The Russian War in Ukraine and its Consequences for Online Media, Entrepreneurs and Internet Users: Counterattacks on the Government, Military, and Human Rights
Russian President Putin announced 10 months ago that he was sending tens of thousands of troops to “demilitarize” Ukraine, which is its smaller independent neighbor and former satellite of the Russian and Soviet empire.
At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.
The invasion forced millions of Ukrainians from their homes and killed thousands of people in the biggest land war in Europe since World War II.
The post- Soviet period was marked by the pursuit of democratic reforms, and yet the war left a devastating hole in the country’s life.
Draconian laws passed since February have outlawed criticism of the military or leadership. Nearly 20,000 people have been detained for demonstrating against the war — 45% of them women — according to a leading independent monitoring group.
There were long prison sentences given to opposition voices who questioned the conduct and strategy of the Russian army.
The repressions extend elsewhere: organizations and individuals are added weekly to a growing list of “foreign agents” and “non-desirable” organizations intended to damage their reputation among the Russian public.
Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, which was due to receive the Nobel Prize in 2022, was forced to stop their activities due to violating the foreign agents law.
Russia’s anti-LGBT laws have been greatly increased by the state, as they argue that the war in Ukraine reflects a deeper attack on traditional values.
For now, repressions remain targeted. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.
Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.
Internet users are subject to restrictions as well. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.
There are technical ways to get around access to Russians who seek their own independent sources of information. Older Russians like to watch angry TV talk shows that spread conspiracy theories.
The Russian Exodus and the Ruin of Russia in the Cold Cold War: How the U.S. Treasuries Are Spending Their Money
Thousands of perceived government opponents — many of them political activists, civil society workers and journalists — left in the war’s early days amid concerns of persecution.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled to other border states in order to avoid the draft because of Putin’s order to mobilize 300,000 additional troops.
Putin said it was a good way to cleanse the Russian society of traitors and spies. Russian officials want those who left the country to have their passports taken. Yet there are questions whether Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest.
Meanwhile, some countries that have absorbed the Russian exodus predict their economies will grow, even as the swelling presence of Russians remains a sensitive issue to former Soviet republics in particular.
Russian price controls helped regain value for the ruble. McDonald’s and other brands were reborn under Russian ownership. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.
“U.S. treasury officials have two main goals: keep the market well supplied and deprive Russia of oil revenue,” Ben Cahill, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, recently told Bloomberg. They know that Indian and Chinese companies can earn larger margins by buying discounted Russian crude and selling it in the international market. They’re fine with that.”
Ultimately, President Putin is betting that when it comes to sanctions, Europe will blink first — pulling back on its support to Ukraine as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. The five-month ban on oil exports to countries that comply with the price cap may make the pain worse in Europe.
The economic damage has already put an end to Putin’s two-decades strong reputation for providing “stability” — once a key basis for his support among Russians who remember the chaotic years that followed the collapse of the USSR.
The government’s tone does not change when it comes to Russia’s military campaign. Russia’s Ministry of Defense provides daily briefings. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”
The length of the war suggests that Russia underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.
Russian troops have proven unable to conquer Ukraine’s capital Kyiv or the second city of Kharkiv. In November, Kherson was abandoned by Russia as a result of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian forces have been shelling the city.
Moscow’s problems have been made worse by the illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine, as it hasn’t been able to control the lands it now claims as its own.
The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates place those figures much higher.
Russia’s ability to defend its own strategic infrastructure was put into question when a number of explosions occurred along a key bridge connecting Russia to Crimea.
Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.
Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. Both India and China purchase discounted Russian oil, but are not fully supporting Russia’s military campaign.
The Indian–Russian Connection During the First 10 Months of Russian–Chinese War and the Decline of the Russian State of the Nation
A state of the nation address was scheduled for April but will not be given until next year. The annual “direct line” where Putin answered questions from ordinary Russians was no longer happening.
An annual December “big press conference” – a semi-staged affair that allows the Russian leader to handle fawning questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media – was similarly tabled until 2023.
There is no reason for the delays. After 10 months of war, no signs of victory, and a lack of good news, many believe that the Russian leader has run out of good news.
“You’re already seeing a very close Russia- China relationship, even in the last few years,” says the ORF’s Rajagopalan. The current Indian approach is that we want Russia to remain a part of the Chinese fold. Because for India, China has become the No. 1 national security threat.”
There is a realization that condemnation of Russia is far from unanimous a year into the war. The global south sees the focus onUkraine as a distraction from more pressing issues such as food security, inflation and debt.
The Rise of the Cold War: India’s Political Controversy Towards U.S. Security and Foreign Trade Relations with the Soviet Union
In 1900, Russia opened its first office in India, in Mumbai. During theCold War, relations took off.
“It started out as strategic sympathy for the Soviet Union, in the backdrop of India getting independence from the British. Rajeswari (Raji) Pillai Rajagopalan is a political scientist at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. The Cold War turned into an anti-West, anti-U.S. sentiment.
Modi has called for a cease-fire in Ukraine, without condemning Russia’s attacks. His political opponents say that doesn’t go far enough as they point towards India’s actions.
The actions that India has taken so far do not reflect any remorse or even mild criticism of the events in Ukrainian, says a political economist affiliated with the opposition Indian National Congress party. It seems to aid and abet.
India’s economy has grown quickly in the past. India is expected to grow 6.8% this year, which is more than the United States’ 1.6%. India is predicted to be third-fastest growing economy in the world by the year 2030.
It’s the third- largest consumer of oil. And it needs even more to fuel all that growth. But because India has few oil and gas reserves of its own, most of the oil it needs has to be imported. It’s a poor country that is sensitive to price.
Indian officials said that it was their job to find bargains for their citizens. Jaishankar has said that it’s hypocritical of wealthier Americans to ask them not to.
Europe has reduced its imports of Russian gas while doing it in a way that is comfortable, according to Jaishankar. “At 60,000 euros or whatever is your per capita income, you’re so caring about your population. I have a population at 2,000 dollars [per capita annual income]. I am not in a position to pay high oil prices because I also need energy.
The assistant secretary of State for Energy Resources said that Washington was comfortable with India’s approach to Russian oil. Karen Donfried, the assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, stated that the U.S. is not looking at sanctions against India.
One possible reason for Washington changing their mind is because India is buying Russian crude at deep discounts, something the West can’t do because of sanctions. India then makes and sells the same Russian oil to the US and Europe. The West gets oil from Russia, without having to clean it up.
The Russian-made aircraft are being replaced by French, Israeli and American versions. But it’s a time-consuming and costly task to update India’s entire arsenal, Pande notes.
“Let’s just go to the [Indian] Air Force. Most of the fighter aircraft are referred to as flying coffins. Very often Indian pilots die when they are testing, or flying, those,” says Aparna Pande, a political scientist at the Hudson Institute in Washington. India knows they need to be replaced.
Indian defense experts may have been the only ones not surprised to see Russian tanks falling apart in Ukraine this past year, Pande says. They’ve been unhappy with Russian equipment for years.
Russia “is no longer a reliable weapons supplier” and Indian representatives are “coming to understand that there could be real benefits for them (in finding other markets),” the official told reporters in New York.
India’s biggest foreign policy preoccupation is not Ukraine or Russia. It’s China. Two countries have a border that spans more than 2,000 miles. Satellite imagery shows China may be encroaching on Indian territory. There were battles there in June 2020, and again in December.
So even if Washington doesn’t like it, Biden administration officials say they understand why India has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and they’re willing to grant India a wide berth.
Russia is unable to honor its arms delivery commitments to India because of the war in Ukraine, the Indian Air Force (IAF) said, placing a potential strain on New Delhi’s relationship with its largest defense supplier as Moscow attempts to ramp up weapons production.
The admission, published in a report by India’s lower house of parliament on Tuesday, is the first official confirmation by Indian authorities amid swirling rumors and reports in local media suggesting shortcomings in Russian capacity.
The S-400 Triumf air defense system India bought for $5.4 billion is the biggest ongoing delivery. Three of these systems have been delivered and two more are awaited, Reuters reported.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that a large-scale effort to produce more weapons for the war was needed.
Putin’s order also followed repeated complaints by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin that his mercenaries were not receiving sufficient munitions in their prolonged battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut.
I Air Force: How serious is Russia? Comment on Observer Research Foundation Vice-President of Studies and External Policy, Xi Jinping,
The admission by the I Air Force is very serious according to the vice President of studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation.
As Putin continues his aggression, driving food and fuel prices to soar, experts have suggested Moscow’s actions in Ukraine could be testing New Delhi’s patience.
And the Indian Air Force going public about Russia’s arms delivery failure could be a sign of that strain, said Pant, from the Observer Research Foundation.