What will Israel do if the Palestinians are willing to fight Hamas in the First Stage of the 2023 Israeli-Palestinian War?
The deal was brokered by U.S., Egypt andQatar and comes after a number of intensive rounds of negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Envoys from both President Biden’s administration and President-elect Trump’s team were also there, pressuring the sides to close a deal.
I’ve just been told that there is a ceasefire in Gaza. We are all going to want to see how well that performs before we celebrate.
In the first phase, lasting six weeks, Hamas promises to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for a far greater number of Palestinian detainees. It is not clear how many people are involved, since the group has not said how many are still alive. Israel believes most are. The total number of Palestinians released from Israeli custody is expected to be around 1,000, according to a Palestinian official who was not authorized to speak to the media.
When Hamas launched its Oct. 7, 2023, attack against Israel, it had hoped to ignite a regional war that would draw in its allies and lead to Israel’s destruction. Instead, it has been left to fight Israel almost entirely alone. Its allies have been decimated in Lebanon, toppled in Syria and weakened in Iran. Israel has been the target of most of the attacks by the Houthis in Yemen.
In Gaza, the military campaign launched by Israel resulted in multiple setbacks for Hamas, including the death of the group’s top leadership and the destruction of its tunnel network.
If the full, multistage agreement is carried out, it could allow Hamas to regain its control over Gaza or at least allow it to remain influential in the territory. Analysts connected to Hamas believe that Israel will struggle to resume the war in the face of international pressure, and that Hamas will play an important role in the future of Gaza.
“Hamas will be present in every detail in Gaza,” said Ibrahim Madhoun, an analyst close to the militant group who is based in Turkey. If you try to ignore Hamas, it will be like burying your head in the sand.
Mr. Madhoun acknowledged that there had been losses, but said the military wing of Hamas had recruited new people to replace those killed. The US secretary of state has said that Hamas has brought in more new fighters than it has lost in the war.