September 30: Russia’s annexation of Ukraine and September 27: Ukraine’s war with Russia in the Cold, Evaporating, Disrupted Regime

September 30: World powers refuse to recognize Putin’s claim of Russia annexing four regions from Ukraine. Ukraine applied for NATO membership.

Quality and capability are degraded in the army that they join. The composition of Russia’s military force in Ukraine — as much of its prewar active duty personnel has been wounded or killed and its best equipment destroyed or captured — has radically altered over the course of the war. The Russian military leadership is unlikely to know with confidence how this undisciplined composite force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. Recent experience shows these troops might abandon their weapons and equipment in panic, as demoralized forces did in the region in September.

September 27: Russia claimed that staged referendums in four occupied regions of Ukraine showed the people chose to join the Russian Federation. United Nations leaders and many countries called the process a sham and a violation of international law.

A group of European presidents made a statement in support of Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Pope Francis made a strong call for Putin to end the war.

You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to and subscribe to NPR’s State of the Ukrainians show for updates throughout the day.

The collapse of the Russian forces that were said to be allowingUkraine to take another huge swath of territory is unlikely, according to American officials. But individual Russian units could break in the face of sustained Ukrainian pressure, allowing Kyiv’s army to continue retaking towns in the Donbas and potentially seize the city of Kherson, a major prize in the war.

Russia is currently defending its stronghold in the eastern region of the Donbas and the southern peninsula of Crimea.

The disarray of the troops on the ground reflected the fact that Russia did not yet have a grasp on what its future borders would be. Mr. Putin plans to consult with the population of these regions about their borders, according to his spokesman.

The military conscription Mr. Putin ordered on Sept. 21 to bolster his battered forces has set off nationwide turmoil and protest, bringing the war home to many Russians who had felt untouched by it. Many men have been drafted who were supposed to be ineligible based on factors like age or disability.

That isn’t to say mobilized forces will be useless. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They are, however, unlikely to become a capable fighting force. There are signs that there are discipline problems among soldiers in Russian garrisons.

Russia launched a barrage of attacks hitting Kyiv and cities across Ukraine, Oct. 10, in what’s considered its most extensive attack since the early days of its invasion of Ukraine this year.

NATO will hold nuclear deterrence exercises starting Monday. NATO says the “Steadfast Noon” drills are an annual training activity, even though it warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine.

The First Russian Convoys from Ukraine Arrived on Oct. 15: Russia and Ukraine Faced with a Damping Black Hole

Russian agents are believed to have taken eight people into custody after they were suspected of causing an explosion on a bridge.

Two men shot at Russian troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine, killing 11 people and wounding 15 before being killed themselves, Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Oct. 15.

The first convoys of Russian service members arrived inBelarus on Oct. 15 and are expected to be part of a “regional grouping” to protect the country from threats from the West.

According to American intelligence assessments, the Ukrainian military has a window of opportunity to make headway against Russia in the next few weeks if it can push forward in the south and northeast, avoiding cloud cover and muddy ground.

Both sides – Russia and Ukraine with its western backers – are doing their best to turn the screws ahead of a winter which could ultimately decide who will win the most titanic clashes of forces in Europe since the Second World War. It’s worth a deep look at what’s in play right now.

Editor’s Note: David A. Andelman, a contributor to CNN, twice winner of the Deadline Club Award, is a chevalier of the French Legion of Honor, author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He was in Europe and Asia for The New York Times. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

Putin is hoping the political clock and cold winter in Europe will make the Western powers less willing to attack Russia, since they have all but eviscerated his military-industrial machine.

This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

In the early hours of Friday, European Union powers decided to control energy prices, which have skyrocketed in the aftermath of embargoes on Russian imports and the cutting of natural gas supplies by the Kremlin.

An emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub, the Dutch title transfer facility, and permission for EU gas companies to create a monopoly on buying gas on the international market are included in these.

The President of France conceded that there was only a clear mandate for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism at the summit, which he described as having maintained European unity.

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is skeptical of price caps. The energy ministers need to discuss details with Germany, who worry that such caps would encourage higher consumption.

These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Germany and France have disagreed on a number of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the Kremlin-Putin Conflict: Two Activist Left-Right Campaigns in Washington

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

During a recent gathering of his loyalists, Berlusconi joked that he received 20 bottles of vodka from Putin and a letter on his 86th birthday.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland has taken offense at the comments Viktor Orban made about Putin.

Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They will not do it.

Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony blinken talked to his counterpart in Ukranian.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

At the same time, the West is turning up the pressure on Russia. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

The US announced the seizure of property of Yury Orekhov, a Russian procurement agent that was responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end- users.

Individuals and companies are facing charges from the Department of Justice for trying to bring high-tech equipment into Russia.

Shurokin suggested last week on Moscow television that the Kremlin wanted to forceUkrainian into Russia to keep it from joining the EU and NATO. Shurokin said: “We just want one thing, for Ukraine to be independent of the West and NATO and be friendly to the Russian state.”

Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

The scale of Russian losses in these advances is not known. The institute said that the advances were fatal to units on well-stocked defensive positions of the Ukrainian troops. The Ukrainian military estimates of Russian casualties are thought to be overstated, and the relative increase in reported numbers suggests a toll that is rising. On Friday, the Ukrainian military said more than 800 Russian soldiers had been wounded or killed over the previous 24 hours.

Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military, said in a statement posted on the Telegram messaging app on Thursday that Russian forces had tripled the intensity of attacks along some parts of the front. He didn’t say what time frame the attacks were happening in.

General Zaluzhnyi wrote that they had discussed the situation at the front. Ukrainian forces, he said he had told his U.S. colleague, were beating back the attacks, “thanks to the courage and skills of our warriors.”

An assessment from the Institute for the Study of War, which is based in Washington, says that infantry increase in the east did not lead to new ground for Russia.

One month later the Russian column that straggled along highways north of Kyiv withdrew, as did battalions to the east of the capital. Moscow said the re redeploying was a goodwill gesture. But it was the first of many overhauls to Russia’s battle plans, exemplified by the regular changes of command and the equally regular wringing of hands among the military bloggers.

The Ukrainian military reported Russian return fire into its positions in the south on Friday, a day after saying it had fired more than 160 times at Russian positions over the previous 24 hours.

With Russian and Ukrainian forces apparently preparing for battle in Kherson, and conflicting signals over what may be coming, the remaining residents of the city have been stocking up on food and fuel to survive combat.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the EU, and the First Day of the Ukrainian Invasion of Ukraine: Global Issues and Support for the Ukraine Crisis

An official announcement is expected on a European Union cap on natural gas prices, the latest measure to tackle an energy crisis largely spurred by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak makes his first appearance as prime minister before the Commons Liaison Committee, where the Ukraine war and other global issues are discussed. Sunak met with members of a U.K.-led European military force in Latvia on Monday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will hold virtual talks sometime this month, according to Russian news reports.

And Ukrainians and Russians are heading into their first Christmas or Hanukkah festivities since the Kremlin launched its full-on invasion of Ukraine in late February.

I Atomic Energy Agency made an agreement with the Ukrainian government to send nuclear safety and security experts to the country’s nuclear power plants.

Russia launched 36 cruise missiles across Ukraine in a single day, and Ukraine shot down 16. Most hit critical infrastructure, but Ukraine’s power grid operator said there were no electricity shortages.

A 65 person prisoner exchange freed an American from Russian-controlled territory. Suedi Murekezi told ABC News that he spent months in a prison in eastern Ukraine after being tortured in a basement.

The EU approved $19 billion in funding for Ukraine and harsher sanctions against Russia. The aid package followed pledges earlier in the week from dozens of countries and global institutions to support more than $1 billion in winter relief funds for Ukraine, helping the country with power, heat, food and medical supplies.

Ukraine’s shopping list, in order to prevail, might be divided into the now (shells, more air defenses, and longer-range missiles and rockets) and the next (tanks, Patriot batteries, and ground-launched small diameter bombs known as GLSDB with a nearly 100-mile (160-kilometer) range that have been promised by the US.)

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

War against Ukraine has left russia isolated and struggling with more tumult-ahedral-resolution-making-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-much more-tum

The biggest land war in Europe since World War II has been caused by the invasion and has forced millions of Ukrainians from their homes.

Yet the war has also fundamentally upended Russian life — rupturing a post-Soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always democratic reforms, then at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. A leading independent monitoring group says that over 20,000 people have been arrested for demonstrating against the war.

Lengthy prison sentences have been meted out to high profile opposition voices on charges of “discrediting” the Russian army by questioning its conduct or strategy.

In Russia, organizations and individuals are added to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the public.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

Russia’s already restrictive anti-gay laws have been greatly expanded by the state, as they argue that the war in Ukranian is a bigger attack on traditional values.

For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. The measures are meant to crush dissent, should the moment arise.

The new “fake news” laws that resulted in the forced shut down of major media outlets and relocations to other countries made it difficult for online investigative startup to do their jobs.

There are restrictions on internet users. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Russian users still have access to Telegram and VPNs through technical workarounds. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Russia’s First Day of Invasion: The Battle of the First Year of The Cold Cold Cold War Almost Came to an End

Many perceived government opponents left the war’s early days in fear of persecution.

Putin argued it was good riddance, part of a “self-cleansing” of Russian society from traitors and spies. Russian officials think people should lose their passports if they leave the country. Russia may be able to thrive without it’s best and brightest.

Even though the issue of Russians is sensitive to some former soviet republics, some nations that have absorbed the Russian exodus expect their economies to grow.

The banking and trading markets of Russia looked shaky during the initial days of the invasion. Hundreds of global corporate brands, such as McDonald’s and ExxonMobil, reduced, suspended or closed their Russian operations entirely.

Ultimately, President Putin is betting that when it comes to sanctions, Europe will blink first — pulling back on its support to Ukraine as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. He announced a five-month ban on oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap, a move likely to make the pain more acute in Europe.

The economic damage has put an end to Putin’s reputation for giving stability, which was a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years after the collapse of the USSR.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Russia’s Defense Ministry has daily briefings about everything on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Estimates by Western countries place the figure much higher.

The explosions along the key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea have put Russia’s defense of its own strategic infrastructure in question.

NATO’s expansion towards Russia’s borders has backfired in its primary aims, as evidenced by Russia’s invasion thus far.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have eagerly purchased discounted Russian oil, but have stopped short of full-throated support for Russia’s military campaign.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Vladimir Putin, the War of Ukraine, and the State of the Nation: What is next in the coming epoch of armed conflict?

A state of the nation address, originally scheduled for April, was repeatedly delayed and won’t happen until next year. Putin’s annual “direct line” — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright.

The annual December “big press conference” that Russian leader was allowed to handle questions from pro-Kremlin media was tabled until the year 2023.

There was no explanation for the delays given by the Kremlin. Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share after 10 months of war, according to many.

Russia is preparing for an increase in violence. Everything is being gathered, doing drills and training. I can tell you that the offensive from different directions will go on in the next two to three weeks.

“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.

The representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, who is also on national television, said there would be very active fighting in February and March.

“During the week, military representatives from the two countries will practice joint planning of the use of troops based on the prior experience of armed conflicts in recent years,” the ministry said in a statement.

The Crucial Moment for the Security and Security of Europe: The Case of the Ukraine’s MH17-Bound Aircraft Abuse

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met leaders in London, Paris and Brussels on a surprise Europe tour and repeated his call for allies to send fighter jets to his country.

On Monday, President Biden made a short visit to the Ukrainian capital in order to show his support for the people of that country. Biden met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and announced new aid as Russian forces make a new push to take control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which Russia illegally annexed last September.

The international team investigating the downing ofMalaysia Airlines flight MH17 says it is “clear” that Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the nod to give the go-ahead to supply anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels.

“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.

The senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN that only one or two small cities would be taken in the area. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”

Lloyd Austin, the US Defense Secretary, said in a meeting in Brussels that the US doesn’t see Russia massing its aircraft.

Leila Fadel looked at the human cost of Russia’s ambitions, the ripple effects beyond the borders of Ukraine, and the diplomatic and military efforts to stop the war.

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, believes that this is a critical moment. The battlefield is a factor that will decide the fate of both President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Putin.

“This is something that leads me to the question – for whom do we document all these crimes?” The head of the Center for Civil Liberties told us. “Because I’m not a historian, I’m a human rights lawyer, and we document human pain in order sooner or later to have all these Russians … brought to justice.”

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu: “It’s a war in Ukraine, but it’s not the end of the road”

Speaking to NPR’s Leila Fadel, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said his country is learning lessons from the war in Ukraine and keeping a wary eye on China.

“They have expansionist motivation. They want to expand their sphere of influence. They want to continue to expand their power. And if they are not stopped, then they will continue to march on,” Wu told us.

The Secretary of State told NPR they had avoided conflict between great powers. “This system, for all its imperfections, works. But now, it’s being challenged.”

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1157820509/ukraine-russia-war-anniversary

The First Day of the Ukrainian Invasion: When Zelensky and Maxima were rescued from the Air Field in Kyiv

They tried to flee in the first days of the war, but the family car was shelled, Natalia believes, by Russian forces. Her husband was killed, along with her 6-year-old nephew, Maxim. Vova survived the attack but was hospitalized for months with seven bullets in his body.

Danny Hajek produced and edited the audio for this story. Additional editing and production help from Carol Klinger, Denise Couture and Nina Kravinsky. Reporting and translation help were provided by Palamarenko and Ustova.

In the process the Ukrainians have inflicted stunning losses on the Russian army, and laid bare the outmoded tactics, stale leadership and brittle morale of a force more impressive on parade than on the battlefield.

By contrast, Ukrainian units have proved nimble and adaptive, harnessing drone technology, decentralized command and smart operational planning to exploit their enemy’s systemic weaknesses.

The first day of the invasion, when the Russian helicopter force seized the airfield on the outskirts of Kyiv, was one of the most impressive examples of Ukrainian agility.

This action underscored Zelensky’s determination and also his defiance of an offer from the United States to evacuate him from Kyiv, and their retort to a Russian ship on Snake Island.

Ukraine is trying to compete with a war with Soviet-era armor while absorbing and training on Western hardware. The biggest hurdle is its inability to deal with the enormous Russian arsenal of missiles and rockets.

Air defense systems have blunted Russian missile and drone barrages and discouraged its air force from conducting missions directly over Ukrainian airspace.

The Russian Army in Ukraine: The First Anniversary of the Russian Invasion and a Challenge for the Security and Security of the State of the Art

The lag between what the Ukrainians badly need and when they get it is costly and regular. The Ukrainian official told CNN that they needed help yesterday and that they would get it tomorrow. The difference between yesterday and tomorrow is the lives of our people.”

But on this first anniversary of the Russian invasion Ukraine has more pressing needs than main battle tanks. During the CNN team’s two week tour of frontline positions, they all repeated the same refrain: “We need shells.”

The Russians have learned that the best way to defeat mass is by placing logistics hubs beyond the reach of strikes.

The Washington-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies expects “the first GLSDBs won’t arrive until this fall, likely missing widely expected Russian and Ukrainian offensives that will determine the war’s future trajectory.”

F-16 fighter jets and US Army Tactical missiles are included in the never category, which is frustrating Ukrainian officials beyond the now and the next.

Some Western officials expect the Russian air force – largely missing in action so far – to become a more important component of the Russian battle plan. Lloyd Austin, US Defense Secretary, said last week that they know that Russia has a number of aircraft in its inventory.

“It’s likely more aspirational than realistic,” said a senior US military official last week, with Russian forces moving before they are ready, due to political pressure from the Kremlin.

The Russian chief of general staff was put in charge of the Ukrainian campaign at the start of the month, and that’s sparking some concern from a analyst.

The Russians have only implemented a single tactic that has been successful in this conflict, which is to lay waste to what is in front of them. We have seen this in places such as Popasna, and in Mariupol.

The stakes were raised for the Kremlin by a successful counter- attack by the Ukrainian forces.

In September, Putin warned that “in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a lie.

Tanks, fighting vehicles and other equipment will need time to be integrated into the country so they are ready to break through the Russian lines.

It is possible that the war will erupt this spring and soon turn violent, with little ground changing hands amid high casualties.

Vladimir Zelenskyy, the Defense Minister of Ukraine, and the Security Council of the United Nations, which meets in Brussels, February 7-27, 2016

Also on Wednesday, the U.N. General Assembly holds a special session on Ukraine. Russia asked for the Security Council to discuss Nord Stream. The parliament of Russia will have special meetings.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy opened the Munich Security Conference, speaking via video link to attendees including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Vice President Kamala Harris. The vice president said that Russia had committed crimes against humanity.

NATO defense ministers met in Brussels, where Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg urged a boost in ammunition to Ukraine, warning that the Kremlin is preparing for new offensives and attacks.

The Russian government is operating a systematic network of at least 40 child custody centers for thousands of Ukrainian children, a potential war crime, a Yale University team reported.

“Neither of these armies look the same today as they did at the beginning of the war.” Both took heavy losses. Both have lost a lot of their best people and best equipment,” said Kofman, an expert on the Russian military at the Center for Naval Analyses.

But analyst Dmitri Alperovitch says a key reason the Russians failed is that they didn’t send enough troops to capture and hold large parts of Ukraine.

“So if at the beginning, they didn’t have enough troops, but they had plenty of equipment, now it’s sort of the reverse, where they’re flowing more troops in, but they may no longer have enough equipment to actually execute a successful campaign,” said Alperovitch, who heads a think tank, the Silverado Policy Accelerator.

It burned through a lot of ammunition at an unsustainable rate. According to a recent U.S. Defense Department estimate, Russia lost half its tanks in the past year.

The Russian military reduced the amount of territory they had to defend because of the retreat from a large part of Ukrainian territory last fall. “That means that as a military, they have far more force density. They have a number of lines. They have reserves.”

“I think it’s going to be very difficult for the Ukrainians to make quick progress,” he said. It is hard to see the kind of lightning offensives that we saw last year if the Russian line collapses.

“Neither side, frankly, has demonstrated a great proficiency at combined arms. Neither side has air superiority, which is really important if you’re going to take these fortified positions,” Alperovitch said.

The sides are expected to launch attacks. Russian forces have been defeated around the town of Vuheldar, in the east, and it seems that one is underway.

U.S. and European aid has been much stronger than many anticipated. Just last month, Western countries pledged the biggest military assistance package yet, including, for the first time, tanks.

Ioffe thinks that at some point the Western support will start to wear off as political winds change in the U.S.

You’re seeing a kind of ‘America first’ sentiment of “Why are we in this fight?” We’re sending a blank check to Ukraine. She said that we shouldn’t be doing this.

“The main issue is not actually the will to support the Ukrainians on the Western side. It’s the capacity to do so,” he said. The production capacity of the collective West does not compare to the rate at which the Ukrainians are using munitions.