The Kremlin’s Cold War for Global Power: The Case of Vladimir Putin and the War of the Koreans with the Soviet Union
The Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs has a professor named Sergey radchenko. He is based in Bologna, Italy. His new book, To Run the World: The Kremlin’s Cold War Bid for Global Power, was published by Cambridge University Press in May.
If anyone told Shevardnishvili that North Korea would help Russia reconquer its neighboring country, he would be in a state of disbelief. Russian President Putin is in North Korea this week, trying to build his axis of tyrannies.
It didn’t go as planned. As Putin now calls it, the invasion of the South by the North Koreans triggered U.S. involvement and resulted in China intervening too. The United Nations and U.S. troops were pushed back to the 38th parallel by the Chinese. The fighting ended with a cease-fire in 1953 but the nations are still at war.
In the early 60s, Kim launched a purge of the Workers Party of Korea because he believed that they were pro- Chinese and pro-Russian. Kim got away with his purge, and then he embraced what’s called juche. It’s not in economic terms, of course, though it was definitely self-reliant. The North Koreans continued to depend on their two sponsors — China and the USSR — for economic and military aid.
The Soviets were worried about what Kim’s militant aggression would mean for the soviet union, such as the shootdown of the American spy plane EC- 121 in 1969. When the relationship began to fracture in the late 1980s, only the hard-line Stalinists shed any tears. The rest of Russia looked to South Korea.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 changed the Kremlin’s game in Korea. South Korea’s sanction against Russia caused a plunge in bilateral trade. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol visited Kyiv in July 2023 in a show of support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
But there is something more to this relationship than pragmatic considerations alone explain. Putin has embraced North Korea because Kim’s militant, anti-Western outlook is something that chimes well with his own turn against the West and against democracy. Rhetorically at least, Russia is becoming more and more like North Korea.
The Foreign Minister accused Shevardnadze of throwing out North Korea like a pair of shoes, more than 30 years ago. Putin pulled out these old, blood-stained shoes from the garbage bin and put them back on. He likes the look.
The treaty says that Russia and North Korea will fight international sanctions against them for their nuclear and missile programs.
In a press conference following the meeting, Putin said the agreement “includes the provision of mutual assistance in case of an aggression against one of the signatories.”
The full scope of the treaty and other agreements signed on Wednesday are not publicized. Some North Korea watchers are worried about the strength of the current ties.
But the United States and its allies have raised concerns that a growing military partnership would embolden the two ostracized countries and destabilize the region and beyond.
In Washington on Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said after his meeting with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that Russia’s war is “propped up” by countries like North Korea and China. If they succeed in Ukraine, it will make the world more dangerous, he said.
Kim Jong Un meets Putin at the Kumsusan State Guest House: Prospects for bolstering Russian-Ukraine relations in Asia
Kim personally greeted Putin on a red-carpeted tarmac after 2am on Wednesday, in a show of strong friendship. Putin was supposed to arrive on Tuesday but he changed his mind.
After hugs and a brief chat, the two rode in a Russian-made Aurus sedan together to the Kumsusan State Guesthouse along the capital’s streets, which flew Russian national flags and welcoming banners.
There were military bands, honor guards, and North Korean citizens at the welcoming ceremony that took place at the Kim Il Sung Square in the oppressive heat on Wednesday.
In an article published by North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper, and on the Kremlin’s website, Putin wrote, “we will develop alternative trade and mutual settlements mechanisms not controlled by the West.”
He further promised “full support and solidarity with the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine to protect the sovereignty, security interests and territorial integrity,” according to Sputnik.
He said the two countries can increase their cooperation in trade, culture, tourism, education, and agriculture.
Putin went to Vietnam on Thursday to sign at least a dozen deals in another effort to bolster Russia’s relations in Asia.
“That’s a huge political and diplomatic achievement,” he adds, “and it may be the kind of outcome Kim Jong Un wanted the most and finds very satisfying.”
Chinese diplomats and military officials were having talks in South Korea while Putin and Kim met. This was followed by a trilateral summit with the leaders of Japan and South Korea, which shows how China is trying to reestablish its relations with its neighbors despite their alliance with the U.S.
South Korea condemned the treaty, and said it would reconsider its policy of refraining from sending arms directly to Ukraine, instead of backfilling stockpiles of U.S. and Polish munitions.
Japan expressed grave concern about the pact, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg commented that the agreement showed authoritarian powers were aligning.
The 1961 Seoul-Korea Nuclear Security Treaty: Military Balancing, Self-Defining Defense, and North Korea’s Nuclear Security
“If, for example, North Korea provides weapons,” he says, “the value of those provisions will be converted to a ruble amount, and North Korea would be paid back in kind, like with food. This barter system assessed the value in rubles.
Hong Min is a North Korea expert with the Korea Institute for NationalUnification, a Seoul-based government think tank.
Russia used to support international sanctions against North Korea. The Security Council was unable to tighten sanctions on Pyongyang and the UN panel that monitored implementation of UN sanctions on North Korea was stopped from renewing its mandate by Moscow.
The treaty adds to the 1961 pact several preconditions for providing military assistance. The aid must be in line with Russian and North Korean national laws and Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which affirms the right of individual or collective self-defense for member nations under attack.
Whatever obligations and preconditions the treaty contains, experts note, they key factor will be how the two nations decide to interpret and implement the pact.
Chang theorizes that if the war inUkraine goes badly for Russia, they could possibly launch a military provocation to distract the attention of the U.S. and the West.
Russia isn’t willing to share high-level nuclear and military technology with North Korea, which has an estimated 50 nuclear warheads.
“The problem is that even secondary technologies can significantly improve North Korea’s weapons development,” Chang notes. Military balance on the Korean Peninsula can be a big deal.