.

A professor at Harvard University says it’s difficult for the Ukranian people to consider sacrificing the territorial integrity of the country.

As a history professor at London School of Economics and Political Science, I agree that Putin cannot afford to sign a negotiated deal if it entails giving up any territory.

A military solution looks just as unlikely, despite seemingly spectacular gains by Ukraine on the battlefield resulting in heavy losses of Russian soldiers and armor.

Zelenskyy said that his country’s forces would be able to take the peninsula, which the Ukrainian leadership believed would cause a coup against Putin. Most analysts agree.

They believe that “not only Putin would go down, but some kind of second collapse would happen similar to the Soviet collapse” in 1991, Zubok says. I think it’s a hell of a game. A very, very dangerous game.”

The possibility of a military response from theWest doesn’t mean Putin would follow through on his threat.

The Kremlin has had to use North Korea and Iran for missiles and drones because of the heavy losses of military equipment in Russia.

The author of The Return of History, due for release in May, states that Russia is diminished.

However, the idea that Russia is simply running out of what it needs to wage war is mostly “wishful thinking,” according to Alexseev. In Russia defense factories work in three or four shifts.

The Kremlin’s forces are still powerful despite the sanctions and they still have the supplies of high-tech weapons.

He says Russia has changed their strategy and gotten better from their defeats, and now has 300,000 troops in the country.

“They are burning through ammunition very quickly, faster than we’re manufacturing it,” Watling recently told NPR. Zelenskyy commented on the possibility of fatigue among his military aid donors during an address to the security conference in Germany.

Russian Unhappiness in the Wartime: Mariupol 2.o as a Probe of the Scale of Russia’s Wartime

There are signs of unhappiness in Russia. The Levada-Center conducted a survey in November. It showed a slight increase in support for Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, but at the same time a majority of those surveyed (53%) said it was time to start negotiations.

An outcome that would not satisfy anyone seems the most likely. The siege of that city in the early months of the war is what Alexseev calls Mariupol 2.o. “But on the scale of the entire Ukraine,” he says.