Tech Presidential Preview: Donald Trump’s Aspen Policy Academy and the Business Impact of High-Tax Perturbation Tariffs
On Wednesday, the chief executives of the leading Big Tech companies congratulated the President-elect. Sundar Pichai (Alphabet), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), Tim Cook (Apple), Andy Jassy (Amazon), and Satya Nadella (Microsoft) have all sparred with Donald Trump before, but they were quick to get behind him as their companies face a fresh four years of operating under an influential politician who has proved volatile.
While Trump’s tech policy positions have varied widely—and shifted often—his actions during his last presidency and his comments on the campaign trail shed light on what Big Tech might expect during a second term.
Betsy Cooper, the director of the Aspen Policy Academy, believes that this might be a time in which there is a pick of favorites amongst the big tech players.
It has raised some questions about Apple’s business since almost all of the tech giant’s hardware products are made in China. If the proposed tariffs were to take place, US shoppers would lose as much as $68 billion in spending power annually, according to the National Retail Federation.
Bernstein said in a bullish note on Wednesday that Apple may be less vulnerable than initially believed due to the company’s ability to absorb higher tariffs. Apple has been making products in Vietnam, which has been part of its supply chain.
From Taiwan to Technology, China Ponders What’s to Come under Trump 2.0: A U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the Taiwan Strait
One example is Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who some believe is under consideration for a job in the new administration. Pompeo has explicitly called for the U.S. to give Taiwan formal diplomatic recognition – a step that would almost certainly trigger a crisis across the Taiwan Strait.
Shen says Trump will likely have to reconcile with others in the Republican Party who have strong feelings about the U.S. offering more explicit and robust backing of Taiwan.
The independent international relations scholar in Shanghai did not have a clear idea of what his take was. “He wants to bargain, to use his unpredictability to coerce, to deter the mainland.”
On the campaign trail, Trump questioned why the U.S. should help Taiwan defend itself. He said that he respects Trump and that he wouldn’t dare move against the island because he was “f—ing crazy”. President Biden, by contrast, has said four times the U.S. would help in the event of a Chinese attack.
Taiwan, the self-governed democracy that Beijing claims to be part of China, will be the most importantirritant in bilateral relations.
“And of course, Beijing has mapped out all the congressional districts. If they need to target particular members of congress, they’ll do that because they know what industries are there.
Source: From Taiwan to technology, China ponders what’s to come under Trump 2.0
Chinese Trade in China: How U.S. Policymakers Can Get Their Ideas Out Of Beijing? An Economic Perspective from Foshan, China
He said they would feel much more comfortable using a wider array of punitive retaliatory tools, like currency devaluations, punishment of U.S. companies or allies, or steps to exacerbate U.S. inflation.
“The Chinese are messaging through a number of channels that America should not expect that Beijing will play the relatively careful, calibrated game that they did in the first trade war,” said Jude Blanchette, an expert in Chinese politics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in Washington.
Wang Zichen is the author of the Pekingnology newsletter on Substack and a researcher at the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing.
It could be hard for policymakers in Beijing to not be involved in trade. Soaring tariffs could put a big dent in exports, which have been by far the liveliest segment of an otherwise sluggish economy.
“Whether I export through China, with the tariffs added to the price for consumers, or through Thailand, where higher costs would result in a higher price, the cost will ultimately be borne by U.S. customers,” he said, adding: “For ordinary business owners like us, worrying about [the U.S. president] doesn’t help.”
“A 60% tariff would push us to increase investments in factories in Southeast Asia, specifically in Thailand in my case,” Cheng told NPR at his factory in the southern city of Foshan.
Cheng simply shrugs. In 2019, he moved some of his production to Bangkok, Thailand, beyond the reach of tariffs. He says many others in this business in China took similar steps.
Cheng, 46, owns a company in China that makes light fixtures for export, mostly to America. His main factory is currently churning out an order for more than 2,000 illuminated bathroom mirrors for a hotel in Las Vegas.