North Korea’s missile attacks on the United States and its allies in Asia: Security threats against a Russian enemy in the North and the South
In the first half of the year, North Korea test fired more than 70 missiles. The weapons were designed to hit the U.S. mainland and its allies in Asia.
The South’s joint chiefs said the missile flew approximately 2,796 miles to the east, reaching an altitude of 603 miles and a top speed of Mach 17, before landing in the Pacific Ocean. A body at Mach 1 is traveling at a rapid pace. Mach 2 is twice the speed of sound.
Two experts told CNN the missile fired was likely the Hwasong-12, an intermediate-range missile that was last tested in January.
“North Korea is going to keep conducting missile tests until the current round of modernization is done,” Lewis said, adding that a nuclear test could come “anytime.”
Lewis pointed out that such risks were low, especially that far out in the Pacific and that high above Japan. It is an escalation because it is provocative to fire a missile over your neighbor.
And if the test had failed, causing the missile to fall short, it could have endangered major population areas. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno says a missile flew over the Tohoku region, home to more than 8 million people.
US planes have been grounded in the past as a precautionary measure following North Korean missile launches. And in late November 2017, several commercial jet pilots were reported to have seen what appeared to be the re-entry of a North Korean missile as it approached the Sea of Japan.
“For the Japanese especially, it feels like a violation of their sovereignty,” Lewis said. If Russia fired a missile in Florida, we would have a fight.
Robert Ward, a senior fellow for Japanese Security Studies at the International Institute forStrategic Studies, pointed to multiple security threats facing Japan from an aggressive Russia to its north and south.
North Korea’s latest launch of missiles could be an appetizer for the main course of North Korea’s missile program, said Kim Jong Un
Lewis disagreed, saying that although North Korea sometimes responds or retaliates to specific actions by Western players or groups, for the large part “they have their own schedule … and I don’t think that we have a lot of impact on the timing.”
There are also practical reasons; North Korea often takes breaks in testing during the summer when weather is bad, and pick up again once the fall and early winter arrive – meaning now could just be the right conditions for a test, he added.
Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, added that Tuesday’s flight path could just make for a better test.
The test Wednesday of long-range cruise missiles over waters west of the Korean Peninsula was the first about North Koreas missile program for several months and came after a fiery statement by Kim.
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile launches were the simulated use of its tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to “hit and wipe out” potential South Korean and U.S. targets, state media reported Monday, as its leader Kim Jong Un signaled he would conduct more provocative tests.
“This is probably an appetizer for the main course, which is yet to come,” he added. “I would expect that when North Korea has more confidence in one of their ICBMs, they might fly one of those to full range over Japan.”
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, added that North Korea could be waiting until after China holds its Communist Party Congress in mid-October to “conduct an even more significant test.”
The test was a “serious act of provocation” that threatens peace and stability on the peninsula and a “clear violation” of United Nations Security Council resolutions that ban ballistic missile launches by North Korea, the JCS said, adding it was working with the United States to monitor North Korean movements.
The launches were called “a grave provocation” by the Joint Chiefs of Staff. South Korea and the United States closely watch North Korean moves and maintain readiness to deter any provocation by North Korea.
Experts say that North Korea has likely manufactured some nuclear warheads – “20 to 30 warheads for delivery primarily by medium-range ballistic missiles,” Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda of Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, wrote in September.
The president of South Korea met with the prime minister of Japan during a visit to New York last month. The two leaders discussed security cooperation in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threat. In recent months, the United States, Japan and South Korean have conducted their first trilateral anti- missile and submarine exercises in more than a year.
The statement said that the North Korean launch didn’t pose any immediate threat to the US or our allies, but was aware of it.
A new conservative government in South Korea that took office in May has emphasized deterrence over diplomatic engagement, raising concerns over possible cycles of escalating and counter-escalation, including more missile tests from North Korea.
Observers say Kim may use his country’s missile and nuclear tests to pressure the U.S. and other countries into lifting international sanctions placed on North Korea.
The South’s swift response came three days after the North fired two short-range missile in the latest in its series of weapons tests. Friday’s launches were seen as protest of the South Korean-U.S. exercises that North Korea sees as an invasion rehearsal.
The suspected ICBM was launched from the west coast of North Korea at around 7:39 a.m. local time, and flew about 750 kilometers (466 miles) before falling into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, east of the Korean Peninsula, Japan’s Defense Ministry said.
A statement by the South Korean Joint Chiefs says there were four missiles in the launch. The Army Tactical Missile Systems can fly over 200 miles, and are called surface-to-surface missiles.
Launching them so close to South Korean territory, Kim Jeong-dae says, could be seen as a kind of “area denial strategy that blocks the combined forces [of the U.S. and South Korea] from approaching North Korea.”
The short term plan to bring North Korea back to the negotiating table is impractical at this time.
“North Korea has many motives for publishing a high-profile missile story right now,” said the professor at Ewha University. Kim’s public reappearance provides a patriotic headline to mark the anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party.
“Through seven times of launching drills of the tactical nuclear operation units, the actual war capabilities … of the nuclear combat forces ready to hit and wipe out the set objects at any location and any time were displayed to the full,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
Cheong Seong-Chang at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea said the missile launches marked the first time for North Korea to perform drills involving army units tasked with the operation of tactical nuclear weapons.
The North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency said the actions were in response to 10 hours of South Korean live-fire artillery exercises near the border.
The North’s public launch of a missile from under an inland reservoir was also the first of its kind, though it has previously test-launched missiles from a submarine.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul’s University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea likely aims to diversify launch sites to make it difficult for its enemies to detect its missile liftoffs in advance and conduct preemptive strikes.
The detonation of the missile’s warhead at the set altitude was confirmed by North Korean authorities when the weapon was flying above the sea target.
North Korea released a slew of photos on the launches. Kim and his wife, Ri Sol Ju, were shown frowning by one of the people. Ri’s political standing was demonstrated by the image of her with her husband as they watched a weapons launch.
The director of operations said that the military will respond to this kind of provocation by North Korea.
“What I find notable is that these launches are not framed as tests of the missiles themselves, but rather of the units that launch them. That suggests these systems are deployed,” Lewis said on Twitter.
South Korea’s Joint Staff, Joint Forces, and Aircraft Carrier Strike Forces: The 77th Anniversary of the South Korean Independence Day
Among the key military installations in South Korea is the US Army’s Camp Humphreys, the largest US military installation outside of the United States with a population of more than 36,000 US servicemembers, civilian workers, contractors and family members.
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said Pyongyang had “multiple motivations” for making an announcement Monday.
Besides providing a “patriotic headline” for domestic consumption on the 77th anniversary of its ruling party, “it is making explicit the nuclear threat behind its recent missile launches,” Easley said.
The kind of tactical warhead Kim visited in the field may be an indicator of a forthcoming nuclear test, he said.
Kim further emphasized that Pyongyang will thoroughly monitor enemies’ military movements and “strongly take all military countermeasures” if needed, KCNA stated.
The US Navy dispatched an aircraft carrier strike group to participate in a number of days of trilateral exercises with South Korean and Japanese units.
“Our commitment to regional security is demonstrated by our flexibility and ability to move this strike group to where it is needed,” he said.
Japan’s Joint Staff said the security environment around Japan was getting more severe and that they were working with the US Navy to respond to threats.
According to the KCNA report the missiles flew for almost three hours above the sea before hitting their target.
Korean Warplane Tests of the South Korean Military Departure and a High-Order Airborne Artillery Reaction on the Joint Exercises with the South
“It is worth remembering that the details of these reports cannot be trusted,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. The Kim regime is sometimes surprisingly transparent about weapons development goals, but they also exaggerate strength and capabilities.
Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korean missile tests show a progressing program even if current strengths are exaggerated.
A cruise missile is powered by a jet engine, stays inside Earth’s atmosphere during its flight and is maneuverable with control surfaces similar to an airplane’s.
Cruise missiles have smaller payloads than ballistic missiles, so would require a smaller nuclear warhead than a missile designed to hit the mainland United States, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile.
“Policymakers in Seoul, Tokyo and Washington should not allow domestic politics and other challenges such as Russia’s war in Ukraine to prevent them from increasing international coordination on military deterrence and economic sanctions” on Pyongyang, he said.
New tensions are flaring between the Koreas, with the North flying warplanes near their shared border and launching the latest in a series of missiles and the South holding a live-fire artillery drill.
The Military Demarcation Line that runs from the north to the south of the two Koreas was only 12 kilometers away from the North at one point.
The South Korean military told CNN that the exercises did not violate the agreement with the North, but they did take place near the border. Seoul claims instead that Pyongyang violated the agreement earlier Friday by firing 170 rounds of artillery into the sea off its west coast.
The impact of the sanctions on the illegal fund transactions with the North Korean agencies and individuals will be the expectation of the South Korean government.
It was the highest number of North Korean short-range missiles fired in a single day, and included a ballistic missile that landed close to South Korean territorial waters for the first time since the division of Korea, according to the JCS.
Friday’s South Korean deployment included an unspecified number of F-35A stealth fighter jets, the statement said, and the South Korean warplanes participating in the ongoing joint maneuvers had also “maintained a readiness posture,” the South Korean military said.
The N-2 test of North Korea, the US Ambassador to the UN and the South Korean nuclear squarks catching squid
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said “everybody is holding its breath about” a potential North Korean nuclear test, which could provide further “confirmation of a program which is moving full steam ahead in a way that is incredibly concerning.”
“We are following this very, very closely. We hope it doesn’t happen but indications unfortunately go in another direction,” said IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi.
The US Defense Department stated that the exercises involve hundreds of aircraft and thousands of service members from both countries.
In Japan, the presumed ICMB launch triggered warnings to take shelter in the northern Miyagi, Yamagata and Niigata prefectures, where the Japanese Prime Minister’s office initially said it was expected to fly over. The missile did not cross over Japan according to the Defense Ministry.
There are a lot of unknowns about the missile’s ability to deliver a nuclear warhead on target, but it could theoretically put the US mainland in range of a North Korean nuclear warhead.
Thursday’s launches take the count of North Korean missile tests to at least 30 so far this year, according to a CNN tally – though the count of individual missiles is far higher.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, told CNN that the UN would put pressure on China and Russia to improve and enhance sanctions against North Korea.
“And the region where the North Korean missile fell,” he adds, “has many fishing boats catching squid,” suggesting that it could put South Koreans’ livelihoods at risk, and “pose existential threat to South Korea, if need be.”
North Korea’s response to COVID-19: The United States, South Korea and the U.S. are ready for a new UN Security Council meeting
The allies resumed large-scale training this year after North Korea began their weapons testing at a record pace, exploiting a divide in the UN Security Council to accelerate arms development.
South Korean jets and choppers attempted to shoot down any of the drones from North Korea, but they failed to catch up to them in time. One of the North Korean drones traveled as far as northern Seoul. The military offered a rare public apology Tuesday after causing security headaches for many in the South.
“We’ve said before these kinds of activities are destabilizing to the region potentially. So we call on them to cease that type of activity and to begin to engage in serious dialogue,” Austin said.
The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet on Friday to discuss the recent missile launches. According to a spokesperson for the US Mission to the UN, the US, UK, France, Albania, Ireland and Norway had called for an open meeting.
B-1B flyovers have been a show of force when tensions have been high with North Korea. The planes last appeared in the region in 2017, during another provocative run in North Korean weapons demonstrations. But the flyovers had been halted in recent years as the United States and South Korea stopped their large-scale exercises to support the former Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts with North Korea and because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The partners decided to extend the training to Saturday in response to a series of North Korean launches, which included an Ibex that disrupted train service in northern Japan.
South Korea’s Air Force Response to the First Arrival of a U.S.-Militon-Defined Drone
It’s the first time since last year that a North Korean drones entered South Korean airspace. South Korean military officials said at the time that the drone with a Sony-made camera photographed a U.S. missile defense system in South Korea.
Fighter jets and helicopter’s were launched to shoot down the drones from North Korea. The Defense Ministry said it was unsure if any North Korean drones were shot down after the attack helicopters fired a combined 100 rounds.
One of the South Korean fighter jets scrambled on Monday, a KA-1 light attack plane, crashed during takeoff but its two pilots both ejected safely, defense officials said. They said they also requested civilian airports in and near Seoul to halt takeoffs temporarily.
The official, who was unauthorized to be identified and commented on condition of anonymity, said “We recognize the need of the ROK to protect its territorial integrity.” The US is steadfast in its resolve to defend the Republic of Korea.
Kim has called for the development of drones which can be used to explore up to 300 kilometers from the enemy’s territory. In 2013, he watched a drone attack drill on a simulated South Korean target, according to the North’s state media.
Some South Korean experts said the North Korean satellite imagery was too crude for military reconnaissance purposes and that they are likely a disguised test of North Korea’s missile technology. Infuriated over such an assessment, Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, issued crude insults against unidentified South Korean experts. She also dismissed some outside doubts over North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile technology and threatened to conduct a full-range, standard-trajectory ICBM test.
South Korea’s president vowed to sternly deal with provocations by North Korea, as he called for boosting his country’s air defense network.
In March, South Korea conducted its first successful launch of a solid-fuel rocket, and defense officials said Friday’s launch was a follow-up test to the earlier launch. There was a public scare caused by Friday’s launch of a North Korean missile in South Korea.
South Korea currently has no military reconnaissance satellites of its own and depends on U.S. spy satellites to monitor strategic facilities in North Korea.
North Korea’s decision to release the results of the Plenary Meeting of the Workers’ Party, as reported by the Tages Observer
In an indication that the plenary meeting of the Workers’ Party was being wrapped up, the North’s state media reported Saturday that its powerful Politburo decided to complete the draft resolution of the plenary meeting.
It is expected that North Korea will make public the details of the meeting on Sunday, which will carry Kim Jung Un’s vows to expand his nuclear arsenal and introduce sophisticated weapons to deal with U.S. hostility.