The Attack of April 12, 2011 on Israel: An Israeli embassy in Tel Aviv, Israel, claimed by a student at the Institute for National Strategic Studies
American officials have been analyzing the possibilities of a missile exchange between Iran and Israel. The most optimistic prediction has been a repeat of what happened in April, when the United States, Israel, Jordan and others intercepted almost all of the hundreds of missiles and drones fired toward Israel.
Afterward, President Biden urged Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel to “take the win,” and Israel’s response was muted: While it fired at an air base in Isfahan, a city surrounded by some of Iran’s significant nuclear facilities, it avoided hitting the facilities themselves. The message, though, was clear: Next time, they could aim for assets Iran prizes.
The American officials believe that there are more severe scenarios being explored which involve Israel striking at the nuclear facilities, particularly at the Natanz enrichment sites. According to American officials, Iran could make bomb- grade plutonium from its near bomb-grade nuclear material in days or weeks. It would take far longer to produce a nuclear weapon.
According to a researcher at the Institute for National Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, Israel, Iran used 100 missiles and 200 drones when it attacked Israel in April. Fighter jets shot down the drones and cruise missiles, leaving the missiles for Arrow.
The attack caused minor damage at one military base and shrapnel seriously injured a 7-year-old girl from an Arab Bedouin community in southern Israel.
Iran’s Air Defense Systems Under Attack After the April 22nd Atrocity: Analysis of an Air Defense System at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy senior fellow Grant Rumley said that Iran would likely use a mixture of drones, cruise missiles and missiles to repeat the April attack. “This time, it’s clear Iran wanted to avoid the failures of April by primarily using ballistic missiles, he said, “which travel much faster and can quickly overwhelm an air defense system.”
Unlike the April attack where Israel had days of warning to coordinate defenses with their allies in the region, Tuesday’s attack came with only hours of advance notice.
Despite the attempt to control escalation, Israel is likely to respond with force, says Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He states that an air defense radar was knocked out after the April attack on Iran. That limited attack was designed to send a message: “The Israelis can penetrate Iranian airspace, they’ve demonstrated that time and time again,” he says. “They can bring the hurt to Iran.”
The strike also appeared to largely avoid civilian areas. The only publicly acknowledged death from the attack so far was a Palestinian man in the West Bank who was apparently struck by a falling missile body. No one was hurt at the school in central Israel.
Lewis thinks the latest strike by Iran was designed to show some restraint. He points to air bases as being the sites of last week’s attacks on Hezbollah’s leadership. He says that it is typical for Iranians to pick military targets related to the military strike that they are responding to.
Iran used new solid-propellant missiles that are more accurate in this latest attack. Lewis and other researchers say at least some of the missiles used appear to be Iran’s newest design, the Fattah, a medium-range ballistic missile that may have a degree of maneuverability as it enters the atmosphere, allowing it to alter course and avoid interceptor missiles.
Moreover, images of the missiles being fired out of Iran, together with pictures of debris that fell in Israel, suggests more sophisticated ballistic missiles were used, Lewis says.
Iran launched around 180 missiles, putting more strain on the Arrow system. “The job for the Arrow was much easier [in April],” he says.
Iranian missiles travel much higher and faster than those from Lebanon and Gaza. The missiles fly briefly into space before coming down on their targets near or at hypersonic speeds. Iron Dome has more protection than the Arrow system, which can be used for intercepting missiles in space or on the ground.
Both the U.S. and Israel downplayed the strikes. Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, said Tuesday that the attack appears to have been defeated. The U.S. said it had fired about a dozen interceptors from warships in an effort to blunt the Iranian assault.
Multiple warheads landing around a pair of Israeli air bases are shown in videos posted to social media by Bellingcat and NPR. One video filmed near Tel Nof also appeared to show possible secondary explosions, indicating that ammunition or fuel may have been struck by a missile.