The Colorado River Crisis and What It Does Mean to Cities, Farmers and Native Tribes in the West: Implications for Arizona, California, and the United States
Across the Southwest, the signs of a phenomenal winter are everywhere. Outside of Los Angeles, the San Gabriel Mountains are covered in snow. In Phoenix, the Salt and Verde rivers are full.
“What we expect that means is that Lake Powell and Lake Mead will balance,” Brenda Burman, general manager of the Central Arizona Project and former Bureau of Reclamation commissioner, told CNN. It helps us with the type of shortage we might have next year and also helps us with the amount of time that we think the reservoir will last.
The huge winter means the basin states should no longer have to cut 25% of their water usage because the crisis on the Colorado River has been solved.
“We can probably create the protection levels with cuts not as big as what she described,” Arizona’s top water official Tom Buschatzke told CNN. That could help us get to where we need to be.
After more than a year of intense negotiations between Arizona, Californians and other Western states on how to divvy up the cuts, officials say the wet winter has taken some of the pressure off.
The first part of an analysis about how different volumes of Colorado River cuts will affect cities, farmers and tribes is expected to be released on Tuesday.
The manager of ColoradoRiver Resources for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California says that the wet winter likely won’t be reflected in the analysis.
Others are cautioning that a historic winter will not be enough to prevent the inevitable pain of water cuts as years of overuse coincide with climate change.
A dire picture of what a collapsed Colorado River would mean for the West’s major cities, farmers, and Native tribes was released by the Biden administration on Tuesday.
The first short-term agreement between the administration and farmers was announced last week. The Gila River Indian Community in Arizona promised to conserve 125,000 acre-feet – about 40 billion gallons – of Colorado River water for the next three years. The federal government will pay for water infrastructure and other projects for the tribe.
At a news conference in Arizona on Thursday, Tommy Beaudreau said more agreements would be coming soon.
Beaudreau said that more federal funding would be allocated to areas throughout the basin in order to conserve water. “You’re going to see a steady drumbeat of that.”
State and federal officials are hoping that a short-term payment to let agricultural fields go dry can add 10 feet to the elevation of Lake Mead.
Many of the agreements have not been signed, so it is not certain if 10 feet is doable, according to one source familiar with the agreements.
State negotiations yielded little consensus as a result of the 25% cut called for last year by Touton. Sticking points have included whether the senior priority rights that protect California and Arizona farmers and tribes from cuts should remain intact.
When the guidelines for how the river is managed are set to expire in six years, stakeholders are expecting tougher negotiations.
Burman warned that since 2000, the Colorado River hasn’t seen two good years in a row, meaning celebrations are short-lived.
“Even though this year is looking like a very good year for runoff; one, we haven’t seen it yet, and two, we don’t know what will happen next year,” Burman said.
One outside expert watching negotiations told CNN the talk about not having to make hard choices now is concerning, given how close the river has already come to crashing.
Sarah Porter is the director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “We have already come very close to minimum power pool and we’re now able to say the words dead pool. We need a negotiated agreement or a federal action to get us out of this zone.”
The Bureau of Reclamation is ready to cut back water usage in Lakes Mead and Powell if the Colorado River is unable to continue its flow through the Glen Canyon and Hoover dams.
The cities that get water from the Colorado river include Las Vegas and Phoenix, both of which have 40% water from the river.
Beaudreau told CNN that his hope was that the figures would help spur an agreement among the basin states.
The other scenario examines what would happen if the water cuts are spread equally among cities, farmers and tribes alike – an option that some high-priority water users have warned could result in a prolonged, high-stakes court battle between states and the federal government.
Beaudreau called the no-action option the “most severe” for the river basin, but said it was important to include to emphasize why more cuts are so critical should water levels plummet further.
Beaurdeau said that the federal government is trying to paint a picture of what a future without water would be like, in hopes that the states can agree on short-term cuts.
The Interior Secretary will do what’s necessary and responsible to keep the system up and running.
“In some cases, it may spur opposition or even litigation,” Buschatzke said at Tuesday’s news conference. We should speed our discussions in the basin for a consensus-based outcome.
California’s lead negotiator in the Colorado River talks, JB Hamby, echoed that sentiment, and said Arizona, California and the other states are looking to “develop a true, seven-state consensus in the coming months – ideally in the next 45-day period.”
The result of those programs could change the landscape enough by late summer that the feds could ramp down the extent of the water cuts in their final decision.
“It all depends on how much the shortages are,” he said. “If there’s conservation in the system that keeps water in Lake Mead, and we have to make minimal shortage reductions on top of [existing drought guidelines], that is an accomplishment in and of itself.”
Beaudreau said that while he hopes the seven states can strike a short-term deal, he doesn’t yet know whether than can be achieved. If not, he reiterated Interior is prepared to act and implement cuts itself to keep the system from crashing.