On the Impact of Biden’s Decision to Leave the 2020 Presidential Race: Electoral Campaign Refresh and the Optimum Contribution to ActBlue
Jon Meacham is a historian who has helped to write speeches for Biden, and told NBC News that “very few people do this.”
Many Democrats are calling Biden’s concession patriotic and selfless, in part an attempt to draw a contrast with Trump. This would be a hard decision for any president, especially for someone who has been around as long as Biden has.
There’s rarely a perfect time to be a pollster, but on Sunday afternoon, as my latest national survey of voters was wrapping up, President Biden announced that he was withdrawing from the 2024 race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris.
The numbers can affect things whether they are polls or money. And both combined to exert a huge amount of pressure on Biden to reconsider. After his terrible debate on June 27 he was losing money in swing states.
Biden indicated in an ABC interview that only the “Lord Almighty,” polls showing his party losing or maybe some combination of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, current House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina could get him to step aside.
Pelosi, one of the shrewd political operators in the Democratic Party, appears to have led the charge. She pays very close attention to the polls and she listens to the swing-state Democrats who had seen a cratering in the numbers in their states and districts. Eventually, Biden got past denial to acceptance.
It has been the worst three-and-a-half weeks of any presidential campaign that I can remember.
But with this announcement, Democrats are smiling and seem energized for the first time since before the debate. This has injected them with much needed enthusiasm and money, even though they will not win the race. Democrats donated more than $43 million through ActBlue in the moments after Biden left the presidential race. It’s the biggest single day of Democratic donations since the 2020 election.
With the campaign reset, it is clear that Republicans do not have a good idea of how they are going to run against Harris.
They’ve charged that Biden was too old, might not know where he is, wasn’t qualified to run the country and he and his son are likely corrupt and have enriched themselves.
The risks of how Republicans talk about Harris are a lot more pronounced because of the fact that a black woman is running against two white men.
It was not often that Democrats got to troll Republicans, but they did it after Biden announced he was running for president. Many were trying to say the country couldn’t have a president who was old at the end of his term.
Kamala Harris – a problem solver with a progenitor — is she a real alternative to Mr. Biden?
Someone will need the signatures of at least 300 delegates to challenge Harris at the convention. Biden has 3,900 delegates. Is it possible that someone challenges Harris?
They are fellow Democratic Govs. There had been speculation that some people might challenge Harris at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, but they were all endorsed by Harris.
The polls should be thrown out. We are starting from the bottom up. Harris polling was the same as Biden before Sunday. The latest national NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, for example, had Biden up 50% to 48% over Trump, within the margin of error. Harris was also statistically tied, 50% to 49% over Trump.
Ms. Harris could give the double-haters what they wanted. A quarter of voters are “double haters” — those who were seemingly begging the two major parties to give them choices other than Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Now, one party has answered the call, and one question becomes: Is Ms. Harris that longed-for alternative, or is she seen as simply a continuation of the much-maligned Biden candidacy? Early indications show that she gets two points more than Mr. Biden among these voters.
But on the flip side, she was not a very good candidate in 2019 when she ran for the Democratic nomination. She struggled to convey her core values, instead saying she saw herself as a problem solver. She has been caricatured by the right as a liberal and criticized by the left as being too tough on crime as the state’s attorney general. She’s struggled with messaging at times as vice president, including on immigration, one of the areas Biden put her in charge of early on.
The communications director for the second year of the Harris administration, Simmons said thatKamala Harris will be the next president of the United States. She is a more viable candidate than she was because she has a position on the most important issue to the Democratic coalition and majority of Americans who are anti-MAGA.
Speculation quickly fell to people in swing states, such as Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina, who has already traveled a lot in this campaign.
Democratic circles love him because he is well-liked, has handled problematic issues, and is from Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has seen more ad money than any other state. The Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin must be taken out by the Trump campaign. They targeted Pennsylvania more than any other state and as of Sunday morning were holding onto a narrow lead in the polls.
Beshear is a democrat. He’s won praise from both sides of the aisle for how he’s worked with both parties, but he’s in a Republican presidential state.
Kelly, 60, is also from a swing state. He is married to a former congresswoman who was shot in the head and he can help Democrats raise money and blunt Republicans’ immigration attacks since he is from a border state. He isn’t from a swing state that has as many delegates as Pennsylvania or North Carolina.
How Did Joe Biden Run for the Post-Trump Reionization? What Has he Learned About Running for the White House?
This is all Biden has ever known. He served 7 terms in the Senate from Delaware and was vice president. He ran for the presidency before he was elected. He dropped out in disgrace in 1987 after a plagiarism scandal and did not get many votes in his 2008 campaign before being plucked by Barack Obama to be his running mate.
He has always wanted to be president and has been told by plenty of people in his life that he couldn’t do a lot of things. In 2020, he defeated Trump, and Democrats credit him with saving democracy. But now, reality set in that the path forward was narrowing, or potentially nonexistent.
MSNBC reported Monday that Gov. Beshear was endorsing her candidacy. “The vice president is smart and strong which will make her a good president,” he said.
There is no appetite for a contentious battle for the nomination to take on former president Donald Trump and any possible challenge seemed likely to be insignificant.
“A lot of people would like to see a mini-primary. That’s the process to find out if you have the strongest candidate, whether it be Kamala or someone else, to get behind,” longtime Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia told CBS on Monday.
The Democratic Party has moved to the left. But let’s see if she comes back. It is possible for a person to change or direction if they are in one position. I wish to see that change.
Harris isn’t a Bernie Candidate, but Democrats Are Rally Behind Vice President Harris: Evidence from the California Democrat Campaign
Harris raised $50 million in 48 hours, which suggests that the money won’t be a problem in her campaign against Trump.
These are not ordinary times. Harris wrote in a text solicitation to supporters that this will be an unusual election and he asked for $20 donations.
Sean Cooksey, the chair of the Federal Election Commission, said there are legitimate arguments that Harris isn’t entitled to those funds.
Cooksey shared on X some of the regulations about whether a candidate is a candidate in the general election or not.
He will have to think about his interpretation if the Trump campaign lodges a complaint or asks for an advisory opinion on Biden’s efforts to hand over his campaign war chest.
There is an abbreviated time for those complaints to be heard as there are roughly 100 days until the election.
Miller said thatKamala Harris would not be able to outrun Harris-Biden or her record from the California days.
Specifically, Republicans are already highlighting Harris’s more liberal immigration positions and will argue that she “covered up” for Biden’s mental acuity. Chris LaCivita, an official from the Trump campaign said that he lied about it every day.
The GOP Landscape of Replacing Mr. Biden with a Candidate: A Critical Look at the Week-Old Pre-Constitution Breakout
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz. has won statewide races twice and could put back on the map a state that Democrats believe had largely slipped away from Biden by the time he exited the race.
With just four weeks until the convention, Democrats will have little time to vet a potential running mate and voters won’t have to wait long to find out: the running mate is historically announced in the days prior to the convention.
I am not the only pollster trying to measure the impact of the events of the past week: the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the president coming down with bronchitis, and the selection ofJD Vance as Mr. Trumps running mate.
We’ll get clarity on those things in the next week or so. But I think we can already start assessing what new challenges and opportunities Democrats have by moving on from Mr. Biden to an alternative candidate, particularly Ms. Harris; and since she’s the likely nominee — and Republicans are already rewriting at least parts of their playbook with her in mind — let’s assess her and the political landscape.
Clarity on the “who”: Democratic leaders seem to be coalescing quickly around Ms. Harris, and Democratic voters, so far, seem to be largely OK with this, though some may still pine for an alternative or a more deliberative process.
Ms. Harris will drive abortion messaging loud and clear. During the June debate, when asked about the overturning of Roe v. Wade, Mr. Biden’s answer was meandering. One of the few issues where voters trust the democrats more than the republicans is abortion, and Ms. Harris has indicated that she will make it a focal point of her message.
The Times: Access Verification for a Post-Newtonian Man‘s Biden Term in Amalgamated Biden Candidate Election
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Two-thirds of Americans think that Biden should serve out his term in office and not step down, despite his decision to withdraw from the presidential race.