The Israeli-Hamas War in the Gaza Strip: The Palestinians, the Palestinians and the State of the Public Works in the Middle East
U.S. and Arab mediators made significant progress overnight toward brokering a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and the release of scores of hostages held in the Gaza Strip, but a deal hasn’t been reached yet, officials said Monday.
An agreement was “not far away”, Majed Al Ansari, an adviser to the Qatari prime minister, told reporters. He stated that the main obstacles had been overcome and the talks now were about the final details.
There is a discussion of a phased ceasefire. Netanyahu has repeatedly signaled that he is committed only to the first phase, a partial hostage release in exchange for a weekslong halt in fighting. The first phase would lead to a negotiation of the possibility of a lasting ceasefire and other issues. Hamas has demanded a full withdrawal and complete end to the war, and is hoping that this first phase will lead to that outcome.
The agreement under discussion envisions a six-week pause in the fighting, during which 33 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and other militants in Gaza will be released, in exchange for a far greater number of Palestinian detainees, according to a formula that gives more weight to hostages who are released alive. A Palestinian official was not authorized to speak to the media, but he estimated that around 1,000 Palestinians would be released from Israeli custody.
Israel’s politics are one of the more complicating factors. A key Netanyahu ally in the Israeli Cabinet, far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is publicly opposing the deal as a “catastrophe,” arguing against releasing “arch-terrorists” and saying Israel should instead “occupy and cleanse” the entire Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu is hoping that the prospect of a Trump administration — which includes allies of the West Bank settler movement — will persuade his partners to remain in the government.
The head of Israel’s Mossad foreign intelligence agency, David Barnea, and Biden’s top Middle East adviser, Brett McGurk, were both in the Qatari capital, Doha. High-level Israeli officials who need to sign off on any agreement are once again involved in the talks because of Barnea’s presence.
McGurk has been working on final details of a text to be presented to both sides, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told CNN’s “State of the Union.” He doesn’t know whether a deal will be reached by Jan. 20.
The Israeli Campaign on the Gaza Strip During the November 2023 War and the Status of the Interaction Between Israel, the Red Cross and the Palestinians
He said that they are very close. “Yet being very close still means we’re far, because until you actually get across the finish line, we’re not there.”
Those casualties bring the total death toll during the war to more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gazan health authorities, who have not specified how many of them were combatants. They have however noted that the majority of the verified dead have been women and children. The Israeli military says that more than 400 soldiers have been killed in fighting since it invaded Gaza.
Families of the roughly 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing Netanyahu to reach a deal to bring their loved ones home. Israelis rallied again Saturday night in Tel Aviv, with photos of hostages on display.
In Gaza, Palestinians were tempering their hopes for a stop to Israel’s campaign, which has devastated much of the territory and driven around 90% of its 2.3 million people from their homes.
“We hear that there are negotiations every day, but we see nothing,” said Mazen Hammad, a resident of the southern city of Khan Younis. “When we see it on the ground, then we believe that there is a truce.”
Israel’s top security chiefs traveled to Qatar this weekend, and the president of the International Committee of the Red Cross — the group that facilitated the last hostage-prisoner exchange in November 2023, a month into the war — is visiting Israel and Gaza, meeting officials in anticipation of a new deal.
Yet Israel has its own reasons to cooperate with Trump on expediting a deal: it wants his help pursuing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia and his support for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear program.
A Hamas official, who was not authorized to speak to the media, told NPR that Hamas is seeking to demonstrate flexibility by proposing several possible options to resolve each point of contention.
Qaddura Fares, who heads the main advocacy group in the Israeli-occupied West Bank for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, and who is in Qatar on the sidelines of the talks, told NPR that Israel is discussing the release of three groups of prisoners.
A Comprehensive Agreement between Israel and Hamas in the First Phase of the 2023-27 Israeli-Second Israeli-Hamas War
“I think there’s a certain fear of the unknown, in terms of what the new administration will do and will say,” Lew said. “There’s no daylight between the incoming administration and the outgoing administration in terms of wanting a hostage deal now and pressing all parties to make the concessions that are appropriate to reach that.”
President-elect Trump has repeatedly warned that if the hostages captured from Israel by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7, 2023, and held in Gaza aren’t released by his inauguration, there would be “hell to pay.”
Some families of the remaining hostages are concerned that there will be less pressure to release their relatives in the first phase. They have been lobbying for a comprehensive agreement that ends the war and secures the release of all hostages.
Large sections of the public in both Israel and Gaza are tired of the conflict and will be happy if an agreement is reached to end it. Some members of the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government are against the agreement because they want to prevent a repeat of a deadly attack on Israel by Hamas in October of 2023.
A further round of negotiations will begin 16 days into that first phase of the agreement, about further withdrawals of Israeli troops from Gaza, although the Israeli official said a full withdrawal would not happen until all hostages are fully released.
The first exchange of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages is expected to happen on the same day. The two sides are also talking about arrangements to allow displaced Palestinians in the south of Gaza to return to their homes in the north.
The deal is likely to be challenged in the Israeli Supreme Court, as it would need to be approved by the Israeli full Cabinet and government. So it may be days before the terms are implemented.
He didn’t say much about the impending agreement. But an Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks, outlined some of the key provisions.
After more than fifteen months of fighting in their most devastating war ever, Israel and Hamas are extremely close to agreeing to a ceasefire, according to officials involved in the talks.