The Impending Israel-Hamas Agreement and the Prospect for a Deal in the Era of High-Scale Middle East Security Processes
The impending deal comes after weeks of a number of intensive rounds of negotiations in Doha between Israel and Hamas. Representatives from both sides were in different rooms, as mediators from the U.S., Egypt and Qatar passed along messages.
The Egyptian official said that the sides were aiming for a deal by the inauguration of Trump, but that it would likely take a few more days. A third official said that the talks were in a good place, but hadn’t been wrapped up. That official also assessed that a deal was possible before the inauguration.
A phased cease fire is being discussed. Netanyahu has made it clear that he is solely committed to the first phase, a release of hostages in return for a halt in fighting. There is a chance of a lasting ceasefire after the first phase is over. Hamas has demanded a full withdrawal and complete end to the war, and is hoping that this first phase will lead to that outcome.
In exchange for a far greater number of Palestinian prisoners, the pact envisions a six-week pause in fighting during which 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and other Gaza militant groups will be released. The total number of Palestinians released from Israeli custody is expected to be around 1,000, according to a Palestinian official, who was not authorized to speak to the media.
Israel’s domestic politics are one of the main complicating factors. A key Netanyahu ally in the Israeli Cabinet, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is publicly opposing the deal as a “catastrophe,” arguing against releasing “arch-terrorists” and saying Israel should instead “occupy and cleanse” the entire Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu is hoping that the prospect of a Trump administration — which includes allies of the West Bank settler movement — will persuade his partners to remain in the government.
The head of Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence agency, David Barnea, and Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, were both in the Qatari capital, Doha. The presence of Barnea meant that high-level Israeli officials would be involved in the talks again.
McGurk has been working on final details of a text to be presented to both sides, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told CNN’s “State of the Union.” But he said that he would not predict whether a deal can be reached by Jan. 20.
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He said that they were very, very close. We’re far because we’re very close, unless you actually get across the finish line.
Since 2007, Hamas has controlled the Gaza Strip, and Israel has fought wars with it. This conflict is the longest and most deadly of the previous ones.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home. Israelis rallied again Saturday night in Tel Aviv, with photos of hostages on display.
Palestinians in Gaza are hesitant about their hopes for a stop to Israel’s campaign because it has devastated much of the territory and driven around 90% of its 2.3 million people from their homes.
“We hear that there are negotiations every day, but we see nothing,” said Mazen Hammad, a resident of the southern city of Khan Younis. We believe there is a truce when we see it on the ground.
Israel’s top security chiefs traveled to Qatar this weekend, and the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross — the group that facilitated the last hostage-prisoner exchange in November 2023, a month into the war — is visiting Israel and Gaza, meeting officials in anticipation of a new deal.
Yet Israel has its own reasons to cooperate with Trump on expediting a deal: it wants his help pursuing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and his support for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
According to a Hamas official who was not authorized to speak to the media, Hamas wants to demonstrate flexibility by proposing different solutions to each point of contention.
The group ofIsraeli hostages is expected to be released by Hamas, including women, older men and hostages with illnesses. Israel had requested their release.
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“I think there’s a certain fear of the unknown, in terms of what the new administration will do and will say,” Lew said. The incoming administration and outgoing administration don’t want a hostage deal now and need to push everyone to make concessions to reach that.
President-elect Trump has repeatedly warned that if the hostages captured from Israel by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7, 2023, and held in Gaza aren’t released by his inauguration, there would be “hell to pay.”
Many families of the remaining hostages who are not slated for release in the first phase worry that pressure to release their relatives will wane. They are lobbying for an agreement that would end the war and allow the release of hostages.
Large sections of the public in both Israel and Gaza are exhausted by the conflict and will welcome an agreement that promises a definitive end. However, some conservative members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have already expressed opposition to the deal on the grounds that Hamas should be completely eradicated to prevent a repeat of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, in which Hamas fighters and other militants killed around 1200 people and took more than 250 hostages.
The Israeli official said a full withdrawal of troops from Gaza would not happen until all hostages are freed, but a further round of negotiations will begin about 16 days after that.
It is expected that the first exchange of Israeli and Palestinian hostages will take place on the same day. The two sides are also talking about arrangements to allow displaced Palestinians in the south of Gaza to return to their homes in the north.
The deal is likely to be challenged before the Supreme Court in Israel because it needs to be approved by the full Cabinet and government. So it may be days before the terms are implemented.
He declined to give details of the impending agreement. But a senior Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks, outlined some of the key provisions.
After more than fifteen months of fighting in their most devastating war ever, Israel and Hamas are extremely close to agreeing to a ceasefire, according to officials involved in the talks.