The Early Season of the 2024 White House Rerun: How Biden and Trump Look in the Light of the CNN/SSRS Polls
Even as President Joe Biden and ex-President Donald Trump move toward a rerun of the most turbulent White House race in modern history, many voters are pining for a break from the past – and the present.
A new CNN/SSRS poll shows that 6 in 10 Republicans and GOP-leaning independents want their party to nominate someone other than Trump in 2024. On the other side, there is hope for a nominee other than Biden.
Of course, it’s early. And the 2022 midterms offer a still fresh reminder that in a volatile, partisan age shadowed by crises at home and abroad, logic, history, polls and pre-race predictions months ahead of time often don’t count for much.
The race is not over if voters don’t want it. Early perceptions of the contenders’ strengths are important since they shape the decisions of potential rivals and donors in the early money chase. Trump is already a declared candidate, although he could use a relaunch after a tepid start, and Biden is giving every sign he plans on running, suggesting he’ll let the country know for sure early in the new year.
The polls findings, which show that Democrats hold the Senate and Republicans the House, were explained by the November elections. Voters hoping for a return to the normality Biden had promised after generational public health and inflation challenges weren’t exactly enthused with the president, whose low approval numbers largely kept him off the campaign trail in battleground states. But they didn’t trust a GOP still largely under Trump’s sway to fix things either.
The poll also hints at one of the emerging paradoxes in the nascent 2024 race. Even though they are the most powerful figures in their parties, both Biden and Trump seem vulnerable at the start of the two-year campaign, possibly because of age, or a shifting political environment.
Conservative voters have liked the fact that DeSantis has seized on hot buttons like immigration, transgender rights, anti-covid 19 measures, and voter fraud, but he has yet to face off with Trump. The Florida governor, who won an easy reelection race last month, has not said whether he will run against Trump, who set him up in his first gubernatorial race with an endorsement. If he were to have a string of primary debate clashed with Trump, it would test his ability to take a blow, his ability to think on his feet and his willingness to counter-attack a former president who still enjoys the support of GOP base voters.
The idea of Biden being a grandfatherly figure is something many younger Democratic politicians are ready to embrace, even if it is a way of making them nostalgic for the pre- Trump era. and the news.
But the president ends the year in better political shape than Trump, and appears to have stabilized his slump. Democrats who supported him only wanted him to be their nominee 25% of the time. The figure has ballooned to 40%. And among those who want someone else, 72% say they’ve got no one particular in mind, further bolstering the advantage a sitting president usually has against a primary challenger.
Republican politics may not be at their best at the moment. How things shake out in the next few months will be critical to Trump’s prospects. On the one hand, more and more Republicans – prompted by the failure of many of the ex-president’s hand-picked candidates in the midterms – are saying it’s time to move on.
And Trump’s dinner with extremists with a record of antisemitism like White supremacist Nick Fuentes and rapper Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago is bolstering their arguments that his general election viability is damaged beyond repair. The lackluster campaign of Trump, which is supposed to make it easier for him to portray criminal probes into his conduct as persecution, is not convincing anyone so far.
The former president’s allies will be influential in the new GOP House majority. Paradoxically, the failure of Republicans to do better in November means that a thinner majority will be easier for extremists to manipulate as they seek to turn Republican control of half of the Capitol into a weapon to damage Biden and help Trump in 2024.
GOP hopefuls will see that 38% – the lowest point of three CNN polls on the topic this year – as an opening for an anti-Trump candidate. But another big field could splinter opposition to the ex-president among untested potential foes.
Democratic Reply to the State of the Union: Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Gov. of Arkansas, When Donald Trump Met President Barack Obama
Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Gov. of Arkansas, responded harshly to the State of the Union address by the President, drawing a contrast with Vice President Biden, who gave a more measured response.
Sanders called Biden “unfit to serve as commander in chief,” said his “weakness puts our nation and the world at risk” and described the political landscape in dire terms. “The dividing line in America is no longer between right or left. The choice is between normal or crazy,” she said.
After the president mentioned his priorities and agenda to the nation in his speech to the country, it gave the senator a major national platform to counter Biden.
When Donald Trump was President, the White House press secretary’s name was known nationally, as she was a steadfast defender of his policies and often clashed with national reporters.
She was the first woman to ever be elected governor of Arkansas. Her father, Republican Mike Huckabee, served as governor of the state from 1996 to 2007.
This year’s State of the Union took place with Republicans newly in control of the House, a position of power the GOP is using to launch congressional oversight investigations aimed at the Biden administration.
The State of the Union response will be given by the Republican congressional leaders McCarthy and McConnell.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/republican-response-sarah-huckabee-sanders-biden-sotu/index.html
The 2018 Christmas Event in Western Iraq, When Donald J. Biden and the World War II, Exploded: A Story from the First Christmas with the President
“During my two and a half years at the White House, I traveled on every foreign trip with the president,” she said, saying that she “will never forget” a trip that took place on December 25, 2018.
The war-torn part of western Iraq was the site of a scene when hundreds of troops who were in the fight against Isis had gathered in a dining hall to celebrate Christmas.
She said that when the first lady and president walked into the room, the room erupted. The men and women of every race, religion, region, and party started chanting the same slogan over and over again, “USA, USA, USA.”
A number of executive orders were signed by the governor after he took office, including one barring the use of the term “Latinx” in official state documents and another banning critical race theory from being taught in schools.
McConnell said in a statement, “Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders is the youngest Governor in the nation and a powerful advocate for the popular, commonsense conservative principles that will put our country back on a better course.”
While those did not generate much applause from Republicans, Mr. Biden nonetheless put forward the latest elements of what aides call his “unity agenda,” a menu of policy proposals that presumably could attract bipartisan support. Among them were initiatives to tackle the opioid epidemic, enhance cancer research and treatment, expand access to mental health services, and improve benefits for veterans.
Mr. Biden continued to fight. Even when he was promoting bipartisanship, he relished jabbing Republicans. At one point, he noted that many Republicans voted against an infrastructure package yet still asked for money from it for their districts.
Joe Biden ‘Already’: The Age of the Republican Party and the Birth of a New Generation of Leadership in the United States
Marty Walsh, the labor secretary who was chosen to remain away from the Capitol in case of a catastrophe, was not present at the chamber.
In his speech, Mr. Biden called on Congress to extend a new $35 price cap on insulin for Medicare beneficiaries to all Americans; to make premium savings on Affordable Care Act health plans permanent; to impose a minimum tax on billionaires; and to quadruple the tax on corporate stock buybacks.
As important as his program may be, the president also faced pressure to ensure a smooth performance in front of what was likely to be his largest television audience of the year. He would ask voters to keep him in office until he is 86 if he wanted to be re-elected. Many Democrats are eager to see a younger generation take charge of the party and are concerned about his age.
Ms. Sanders directly went after him over his age. I am 40 years old and the youngest governor in the country. She said that he is the oldest president in American history. She added: “It is time for a new generation of Republican leadership,” without saying whether that meant her former boss, Mr. Trump, who is 76, should be nominated for a third time.
President Joe Biden is set to set a new record as the oldest president in US history when he arrives at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center for his annual physical on Thursday.
The president can make a lot of mistakes when he is tired and that makes it important to balance his schedule.
It also underscored the importance of a State of the Union address advisers viewed as Biden at his best, from cadence and delivery to his off-script sparring with Republicans in the House chamber. In front of tens of millions of people, the speech was a prime time moment to lay out his accomplishments and vision for the country.
His age shouldn’t be viewed as a barrier to his efforts to lead the country down that path.
The effect was immediate and one group was watching: quietly anxious Democratic officials. It was a night that put to rest some of the concerns about the leader and made a number of people feel better about themselves.
That Biden repeatedly went back to the phrase “finish the job” roughly a dozen times during the speech “wasn’t exactly subtle,” one of those Democrats said.
Though advisers say Biden would keep to the standard of not starting daily campaigning for at least a year, just as President Barack Obama did in 2011, they’re already looking for low impact ways to maximize keeping him in the public eye. To some extent it would track and build on the oft-criticized formula deployed in the lead up to the midterms, where Biden eschewed a road warrior, rally heavy strategy and tailored and targeted events – and smaller crowds – instead.
“Funny that we didn’t hear much from the critics about that strategy after November 8,” one adviser said sarcastically of the Democrats’ precedent-busting performance on Election Day last year.
Landrieu: How the mayors met to discuss his experience with the White House and the digital aspects of election campaigning in South Korea and the U.S.
Among the possible strategies are having him keep up the kind of news-making appearances he’s been doing in and around Washington and preparing for what they’re hoping will be the most extensive digital effort of a presidential campaign ever.
Top surrogates deployed at a regular clip would include a roster populated by a younger generation of politicians, people familiar with the matter say, even as one pointed out that given Biden’s age, that’s to some degree an inevitability.
A senior Biden adviser said it was part of who he is, as much a part as his legislative accomplishments in the last two years, and his connection with people.
An adviser for Biden said a theory of the case his team thinks will be more beneficial to them than any concerns the public may have.
People will end the day asking themselves who is on their side. The adviser said something. Who is fighting for me? Who is making a big difference in my life?
That is how Landrieu convinced the mayors to attend a meeting at the hotel a few blocks from the White House.
The mayors looked around uncomfortably, according to two people in the room. They had thought about Biden’s age and how he could not run from back home. They were startled to hear it said out loud by a White House official.
Landrieu said there are a lot more important numbers out there than the Covid-19 shots.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/joe-biden-age-question/index.html
Underestimating Biden: His age before Hillary Clinton beats them in 2020 versus the senile he built for the best legislative record in modern history
Still, voters bring Biden’s age up constantly in focus groups. One person who observed several focus group sessions during the campaign last year said that he thought he had been rendered brain dead.
More than a dozen Democratic operatives and officials told CNN they’re worried that Donald Trump – himself a septuagenarian who is facing calls for new leadership from younger politicians in his party – or another much younger Republican who may emerge as the nominee could make a show of seeming more energetic just by keeping a pace of two or three events each day. A number of prominent figures in the Democratic Party are privately questioning the president’s ability to keep up an active travel schedule.
Some ambitious Democrats have already prepared little contingency plans in case Biden reverses his stance and decides against running for reelection, according to people familiar with the efforts. Those plans span everything from thinking through top donors to eyeing potential core campaign staff, should Biden reassess his ability to serve another four years or has an unexpected health problem, sparking a short fuse primary.
And they say these doubts are just the latest way of underestimating the president, pointing out that age concerns also dogged his 2020 campaign – even though some of those same advisers confided to others at the time that they believed his age was his biggest liability when he was four years younger.
Other Democratic operatives preparing for a campaign worry about letting suspicions fester, comparing them to the conspiracies about hidden conditions that trailed Hillary Clinton throughout 2016.
The president’s opponents are talking about it. The media coverage of the classified documents in Biden’s former office and garage made him out to be senile or at the center of a conspiracy theory about a controversy manufactured by Democrats to ease him into it.
“They attacked him over age before he beat them in 2020. They attacked him over age as he built the best legislative record in modern history,” said White House spokesman Andrew Bates. “They did the same before he beat them 2022. I don’t think they’re doing anything. The trend is not good for them. Maybe they forgot?”
Biden advisers argue that most of the people making those kinds of comments are partisan Republicans, and that this is just another instance of a hyperpolarization in politics. Biden has a history of physical and mental health issues but experts say he has no issues at all.
Sure, there has been a noticeably increased stiffness to his walk since he’s been in office, aides say, so much so that the White House physician, brought in a team to assess Biden’s gait during his last physical in 2021. He had normal wear and tear on his spine.
They acknowledge there are days where his energy levels at public events can appear less vigorous. But they are unequivocal about their view that Biden wouldn’t green light another run if he didn’t think he could do it – and they wouldn’t support one either.
Those words, and an overall emphasis on Biden as an embodiment of reassuring routine and normalcy, pop up repeatedly among aides who are starting to look ahead.
The end of the 2020 primary campaign, when Biden was endorsed by Harris, Booker and Michigan Gov., was a key moment that was changed to depict him as a bridge to the next generation.
At the time, many people assumed that it meant a four-year bridge, an implicit one-term promise that acknowledged his age. Advisers point out he’d previously rejected a one-term pledge.
Biden advisers also argue that the president’s persona as an elder statesman could help Democrats hold onto voters who see the party as changing too quickly and veering too far left.
Although there are clear moments when Biden is visibly slower physically than he was, dozens of aides, administration officials and members of Congress who’ve actually spent time with him have relayed stories to CNN about how thorough and demanding he is in meeting after meeting.
“There’s a confidence that comes from knowing what you’re doing,” Ted Kaufman, one of Biden’s closest friends and advisers since his first campaign, told CNN late last year.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/joe-biden-age-question/index.html
When a Republican Senat Leader Learned to Tell Them He Had a Disaster, and When he Decided to Go Ahead
He gets stuck on, or mispronounces, names on his teleprompter, but it’s more connected to a convergence of wanting to get the name correct while avoiding a block associated with the childhood stutter he worked diligently to overcome.
They say he’s the one constantly adding to his schedule, pushing for photo lines with local politicians and extra time to greet crowds after his events, or making meetings run over by peppering policy aides with questions.
“The energy is higher now than maybe when I first met him, and I really believe that that’s inspired by the work,” said Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who as a Delaware Democrat has known and worked with Biden much of her life.
There is perhaps no better window into the public perception versus private reality advisers try to convey than a 15-hour stretch in Bali, Indonesia, at the Group of 20 meeting last November.
Aides said Biden didn’t skip the gala because he was tired, though they never explained further. The truth is that he wanted to be more focused on preparing for his granddaughter’s wedding that weekend at the White House, rather than have more generic conversations with counterparts over another meal. He was ready, however, when a crisis moment arrived, they said. And he drove the response.
The Secretary of State and national security adviser Jake Sullivan sat across from him just a few hours later, trying to head off an international crisis.
A phone call between Biden and Polish President Lech Kaczynski was made after the Polish president found out that a missile had landed in Polish territory and killed two people.
There were calls with the NATO secretary general and constant communication with his military leadership. An emergency call was made with NATO and G7 leaders. Biden said that was not enough.
Biden walked the 10 leaders to the Grand Hyatt after he heard that the missile might not have been from Russia. Fears of dramatic escalation quickly dissipated. France’s president and other leaders were told stories from his Senate days by Biden thirty minutes later.
They quickly shoot down what they see as sneering insinuations, like when reporters ask why the president has a light public schedule on the days back from overseas trips – though that has been standard practice for multiple recent presidents, including Obama. Even though Biden frequently appeared at more than a few events throughout the fall, they insist that his schedule in the mid-month proves he can be on the road.
Aides joke that his reaction to being mentioned of his age is to jog in or out of public events. Friends say he has taken to making sarcastic references to his age even though he is proud of all he has been able to accomplish.
Or there was his move three weeks ago in the State Dining Room, when he pretended to wobble as he got back up from taking a knee for a photo with the NBA champion Golden State Warriors, taking a moment to make fun of the crowd’s shock.
“I wanted to get up there and actually give him an arm and help him up, but I didn’t know if I’d get in trouble for that, so I just kinda stood back,” star forward Draymond Green told CNN afterward. “To see him in that physical condition at his age, to get up and down like that, was absolutely incredible.”
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/16/politics/joe-biden-age-question/index.html
The Last Days of the First Donald Trump White House: A View Through the Lens of a Mayor’s Smile and a President’s Redux
A visit by the president last month left him with the impression that Biden has more left in the tank, according to the Cincinnati mayor.
Pureval observed a man laughing hard when the mayor used a famous Biden interjection to describe how bipartisan infrastructure money was supporting the rebuilding of the local Brent Spence Bridge.
The crowd had fist bumps at the barbecue spot that they went to after. There was the way the president immediately flashed the fraternity hand sign when a young black man mentioned that he was a member of Phi Beta Sigma.
I didn’t think about age when you were with him. What was on my mind was the president provided the single biggest grant in our nation’s history to our bridge,” Pureval said.
Donald Trump will also, if he wins and serves out a second term, turn 82, and you could view the final days of the first Trump White House through this prism. Nearly a quarter of the Congress was over 70 last year, Insider found, up from 8 percent in 2002. Senator Charles Grassley, a Republican and Iowa’s senior senator, won re-election at age 89 last fall. Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi are both in their 80’s, and until the recent hockey line change in House leadership, much of the Democratic congressional leadership was over 70. The Treasury secretary is older than 76. In the past decade, the balance of the Supreme Court has changed due to the death of two justices.