The Democratic Party has Lost The White House: Are We Going to Win an Election? Greenberg: The Case for a Majority, Swinging Right, Democratic Party
Greenberg: Well, I think that’s an enormous question that is difficult to answer, especially the day after the election. I believe that there will be soul searching and an autopsy for Republicans in the foreseeable future. But I think when you are a party that represents a diverse coalition — racially and regionally, in terms of education level — the notion that you can sort of turn on a dime and say, “Well, I’m just going to talk about things that men care about, and hopefully I’ll win an election,” isn’t really how it works. Democrats do not have a great message to men, that is not what I am suggesting. I’m not suggesting that all men are bad targets for the Democratic Party. The Republican advantage in terms of message is its homogeneity, and the Democrats advantage around its diversity is both that it is broadly representative, but also much more challenging for this, what I think is a minority, homogenous set of voters, even though Trump obviously won the popular vote.
Kelly: Anna Greenberg, the Democrats have lost The White House. They have lost the Senate. We don’t know yet where the House will land. Are Democrats ready now to change their message, to do the work to change who feels that they belong in the Democratic Party?
It’s not just the swing states. It was all right in places like Illinois and New Jersey. But I don’t know that that necessarily means that the country is getting more conservative, per se. I think it’s because people are really upset with the economy. It was not a one-off situation. You know, the fact that there was that much movement in states where they weren’t having advertising, they weren’t having get out the vote operations like the swing states were, indicates that there was a massive macro frustration with the Biden administration and the economy and immigration that led the country to sort of roundly reject Kamala Harris as somebody who was seen as the incumbent.
Summers: Sarah, I’ve got just a big picture question for you. The night before, we saw Trump win. He made gains in almost every demographic. You look at a map, it looks quite red. It is possible that the country is swinging right. Is that the case?
Greenberg is the person. Right. And incomes have risen, and the stock market is doing great, all those things. First, I agree with Sarah, but I think it also more broadly suggested this was a failed administration. And if you look at Joe Biden’s job approval numbers and his favorability, [it was] obviously incredibly low, and stayed incredibly low even after we saw the switch in the ticket. His numbers did not get any better. And in many ways, this was a change election. And so I think the inflationary pressures and the sense that it came from the Biden administration was part of a vote for change.
Longwell: I think that that is one of the biggest factors, we heard it all the time in the groups. And in fact, I do think it’s sometimes tough for people in big cities to understand how price sensitive these voters are. When I do focus groups with voters, and this is one of the reasons I think Democrats underperformed with young people, people just know exactly how much milk costs. They know how much it costs to have eggs. They’re sensitive to the price of gas. In the inflationary environment that we had after Communism this has led to the fall of incumbents across the globe. Incumbents are losing at a rapid rate in this post-COVID environment because inflation is something that really does end presidential elections.
“I think people were more confident, things were running smoother, could provide for our family. Eggs were $7 for a dozen, when I was there. I have never seen eggs that expensive in my life.
Kelly: Let me just park us for a moment on the economy. I would like you to listen to the information we heard from the voter in Michigan. He talked about how he sees a different economy under Trump than he is under the current one.
Longwell: Yeah. When I do focus groups with Hispanic voters they sound just like white voters who vote for Trump. There’s been very little difference. They are very strict when it comes to immigration. They too cite the economy as the number one issue, hit hard by inflation. And then there’s also certain cultural elements. They do not like Democratic Party’s identitarian politics. They tend to reject that. And they have been culturally breaking more and more for Republicans now for a while. And then the bottom really fell out this election cycle.
Summers: Anna, let me bring you in here. This is a group that has supported Democrats before. I will just note that Vice President Harris trailed President Biden‘s 2020 numbers with this group. Explain what you are looking at to us. Why is the party losing support?
According to an NBC News exit poll, Latino voters voted for Trump 25 percentage points more than they did in 2020. Latino men were fascinating. Do we have a clear idea of what the message is that is driving this group to support Trump?
Anna Greenberg: First of all, I think that, like many people, myself included, we got a little bit ahead of our skis in the early vote, where you saw actually a pretty significant gap in turnout between men and women, suggesting that there would be an even bigger gender gap than there normally is in turnout. And it turned out that it was not the case — 53% of the electorate was female, which is fairly standard, and there was a gender gap, but it wasn’t as big as many were predicting. And so Harris won 53% of women, while Trump won 55% of men, and clearly that wasn’t enough.
Kelly: So Sarah, jump in on this, and your take on the so-called gender gap, which didn’t really materialize. Does that tell us female voters were not as fired up over reproductive rights, over the issue of abortion, as everybody thought they were?
Mary Louise Kelly: I want to walk through who turned out for Trump and what issues drove them. Women are the first ones we’ll start with. Anna, early indication showed women were going to turn out in high numbers. The thinking was that it would help Harris. It didn’t. What happened?
Juana Summers and Mary Louise Kelly talk to Anna Greenberg and Sarah Longwell about four big themes.
“I’m feeling good,” Trump told Aharonov-Bashniel-Telegdi, the architect of the Trump campaign
It was clear as Tuesday progressed that former President Donald Trump was on his way to victory. And by early Wednesday morning, the result was called.
NPR predicted a historically close race in the days leading up to the election, one that could take days to call.
He said the vibe was more than anything else, referring to the Harris campaign. They didn’t read the room, for an entire campaign that was built on vibes.
They just want to live in the same country as their parents. I don’t know if that’s a social issue or an economic issue,” he said. They feel like they are slipping away from a nice life.
The Trump campaign tapped some outside groups to run its on-the- ground organizing work, including Turning Point, an organization that did not have a youth-only focus.
The goal was to lose as much as possible. We were whispering to each other about something bigger in the last few weeks.
Unpacking the 2024 Young Vote Heres What We Know So Far: Why Young Americans Swung Toward President Donald Trump
Over the summer, he was the only major Republican who joined TikTok – where he grew a follower count that now stands at 14 million, higher than Harris, who has 5 million followers. Many young men like Trump and he also did interviews on some of the most popular podcasts in the country.
It is not clear how much broke through to young Americans during the 100 day period where Harris presented an alternative option.
In past years, voters under 30 have proved essential on the margins, especially for Democrats, where even minimal shifts in support can decide an election.
It was a loss especially pronounced in the blue wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – where the vice president’s margins dropped significantly from President Biden’s commanding leads four years ago.
Michigan had the most sizable change. The number of young people in the state giving Harris and Trump positive feedback dropped from 2020 to 2020.
There was a final youth poll from the University of Chicago that suggested a potential information gap a month before Election Day. Less than half of people under 40 said they knew what they needed to about Harris.
“From the earliest focus groups I conducted this year, there was this innate sense that younger people’s personal finances were better and would be better under a Trump administration,” said Della Volpe, who serves as the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.
Source: Biden won big with young voters. This year, they swung toward Trump in a big way
What do young men think about Donald Trump, abortion and the modern Democratic Party? An analysis by Harris and Della Volpe from the Associated Press
Harris made preventing access to abortion a part of her campaign. In the last couple elections, young voters have turned out for Democrats in large numbers.
However, in this election, voters under 30 were most likely to say the economy and jobs were top of mind, with the issue of abortion as a far second, according to early data from the Associated Press.
It is part of a trend that has been observed by Della Volpe, where a lot of young men who were raised with Trump feel disconnected from the modern Democratic Party.
“They’re telling us in our surveys and our focus groups that the Democratic Party doesn’t speak to them. They’re choosing not to be affiliated with it. This is something that you can’t turn around in 30 days or 100 days,” he said. “To do this takes years of investment. Donald Trump made an investment. And I think much of that playing field was seeded by Democrats.”