The Cost of Chaos: CNN and the War on Higgs Bosons and the Ground-Based Detection of Russian Symmetry Breaking

Editor’s Note: Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst, a vice president at New America and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. Bergen wrote the book “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” His own views are expressed in this commentary. View more opinion on CNN.

And it reminded me that when my father, Tom Bergen, was a lieutenant in the US Air Force in the mid-1950s, he worked on a program to help send balloons into Soviet airspace.

In 1955 he was assigned to Headquarters Air Material Command at Wright-Patterson. There was a project he worked on called the “Grand Union”, where balloons were deployed to bring cameras to the Soviet Union. Those spy balloons were launched from Turkey.

The program that my dad worked on was a secret, so he didn’t discuss it much, but in the last 70 years it has been declassified.

The Pentagon isn’t looking too hard to shoot down a balloon, but it may explain a report on Maxar Technologies

The new method is important due to the fact that balloons are extremely hard to track without it, they are slow moving, and can fly high, and can evade the more traditional radars that are oriented toward detecting fast- moving missiles.

The United States and its competitors have spy satellites that can take photos. They can make a full-motion video. They can take thermal imagery and see people at night. When the skies are clear, they can spy on pretty much anything, with a resolution of centimeters.

Indeed, commercial satellite imagery is now getting so inexpensive that you can go out and buy your own close-up images of, say, a Russian battle group in Ukraine. Just ask Maxar Technologies; they have built up a rather profitable business on this model, which was just acquired two months ago for $6 billion by a private equity firm.

The US shooting down the balloon caused Beijing to accuse the US of violating international practice and overreacting. China reserves the right to use needed means to deal with similar situations according to the Defense Ministry.

But it may help explain, at least in part, an element of a little-noticed report published by the US Office of Director of National Intelligence last month.

But that does not mean officials are suggesting that the objects are unexplainable in nature or related to an unexplained aerial phenomenon, which are unlikely to be of alien origin. At least two high-ranking US officials used the term “balloon” to describe the latest interlopers, but the Pentagon does not like that term.

U.S. Observations of the F-35 Shoot Down: What Happened When China Was Overflowing with a Weather Balloon?

But China has arguably done much worse. US officials have accused it of benefiting from the work of hackers who stole design data about the F-35 fighter aircraft as China builds its own new generation of fighters – and of sucking up much of the personal information of more than 20 million Americans who were current or former members of the US government when they reportedly got inside the computers of the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) in 2015. China called the F-35 theft report “baseless” and denied responsibility for the OPM hacking.

A State Department official said that the Biden administration is reaching out to countries directly about the scope of the program, noting that China has overflown these surveillance balloons over 40 countries across five continents.

Roughly half a dozen of those flights have been within US airspace – although not necessarily over US territory, according to one official familiar with the intelligence.

Weather balloon flights can be discounted from the list of those shot down, as long as they aren’t in the air at 12 km altitudes. But that still leaves plenty unaccounted for worldwide. Robert Rohde, a scientist with the environmental non-profit organization Berkeley Earth, says there are flights every day. I believe the shoot down is related to one of those categories.

The link to the broader surveillance program, which was uncovered before the latest balloon was spotted last week, was first reported by the Washington Post.

Meanwhile at a government lab in Quantico, Virginia, an elite team of FBI engineers is poring over the remnants of the recovered balloon, trying to learn everything it can about the intelligence it may have gathered and how best to track surveillance balloons in the future.

Defense officials say that the US gleaned important clues to the answers of some of these questions while the balloon was transiting the United States.

The biggest unanswered question, officials say, remains China’s intent. China continues to argue that the vessel was a weather balloon that drifted off-course and that its path over the United States was an accident. Officials have acknowledged that this type of balloon has only limited steering capabilities and largely rode the jet stream.

But some observers of elite Chinese politics remain skeptical that Xi would have been unaware of a balloon dispatched to US airspace or that lower-level officials would conduct such a mission that could impact US-China relations without his knowledge.

The team consists of agents, analysts, engineers, and scientists who are responsible for both creating and analyzing technical measures for the US to use against its adversaries.

OTD personnel, for example, construct surveillance devices used by FBI and intelligence community personnel targeting national security threats — but they also are responsible for managing court-authorized data collection and work to defeat efforts by foreign intelligence agencies to penetrate the US.

But, according to one member of the House Intelligence Committee, “there’s number of reasons why we wouldn’t do that. We want to collect off it, you want to see where it’s going and what it’s doing.

A defense official said the US has procedures – akin to a kind of digital blackout – to protect sensitive locations from overhead surveillance, typically used for satellite overflight.

U.S. response to the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon which was shot down on Saturday over the Atlantic Ocean and its diplomatic relations with China

The US Navy released photos Tuesday of its recovery effort of a suspected Chinese spy balloon, which US fighter jets shot down over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday.

The commander of Northern Command and NORAD told reporters that the balloon was about 200 feet tall and weighed more than a thousand pounds.

If the balloon path really was a mistake, then it is the latest in a long line of military balloons which have been blown over by anything from breezes to gales.

It is a good idea to picture yourself with a lot of debris falling out of the sky. That’s really what we’re kind of talking about,” VanHerck said on Monday. Even if the balloon had been present, it would have been impossible to use explosives to destroy it because it was made of glass off of solar panels.

The time frame that was given to assess what they were doing was well worth the investment, VanHerck said.

“The Chinese side has repeatedly informed the US side after verification that the airship is for civilian use and entered the US due to force majeure – it was completely an accident,” another statement from the Foreign Ministry said.

The situation resulted in a postponed visit for Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing, which had been expected to happen within days of the balloon’s sighting.

China said on Monday that it owned the balloon, which it had deviated from its flight course by mistake.

Mao Ning said on Monday that China is a responsible country. “We have always strictly abided by international law. We handled the situation in an appropriate way, which did not cause any threats to any countries.

State and Pentagon response to the China balloon operation: “It’s gonna get better, but I’m afraid it won’t happen”

But senior Biden officials faced pointed questions on Capitol Hill from lawmakers in public hearings and classified briefings as Congress is demanding more information about why the balloon wasn’t shot down sooner.

An official said the Chinese balloon was operating with electronic surveilance technology and that it could monitor US communications.

Lawmakers were told Thursday that the order to send the balloon was dispatched without Chinese President Xi Jinping’s knowledge, sources familiar with the briefing said.

One official said that only theopy itself, the wiring, and a small amount of electronics were found on the surface of the ocean. Analysts have not yet seen the load, which is where you would expect to find the lion’s share of electronics.

“We did not assess that it presented a significant collection hazard beyond what already exists in actionable technical means from the Chinese,” said Gen. Glenn VanHerck, the commander of US Northern Command and NORAD, on Monday.

The officials told lawmakers that the US has assessed that little new intelligence was gleaned by the Chinese balloon operation because the Chinese appeared to stop transmitting information once the US learned of the balloon, in addition to US measures to protect sensitive intelligence from China’s spying operations, according to the sources.

The sources said that the briefings Thursday morning were tense and several Republicans railing against the administration, including one who said that the Pentagon made the president look weak.

The Pentagon said that they were able to mitigate in real time, but I believe it to be true, said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat.

The administration, the president, and our military and intelligence agencies acted with care. At the same time, their capabilities are extraordinarily impressive. Is everything done correctly? I can’t imagine that would be the case of almost anything we do. Romney said that he came away with more confidence.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spy-balloon-technology/index.html

The Defense Department has no military threat, but the Pentagon is concerned about what the balloon mission might tell them about the situation in the early 1900s

At an Appropriations Committee hearing on Thursday Senators pressed defense officials on how the military could say that China was not a military threat.

“You guys have to help me understand why this baby wasn’t taken out long before and because I am telling you that that this ain’t the last time. We’ve [seen] brief incursions, now we’ve seen a long incursion, what happens next?,” said Tester, the chairman of the Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee.

“We don’t understand because quite frankly, we have been briefed in his committee over and over and over again, about the risks that China poses, both economically and militarily,” he said. China pushes the envelope until a line is set down.

Pentagon officials said at the hearing that the Defense Department was not concerned about the balloon gathering intelligence over Alaska as it was not near sensitive sites.

The portion of the balloon recovered on the surface of the ocean have been delivered so far, while the pieces of the balloon that went down have been complicated by bad weather.

It’s not yet clear where the balloon’s parts were manufactured, the officials said, including whether any of the pieces were made in America. Because analysts have yet to look at the bulk of the equipment on the balloon, the officials said that there has not been a determination as to everything the device was capable of doing and its specific intent.

Of the small portion they have examined, analysts have not identified any sort of explosive or “offensive material” that would pose a danger to the American public.

There was English writing on parts of the balloon that were found, one of the sources familiar with the congressional briefings said, though they were not high-tech components. The source declined to provide detail on what specific parts of the balloon contained English writing.

The official said that they had no explanation for why the second balloon violated the airspace of Central and South American countries. The PRC’s program will make it harder for them to use it.

The Biden officials believed that senior leadership of the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party, including Xi, did not know about the balloon mission over the US, a source told Congress.

According to CNN, the assessment was delivered to American legislators in briefings and could point towards a lack of coordination within the Chinese system at a fraught time of US-China relations.

It could mean that despite the fact that a senior US diplomat had been invited to Beijing to help ease strains, the Chinese leadership underestimated the potential seriousness of the mission and the possibility that it would endanger the visit.

Beijing, in a statement last weekend, appeared to link the device to “companies,” rather than the government or military – though in China the prominence of state-owned enterprises and a robust military-industrial complex blurs the line between the two.

The lack of authority to lower levels is the main problem with centralization of power, as claimed by a research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Lower-level officials may not be able to make political decisions about the impact of such missions if they don’t have the capacity to do so. Power struggles between lower and higher ranking officials could also complicate communication, he said.

He said that there is a tension throughout the Chinese system, where lower levels fight for their own autonomy and upper levels fight for greater control.

Past crises in China have pointed to these tensions, including the outbreaks of both SARS in 2002-2003 and more recently Covid-19, where reporting delays were widely seen as having slowed the response and compounded the problem. Some blamed local officials who feared repercussions, or were accustomed to a system where information flows from the top down, not the bottom up.

Balloon launches could also fall into a gap that operations were not managed or overseen in the same way as other aircraft missions, according to a political scientist.

There is a chance that entities launching balloons could have received little or no resistance from other countries including the United States, as well as the possibility that such launches would be routine based on weather conditions and at modest costs.

He said that the leaders of the programs were likely to get top priority attention because they didn’t have a focus on political risk.

High-Altitude Balloons as a Communication Device for Public Policy: Xi Jinping and Other Unidentified Objects

The foreign ministry released its first explanation of the incident in the morning of the 12th after the Pentagon said it was tracking a suspected balloon.

“Because of his personality, he wants 100% (control),” said Alfred Wu, an associate professor, also at the NUS Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. “I don’t think Xi Jinping allows for that kind of autonomy.”

The incident that diverted the public’s attention to a faltering economy could have been avoided if the US had responded in a more effective way.

Meanwhile, Washington may be offering its message that Xi wasn’t aware of the situation as it seeks to “continue the dialogue” started during a meeting between Xi and US President Joe Biden at the G20 summit in Bali, according to Wu.

The White House said there is no indication of alien activity even though there have been questions and concerns.

The other objects have been smaller and less well-described by officials: an object “about the size of a small car” over Alaska; a small cylinder over the Yukon in Canada; and an octagonal structure with strings over Lake Huron in Michigan. All flew in commercial airspace at an altitude of around 6-12 kilometres. The US government now says the “leading explanation” is that they “could just be balloons tied to some commercial or benign purpose”.

Meteorologists launch high-altitude balloons from the United States dozens of times each day. Weather balloons are deployed almost every day from almost 900 locations around the world.

Even individual citizens can launch their own high-altitude balloon for research, educational or entertainment purposes. For example, Emily Calandrelli, an engineer and media personality, launched a sonogram of her unborn child on a high-altitude balloon in 2019 and documented the experience online. A few companies are looking at ways to use technologically advanced balloons to send paying customers high up in the air.

Here’s a look at how high-altitude balloons work, what they’re commonly used for, and how they compare with the unidentified objects in all the latest headlines.

The Shot Down of the Wallops Flight Facility by a High-Altitude Scientific Balloon and its Connection to NASA and Other Space Missions

He said that since the military is getting better at tracking these objects, we are likely to hear more about them.

The objects were taken down by military jets out of an abundance of caution because they did not pose a physical threat to people on the ground, told the assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and hemispheric affairs.

Dalton also acknowledged that high-altitude objects can be used by a range of companies, countries and research organizations for “purposes that are not nefarious, including legitimate research.”

There are many different configurations and types of high-altitude balloon, but they all function the same. Prior to launch, the balloon is partially filled with a gas, such as hydrogen or helium. After release, as the balloon climbs and the air grows thinner, the gas expands and fully inflates the balloon.

The National Weather Service said that once the mission is complete, the scientific instrument that ascends attached to a weather balloon parachutes back to the ground. NASA also states on its website that it uses a chase plane to track science balloons as they descend to ensure they land in safe locations.

The Federal Aviation Administration approves the release of balloons for authorized purposes before they ever go out. The agency can then issue a notice to air mission, or NOTAM, which alerts aircraft pilots that airspace is restricted around the area where the balloon will be deployed. Every time a rocket goes to space, a similar process happens.

Kirby stated that the objects shot down over the weekend posed a risk to airborne planes because they were found to be flying between 20,000 and 40,000 feet (6,096 and 12,192 meters).

Some scientists use much larger, longer-lasting balloons, for example to get a clear view of space, or to test instruments destined for high altitudes. NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia manages the launch of about 10–15 scientific balloons each year worldwide. These can carry around 3,000 kg, expand to be larger than a football stadium, and fly to an altitude of 37 km.

The Associated Recovery of the U.S. Aircraft after a Relativistic Space Launch and a Shot Down of the Aircraft Research Balloon

The crews have been able to recover significant debris from the site including all of the priority sensor and electronics pieces, according to U.S. Northern Command.

The use of a crane and a balloon have been used to recover the remains of the airship.

In the days leading up to that shootdown, analysts urged the Biden administration not to allow the craft to return to China, as they wanted to make sure that the U.S. gained insights from the recovered equipment.

The news of the balloon touched off an alert in the U.S. When the Pentagon said last week that a similar high-altitude balloon had been identified over Latin America, China responded by saying it was another research balloon that was badly off-course, deeming it “an unexpected, isolated incident caused by force majeure,” meaning events beyond the country’s control.

All of those objects have been described as smaller than the reputed spy balloon that triggered the initial uproar in early February. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Monday that there were ongoing operations but no debris had been recovered yet.

As for how the U.S. will handle cases of unidentified aerial objects objects in the future, Kirby said on Tuesday that the National Security Council likely will present new guidance by the end of the week.

Questions about the shot down of the balloon and the U.S. approach to other objects prompted a secret intelligence briefing for the entire Senate Tuesday morning. That session will be followed by a closed hearing by the Senate Intelligence Committee, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. ET.

High-Altitude Balloons and Their Use by Scientific Students, Governments, and Amateur Activists: The Case Against the Inflation of the French Revolution

Other balloon users include science students, companies and amateur enthusiasts. Since 2006, the company that Krueger heads has helped students and companies launch more than 1,000 high-altitude balloon missions. Student projects have included investigating whether Post-it notes are still sticky after a flight to near-space and the impacts of high-altitude radiation on blood samples.

The US Federal Aviation Administration doesn’t require tracking devices for payloads under 5.4 kg, or for launches or flight paths for such loads to be declared. But even small packages can use large balloons. If military attention is drawn to objects like that, they should be tracked as well. “I don’t feel like it’s necessary from a safety point of view, but if there’s a legitimate concern about small balloons from other states, we should probably make sure these things are identified,” says Rohde.

Generals have been put at risk, diplomatic relations strained, and millions of dollars of sensitive equipment ruined. And despite it all, nations just don’t seem to be able to let go of their balloons.

The love affair with balloons started long before airplanes took flight. As early as 1794, the French army operated balloons during the Battle of Fleurus in combat against the Austrians. President Lincoln created the balloon corps in order to surveil his enemies during the American Civil War.

Project Genetrix: Spy Balloons for Centuries the Real Enemy Is The-Wrong, and a Union General’s Story

When you’re fighting a war, perspective matters, says Tom D. Crouch, an emeritus curator at the Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum. It’s good to be able to see as much as you can behind the enemy lines when you’re in the military.

But for as long as there have been balloons, the wind has had something to say about where they fly. On April 11, 1862, a Union general named Fitz John Porter got lost in the mists of the siege and began drifting towards the Confederates. Marksmen took a few potshots at the bobbing general as he floated over the enemy, Crouch says. “Fortunately, the winds shifted, and they were blown back over the Union lines.”

“You would take special cameras, attach them to high-altitude balloons, set them adrift in Western Europe and let them drift over the Soviet Union,” says Stephen Schwartz, a non-resident senior fellow at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Schwartz says that the goal was to collect intel on nuclear weapons in the Soviet homeland. “We were terrified that the Soviet Union was going to unleash a surprise attack and we didn’t know what they were really capable of, so any useful information would have been helpful,” he says.

Project Genetrix was a top-secret program that ended these efforts. Starting in January of 1956, the U.S. government began releasing dozens of high-altitude balloons from airbases in Germany and Turkey.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/17/1157589985/militaries-have-sought-to-use-spy-balloons-for-centuries-the-real-enemy-is-the-w

The “Disaster” of the Balloons: Tom Crouch’s View of U.S. Missions in the Cold War

“It was essentially a disaster,” Schwartz says. And once again, the wind was to blame: “You had no idea where the balloons were going, so it was just hit or miss as to what you would see.”

Tom Crouch says that the balloons weren’t very stealthy. U.S. intelligence “hoped that they could get by without the Soviets noticing,” he says. “That didn’t happen.”

The air force tried to solve the problems with more balloons. “They launched them in very large numbers, hoping that a significant number would get through,” Crouch says.