Ukrainian War and Putin’s Forcible Conversion to the West: A Brief History of the Cold War, and his Implications for the Kremlin and the West

The Kremlin plans to declare the land where battles are raging in all four regions to be Russian territory and to assert that it is defending, not attacking, in the war in Ukraine — and so it is justified to use any military means necessary, a thinly veiled nuclear threat. Annexing the provinces could be used as an excuse for drafting men from there to fight in the war, since there is a shortage of troops in the Russian Army.

Over the weekend of Lyman, a strategically important rail hub and gateway to the east of the country, Ukrainian forces moved eastward toward the city that they were forced to surrender to Russia three months ago. Any loss of territory undermines the objectives of the war launched by Mr. Putin to seize and incorporate the region.

Putin attempted to claim that the referendums reflected the will of millions of people, even though reports from the ground suggested that voting took place at gunpoint.

I want the authorities in the West to hear what I have to say. For everyone to remember. Some people living in Luhansk are becoming citizens. Forever,” the Russian president said during the annexation ceremony Friday.

The Russian president framed the annexation as an attempt to fix what he sees as a great historical mistake that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The major foreign policy aim of Putin is to restore Russia to being a major global power charged with protecting the Russian speaking world from the continued threat posed by Western forces.

Russia will now, despite the widespread international condemnation, forge ahead with its plans to fly its flag over a large swath of Ukrainian territory, which is the largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945.

The leader of Russia spoke in St. George’s Hall, where he declared that the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea was a part of Russia.

Hundreds of Russian members of Parliament and regional governors sat in the audience for Mr. Putin’s speech, as well as many of his cabinet ministers and the four Russian-imposed leaders of the occupied Ukrainian regions.

Mr. Dugin sought to cast victory in Ukraine as essential to Russia’s survival in an existential battle against the West, which he referred to as a “mortal enemy.”

He reeled off a litany of Western military actions stretching over centuries — from the British Opium War in China in the 19th century to Allied firebombings of Germany and the Vietnam and Korean Wars.

He said that the United States was the only country to have used nuclear weapons. Mr. Putin said that they had created a precedent.

The Kremlin’s victory over the Donbas: a clue to the fate of the Russian Army in the 21st century

As the Kremlin planned the elaborate ceremony, Russia launched a whirlwind of strikes against Ukrainian towns and cities overnight Thursday to Friday, including an attack on Zaporizhzhia that Ukrainian officials said killed 25 civilians — a reminder of its determination to continue fighting.

Friday’s events include a celebration on Red Square. Official ratification of the decrees will happen next week, said Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman.

The moves had been held in occupied territory during the war to disobey international law. Much of the provinces’ civilian populations has fled fighting since the war began in February, and people who did vote sometimes did so at gunpoint.

Cementing Russia’s hold over the two eastern regions, an area collectively known as the Donbas that Mr. Putin considers his primary prize, could allow the Kremlin to declare a victory at a time when hawks in Russia have criticized Russian forces for not doing enough to prevent recent breakneck gains by Ukrainian forces in the south and northeast of the country.

A recent draft of hundreds of thousands of Russians into military service has caused opposition in Russia and is a big hurdle to reestablish Mr. Putin’s control over the war.

Mr. Putin is going to deliver a speech that will bevoluminous, according to his spokesman. He is likely to downplay the military struggles in Ukranian and the domestic dissent. He will probably ignore international condemnation of sham referendums held in occupied Ukranian where people were forced to vote at will.

On the Fall of Lyman, a Strategic Railway Hub in the Donbas Region, Ukraine: Russian Defense of NATO Forces and Putin’s Expansion

KRAMATORSK, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces on Sunday hunted Russian stragglers in the key city of Lyman, which was taken back from Russia after its demoralized troops, according to a major Russian newspaper, fled with “empty eyes,” and despite Moscow’s baseless claim it had annexed the region surrounding the city.

Two days after President Vladimir V. Putin held a grandiose ceremony to commemorate the incorporation of four Ukrainian territories into Russia, the debacle in the city — Lyman, a strategic railway hub in the eastern region of Donbas — ratcheted up pressure on a Russian leadership already facing withering criticism at home for its handling of the war and its conscription of up to 300,000 men into military service.

In an unusually candid article published Sunday, the prominent Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda reported that in the last few days of their occupation, Russian forces in Lyman had been plagued by desertion, poor planning and the delayed arrival of reserves.

After more than an hour of praise and coverage of Russia’s expansion, the fall of Lyman wasn’t even mentioned on Russia’s flagship Sunday political show “News of the Week.”

They were forced to retreat due to their battle with NATO soldiers and the battle with Ukrainians.

These are not toys anymore. They are part of a systematic and clear offensive by the army and NATO forces,” the unnamed deputy commander of one Russian battalion told the show’s war correspondent, Evgeny Poddubny. The soldier insisted that his unit had been intercepting discussions by Romanian and Polish soldiers, not Ukrainians, on their radios.

The broadcast seemed intended to convince Russians who have doubts about the war or feel anger over plans to call up as many as 300,000 civilians that any hardships they bear are to be blamed on a West that is bent on destroying Russia at all costs.

The idea that Russia is fighting a broader campaign was repeated in an interview with the father of a well-known nationalist commentator who was killed by a car bomb.

Russia deployed missiles to Cuba but was more focused on subordinatingUkraine. It was in 1962, when America persuaded the soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, that removing nuclear weapons from Cuba is a better option than using them. The west should try and convince Mr. Putin that withdrawing his forces from Ukraine is less dangerous than fighting. He will be likely to do so if he understands that a long war threatens his regime — whose preservation seems to be the only thing he values more highly than a subordinated Ukraine — by fatally weakening domestic cohesion or by escalating out of control.

The European and Russian leaders have both accused the Western countries of trying to sabotage a gas line after it broke last month.

He said that the West claimed that they blew up the gas lines themselves. “We must understand the geopolitical confrontation, the war, our war with the West on the scale and extent on which it is unfolding. In other words, we must join this battle with a mortal enemy who does not hesitate to use any means, including exploding gas pipelines.”

The nonstop messaging campaign may be working, at least for now. Many Russians feel threatened by the West, said Aleksandr Baunov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who is from Russia.

“There is anger; there is fear; there is an idea to hide and flee, but it is not necessarily against Putin,” he said in a phone interview. Part of the anger is against the West or Ukrainians.

Sept. 26: The first troops called up in Russia’s new mobilization in Ukraine arrived at military bases, many with no prior training and with few trainers on hand, according to British defense intelligence. Putin later said “mistakes” in the call-up should be corrected.

Sept. 28: Moscow-backed officials in occupied parts of Ukraine made appeals for the regions to join the Russian Federation. Putin’s approval rating fell 6 points to 77% in a poll by the Levada Center. The U.S. Defense Department, meanwhile, announced $1.1 billion in additional security aid to Ukraine.

NATO leaders have vowed to stand behind Ukraine regardless of how long the war takes, but several European countries – particularly those that relied heavily on Russian energy – are staring down a crippling cost-of-living crisis which, without signs of Ukrainian progress on the battlefield, could endanger public support.

Past recaps can be found here. You can find more NPR’s coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR’s State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.

The Kiloparsec-Scale Attacks on the Kerch Straight Bridge in Kyrgyzstan’s Snow Bundle Revisited

The result in only one village of the Mountain-flankedzells of southwestern Kyrgyzstan has been devastating, with homes reduced to rubble, a burned out school and a gut-wrenching stench from the rotting carcasses of 24,000 dead chickens.

All fell victim last month to the worst violence to hit the area since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union — a brief but bloody border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both members of a Russia-led military alliance dedicated to preserving peace but which did nothing to halt the mayhem.

There is a global affairs analyst named Michael Bociurkiw. He is currently a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He contributes to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Even amid irrepressible jubilation here in Ukraine in the aftermath of a massive explosion that hit the hugely strategic and symbolic Kerch Straight bridge over the weekend, fears of retaliation by the Kremlin were never far away.

The strikes followed weeks of Ukrainian ground gains and began two days after a huge explosion damaged the Kerch bridge, the only crossing between the annexed Crimean peninsula and Russia. The blast that was used by the Kremlin as a justification for Monday’s bombardment gave it a significant strategic boost.

At midday, there were no air raid sirens and no reports of missiles being shot down, but there were reports of five drones being shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and dozens of others were injured.

Several major cities in eastern and southern Ukraine, including Kyiv, have been hit by a wave of missiles, rockets and drones since Monday, according to officials.

The sound of the air raid sirens and Russian attacks shattered the calm that had been in Ukrainian cities far from the fighting.

Businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible and millions of people have been asked to spend most of the day in bomb shelters because of the situation.

Even though there were numerous regions of Ukraine that were reviving, the attacks could cause another blow to business confidence.

These attacks began at the outset of the war and have only increased in scope and virulence since Ukrainian forces last month attacked a bridge – one particularly close to Putin’s heart – between mainland Russia and Crimea, which the Russians annexed in 2014.

dictators like to hardwiring newly claimed territories with record-breaking infrastructure projects. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. One of the first things China achieved was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. The 34 mile road bridge opened after two years of delays.

Why is Russia safe to leave Ukraine? The reaction among Ukrainians to the February 24th Ukrainian Independence Day as seen by the Kravets

The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many people shared their jubilation with text messages.

Sitting still was not an option for Putin, who was consumed by pride and self-interest. He responded in the only way he knows how, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that probably comes natural to a former KGB operative.

Putin has been placed on thin ice because of increasing criticism at home and on state-controlled television.

Before Monday’s strikes, the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate at Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, had told Ukrainian journalist Roman Kravets in late August that, “by the end of the year at the minimum we have to enter Crimea” – suggesting a plan to push back Russian forces to pre-2014 lines, which is massively supported by Ukrainians I’ve spoken to.

Now is the best time to use urgent telephone diplomacy to persuade China and India to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons.

Third, the West should make clear to a wide range of Russian audiences that it is safe to end the war by leaving Ukraine. An orderly withdrawal isn’t likely to lead to regime change in Russia. Both outcome are not an official goal of Western policy and talk of them is counter-productive. Some people in the west will not approve of that reassurance. But if Russia’s elites conclude that it is as dangerous for Russia to leave Ukraine as to stay, they have no incentive to press for an end to the war. Reassured doesn’t mean compromises.

Belarus joins Ukraine in war – a warning to Russia from the moment of crisis? Mr. Lukashenko faced Russian pressure in Minsk

High tech defense systems are needed to protect the country’s energy infrastructure. With winter just around the corner, the need to protect heating systems is urgent.

The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.

Russia massed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus before its February invasion and used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its initial, unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Moscow still has hundreds of troops in Belarus, from which it launches missiles and bombing raids, but their number is now expected to increase sharply.

“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.

In rambling remarks reported by the state news agency Belta, Mr. Lukashenko said that work had already started on the formation of what he called a “joint regional group of troops” to counter “possible aggression against our country” by NATO and Ukraine.

The strongman of the country that shares a long border with Belarus has resisted the pressure from Moscow to send his own troops.

Any further Belarusian involvement in the war could also have a psychological impact, Puri suggested. “Everyone’s mind in Ukraine and in the West has been oriented towards fighting one army,” he said. Belarus joining the invasion would help Putin tell the story that this is about restoring the lands of ancient Rus states.

Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst now in exile in Warsaw, said Mr. Lukashenko would likely try to resist deploying his own troops in Ukraine because that “would be so dangerous for him on so many levels. It would be disastrous in terms of public opinion.

Andrei Sannikov, who served as deputy foreign minister under Mr. Lukashenko during his early period in power but fled into exile after being jailed, said Mr. Lukashenko was “running scared,” caught between pressure from Russia to help its demoralized forces in Ukraine and the knowledge that sending in Belarusian troops would be hugely unpopular, even among his loyalists.

Russian retaliation – an onslaught of missile attacks – has expanded as Ukrainian forces have continued to push back Russian units and reclaim territory seized in the early days of the war.

The Russian Road to War with Ukraine: Surprises from the Russians, the Kremlin, and the Russian Consultative Service (CARES)

Not for the first time, the war is teetering towards an unpredictable new phase. “This is now the third, fourth, possibly fifth different war that we’ve been observing,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme.

It means that, as winter approaches, the stakes of the war have been raised once more. “There’s no doubt Russia would like to keep it up,” Giles said. But the Ukrainian successes of recent weeks have sent a direct message to the Kremlin, too. Giles said that they are able to do things that surprise us.

The flag of the country was hoisted by Ukrainian troops over a building in Vysokopillya. Ukrainian officials say they have liberated hundreds of settlements since their counter-offensive began.

Russia said it would help evacuate people from Kherson as the Ukrainian offensive continued to make gains in the region. The head of the Moscow supported administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, as it was becoming apparent that Russian forces were struggling against Ukrainian advances.

The counter-offensives that have taken place in the past few weeks have disproved the idea that theUkrainian army lacked the ability to seize ground.

“The Russians are playing for the whistle – (hoping to) avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in,” Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” told CNN.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

Ukrainian troops are focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastwards, having crossed the Oskil River in late September, with Moscow likely preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

A major blow in the Donbas would cause another powerful signal to be sent by the Ukrainians, who would want to improve on their gains before the cold starts to set in.

There are a lot of reasons why things need to get done quickly in Ukraine. The resilience of Ukrainians and Western backers is always going to be tested by the winter energy crisis in Europe.

The nation’s electricity company says it has been able to restore the power supply to the rest of the country after Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday. But Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that “there is a lot of work to do” to fix damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to reduce their energy usage during peak hours.

Experts believe it remains unlikely that Russia’s aerial bombardment will form a recurrent pattern; while estimating the military reserves of either army is a murky endeavor, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up.

“We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” Jeremy Fleming, a UK’s spy chief, said in a rare speech on Tuesday.

Russia may not be able to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives due to its limited supply of precision weapons.

How much weaponry and manpower each side has left in reserve will be very important in determining how the momentum will shift. Ukraine said it intercepted 18 cruise missiles on Tuesday and dozens more on Monday, but it is urging its Western allies for more equipment to repel any future attacks.

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

The effect of such an intervention on pure manpower would be insignificant as the country has a lot of active duty troops. If it happened, it could lead to another assault on the northern flank ofUkraine.

Giles said reopening the northern front would be a challenge for Ukraine. He said that Russia would be provided a new route into the region if Putin tried to seize it.

By changing the narrative of the conflict over the last two months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been able to show his friends in the West that military aid can help win the war.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that NATO needed more systems for Ukraine in order to better stop missile attacks.

“These air defense systems are making a difference because many of the incoming missiles [this week] were actually shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems provided by NATO Allies,” he said.

Ukraine “badly needed” modern systems such as the IRIS-T that arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS expected from the United States , Bronk said.

Moscow’s new power and the challenge of military deployments in the Middle East: On the prospects for a shift in the balance of power in a complex conflict zone

That doesn’t mean the mobilized forces will not be used. They may be used in support roles to help with the burden on the rest of Russia’s professional army. They could fill out some of the units along the line of contact, as well as cordon some areas and man checkpoint in the rear. They’re unlikely to become a fighting force. There are signs that there are problems with discipline among soldiers in Russian garrisons.

In that case, Mr. Putin could lash out more broadly against Ukraine. If the supplies of missiles remain, the attacks of the past week could be expanded across Ukraine, while Russia can strike the Ukrainian leadership.

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, was taking pains to make sure that the people in his city were reassured. “At present, no measures are being introduced to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life,” Mr. Sobyanin wrote on his Telegram channel.

And despite the new power granted them by Mr. Putin, the regional governors of Kursk, Krasnodar and Voronezh said no entry or exit restrictions would be imposed.

Moscow’s declaration of martial law for the first time since World War II is likely to cause concern in many Russians, analysts say.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

On Tuesday, the newly appointed commander of the Russian invasion, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, acknowledged that his army’s position in Kherson was “already quite difficult” and appeared to suggest that a tactical retreat might be necessary. General Surovikin said he was ready to make “difficult decisions” about military deployments, but did not say more about what those might be.

Russia, which has been a dominant military force in Syria since 2015 and helps maintain the government’s grip on power, still keeps a sizable presence there. The change could bring about a shift in the balance of power in one of the world’s most complicated conflict zones, as well as leading Israel to rethink its stance toward the Ukraine conflict.

David A.Andelman, a contributor to CNN and author of the book ” A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen” is a member of the French Legion of Honor. He formerly was a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia. The opinions expressed in this commentary are of his own. View more opinion at CNN.

He wants to distract his nation from the obvious fact that he is losing badly on the battlefield and not even trying to achieve any of his objectives.

Putin is hoping the political clock and the start of winter in Europe will weaken the powers that have destroyed his military-industrial machine and wiped out Russia’s military might.

This ability to keep going is dependent on a host of variables, such as the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

In the early hours of Friday, EU powers agreed on a plan to control energy prices that had been increasing in the wake of sanctions on Russia and the Kremlin cutting gas supplies.

An emergency cap on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility and permission for EU gas companies to form a group that buys gas on the international market are included in these.

While the French leader said that the summit had maintained European unity, he conceded there was only a “clear mandate” for the European Commission to work on a gas cap mechanism.

Still, divisions remain, with Europe’s biggest economy, Germany, skeptical of any price caps. Now energy ministers must work out details with a Germany concerned such caps would encourage higher consumption – a further burden on restricted supplies.

These divisions are part of Putin’s dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Many of these issues are already being fought over by Germany and France. The French President is trying to reach some accommodation, but he and the Chancellor of Germany will make a conference call on Wednesday.

In support of Ukraine, Biden wants to end the Cold War to protect the interests of the European Central Intelligence Agency (ECI). The Italian far-right coalition declared solidarity with Ukraine

The new government took power in Italy. The first woman to hold the position of Italy’s prime minister tried to ignore the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners meanwhile, has expressed deep appreciation for Putin.

In an audiotape recorded by LaPresse, Berlusconi stated he returned the gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine because he thought Putin was a good person.

Matteo Salvini, the new deputy prime minister in Italy, said during the campaign that he would not want sanctions on Russia to hurt those who imposed them more than those who were hit by them.

Poland and Hungary, two of the most ardently right-wing nations in Europe, have different takes on the EU’s policies over Ukraine. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

Kevin McCarthy, the House GOP leader who is poised to become Speaker if the Republicans take control of the house next month, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they are not going to write a blank check.” They just won’t do it.”

The Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia in order to end the war, even as their troops are still occupying vast swaths of the country.

The caucus chair sent reporters a statement clarifying their comments in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called his Ukranian counterpart to say that the US supports him.

Indeed, while the US has proffered more than $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, when Congress authorized $40 billion for Ukraine last May, only Republicans voted against the latest aid package.

This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces have been the underpinnings of their remarkable battlefield successes against a weakening, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.

All these actions point to an increasing desperation by Russia to access vitally-needed components for production of high-tech weaponry stalled by western sanctions and embargos that have begun to strangle the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex.

The report said that Russian production of hypersonic missiles has stopped due to lack of necessary semi-conductors. Plants that make anti-aircraft systems have been shut down, aircraft are can’t be bought, and Russia has reverted to soviet-era defense stocks for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

Kim has utilized black market networks abroad to procure what he needs to fuel his war machine, just as Putin has tried to do. The United States has already uncovered and recently sanctioned vast networks of such shadow companies and individuals centered in hubs from Taiwan to Armenia, Switzerland, Germany, Spain, France, and Luxembourg to source high-tech goods for Russia’s collapsing military-industrial complex.

The Justice Department also announced charges against individuals and companies seeking to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

The Russian War on Crime Against Ukraine: Why Do Ukranian Mines Fall? What Do They Want to Do? How Foreign Power and Technologists Have Solved Their Problems

Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

Now Poland is facing the repercussions from these attacks – and it’s not the only bordering country. The Russian rockets that knocked out power across neighboringMoldova, which is not a NATO member, attracted much less attention than the Polish incident.

One thing is certain: Whatever the circumstances of the missile, it is clear. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.

His forces have planted mines in vast stretches of territory in Kherson from which they’ve recently withdrawn – much as the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia stretching back to the 1970s. Cambodian de-mining experts have been called in to help with the daunting task facing Ukranian in the year 2022. There are evidence of atrocities and torture left behind by Russian armies, which is similar to what happened to the Khmer Rouge.

Russian soldiers have rebelled against what they have been told to do and refuse to fight. Amid plummeting morale, the UK’s Defense Ministry believes Russian troops may be prepared to shoot retreating or deserting soldiers.

Indeed a hotline and Telegram channel, launched as a Ukrainian military intelligence project called “I want to live,” designed to assist Russian soldiers eager to defect, has taken off, reportedly booking some 3,500 calls in its first two months of activity.

Diplomatically, Putin finds himself increasingly isolated on the world stage. He was the only head of state that didn’t go to the G20. Even though Putin once wanted to return to the G7, he now seems to have forgotten about it. Canada, including Canadian-American Jim Carrey, is not allowed into Russia due to its ban on Canadians.

Above all, many of the best and brightest in virtually every field have now fled Russia. This includes writers, artists and journalists as well as some of the most creative technologists, scientists and engineers.

One leading Russian journalist, Mikhail Zygar, who has settled in Berlin after fleeing in March, told me last week that while he hoped this is not the case, he is prepared to accept the reality – like many of his countrymen, he may never be able to return to his homeland, to which he remains deeply attached.

French-German Joint Plans for a Future Combat Air System: The Russian Orthodox Church and the War on the Cold War between the East and the West

The West wants to deprive the country of material resources to pursue this war so that they don’t have to use Russian oil and gas. “We have understood and learnt our lesson that it was an unhealthy and unsustainable dependency, and we want reliable and forward-looking connections,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission told the G20 on Tuesday.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. On Monday, word began circulating in aerospace circles that the long-stalled joint French-German project for a next-generation jet fighter at the heart of the Future Combat Air System – Europe’s largest weapons program – was beginning to move forward.

The final analysis shows that Putin doesn’t seem to know that revenge isn’t an appropriate means of warfare and it’s likely that Russia will be weakened and isolated.

If Zelenskyy follows through on his threat to ban the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, many will wonder if the raids on churches are related to the Moscow ties.

The President of France will host the President of the European Commission and the Prime Minister of Norway in Paris on Monday.

Also in France, on Tuesday, the country is set to co-host a conference with Ukraine in support of Ukrainians through the winter, with a video address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Return of Brittney Griner in the U.S. after the December 8 Russian-Bulge War: A Test for Russian Diplomacy

After more than a decade in Russian custody, American basketball player Brittney Griner was freed on December 8. Her release came in exchange for the U.S. handing over convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. Griner is back in the U.S. and reunited with her wife. Bout is back in Russia and is reported to have joined an ultranationalist party.

New measures targeting Russian oil revenue took effect Dec. 5. They include a price cap and a European Union embargo on most Russian oil imports.

Ukraine hit targets in the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, including a church reported to be used as a Russian military base. The city in southeastern Ukranian’s Zaporizhzhia region was used by Ukrainian forces as a target.

Russian forces turned the city of Bakhmut into burned ruins, Zelenskyy said. Russia is attempting to take control of the city in the eastern Donbas region.

President Zelenskyy had a phone call with President Biden on Dec. 11, as well as the leaders of France and Turkey, in an apparent stepping up of diplomacy over the 9 1/2-month-long Russian invasion.

Putin said his forces were starting a “special military operation” that would be over in a few weeks.

Russian life was disrupted when the war stopped a post- soviet period in which the country pursued, if not always, democratic reforms.

War against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated and Struturing with More Tumult Ahedral-Diffusion-Discrimination

The military or leadership has not been allowed to be criticized since February. According to a leading independent monitoring group, about 20,000 people have been arrested for demonstrating against the war.

Long prison sentences for questioning the Russian army have been meted out to high profile opposition voices.

In other areas, organizations and individuals are added to a growing list of “non-desirable” organizations meant to hurt their reputation in the Russian public.

Russia’s most revered human rights group was forced to stop its activities due to alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The state argued that the war in Ukraine was an attack on “traditional values,” and that Russia’s already restrictive anti-LGBT laws had been greatly expanded.

There are still repressions targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. Should the moment arise, the measures are designed to crush wider dissent.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

Limits on internet use as well. In March, American social media giants were banned. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Russians still get access to independent sources of information through technical workarounds. Older Russians prefer state media propaganda, because they are angry with TV talk shows.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

War against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated and Stuck with More Tumour: How Russian Foreign Investments Have Been During Putin’s First Military Campaign

Thousands of perceived government opponents left the war’s early days due to fears of persecution.

Yet Putin’s order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops in September prompted the largest outflow: Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to border states including Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Georgia in an attempt to avoid the draft.

Some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus are confident about their economies growing even though Russians remain a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics.

Russia’s banking and trading markets looked shaky in the first few days of the invasion. A number of global brands, such as McDonald’s and ExxonMobil, have reduced or closed their operations in Russia.

President Putin is betting that Europe will blink first when it comes to sanctions because they will be angered over soaring energy costs at home. He decided to ban the export of oil to countries that abide by the price cap, which will make the pain worse in Europe.

The economic damage has already put an end to Putin’s two-decades strong reputation for providing “stability” — once a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the collapse of the USSR.

When it comes to Russia’s military campaign, there’s no outward change in the government’s tone. Russia’s Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

The long war suggests that Russia underestimated the will of the Ukrainians.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. The figures are much higher in Western estimates.

Russia’s invasion backfired in its primary aim, which was to push NATO towards Russia’s borders.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India and China have eagerly purchased discounted Russian oil, but have stopped short of full-throated support for Russia’s military campaign.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

State of the Nation Address after 10 Months of War: Russia’s Cold War with the Soviet Union at the Front Line of Resolved Security

A state of the nation address won’t be happening until next year because it has been repeatedly delayed. Putin’s annual media event in which he fields questions from ordinary Russians has been canceled.

An annual December “big press conference” where the Russian leader handles questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media was tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin has given no reason for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

America should be focused on three things. First, it should no longer declare that there are measures it will refrain from taking, and weapons systems it will not provide, to support Ukraine. To signal restraint is to give up something. It makes the war more risky because it emboldens Russia to probe for and try to impose further limits on U.S. action.

“Russia is preparing for maximum escalation. It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training. When it comes to an offensive from different directions, as of now, I can say that we are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks.”

“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.

“We are on the edge of a very active phase of hostilities, February and March will be very active,” Andriy Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said on national television.

The ministry said that military representatives from the two countries will practice planning for the use of troops based on their experience with armed conflicts.

Moldova’s Defense Minister Maya Sandu: “Majorus MH17” was a “High-Intensity, Low-Density Attack” on the First Day of the War on Ukraine

The Ukrainian President made a surprise Europe tour, meeting leaders in London, Paris, and Brussels and repeating his call for fighter jets to be sent to Ukraine.

Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova attended President Biden’s State of the Union speech, for the second year in a row, but the war in Ukraine received far less attention in the address this time.

The international team investigating the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 found there was a “strong indication” that Russian President Putin gave the go-ahead to supply anti-aircraft weaponry to the rebels.

In this editor’s note, we write about an analyst, consultant and journalist focused on Eastern and Central European affairs. You can follow him on social media, using the #CrstnGherasim. His own views are expressed in this commentary. View more opinion at CNN.

Ana Golea hopes that things will improve, that her parents will be safe, that her country can avoid being dragged into conflict, but she acknowledges that for that to happen, Moldova desperately needs outside help and assistance to face this flurry of challenges.

The trips she makes from the Romanian capital of Bucharest, where Ana has been living for the past decade, to Moldova, have only gotten more frequent since power blackouts and energy shortages hit the small country of 2.6 million people.

Ana is worried about her parents as they face winter and anxious about the next missile that might come from Russia as the war on Ukraine gets closer to a year.

Last month, Moldovan President Maia Sandu said border police had found missile debris near the village of Larga in Moldova’s north. It is not the first time that missiles have been found in December, and some people wonder what will happen if luck runs out and a stray rocket hits their house.

For this scenario not to happen, Moldova needs outside help and constant military support to keep it from being perceived by Russia as an easy target. The country, one of the poorest in Europe, has almost entirely outdated military equipment according to Moldova’s defense minister.

Seizing Odesa could have allowed Russia’s army to connect with that territory where some 1,500 Russian troops are stationed—turning the tiny sliver of land into a new Donbas, this time much closer to the doorstep of NATO and the EU.

There is fear that Russia will launch a new effort to reach Moldova, which could cause other countries to be involved in the war. The Secretary General of NATO says that Russia is trying to “freeze” the war for a spring assault which many fear may bring Russian troops to Odesa.

During a visit to Chisinau earlier this spring, UN Secretary General António Guterres talked about the fragile position Moldova is in, noting that “Moldova is by far the country that has received the most refugees, as proportion of its own population.” He mentioned that the country finds itself on the “front line of preservation, peace and stability in the world.” Well, what does that mean?

Firstly, Moldova took substantial pressure off Europe’s shoulders in dealing with refugees. Out of more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees spread out throughout Europe and beyond, 108,000 may not seem like much, but the burden is substantial for a small country, and it alleviates pressure on others in the region.

The problems ofMoldova can be blamed on internal factors as well. The current pro-EU government has been trying to tackle longstanding issues of corruption in the country. A recent Council of Europe report highlighted judicial shortcomings inMoldova, with the system being put under scrutiny after a contest for the top prosecutor job.

The people of Moldova are losing theirs. According to World Bank statistics, Moldova has lost more than 12% of its population since 1991, as it has been hit hard by the demographic decline seen throughout many parts of post-communist Europe.

Gazprom has slashed its gas exports to Moldova and Ukraine has halted energy exports altogether due to Russian missile attacks. Russian attacks on the Ukraine caused power to be lost in half of the country. As a result of all this, Moldova is left with only the 10% of electricity that it manages to produce by itself.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu, plain spoken and charismatic, is leading a charm offensive; Sandu has met with Western leaders and gave an inspiring commencement speech at Harvard, helping to bring attention to Moldova’s plight. She knows that there would be nothing worse for Moldova than to be forgotten and ignored on the world stage.