The French Deputy Prime Minister Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva insisted that Europe had a strong diplomatic clout
Editor’s Note: Frida Ghitis, a former CNN producer and correspondent, is a world affairs columnist. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. CNN has more opinion on it.
A few days after French President Emmanuel Macron stunned and angered France’s allies by handing Chinese leader Xi Jinping an unnecessary and potentially important victory, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva started his own trip to Beijing — another in a series of exchanges that shows China’s increasing global diplomatic clout.
The country paints itself as champion of global peace despite launches of menacing military maneuvers. In his call for peace in Ukraine, the Chinese leader presents a vague, mostly meaningless proposal. But he has done nothing to actually help end the war, or even do as little as condemn Russia’s onslaught.
China brokered reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which occurred earlier this month. According to a report, it is holding advanced talks with Russia and Iran to give them the materials they need for their missile program. That would be a serious violation of the United Nations sanctions and a way for Russia to replenish their weapons used to bomb Ukraine.
China has become much more assertive on the global stage. It has become a crucial commercial partner for so many countries because it is willing to use that power to achieve its objectives, making it a fierce strategic player.
Before Lula landed Wednesday, French diplomats were busy trying to reassure European allies who had moved from disbelief to fury about statements that Macron had made during his trip; statements that at times seemed to align him closer to China than to the Western alliance on vital matters, at precisely the wrong time.
In the end, Macron’s ill-timed, poorly articulated call for a stronger Europe managed to remind Europeans that they are strongest as an integral part of NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance, even if that alliance is dominated by the United States.
On Taiwan, he suggested that it’s simply not Europe’s problem, saying Europe faces the risk of getting “caught up in crises that are not ours,” seeming to open a wider berth for Beijing’s stated intention to take over the island.
The timing couldn’t be worse. After the president left, China launched a military operation around Taiwan in a simulation of an attack. The visit by Taiwan’s President, Tsai Ing-wen, and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy caused China to retaliate.
France’s European allies distanced themselves from Macron’s stance. Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Moawiecki said “the alliance with the United States is the absolute foundation of our security.” A leading adviser to Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, Marcin Przydacz said Europe needs “more America,” noting acidly that, “the United States is more of a guarantee of safety in Europe than France.”
The official US government response was low-key, but Sen. Marco Rubio wondered in a twitter video if Macron was speaking for Europe. He said the US might be able to tell Europe that they should handle Ukraine.
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Ultimately, Macron came across as naïve, or perhaps successfully seduced by China’s treatment — a red carpet welcome followed by a staged love-fest with gushing university students.
Nobody wants a war with China, but the French president’s flippant comments only make one more likely by seeming to give China more reason to believe it would not face a unified Western response if it attacks.
It’s more than an academic question: European countries feel threatened by an aggressive Russia; many are convinced that victory over Ukraine would lead Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand his aim of reconstituting the old Soviet Union by conquering former members, including independent countries in the European Union.
In 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic erupted, Australia’s then-Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent investigation of its origin. China responded with vindictive fury, imposing crushing tariffs on Australian wine, crippling the industry, and thus warning the country about its future behavior.
On Friday, that list grew to include Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is expected to sign a host of bilateral deals with Xi – and, like several of the leaders before him, arrives with hopes of making progress toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
China has refused to condemn the Russian invasion, even though there are other countries that can do so, and this revolving door of visiting leaders gives the Chinese president an opportunity to push back against perceived threats.
Three years of scaled back diplomacy due to China’s strict Covid-19 controls coupled with economic challenges has left President Xi under pressure to act.
“(Chinese leaders) believe it’s time now for China to make its strategic plans,” said Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
Beijing is trying to strengthen its relationship with European countries as well as improve it over time in order to weaken American alliances.
Xi told Singapore’s Lee Hsien loong that Asian countries should reject the “Cold War mentality and bloc confrontation,” while he urged Malaysia to fight back against the Cold War mentality.
The Prime Minister of Spain warned that the EU needs to uphold strategic independence for the sake of China-EU relations, according to the Chinese side.
The state dinner between the two leaders was held in Guangzhou after a day of formal talks in Beijing, during which the president sipped tea and listened to traditional Chinese music.
The leftist Brazilian leader, who ushered in a boom in China-Brazil trade ties during his first stint in power some two decades ago, is traveling with a delegation of business leaders, state governors, congressmen and ministers, and expected to close a raft of bilateral deals from agriculture and livestock to technology.
Luiza Duarte, a research fellow at the American University’s Center for Latin American and Latino Studies in Washington, said that “Lula will look out for himself and his country, openness to reforms, and the desire to avoid automatic alignment with the US.”
“Lula’s expected warm welcome in Beijing ‘raises comparison with his frustrating less than 24 hour visit to Washington'”, she said.
Beijing has a chance to position itself as a more appealing alternative to bilateral cooperation due to the lack of deliverables from that meeting.
Some leaders – like Macron – have viewed Xi, a close friend and diplomatic partner of Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a potential ally that could help push Putin toward peace.
They have a relationship that is raising concern, with US officials earlier this year warning that China might provide the Kremlin with lethal aid.
Brazil, in advance of Lula’s trip, has offered another view: creating – as the country’s foreign minister put it – “a group of mediator countries” including China.
But how Beijing navigates these initiatives, observers say, comes down to a bottom line that’s integrally related to Xi’s global ambitions and world view.
The only major power that is in agreement with China on how the world should look and how political issues should be handled is Russia. Russia is indispensable for China, he said.
That point was highlighted in another moment on Xi’s recent diplomatic agenda: his travel to Moscow in March for his own state visit – the first since he stepped into a third presidential term that same month.
And while China’s diplomacy – and deals – in the past week may not have been heavily impacted by the optics of that relationship, analysts say how Beijing handles the conflict will continue to affect views on China globally.
The National University of Singapore professor said that perception of Chinese influence over Putin has given him leverage that would otherwise not have been available.
“Ultimately, the test will come down to whether Xi is actually able to exert any real influence on Putin, especially in terms of ceasing the war,” he said.