Did Vladimir Putin Run Out of Fuel? And How Does Democracy Still Happen in Russia? Speaking with Mary-Louise Kelly at All Things Considered
Vladimir Putin’s regime is “running out of fuel,” and if the Russian president continues to burn through his reserves of oil and gas money, ordinary people will become a threat to his power, according to one outspoken activist.
During All Things Considered this week, Miniailo spoke to host Mary Louise Kelly, and he said that democracy can still be achieved in Russia even though the suppression of dissent won’t change that.
“As much as it is dramatic — or even tragic, as in case with Alexei’s assassination — it is not unexpected, not something that turns the table,” he said.
It was difficult because Navalny is an important symbolic figure. I mean, besides any human feelings about other human beings dying — being murdered, actually — Navalny is very important for many of us.
Kelly: This past weekend saw hundreds of people in Russia arrested, detained for protesting or simply for coming out to mourn Navalny. It has prompted fears of an even more severe dispersal of minorities prior to the presidential elections in Russia. Does this make you rethink your beliefs that a better Russia is possible?
Miniailo: Yes, that is correct. As much as leaders are important, democracy depends on regular people, on ordinary people, not just on super big figures, on symbolic figures, and on leaders of political parties or of opposition.
If we would say that, “Navalny died, so now there will be no democracy in Russia,” that means that all our job was futile, and all that Alexei did was futile. But it is not so. One thing Alexei did well was introduce a lot of people to politics. And he, for a very long time, was not some sort of solitary figure, he raised a lot of prominent political figures.
He was always making them feel better. Figures like these are important when we talk about the chance that Russia might become democratic. But ultimately, it all depends on the people.
Miniailo: It’s difficult, but that’s the way it works with the personal example. He set a personal example for a person of liberal convictions, a person of opposition conviction, that they can risk their lives and still stand up for what they believe in.
I am not saying that everyone should do this, but I do believe that such examples are very important, because they enable us to become better versions of ourselves and ultimately, to do more for democratization of Russia.
Miniailo: This is all expected. Of course, it is hard. We knew that Putin would kill his opponents more and that there would be more persecution of his opponents before the regime weakens. It all happens. It all could go further.
In a year’s time if you reach out to me about something else, you’ll be out of luck because I will be in prison or have seen something happen. But that doesn’t change the big situation, that the regime is running out of fuel. They don’t have a civilizational vision of the future, which is how the society might work, or how the society might improve the lives of the people within the empire.
So for two years it was spending around $50-$60 billion from this fund. And if this continues to the end of this year, he will run out of these extra funds. So he will have a very hard time after that financing the war and financing his repressions, which he will, of course, continue at the expense of the people.
But when he runs out of money, you will have much harder time solving these problems, which will lead to more and more people being unhappy with their regime, and that will impose a more severe threat to his power than activists laying flowers to commemorate Navalny and Boris Nemtsov.
Kelly: I want to ask about you. You are speaking to me from Moscow. You are critical of Putin and his role. How dangerous is that?
Miniailo: I don’t know. We’ll see. I’m not saying everything I believe. I somehow censor myself, but every time I’m saying something, I’m thinking, “What will be the result? Will it change anything for the better?” And then somehow try to weigh the risks as well.
The next steps of Russia: preparing for the next epoch of Russian-republican rule (or Russian-Putnam)
In the autumn of 2011, Mr. Putin announced he was going to become president once again, making it clear that he planned to rule Russia for the rest of his life. We went to an opposition conference in Moscow to plan out our next steps. We walked through the boring panels like zombies, with sad speakers, poetry readings and talks of human rights and democracy. It wasn’t inspiring because it was neither practical nor attractive. Russia needed to be free, we all believed in that. How do we get there?