The Conversation between the U.S. and China After the 2016 Midterm Elections: The Case for a Better Prediction from a Democracy Point of View
Ghitis was a former CNN producer and correspondent. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views that are expressed are of her own. View more opinion on CNN.
The talks were apparently productive. The Chinese called them “thorough, frank, and constructive.” Biden said that they would try to avoid a new Cold War but that they were very blunt with one another. It wasn’t “Kumbaya,” the President said, but the two sides are perhaps less likely to start an accidental war against each other.
Biden pointed out that the results of the elections sent a strong signal that the US will remain engaged. There was a larger message. The health of America’s democracy is the most important signal from the results of the midterms. The US elections went well and were peaceful, but at the same time they dealt a serious blow to many of the antidemocratic elements in the country.
That’s not the only reason, however, why this was the perfect moment — from the standpoint of the United States and for democracy — for this meeting to occur: There’s much more to this geopolitical moment than who controls the US House of Representatives and Senate.
Zelensky’s triumphant return to Kherson: A triumphant triumph for Putin and Xi, and the fate of his friendship with China
As Biden and Xi were meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an emotional, triumphant return to the devastated, now liberated city of Kherson, the one provincial capital that Russian invaders had conquered.
Putin might have expected a friendship that did not pan out. China is reticent in calling the Russian military campaign an invasion, and never condemns Russia’s attack on its neighbor. But China has not armed Russian forces, and has at times issued veiled warnings against Russia’s threat of using nuclear weapons.
Russia and China, the world’s top autocrats, looked unstoppable even. Protests against restrictions on Covid-19 caused instability in Western democracies. Putin was preparing for triumph in Ukraine. Xi was hosting the Olympics, basking in attention, and preparing to solidify his control of China.
TheUkrainians defended their country with unexpected gusto and as Biden rallied allies in a muscular push to support Ukraine, Putin’s adventure turned to disaster.
Tellingly, Putin chose not to attend the G20 summit in Bali, avoiding confrontations with world leaders as he increasingly becomes a pariah on the global stage.
China and the crisis in Ukraine: the role of the Xi-Jinping balloon campaign in preventing a war in the Cold War
The West could manage the relationship in a way that prevents a war with China while also achieving President Bidens efforts to compete vigorously while avoiding a war, if it chose to do so. It is an objective he reiterated on Thursday while talking about the Chinese balloon that traversed the US earlier this month.
“The policy tools Xi Jinping can use to support Russia is quite limited now, it’s quite constrained,” said Wu. “Politically, domestic support for Xi has declined dramatically. His third term does not actually start with a rosy picture.”
Also crucial in the epochal competition between the two systems is showing that democracy works, defeating efforts of autocratic countries such as China and Russia to discredit it and proving that unprovoked wars of aggression, aimed at suppressing democracy and conquering territory, will not succeed.
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are scheduled to speak Friday via video conference, the Kremlin said, with analysts watching for any sign of a softening in the Chinese leader’s support for the Russian president after more than 10 months of war in Ukraine and as China faces an unprecedented Covid outbreak.
The two leaders will primarily discuss bilateral relations between their countries, and exchange views on regional issues and their strategic partnership, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.
Beijing has pushed back on those claims, with its Foreign Ministry on Monday saying China was “actively promoting peace talks and the political settlement of the crisis,” while the US was “pouring lethal weapons into the battlefield in Ukraine.”
The world has changed since the war started, and the dynamic between the partners has changed as well.
Instead of an anticipated swift victory, Putin’s invasion has faltered with numerous setbacks on the battlefield, including a lack of basic equipment. In parts of Russia, people face economic hardship during the bitter winter.
At least three people were killed and several villages were damaged by a missile barrage from Russia on Thursday, which Ukrainian officials described as one of the biggest since the war began.
Ukrainian officials have been cautioning for days about the threat of a Russian assault on the power grid, which would cause the country to go into darkness during Christmas and the New Year.
Beijing or Russia? Confidence and Failure in the Sino-Russian Plan for a New, Better World: Wang and Wu at the Kremlin
Chinese officials have often calibrated their narrative to different audiences. Wang may have made many appealing pledges during his Europe tour, but whether they will be translated into a consistent message to be delivered to the Russian leader Vladimir Putin when the two meet at the Kremlin this week is another question.
China, too, is growing more isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.
Modi told Putin that now was not the time for war, and urged him to move toward peace.
But, experts say, China’s domestic situation has also changed significantly in the months since, which could necessitate a different approach to Putin this time around.
According to Stimson Center’s Sun, “Now with domestic affairs out of the way, Xi is in better position to work on Russia.”
High energy prices globally meant that trade between the two countries increased this year as well as the two leaders affirming their vows to cooperate economically.
It has placed the leader of the Chinese people in a more vulnerable position that might mean less material and public support for Russia.
In a show of unity, the leaders of the two nuclear powers vowed to have a relationship with “no limits.” It looked like a pivotal moment in a global realignment of power.
Both leaders have been courting autocratic regimes. Russia and China are going against one another in order to create a new alliance to take on the West. The project has faltered; it is far from a resounding success. But it is very much a work in progress.
The US should aim to make sure the creation of a credible, unified force of antidemocratic regimes is not achieved, in addition to fortifying NATO and strengthening alliances, which the President Joe Biden administration has accomplished with great success.
That means making sure that Russia doesn’t win in Ukraine, but also prying apart Moscow and Beijing (echoing then-President Richard Nixon in the 1970s) and countering China’s efforts to forge stronger bonds with Iran.
But the rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to unravel, and China had to rethink its commitment.
Is Xi in or out with Putin? It seems that Xi wants it both ways. He wants the relationship with a country that has invaded its neighbor without provocation, but he’s trying to present himself as a responsible global leader; an alternative to the democratic Western model for other countries to follow.
According to the US intelligence service, Russia has bought weapons from North Korea which denies involvement in a war that is beyond the pale.
Iran claims it sold weapons before the war began, but they didn’t end up in Ukraine. Now, newly-declassified documents show the drones in Ukraine are identical to those Iran has used in the Middle East.
Beijing’s relationship with Tehran is complicated. In December, when Xi visited Iran-foe Saudi Arabia, a joint statement after meeting with Saudi officials noted Iran’s “destabilizing regional activities” and “support for terrorist and sectarian groups,” infuriating Iran.
This week, Ebrahim Raisi became the first Iranian president to visit China in 20 years. The trip, at Xi’s invitation, ostensibly aims to implement an agreement for a 25-year strategic cooperation pact the two reached at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021.
Some Republicans in Congress fear that China’s support of Tehran could help it cheat the sanctions on its nuclear and weapons programs, as well as support to terrorism and human rights abuses.
Clearly, there’s an internal contradiction in Xi’s dual goals. It’s hard to create an alliance of rule breaking autocrats and dictators, and then expect other countries to join enthusiastically.
Beijing released a 12-point position on the political solution to the crisis in a document on Friday. The release was criticized by the Western leaders who accused China of having taken Russia’s side.
Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.
Many European Union leaders are wary of Beijing’s intentions, as Wang called on European countries to change their approach to the war.
And European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen told CNN on Saturday: “We need more proof that China isn’t working with Russia, and we aren’t seeing that now.”
In September 2022, Putin conceded Beijing had “questions and concerns” over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of diverging views on the war.
China’s top diplomat will also visit Russia this month, according to its foreign ministry, in the first visit to the country from a Chinese official in that role since the war began.
As US President Joe Biden touched down in Ukraine to meet with his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, China’s top diplomat was traveling in the opposite direction, on his way to Russia.
The two trips taking place just days before the one-year anniversary of the war underscore the sharpening of fault lines between the world’s two powers.
“We do not add fuel to the fire, and we’re against reaping benefits from this crisis,” Wang said in a thinly veiled dig at the US, echoing the propaganda messaging that regularly made China’s nightly prime-time news program – that the US is intentionally prolonging the war because its arms manufacturers are earning fat profits from weapon sales.
“Some forces might not want to see peace talks to materialize. They don’t care about the life and death of Ukrainians, nor the harm on Europe. They might have strategic goals larger than Ukraine itself. Wang said that the warfare must not continue.
He urged European officials to think about “what framework should there be to bring lasting peace to Europe, what role should Europe play to manifest its strategic autonomy.”
U.S. Response to “Biden for the Cold War” in a Brief, Long-Baseline Analysis of a Russian Foreign Minister’s Confidence Statement
The U.S. warned that China could support Russia with weapons. But there was no mention of Ukraine or weapons in the seven-minute, televised portion of Mr. Wang’s meeting with Mr. Putin on Wednesday, where Mr. Patrushev and Sergey V. Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, joined Mr. Putin around a white, oval table.
We have made clear to them that giving lethal support to them would cause a serious problem for us and our relationship in the long term, based on what we know now.
Responding to the accusations Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry blasted the US for “shoving responsibility, shifting blame and spreading false information.”
The US supplies weapons to the battlefield at a steady pace, while the Chinese don’t. The US side is not qualified to lecture China, and we would never accept them coercing or forcing change in Sino-Russian relations according to a ministry spokesman.
Is there anyone calling for dialogue and peace? And who is handing out knives and encouraging confrontation? The international community can see clearly,” the spokesperson said.
CNN reported that US officials were concerned enough with the intelligence that they shared it with their allies. In a meeting with Wang on the sidelines of the conference Saturday, Blinken raised the issue and warned Wang about its consequences, according to a US statement.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/china/ukraine-china-russia-biden-wang-yi-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html
The First Two Days of Warsaw: Beijing’s Support for Russia and the Prospects for a Stronger Sino-Russian Correspondence
Previously, Beijing had carefully avoided actions that could trigger secondary sanctions, which would deal a devastating blow to an economy hampered by three years of costly zero-Covid policy.
Beijing’s support for Moscow has not wavered over the past year even though its pro-Russian rhetoric seems to have softened in recent months.
Mr. Wang arrived in Moscow this week after a tour of Western Europe, where he sought to persuade European leaders that Beijing is not supporting Mr. Putin’s war and wants to encourage a peaceful exit from the fighting.
But even in that meeting, Mr. Wang’s published comments did not use the words war or invasion to describe the fighting in Ukraine. And while in Moscow, Mr. Wang may be even more reluctant to expose any deep differences between China and Russia.
Mr. Putin is looking to shore up alliances as the Ukraine war approaches its first anniversary and the early stages of Russia’s new offensive to swallow up territory appear to be sputtering. As Mr. Putin and Mr. Wang met, President Biden was gathering with NATO members from the alliance’s eastern flank in Warsaw in a display of unity.
In his opening remarks, Mr. Putin highlighted the economic aspect of the China-Russia relationship, predicting that the countries’ annual trade volume could reach $200 billion as early as this year, compared with $185 billion last year.
“Everything is moving forward, developing, we are reaching new frontiers,” Mr. Putin said. We are talking about economic issues.
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko meets with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in an “All-Weather Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko is scheduled to hold talks with Chinese officials in Beijing from Tuesday to Thursday at the invitation of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China’s Foreign Ministry announced Sunday.
The leaders agreed to improve their countries’ ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” after meeting on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Uzbek, which Putin also attended.
There are fears that Lukashenko’s troops will join the war in the hope that they will be used to launch another Russian offensive. Before visiting Moscow earlier this month, Lukashenko claimed there is “no way” his country would send troops into Ukraine unless it is attacked.
Lukashenko was quoted as saying in an interview with the Chinese state news agency that the China position paper was testimony to China’s peaceful foreign policy, and that a new step would have a far-reaching impact.
The European Union did not recognize the results of Lukashenko’s 2020 election win, which sparked a wave of pro-democracy protests in the country and resulted in a brutal government crackdown.
Belarus was an early joiner of China’s Belt and Road development initiative, launched a decade ago, and trade between the two last year increased 33% year-on-year to surpass $5 billion, according to Xinhua.
In a call between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his Belarussian counterpart Sergei Aleinik on Friday, Qin pledged that China would “support Belarus in its efforts to safeguard national stability and development,” and “oppose external interference in Belarus’s internal affairs and illegal unilateral sanctions against the country,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.
According to the Chinese state media, Lukashenko was welcomed with a 21-gun salute in Tiananmen Square, and later declared the China-Belarus friendship “unbreakable.”
The leaders of France andUkraine wanted to discuss the paper with their Chinese counterpart, but the United States was unwilling to do so.
Xi and Lukashenko signed a joint statement on the further development of the “China-Belarus All-Weather Strategic Partnership,” and witnessed the signing of a number of bilateral cooperation documents in the fields of trade, industry, agriculture, customs, science and technology, health, tourism, sports, localities and others.
Lukashenko has served as president of the former Soviet republic since 1994, and won a sixth term in 2020 in an election that was widely seen as fraudulent. The regime met with violence when they met with street protests after Lukashenko’s reelection.