Replacing the partisanship: Where do we stand? Where are we going? When do we live in the moment? What can we do about it?
To be clear, Sinema has always been a thorn in the Democrats side during her time in Congress. Over the last two years, Democrats have had to almost always make sure that any nominee had Sinemas support to pass. That’s the math when you have only 50 Senate seats in a 100-seat chamber. A lot of bills and nominations were never voted on without Sinema and Manchin’s backing.
I have never fit neatly in a party box. I have never really tried. I don’t want to,” she added. “Removing myself from the partisan structure – not only is it true to who I am and how I operate, I also think it’ll provide a place of belonging for many folks across the state and the country, who also are tired of the partisanship.”
In an interview with Politico, Sinema added, “I don’t anticipate that anything will change relative to the Senate structure.” And there’s good reason to believe her. She backed the positions of President Joe Biden more than any other person during his first two years in office.
Sinema said she didn’t make a decision after the win, but that she wouldn’t caucus with Republicans and that she would keep her Senate committee assignments through Democrats.
People who lose when politicians are more focused on denying the opposition party a victory than on improving Americanss lives are everyday Americans, wrote Sinema.
The incentive structure for Sinema is very different and this would make sense. Ahead of a 2024 reelection campaign, she no longer has to worry about winning a Democratic primary. Sinema has to worry about building a coalition of Democrats, independents and Republicans. That is far more difficult to do if you’re seen as too liberal.
“I’m just not worried about folks who may not like this approach,” Sinema said. I am concerned about continuing to do what is right for my state. And there are folks who certainly don’t like my approach, we hear about it a lot. The proof is in the pudding.
Over the past two years, liberal Democrats have been angered by the way Sinema and Manchin stand in the way of President Joe Biden’s agenda.
While Sinema was unaware that Manchin and Schumer had brokered a deal on major health care and energy legislation, she eventually supported the smaller spending package Biden signed into law before the election.
A Legacy for Arizona: Lorentzian Senator Sarah Sinema and the Biden-Binding Committee on Senate Minority Rights
She told CNN she has been honoured to lead historic efforts from infrastructure, to gun violence prevention, to protecting religious liberty and helping LGBT families feel secure. The list is long. The results speak for themselves. It is okay if some people don’t feel comfortable with that approach.
Democrats were gleeful that Warnock’s victory appeared to give them a 51st vote after two years of a 50-50 split in the US Senate. A shadow of uncertainty is cast by Sinema’s declaration.
When asked if she would support Joe Biden for president in four years, she refused to answer and also said that she did not care if a third party emerged in the US.
Over the last two years, she and fellow moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Machin of West Virginia have been criticized as standing in the way of President Biden’s agenda by regularly holding up or objecting to parts of key legislation, as was the case with Democrats’ key budget package.
She admitted in the op-ed that her approach is rare in Washington and has angered both Republicans and Democrats. “It is also an approach that has delivered lasting results for Arizona.”
Legislation related to critical infrastructure, economic competitiveness, water issues, veterans’ benefits and marriage access for same sex couples, were just some of the issues that Sinema worked with colleagues on both sides of the aisle to pass.
She pointed to several areas in which her stance and priorities remained steadfast, for example: that a woman’s health care decision should be between her, her doctor and her family, as well as that she remains steadfast in her efforts to secure the southern border.
“If anyone previously supported me because they believed, contrary to my promise, that I would be a blindly loyal vote for a partisan agenda – or for those who believe our state should be represented by partisans who push divisive, negative politics, regardless of the impact on our state – then there are sure to be others vying for your support,” she added.
The Axe Files: Sen. Michelle Sinema Tells the Senate Democrats She’s Leavening a Republican-Governing Party
The Axe Files was hosted by a senior CNN political commentator and chief strategist for the 2008 and 2012 Barack Obama presidential campaigns. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.
The Arizona senator knows how to get people to pay attention, whether she’s wearing colorful and flamboyant clothes or driving a lot of her Democratic colleagues nuts.
She did that again Friday, when she told the Senate Democrats that she was leaving the party and registration as an independent.
As it is, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer relies on the votes of two other senators who caucus with Democrats but are technically independents – Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an icon of the progressive left, and Angus King, a moderate from Maine. Sinema now joins their ranks.
So in keeping with her habit of standing out by standing apart, Sinema’s declaration seems meant more as a statement about hyperpartisanship than an institution-shifting change of position.
But laudable as those compromises were, there are few political incentives for bipartisanship in today’s highly polarized party politics, in which the nominating processes are dominated by more ideologically-driven voters.
Arizona has a history of electing mavericks in the image of the late Republican Sen. John McCain. But Sinema’s bold self-presentation and quirky political style may undercut the value of her independence. A small majority of independent votes gave her poor ratings in the September poll.
When she theatrically turned a thumbs-down on a Senate vote in March 2021 to increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour, it was the last straw for her party’s base. When she skipped votes to participate in Ironman triathlons or spent weeks as an intern at a Sonoma County winery, it served only to cement her reputation among progressives that she had removed herself from the concerns of working-class Arizonans.
In the fall of 2021, activists from LUCHA, one of the groups that worked to elect Ms. Sinema, confronted her at Arizona State University. Activists followed Ms. Sinema into a bathroom and demanded that she explain why she had not done more to push for a pathway to citizenship for about eight million undocumented immigrants. The protesters said they took the drastic action because Ms. Sinema didn’t hold town-hall meetings. Protesters have also chased her through airports and followed her into a high-priced fund-raising event at an upscale resort.
“We are not surprised that she would once again center herself,” said Alejandra Gomez, the executive director of LUCHA. “This is another unfortunate, selfish act. There have been a number of betrayals but this is the ultimate one, because voters elected her as a Democrat and she turned her back on them.
Tammy Caputi is a member of the City Council of Scottsdale and she said that Ms. Sinema is going to be even freer now that she knows she can do the right thing.
Those weren’t quotes from her announcement. Those were from one of her widely run 2018 Senate campaign ads (which is still at the top of her YouTube page).
JimJeffords of Vermont defected from the GOP 20 years ago in order to give control of the Senate to Democrats.
Facing a difficult reelection, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania left the Republican Party in 2009 to become a Democrat. Democrats got a 60-vote majority when Al Franken won the election in Minnesota.
Lieberman became an independent after serving as the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee. Lieberman and the Democrats had writing on the wall for a while. He was jeered by anti-war protesters when he visited Arizona in 2003 because he had supported the Iraq war.
“He’s a shame to Democrats,” the organizer of the protest said. “I don’t even know why he’s running. He seems to want to get Republicans voting for him — what kind of strategy is that?”
Ironically, though she hopes her decision to remove the “D” from next to her name will bolster her brand back home, it may contribute to a Republican being elected senator from Arizona in 2024.
The de registration won’t change much on Capitol Hill. Democrats have firm control of the chamber because of the winning of Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia.
“Five decades ago, 144 House Republicans were less conservative than the most conservative Democrat, and 52 House Democrats were less liberal than the most liberal Republican, according to the analysis. But that area of overlap started to shrink.
“Since 2002,… there’s been no overlap at all between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004, when Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia retired. The widening of the gaps between conservatives and liberals in the House and Senate makes it much less likely that there will be a common ground to find.
She voted with the party in almost all of the time, which is not the lowest level of other Democrats. Some Senators, including Joe Manchin of West Virginia, have voted with the party, albeit slightly, according to a tally.
It’s certainly good publicity for someone with low approval ratings – just 37% overall, including 41% of independents, approved of the job Sinema was doing, according to a bipartisan survey conducted by Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward.
Mark Kelly was reelected this year, and he appealed to the middle by separating himself from the Biden administration border policies.
The Senate Map is a Complex Puzzle for a Democratic Party: The Case of Mackenzie Gravel, Jerry Gruening, Andrade Sinema
She would be eligible to get on the ballot with a go-straight-to-general- election pass if she can get the higher signature threshold for an independent.
There’s a real danger here for both the party and for Sinema. The Democrats’ chances of retaining the seat could be in jeopardy if someone wears the team jersey. It is likely that her candidacy would open up a path for a Republican to win with a mere plurality.
A more detailed picture of democrats and Sinema can be found in that simple math. Sinema’s decision is no longer in the best interests of the Democrats in the next Congress and their Senate map became even more complicated because of it.
The King example is not included. King, like Sinema, is a moderate from not a deeply blue or red state. There’s just one problem for Sinema in this analogy: King is popular. He had previously won the governorship twice as an Independent and had many high favorables.
The 2010 Florida Senate race could be worrisome for Democrats in a purple state. Then Republican Gov. Charlie Crist decided to run as an independent after it became clear he wouldn’t beat the more conservative Republican Marco Rubio in a Republican primary. Crist, who said he would caucus with the Democrats, split the Democratic vote with then Rep. Kendrick Meek, and Rubio cruised to a win.
I should point out that Democrats certainly have a chance. The 1968 Alaska Senate race, for example, featured two Democrats (Mike Gravel and then Sen. Ernest Gruening as write-in). Gravel won in the state which Republican Richard Nixon carried, too, by a few points.
Arizona Republicans could nominate an extreme candidate in the 20th century. They lost statewide races because of who they nominated.
Sinema also could find herself flaming out when running in the general election without a major party backing her like Gruening did in 1968 or then Sen. Jacob Javits in the 1980 New York Senate race.
The Democrats already have a difficult map. Depending on whether the Democrats win the presidency (and have a Democratic vice president who can break Senate ties), they can afford to lose zero to one Senate seats and maintain a majority.
The Democrats caucus with 23 of the 34 senators up for reelection. An abnormally large number (7) represent states Republican Donald Trump won at least once. This includes Arizona.