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A top Ukrainian official is hoping for a peace summit with Russia by the end of February

NPR: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/19/1158184942/4-takeaways-from-this-years-important-munich-security-conference

U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine and the Crimes of Terrorism: The Case of Volodymyr Zelensky

President Joe Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday after a deluge of Russian missiles targeted cities across Ukraine, condemning the strikes and pledging continued US security assistance “including advanced air defense systems.”

He said the Crimes against humanity determinations are reserved for the most egregious crimes. The extent to which Moscow has hurt the Ukrainian population is underscored by today’s determination. The deep commitment that the United States has to holding Russia’s forces and other Russian officials accountable for the atrocities they committed against the people of Ukranian is reflected in this determination.

A senior administration official said they had no decisions to make but that the US will provide Ukraine with short- and long-range air defense systems.

As of a Department of Defense briefing in late September, the US had yet to deliver NASAMS to Ukraine. At the time, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said two systems were expected to be delivered in the next two months, with the remaining six to arrive at an undetermined date.

According to a post on the website, the General Staff of the armed forces of Ukraine, Russia launched 84 cruise missiles against targets across the country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the strikes were a response to what he described as acts of “terrorism” by Kyiv. Specifically, he referred to Saturday’s explosion on the Kerch Bridge linking Russia and Crimea – which he blamed on Ukraine’s “special services” – and a list of other alleged “crimes.”

Kuleba said that such claims were “nonsense,” writing in a tweet, “Putin is desperate because of battlefield defeats and uses missile terror to try to change the pace of war in his favor.” In a statement the defense intelligence agency of Ukraine claimed Russia was planning a massive missile attack on their country.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, also recently said he thinks Moscow should aim for the “complete dismantling” of Zelensky’s “regime.”

John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said Monday that there will likely be additional support packages for Ukraine announced “in the very near future.”

“It’s clear that he’s feeling the pressure both at home and overseas, and how he reacts to that only he can say,” Kirby told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on “Erin Burnett OutFront.”

Last week, Biden delivered a stark warning about the dangers of Putin’s nuclear threats, invoking the prospect of “Armageddon.” The comment was not the result of any new intelligence about Putin’s intentions or Russia’s nuclear posture according to multiple US officials.

Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has led a push to get a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine during his time in office.

“The Ukrainians have made clear their belief that this war will ultimately end at the negotiating table. The Russians occasionally have voiced that same sentiment,” Price said, before laying the burden of proof on Putin.

Milley wants peace, just as Ukraine takes back the city of Kherson. In comments at the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday, Milley praised the Ukrainian army for fighting Russia to a stalemate, but said that an outright military victory is out of reach.

The comments left administration officials unsurprised – given Milley’s advocacy for the position internally – but also raised concerned among some about the administration appearing divided in the eyes of the Kremlin.

While some Biden officials are more open to exploring what diplomacy may look like, sources tell CNN most of the top diplomatic and national security officials are wary of giving Russian President Vladimir Putin any sort of leverage at the negotiating table and believe Ukrainians must determine when to hold talks, not the US.

In internal deliberations, officials said Milley has sought to make it clear that he is not urging a Ukrainian capitulation, but rather that he believes now is an optimal time to drive toward an end to the war before it drags into spring or beyond, leading to more death and destruction without changing the front lines.

It is a view not held by many in the administration. The State Department is not on the same side of the pole as Milley. There is a situation where military brass are pushing for diplomacy more than US diplomats.

As the US military has dug deep into its arms inventories to support the Ukrainians and is currently looking to the world for more supplies to support them, officials are worried about how long this war will last.

The US plans to buy 100,000 rounds of weaponry from South Korea in order to give to Ukraine in the fight against the Russians, according to a US official. As part of the deal, the US will purchase 100,000 rounds of 155mm howitzer ammunition, which will then be transferred to Ukraine through the US.

Ned Price and the US-Zelensky War on the Crimes of Crime in Ukraine (and America’s War with Ukraine)

Ned Price wouldn’t say if the State Department agreed with Milley’s position. Instead, Price deflected to a position that US officials have often made in recent months: the US sides with Zelensky who has said that a diplomatic solution is needed.

“The onus remains on Moscow to demonstrate not only through word but also in deed that it is ready to negotiate, it is ready to meet what the world has very clearly heard from our Ukrainian partners, and that they are ready and willing to sit down and engage in good faith.”

“The United States is going to be with Ukraine for as long as it takes in this fight,” Sullivan said in a recent visit to Ukraine. We will not be wavering, we will not flinch, and there will be no sacrificing our support as we go forward.

She said Zelenskys historic address strengthened both Democrats and Republicans because they are aware of what is at stake in the fight against Putin and Russia and now with their ally, Iran.

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

On the 301st day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s spokesman claimed that the new equipment would not prevent Russia from achieving its goals or bring the conflict closer to an end.

As the war between Russia and Ukraine moves in the opposite direction, Clinton said the leader was unlikely to be predicted.

“I think around now, what [Putin] is considering is how to throw more bodies, and that’s what they will be – bodies of Russian conscripts – into the fight in Ukraine,” Clinton said.

The Kremlin was quick to criticize Zelenskyy’s trip after he returned from Washington, D.C.

The White House claims that the US has given $30 million in support of the investigation of war crimes in Ukraine. The Biden administration is looking for Congress to spend another $30 million on this issue.

He said there had been no calls for peace or signs of willingness to “listen to Russia’s concerns” during Zelenskyy’s visit, which he said proves that the U.S. is fighting a proxy war with Russia “to the last Ukrainian,” Reuters reports.

This is not the first time Russia has accused Western nations of turning the conflict into a proxy war by supplying Ukraine with weapons. Iran admitted that it gave military drones to Russia.

The Kremlin has also been selling that line to the Russian public, who is largely buying it, says Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“You could say that the majority of Russian people, although they are weary of the conflict, they still see this as an existential struggle between Russia and the West in which Ukraine is being played for a pawn,” he tells NPR’s Morning Edition.

“Ukrainians will benefit from the patriot’s defensive weapons system as Russia sends missiles and drones to destroy their infrastructure and kill their people,” she said. Russia should stop sending missiles to Ukraine if they don’t want them shot down.

Kiev is preparing to present its peace proposal for Ukraine: Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tells Munich Security Conference ‘The War is a War’

Beijing is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine, its top diplomat announced Saturday at the Munich Security Conference, in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as a war.

If Russia faced a war crimes tribunal first, they could only be invited to the summit, said Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

Kuleba said he was “really satisfied” with the results of Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S., and also revealed that the U.S. government had a special plan to get the battery ready to be operational. Training can take a year.

Kuleba said in the interview that diplomacy plays an important role, adding that Ukraine will do whatever it can to win the war in 2023.

The UN could be the best place for the summit, because it is not about favouring one country over another. “This is about getting everyone on board.”

Zelenskyy presented a 10-point peace formula for the Group of 20, which includes the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners and a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression.

Kuleba said that he is an efficient Mediator and an efficient Negotiation, and most importantly, a man of principle and integrity. We would love for him to participate.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145539638/ukraine-russia-peace-summit-foreign-minister

Zelenskyy’s First International Trip to the U.S. Since the War Ends: How Ukrainians are Important to the United States

He said that the people frequently say that they are ready for negotiations, but that is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield shows the opposite.

Zelenskyy’s trip to the U.S. was his first international trip since the war began. Kuleba highlighted the significance of the visit.

“This shows how both the United States are important for Ukraine, but also how Ukraine is important for the United States,” said Kuleba, who was part of the delegation to the U.S.

He said that the Missile battery training program was expedited so that it did not damage the weapon’s quality on the battlefield.

It will be less than six months, Kuleba said without mentioning a specific time frame. He said that the training would be done outside of Ukraine.

Kuleba has been second to Zelenskyy in carrying the message of the Ukrainian government during the war in Russia.

On Monday, Ukraine urged the U.N. members to exclude Russia from the world body and to remove it from the Security Council. Kuleba said they have long “prepared for this step to uncover the fraud and deprive Russia of its status.”

The Foreign Ministry said that Russians did not go through legal procedures to join the UN Security Council after the fall of the Soviet Union.

When the US government declared that Russia had committed war crimes last March, it was unclear if Russian President Vladimir Putin would be held responsible.

Russian forces have been attacking a civilian population with a wide range of crimes including murder, torture, rape, and deportation. Execution-style killings, beating and electrocution She said that was what she added. “Russian authorities have forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of people from Ukraine to Russia, including children. They separated children from their families.

While the latest crimes against humanity determination is significant, it remains largely symbolic for now. It doesn’t give the US the ability to prosecute the Russians for perpetrating crimes against humanity, but it does set in motion some kind of consequences. It could give international bodies such as the International Criminal Court evidence to try to prosecute crimes.

US Justice and Crimes Against Crime: Interaction with NATO, Ukraine, and the Crimes of Crime against Humanity in the Second World War

Harris said that she knew the importance of gathering facts and holding them up against the law when she was a prosecutor.

As the war enters its second year, it remains to be seen whether dialogue with President Vladimir Putin will be possible at next year’s conference. Vice President Harris announced Saturday that the US will be trying Russian leaders for crimes against humanity.

“In the face of these indisputable facts, to all of us here in Munich, let us renew our commitment to accountability. She said that it was time to renew our commitment to the rule of law. “As for the United States, we will continue to support the judicial process in Ukraine and international investigations because justice must be served. Let us all agree, on behalf of all the victims, known and unknown: Justice must be served.”

Questions have swirled in recent months about how much more funding the US will provide to Ukraine’s war effort, now that Republicans are in charge of the US House of Repsentatives and have promised no “blank checks.” Harris noted that there were a lot of congressional leaders at the conference. This included House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Republicans such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.

“They are here together because they understand the stakes. The leadership of these members has been vital to America’s support of Ukraine, and President Biden and I know that their support for Ukraine will continue,” the vice president said.

“Any peace has to be consistent with the principles of the United Nations Charter. It’s against the interests of every other country around the world to wind up with a result like that, and it’s against them to know that that’s what they were trying to do.

If Russia is allowed to escape, everyone will conclude that they can get away with it and thus open a Pandora’s box around the world. It isn’t in anyone’s interest because it’s a recipe for a world of conflict

Also in Munich, CIA Director Bill Burns said Saturday that intelligence sharing with NATO allies has proved essential to supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.

It is a two-way street. We’ve learned a lot from our NATO partners. We learn a lot from the Ukrainians as well,” Burns said in a separate panel discussion. That has been the kind of essential cement that the president has organized, he said.

She said, “Any step by China to give lethal support to Russia would reward aggression, continue the killing and further undermine a rules-based order.”

CNN has reported that China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, will visit Russia this month, according to its Foreign Ministry, in the first visit to the country from a Chinese official in that role since Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.

European Union leaders are wary of Beijing’s intentions as Wang said European countries should change their approach to the war.

And European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen told CNN on Saturday: “We need more proof that China isn’t working with Russia, and we aren’t seeing that now.”

In September 2022, Putin admitted that Beijing had concerns over the invasion and that he had diverging views on the war.

The Davos of Defense: The First High-level Security Conference Presented by the U.S. in the Light of Russia’s Invasion

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday issued a supporting statement saying the U.S. will work to hold those responsible to account, while emphasizing the importance of this designation. Blinken is attending the meeting.

Ukraine is not a state party to treaty that established the International Criminal Court (ICC). But the country has exercised its rights to accept the court’s jurisdiction over alleged war crimes occurring within its borders. The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court was going to seek authorization to investigate alleged war crimes inUkraine just after Russia’s invasion.

The first high-level meeting between the US and China since the U.S. shot down an alleged Chinese balloon took place on the last night of the conference.

The U.S. remains concerned about Beijing invading Taiwan and about its blossoming relationship with Moscow. The relationship between Beijing and Washington has deteriorated after the “balloon-gate” incident.

Beijing, however, insists that the balloon was a civilian craft used for scientific research, and that shooting it down was an overreaction and a violation of international practice.

Dubbed the Davos of Defense, the Munich Security Conference attracts heads of state, generals, intelligence chiefs and top diplomats from around the world.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine set the tone of the three-day conference by urging Western leaders to act rather than talk, calling via videolink for the speedy deliveries of weapons and warning of dwindling supplies on the battleground.

Pre-World Warfare Efforts in Europe and Beyond: China, the United States, NATO and the Second Order Articles of the U.S.

This year, the U.S. made its presence at the gathering felt with a record number of delegates, including significant bipartisan and bicameral representation from Congress.

But with delegations attending from every continent, beyond Europe and the members of NATO, broader geopolitical issues were at play, both on the conference stage and on the sidelines.

The Secretary of State said at the conference that they reserve crimes against humanity determinations for the most egregious crimes.

Wang insisted that peace in Ukraine and elsewhere in the world is Beijing’s top foreign policy priority, as is respect for the sovereignty of independent nations. Within the same breath, he warned against international interference on the issue of Taiwan. Wang said that it was in their interests to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait.

While Wang Yi called for peace in Ukraine – without elaborating how to achieve it or what peace in the region means – Europe’s leaders committed to investing more in weapons.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said member states must work together with the defense industry to scale up the production of munitions for Ukraine which, according to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, is using them quicker than Europe can replace them.

The Chancellor of Germany asked his European partners to deliver battle tanks to Ukraine without delay. Scholz joked during the Q&A that he was having to tell others to deliver Leopard tanks quickly after they’d pressured him to do so in the past.

Scholz’s new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius continued in the same vein and pushed for higher military spending within Europe and NATO. He went one step further than Scholz’s promise to meet the NATO target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, and called on the NATO alliance to agree on 2% as a minimum commitment, aiming for higher. Germany currently doesn’t meet the 2% target and is unlikely to do so for another two years, despite Scholz’s additional 100 billion boost to the budget.

Scholz remained tight-lipped about requests from Ukraine to send fighter jets, having publicly said no on several occasions. He said Germany’s support for Kyiv is resolute but warned against hasty decisions and the dangers of escalation.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/19/1158184942/4-takeaways-from-this-years-important-munich-security-conference

Vladimir Putin isn’t going to invade Ukraine: A warning from the Kremlin on a conference podium for Russian propaganda

Prominent Kremlin critics — including exiled oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, chess champion Gary Kasparov, and Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of jailed opposition political Alexey Navalny — were pointedly offered seats instead.

The conference promotes dialogue even between adversaries, but is not known for it’s usefulness as a podium for Russian propaganda.

In an interview this week, Heusgen admitted to believing that Russia wouldn’t invade Ukraine and leaving last year’s conference. The invasion began four days later.

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