The Young Vote Here Is What We Know So-Far: What Happens When the Sanders Campaign Wins Big with Young Voters?
He said that the vibe was more like that of the Harris campaign. They definitely didn’t read the room for the entire campaign.
“They just want to live in the same country as their parents. I don’t know if that’s a social issue or an economic issue,” he said. They want a nice life and it’s slipping away.
The Trump campaign tapped a number of outside groups to run on theground organizing work, including Turning Point, which doesn’t have a youth focus.
“The goal was, of course, to lose by less,” said Kirk, whose organization focuses on getting young people engaged in conservative politics. “But in the last couple of weeks, we were whispering to each other that there might be something bigger.”
The State of the Art with Donald J. TikTok: Teen Trends and Minority Turnout in a Trump-Government Coalition
Over the summer, he was the only major Republican who joined TikTok – where he grew a follower count that now stands at 14 million, higher than Harris, who has 5 million followers. Many young men find Trump’s interviews very popular, and he did many interviews on some of the best podcasts in the country.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth Poll, noted Harris’ declines were about 15% in the Northeast, Minnesota and Illinois. (There’s still a lot of vote out in California, Washington and Oregon.) She was down in both swing states and red states.
In past years, voters under 30 have proved essential on the margins, especially for Democrats, where even minimal shifts in support can decide an election.
It was a group that Vice President Harris had hoped would be part of her winning coalition this year. Instead, she underperformed, and President-elect Trump made gains.
In blue wall states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the vice president’s margin of defeat was much worse than it was for President Biden.
Michigan had the largest change. Both Harris and Trump were equal in their share of youth support in the state.
A month before Election Day, the final youth-focused poll from the University of Chicago pointed to a potential information gap. While nearly 80% of those under 40 said they “pretty much already know” what they need to about Trump, just 57% felt that way about Harris.
There was a sense that younger people had better finances under a Trump administration, said Della Volpe, the director of polling at Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.
The Challenge of Preserving Access to Abreast Treatment: How Donald Trump and his Conservative Party Expanded the Playground of Young Men
Harris made protecting access to abortion a central part of her campaign. It’s an issue that has galvanized young voters to turn out for Democrats in recent elections.
However, in this election, voters under 30 were most likely to say the economy and jobs were top of mind, with the issue of abortion as a far second, according to early data from the Associated Press.
To Della Volpe, it’s part of a trend he has been watching for years, where a significant number of young men, especially those who have grown up with Trump, feel disconnected from the modern Democratic Party.
The Democrats are telling us in surveys that they don’t speak to them. They don’t want to be associated with it. You cannot turn around something in 30 days or 100 days. It takes years of investment to achieve this. Donald Trump made that investment. And I think much of that playing field was seeded by Democrats.”
Donald Trump won the Electoral College in a big way, and he expanded his coalition with demographic shifts. He has a chance to win the popular vote and have complete control of the levers of power in Washington, if he wins the election.
Demographic Instability in the Pre-Electoral Campaign: Why Hillary Can’t Win Neither Latinas nor Latinos Or Does She?
Despite economic improvements — unemployment is low, wages are up, inflation is down — Americans have continued to chafe at higher than pre-pandemic prices and the lack of affordable housing. Ironically, the Federal Reserve’s inflation fix — raising interest rates — meant more expensive borrowing for things like mortgages and car loans. The Fed has started to cut rates, but it will take time for Americans to feel it — right in time for a Trump presidency.
If Harris were not tied to the Biden administration, and Trump was president, things would have been different for her.
The fact that there are less white people in the country is remarkable. They have been steadily declining as a share of eligible voters, and that is not changing any time soon because of growth with Latinos and Asian Americans.
Trump won an astounding 46% of Latinos in this election. That’s the highest ever for a Republican, even higher than George W. Bush in 2004. But it was driven by men. He won a majority of Latino men by double-digits over Harris, while Harris won 60% of Latinas.
The number of women who voted increased a point from 2020. But while Harris won a majority of women — including winning moms while Trump won dads — she only won 53% of women, down from Biden’s 57%.
Harris simply couldn’t make up that ground due to the fact that even white men with college degrees narrowly voted for Trump.
It was clear that men and women have different views of women in power. There was evidence of this, for example, in the final NPR/PBS News/Marist poll before Election Day.
A majority of women said they thought that Harris would carry out her more moderate proposals in this campaign, compared to five years ago when she ran for president. A majority of the men doubted her sincerity and thought she was just trying to get votes.
In the House, Democrats were hopeful they could hold onto or flip several races they either lost or likely won’t be able ton — including in Pennsylvania, Arizona and California. It is difficult for Democrats to win majority status in a presidential year because the top candidates are more likely to win than lose.
Her declines were acute in blue states she won — for example, she was off roughly 900,000 votes in New York, 500,000 in New Jersey and Maryland, 300,000 in Massachusetts, 180,000 in Virginia.
This would happen when much of the attention has been trained on a small set of swing states. But Trump did not see those declines. All three regions he went up in.
The popular vote is going to be 50-47% for Trump. The polls got right Harris’ overall number when the 3 point shift was within polls’ margins of error. Harris was the highest average in FiveThirtyEight. DDHQ had her at 47%.
In each of the last three presidential elections, there has been an underestimation of Trump’s support as late deciders broke for him. He won the 4% of people who said they decided in the last few days by 6 points. He won 3% of the additional 3% who said that they made their decision in the last week.
The polls closed dramatically a month ago after a strong opening to the Harris campaign. The averages had Trump ahead of most of the swing states.
The losing party tries to understand where they went wrong and what they can do to win in the future.
There are no clear answers for the Democratic Party, but Democrats continue to struggle to win over working-class voters, a group that used to be solidly in their camp.
At the same time, what really matters is the right candidate in the right environment. Remember, it was only a decade ago when Republicans were wringing their hands about how to win over the growing population of Latinos in this country and issuing dire warnings of being in a permanent minority unless the party embraced a comprehensive immigration overhaul.