Democrat Candidates in 2020: The Cleveland Guardians, Sen. Matt Dolan, and Sen. Chuck Schumer (R-Minnesota)
“Some of the primary noise on their side suggests they haven’t learned too much yet,” said J.B. Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC, a group closely associated with Senator Chuck Schumer. “There’s plenty of things for them to be nervous about.”
Beyond that, Democrats are defending Senate seats in a handful of pivotal presidential battlegrounds – Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All are expected to be fiercely contested, with Arizona offering the potential for an unpredictable three-way race if Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema seeks reelection. Given the overlay of the presidential race, these contests are most likely to see outsize attention with high-profile campaign visits, making them more connected to the national crosscurrents.
Just as they did in the 2022 race for the state’s other Senate seat, Republicans could face a crowded field of candidates. State Sen. Matt Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, is running again after placing third in the GOP Senate primary last year. Other potential candidates include Attorney General Dave Yost, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and Rep.Warren Davidson, who have dropped out of a Senate race.
The Cleveland Guardians is owned by the family of Dolan, who is exploring the limits of acceptable criticism of Trump. “What we witnessed nationally should convince us the country is ready for substantive candidates, not personalities and election deniers,” he wrote in a recent email to Republican county chairs in Ohio. He would back Trump if he were the nominee.
Where the Senate Map Stands at the Start of the 2020 Seiberg Cycle: West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a former state legislator, and Republican Gov. Jim Justice
West Virginia senator Joe Manchin has been blocking some of Biden’s agenda items for the past two years in the Senate. He hasn’t stated if he will seek a third term or not, leaving Democrats in suspense.
Manchin, a former governor and state legislator who has served in the Senate since 2010, insists he’s not concerned about the prospects that the GOP governor, Jim Justice, is strongly considering a run against him, though Justice would have to escape a difficult primary against Rep. Alex Mooney and potentially the state’s attorney general, Patrick Morrisey, who may run as well. He acknowledged that Justice would be a tough opponent, but he still believed he could pull off a victory.
This cycle, 23 of the 34 seats are up for grabs and the party must defend them. That means Republicans will need a net gain of just one or two seats in the Senate to take it back.
Beyond O’Rourke’s narrow loss, Texas has shown signs of moving toward Democrats, with Trump winning the state by less than 6 points in 2020 – the narrowest margin for the GOP since 1996. Texas is still a red state, as seen by Gov. Greg Abbott’s reelection victory last fall.
There are still more than 20 months to go until Election Day 2024, with many twists and turns ahead. But based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed, here is where the Senate map stands at the start of the cycle.
The Democratic Party in Arizona: Lessons learned from Sarah, Matt Rosendale, and Daniele Sinema during a 2018 White House run
Aside from the eventual nominees, the overall environment and mood of the country will also help shape contests up and down the ballot as well as the central campaign issues. The state of the US economy is important to voters. There are signs that culture issues, including parental rights, are poised to drive the debate within GOP primaries and could emerge as general election flashpoints.
Senate Republicans were unable to exploit a favorable environment for them in the 2020 election because of flawed candidates, who were elevated by Trump. Already this year, National Republican Senatorial Committee chair Steve Daines and other GOP leaders have sent signals that the committee could get involved in primaries if it means avoiding nominees who could cost the party in the general election.
But the GOP is eager to take another shot at unseating the three-term incumbent in a state that Trump carried by more than 16 points in 2020. Much of the talk about potential GOP challengers has focused on the state’s two House members, Matt Rosendale and Ryan Zinke. Tester beat Rosendale by more than 3 points in 2018, when the Democrat hammered his GOP rival over his Maryland roots. Zinke, a former Interior secretary under Trump, won a newly created House seat in November by 3 points, underperforming Trump’s 7-point spread in a district Montana gained in reapportionment following the 2020 census.
The $3.4 million in Brown’s campaign funds he enters the cycle with will likely be used to battle the governor of Ohio in what could be a contentious and expensive battle.
As she’s grown more alienated from her former party, Sinema has grown closer to Republicans, including one – Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – who told CNN she would endorse the senator if she ran again.
GOP Senate bids also include election deniers, such as failed 2020 nominees and last fall’s governor, who said her election was stolen. Lake met with NRSC officials earlier this month, CNN reported, but she’s also holding events in Iowa, which would suggest interest in a different federal office. If there’s been a lesson for the Arizona GOP over the last few years here, it’s that catering to the more extreme Trump base works well in the state’s late-summer primary but alienates voters in the general election. Freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani, seen as a potential candidate, was tapped to deliver the GOP rebuttal in Spanish to Biden’s State of the Union address.
First elected to the House in 2016 before running successfully for the Senate two years later, Rosen began 2023 with more than $4.4 million in the bank, which should give her a strong fundraising head start on would-be challengers. Democrats lost the governor’s mansion and several down-ballot offices, but they still held onto several senatorial offices, even though Republicans came close to knocking them off last year.
Republicans Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general who lost to Cortez Masto last fall, and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown, an Army veteran who lost to Laxalt in the 2022 Senate primary, could run again.
Few states have such politically divergent senators as Wisconsin, where progressive Democrat Tammy Baldwin is up for a third term in 2024 and conservative Republican Ron Johnson won reelection last fall by 1 point. Baldwin, the first out LGBTQ member of the Senate, won reelection in her re-election campaign by a 11 point margin, a testament to the strength of the Democrats.
Schumer and his top associates are trying to stop others from retiring, in order to prevent the Republicans from taking control of the chamber after the 2020 elections. The exception is California, where the 89-year-old Dianne Feinstein announced her retirement this week, something widely expected, as Democrats are expected to keep the seat in their control in the blue state.
The likelihood of a strong Democratic recruit running in the Wolverine State moves this contest slightly lower on the list of seats most likely to flip, even though an open seat would typically cost Democrats more money and be harder to defend. Potential Republican candidates include John James, who lost both Senate races in the same year. The vote to impeach Trump after the January 6 insurrection could make it more difficult for him to win a GOP primary.
Sen. Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat, is weighing health considerations after treatment for prostate cancer. According to the Senator, he will make a decision at the appropriate time regarding a fourth Senate term in Vermont.
The Senate race and governor’s race in Pennsylvania were both won by Trump-backed nominees. Former hedge fund executive Dave McCormick – who tried to embrace Trump after moving back to the state but ultimately lost out on his endorsement and the 2022 Senate nomination – could be an attractive challenger for the GOP because of his personal wealth.
There is a sharp dropoff in competitiveness once you get past the top eight races on our list. Florida has shifted away from being a battleground state to being a Republican state. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio both scored commanding reelection victories last year. Democrat Val Demings was a high-level recruit, who raised money, but lost to Republican Marcoval by 16 points.
GOP Sen. Rick Scott, a former governor of Florida, has a history of narrow general election victories. And as Biden did last week during his post-State of the Union stop in Tampa, Democrats are sure to seize on the agenda Scott proposed last year during his tenure as head of the NRSC, which he later revised after it sparked blowback from some Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
But with Democrats defending so much turf this cycle, it’s hard to see the party investing heavily in trying to flip a Senate seat in Florida during a presidential year, especially given the vast personal resources Scott can plow into his campaign. Among the names being floated as potential Democratic challengers is former Rep. Stephanie Murphy, a moderate who represented an Orlando-area district until earlier this year.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won a tight race against Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke but still came up 2 points short. Cruz is thought to be a potential presidential candidate in 2024, but he seems to be more focused on trying to win a third term.
Sen. Joe Manchin, torn over whether to run for reelection, says he’s “given everything I possibly can” over four decades of holding public office. Sen. Jon Tester is close to making his final decision on a 2024 bid and concedes there’s a risk of his seat flipping next year.
Romney said he will make a decision on running for a second term by mid-April and is ready to take on his party’s right wing if he does.
Romney said that people understand that every action has consequences, and they accept the consequences for the actions that they think are right. He then added bullishly: “If I run, I’ll win.”
Democrat Embarrassing the 2024 Landscape: What are the most pressing concerns for the Senate? The challenge of defending the conservative Democrat in West Virginia
As the 2024 landscape begins to take shape, the senators decisions about their political futures willdramatically alter the map and hold major ramifications for the makeup of the institution itself.
For Democrats, the concern is the most acute. Their slim 51-49 majority is not easy to maintain, with 23 seats to defend compared to 11 for the GOP.
“I’m doing everything I can to help Manchin in West Virginia,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told CNN when asked if he were concerned that the conservative Democrat might hang it up, referring to legislative actions.
According to several Democrats who are involved in planning for the Senate races, they think Tester and Casey will run and that he’s doing well after his surgery. Manchin has them more on edge, and they anticipate that’s how they’ll remain for almost a year: the West Virginia filing deadline isn’t until next January.
“Those are states that are very Republican,” Peters told CNN, referring to Montana and West Virginia. I know they can win again, but the strongest candidates are in those states. It’d be more difficult without them running.”
Democrats don’t have any backup plans in Montana or West Virginia. They have been encouraged by the polls being released publicly by Republican groups showing their numbers have been better than expected, and that may be encouraging for the incumbents.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/politics/senate-2024-map-retirements/index.html
What Is Happening to a Candidate in the Senate That Lost to Tester in the Past, and What I Can Do About It
“That’s not my factor,” Manchin said in the interview. “I’m not weighing that because of my, what it might do to the numbers as far as up here. I have been at this for a long time. This term being up, there’ll be 42 years I’ve been in public service so I’ve given everything I possibly can.”
He said he believes that it is time for him to take the time to think over what he should do.
When asked about a candidate who lost to Tester in the past, Daines wasn’t quite sure. He said “it’s early” since candidates have yet to declare and that the field will get “sorted out,” contending the race is “winnable.”
Senate GOP Leader McConnell is determined not to allow that to happen again after lastcycles GOP debacle where several Donald Trump candidates petered out during the general election and effectively cost them the majority.
“I just think we need to focus on candidates who can win in the general election,” said Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican from Texas and close McConnell ally. We had some great candidates, but they weren’t able to get the job done. You got to have somebody who can have a broader appeal than just the base. That was one of the most important lessons of this last cycle.”
Lake, the Trump-aligned Republican who lost one of the nation’s premier governor’s races last fall, recently met with officials at NRSC headquarters – even though many Republicans are nervous about her potential candidacy and one GOP strategist called the potential of a Lake Senate run “disastrous.”
Daines said he wanted to see a candidate who could win a primary and then a general election.
The second-ranking Republican in the Senate said that he had told all of the potential candidates to talk about the future instead of the past. If you are building your campaign around the idea of a stolen election, it is not a winning strategy. We have seen that before. So if she does decide to do it again, I think she’s gonna have to talk about the things that are on the hearts and minds of American people.”
But some Democrats are angry at their leaders for refusing to say if they’ll back their nominee, especially backers of Rep. Ruben Gallego, the party’s leading candidate in the race.
While some Democrats are nervous that Gallego and Sinema would split the vote and give Republicans a victory, Gallego dismisses the possibility and says only a “strong Democrat” can win.
She said that she supports both Manchin and Sen. Sinema. She is able to take on hard things, and I will be supporting her too.
Changing the makeup of the Democratic Party could bring more diversity and younger members into the fold in safe seats such as Maryland and Delaware.
Ted Cruz, who is running for a third Senate term, is being eyed by Democrats as a potential target to try to topple in the red state.
Republican recruitment efforts in the state are also up in the air, with a push for newly elected Rep. John James, who has lost two previous bids for the Senate. If he passes, GOP leaders believe other contenders will emerge, potentially former Rep. Peter Meijer and even some current members of the House delegation or local officials.
Some potential Democratic candidates have decided not to run, but other players in the state think Slotkin’s strength is questionable and are talking about an alternative.
Given how much Democrats in the state rely on high turnout in heavily African-American Detroit, finding a candidate who could run strong there has been a major topic in those discussions. A person familiar with Garlin Gilchrist’s thinking said the lieutenant governor was very seriously thinking about a run and was expected to make a decision over the next month.
Several democrats in Michigan tell CNN that they have been surprised by outreach they are getting from HillHarper, who owned a coffee shop in Detroit and was Barack Obama’s law school roommate. Harper did not return a request for comment.
“What I’m saying to folks is that I want somebody that is strong, effective, who can raise money, who can win,” Stabenow said. I am talking to everyone.