The Nord Stream Pipeline Crisis: What Happened After the First Gas Leaky, And How Can Countries Attempt to Stop It Going Forward?

A week after several suspicious ruptures were discovered along the undersea Nord Stream pipeline, gas has reportedly stopped leaking but the questions keep flowing. Namely: What — and who — caused the damage? And how can countries try to prevent similar incidents going forward?

Scientists say the two leaks were likely caused by powerful underwater explosions, based on seismic data from Sweden and Denmark. NATO blamed deliberate, reckless, and irresponsible acts of sabotage for the leaks.

Sweden, Denmark and Germany have all opened investigations, while Russia — whose state-controlled energy company, Gazprom, is the main owner of the pipelines — is calling for a review and blaming the West.

Still, the incident has raised a number of concerns about the impact on the environment (because of the massive amount of climate-damaging methane it released) and Europe’s energy supply, as well as the vulnerability of critical infrastructure more broadly.

There are about 730,000 miles of pipelines around the world, enough to circle the Earth 30 times, says national security analyst Juliette Kayyem. And that’s not including wires connecting the internet, which she says amount to “another million miles of cable, essentially.”

Are the country’s forces ready to go after it if it looks like it’s attacking the line? Kayyem says they could use battleships, submarines or even equipment like drones to “take things out.”

“We should think about it more and people do think about it,” she explains. “The standard is not, ‘Can we make it safe?’ It’s just sort of, ‘Can we make it safer?’ at this stage, can we minimize the risk for these pipelines.”

It involves building more protective pipes that can withstand intrusion, controlling access to pipelines, monitoring them and intercepting potential attacks.

According to Kayyem, the incident of Nord Stream shows the importance of being aware of boats and submarines in the area. These kinds of pipelines have lots of detection devices, she adds, which can help authorities figure out if the object nearby is a whale or an actual threat.

Not all threats come by land or sea. It was in April of last year that a computer attack temporarily shut down theColonial Pipeline, which is used to carry gas, diesel and jet fuel from Texas to New York.

Kayyem says it’s crucial for countries and companies to plan for these kinds of disruptions so they can prepare to restore their systems as fast as possible.

Analyzing Space Know of Two Dark Ships in the Region of Interest for Detection of Gas Leak-Induced Leaks

According to the analysis by space know, the two dark ships were in close proximity of the leak sites. The CEO and co- founder of Space Know says they have detected some large ships that were passing through that area of interest. “They had their beacons off, meaning there was no information about their movement, and they were trying to keep their location information and general information hidden from the world,” Javornicky adds.

Once it gathered archive images of the area, SpaceKnow created a series of polygons around the gas leak sites. The smallest of these, around 400 square meters, covered the immediate blast area, and larger areas of interest covered several kilometers. In the weeks leading up to the explosions, SpaceKnow detected 25 ships passing through the region, from “cargo ships to multipurpose larger ships,” Javornicky says. In total, 23 of these vessels had their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders turned on. Two did not have AIS data turned on, and these ships passed the area during the days immediately ahead of the leaks being detected.

To detect the ships, Javornicky says, the company scoured 90 days of archived satellite images for the area. The company analyzes images from multiple satellite systems—including paid and free services—and uses machine learning to detect objects within them. Changes in landscapes and the ability to monitor roads are included in this. “We have 38 specific algorithms that can detect military equipment,” Javornicky says, adding that SpaceKnow’s system can detect specific models of aircraft on landing strips.