The Times Opinion Project: Following a Group of Undecided Young Voters through the Counting Day Before the Democratic National Convention

Times Opinion started a new project to follow a group of young undecided voters through the election, and we had a wide-ranging discussion about the issues of the day before the Democratic National Convention. The group had very specific opinions about Mr. Trump. Some of them were teenagers when the attack on the Capitol happened, and they held Mr. Trump responsible. They described him as a traitor, a liar, and a good person. Some thought he would lose an election.

When we asked them to rate Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump on a scale of 0 to 10 (with zero being extremely negative), Ms. Harris got mostly threes — she did no better than a five. Mr. Trump got mostly fours and fives, and topped out with a seven.

There was a different way the group criticized the two candidates. Most of them had doubts about Ms. Harris — how she would improve the economy, whether she supported Israel, if she was patriotic, what she knew about President Biden’s cognitive abilities. They labeled her disingenuous, invisible, fake. Most were suspicious about Ms. Harris — yet most detested Mr. Trump. They knew who he was.

When my husband got called to join an election poll after dinner, it was an exciting time in our house. I was in the middle of getting my toddler prepared for bed when he ran into the room, grabbing our baby and his phone and putting them on the speaker so I could hear the questions.

When you get to look behind the curtain of a poll and see how other candidates are asking voters their opinions, it is a real thrill. But it was also a reminder of how messy social science can be. Here was my husband telling this nice interviewer what he thought about immigration and Tim Walz while bouncing an infant in the hallway. I can only imagine what others are up to while answering survey questions.

Americans are going to be interested in polls as we near Election Day. Election forecasting models are being heavily reviewed and debated by commentators. Big headlines can be triggered by small shifts in polling results. As we start this post-Democratic convention week, when analysts will be combing for any hint of a bump for Kamala Harris, it’s worth keeping in mind that there are lots of things that make polling art as much as science.