Russian missile arsenals in Ukraine as the last ravage of the Ukrainian war between the United States and the Far-Are Weak Arms
The Russians have been using different types of missile stocks over the last few days. The majority were air-launched cruise missiles, some delivered by bombers based near the Caspian Sea. But they also deployed ship-launched Kalibrs from the Black Sea, ground-launched Iskander cruise missiles and dozens of attack drones.
The Ukrainian government is very familiar with the risk that the Russian mix of missiles will wreak havoc on the populace, especially if the Russians use swarms of missiles.
The great unknown is how long the bombing will last and whether it will cause Russia to use older, less accurate but equally powerful missiles.
It is difficult to figure out Russian missile inventories. In May, President Volodymr Zelensky said Russia had launched 2,154 missiles and had probably used up 60% of its precision-missile arsenal. That now looks like wishful thinking.
The Russians have also been adapting the S-300 – normally an air defense missile – as an offensive weapon, with some effect. They are difficult to intercept because they are so fast, and that makes them devastating in Zaporizhzhia and other places. They are not accurate.
It is certain that this week’s missile attacks have caused significant damage. Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko told CNN on Tuesday that around 30% of the country’s energy infrastructure had been hit by Russian missiles since Monday.
He told Richard that Russia had targeted energy infrastructure for the first time since the beginning of the war.
There has been a steady increase in types of weaponry supplied to Ukraine as the war nears the one year mark. Retired Air Force Lt. General Dave Deptula welcomes the addition of the Patriot system, but says that more is required. “Wars aren’t won just with good defense,” Deptula said, adding that it’s time for the US to provide Ukraine with fighter aircraft, advanced precision munitions and longer-range surface to surface missiles.
Estimating the proportion of Iranian-made Shahed drones being eliminated is more difficult, because so many are being used. Zelensky said he gets a message about Iranian Shaheds every 10 minutes. He said that a lot of them were being shot down.
Ukraine needs fighter jets and long-range missiles: a view from the Ukrainian high-altitude air defense ministry, and a new era of air defense
The Ukrainians appear undeterred. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister said that Ukraine needs fighter jets and long-range missiles.
Missiles, a transition to Western origin air defense system, and an early warning capabilities were included in a wish-list circulating at Wednesday’s meeting.
The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as some aircraft. Because of its long-range and high-altitude capability, it can potentially shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft far from their intended targets inside Ukraine.
Western systems are beginning to trickle in. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.
These are not off-the-shelf items. The IRIS-T needed to be made for the country of Ukraine. Western governments have limited inventories of such systems. And Ukraine is a very large country under missile attack from three directions.
The State of Ukraine with NPR: a Primer’s View from Ukraine’s Cold War to a Closer Look at the Russian War
Poland was thanked for training an air defense battalion that destroyed nine of the Shaheeds on Tuesday by the senior military commander of Ukraine.
He said Poland had given Ukraine “systems” to help destroy the drones. There were reports last month that the Polish government was buying Israeli equipment and transferring it to Ukraine, because of Israel’s policy against selling advanced defensive technology to Kyiv.
There are rumors of a fight for the city of Kherson in southern Ukraine. Kremlin-installed officials have been evacuating civilians in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
And Ukraine will be watching America’s midterm election results this week, especially after some Republicans warned that the party could limit funding for Ukraine if it wins control of the House of Representatives, as forecast.
Also Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday is scheduled to discuss an International Atomic Energy Agency report, in which Ukraine is expected to be on the agenda.
Russia rejoined a U.N.-brokered deal to safely export grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine, on Nov. 2. Moscow had suspended its part in the deal a few days prior after saying Ukraine had launched a drone attack on its Black Sea ships.
The nearly $3 billion package is among the largest packages of military equipment sent from the Pentagon to Ukraine since the war began. As the weather warms, Ukraine prepares to fight in the spring.
You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR’s State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.
Pentagon officials are close to getting the missile defense system in place: Can we send a Patriot missile out to Ukraine if Ukraine is going to attack Russia?
The Biden administration is close to a deal with the Ukrainian government to get the missile defense system in place, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.
The Pentagon’s plan still needs to be approved by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin before it is sent to President Joe Biden for his signature. The officials told CNN that they expect it to be approved.
It is not clear how many missile launchers will be sent but a typical Patriot battery includes a radar set that detects and tracks targets, computers, power generating equipment, an engagement control station and up to eight launchers, each holding four ready to fire missiles.
Ukrainian troops are expected to be trained in Germany by Americans. Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers go to Germany each month for other training, and it’s not the last. Pentagon officials recently said that they would increase that number early next year.
“If you have an Iranian Shahed uncrewed system heading toward critical infrastructure in Ukraine, it may very well be worth the cost of a Patriot missile to take it out,” he said. I think the move makes sense given the attack that Russia is about to conduct against Ukrainian critical infrastructure.
The Challenge of Russian Warfare in the 21st Century: The Case for Counterattacks Against the Kremlin and the United States
Perhaps the biggest obstacle was the question of manpower. About 90 positions are typically assigned to operate one missile battery. And the training needed is substantial; course lengths range from 13 weeks for a launching station operator to 53 weeks for a maintenance role, according to Army recruitment materials.
The US gave a large amount of missiles to the Ukrainians, but there is no deep inventory of missiles that are readily available for transfer to Ukraine.
Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one Patriot battery already overseas to Ukraine, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Final approval would then rest with President Biden.
White House, Pentagon and State Department officials declined to comment on details of the transfer of a Patriot battery, which, if approved, would amount to one of the most sophisticated weapons the U.S. has provided Ukraine.
In a speech to the Group of 7 nations on Monday, Mr. Zelensky thanked the countries for their continued support but listed financing for weapons first among his requests.
Sanctions have not been enough to shake Russia’s determination to restore its empire at the cost of peaceful neighboring states. The conflict should be changed in order to give Russia more time to destroy the US and other Western countries. Russia’s aggression and savagery must not be allowed by the international community, they have to do more than that. More direct intervention is long overdue.
It is past time for the West to tell Russia that if it continues down this path, its fantasy of a hostile West seeking the overthrow of Putin will become a reality. Russia could hardly claim this, too, was an escalation, when it has long told the world and itself that it is already at war with the West.
The US in particular has felt its way forward through incremental increases in the capability of weapons supplied to Ukraine, wary at each stage of Russia’s supposed “red lines” – but finding in each case that the red lines evaporate, and all Russia’s threats are empty bluster.
In doing so, the West has played along with the Kremlin’s pretense that it is not at war, only waging a “special military operation.” It has made sure that Russia isn’t hurt by its own aggression.
Russia’s most effective tool of deterrence remains nuclear threats. Over the past decade or so, the message of inevitable nuclear response if Russia is humiliated has already been transmitted, as a result of loose talk about using nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, Russia will continue to look for sources of replacement weapons as it scrapes the barrel for repurposed or adapted missiles to launch at Ukraine. And Iran may not be the only country willing to supply Russia in the future.
It sets a bad example for aggressive powers around the world. Nuclear weapons allow you to wage genocidal wars of destruction against your neighbors, because other nations won’t intervene.
If the US wants other aggressive states around the world to hear that message, then it is time to give them the anti-missile system known as the ‘Patriot’.
Zelenskyy renewed those calls in the past weeks before his visit to Washington on Wednesday. The G7 was criticized for not giving Ukraine more assistance last week, but in a statement the group now says it will give the country air defense systems and capabilities.
“It becomes a real humanitarian issue when you’re trying to deprive an entire country of its electrical grid and water and everything else,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a 22-year Army veteran who now works as a Russia analyst at the Center for a New American Security. They see that as a way to help Ukrainians in the fight.
U.S. and the Army are using the Patriot missile array as an anti-aircraft weapon: Why is Ukraine so hard to send?
There are a dozen U.S. allies and the U.S. Army that use the array. The system was originally designed as an anti-aircraft weapon.
It would take a Patriot battery of 20 to 100miles to cover the entire of Ukraine, which is 800 miles from east to west and 500 miles from north to south.
It’s good that we can defend a single city against some threats. Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel said that it’s not putting a bubble over Ukranian.
Even with a compressed schedule the training requirements mean that the system is unlikely to be operational until late winter or early spring.
The push to get the system up and running as soon as possible could backfire, Cancian said: Ineffective operation caused by hasty training could hamper the system’s effectiveness; in a worst case scenario, Ukrainians might be unable to prevent Russians from destroying it. That in turn could damage the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine, he said.
The Ukrainians wouldn’t have a problem with it if they had a couple of years to get used to it. The problem is they don’t have a year or two. They want to do this in a couple weeks,” Cancian said.
The recent Russian airstrikes and assault on the Ukrainian infrastructure has turned up pressure on the US and its allies to do more.
The aid package announced Wednesday includes more than one battery, as well as additional fire arms such as rocket and mortars.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/21/1144662505/us-ukraine-patriot-missile-system
U.S. Air Security Forces in Ukraine: How will they help us fight the Russians? A joint statement on Ukraine’s air defence mission to Ukraine in October
Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that there is a real deep concern” among U.S. officials about Ukraine’s air defense capability.
The missiles that accompany the Patriot are more expensive than the missiles that are launched by the other side. Analysts stated that Ukrainians must be careful in how they use them. “You can’t just let these things fly,” said Cancian.
Before October, Ukrainian air defenses had focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south, along with key government buildings and military sites in Kyiv and a handful of regional hubs.
Greico said that it was a terrible choice to try and protect your civilians from the brutal attacks while at the same time trying to resist the Russian war effort.
On their phone call, Biden and Scholz “expressed their common determination to continue to provide the necessary financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as needed,” a joint statement read.
Any future attempts to push the Russians out of Ukraine will probably be spearheaded by the new infantry, or armored fighting vehicles.
Those systems had been at the top of Zelensky’s wish list because it will allow his military to target Russian missiles flying at a higher altitude than they were able to target previously.
Reznikov says Ukraine also needs time to set up supply chains for fuel and spare parts and also train mechanics to maintain and repair the new tanks. The new tanks will be a game change for Ukraine as it tries to regain its lost territory, just as the HIMARs helped Ukrainian forces gain control of Kherson in November.
But if not sent in large numbers, the recent armored additions will likely change little on the broader battlefield and add to Ukraines growing logistics burden, as Ukrainian mechanics struggle with a diverse fleet of vehicles that each have their own parts and ammunition requirements.
The Times: Who Knows Who? Who Wants to Know? Who Needs the Source? How Do We Need to Tell Them? Why Do The Times Need Us?
Before using anonymous sources we have to consider what. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and an editor know who the source is.
The AMX-10 has a 105-millimeter cannon. The M2 Bradley can be fitted with a 25-millimeter cannon and an anti-tank guided missile. The Marder is typically fitted with a 20-millimeter gun. The three different vehicles use different ammunition types, meaning more of a logistics headache for the Ukrainian troops using them. The French one runs on large tires while the others use treads.
The U.S. and Germany will donate to Ukrainians Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks, if Ukrainian troops start training on them, according to Reznikov. The U.K. is already training Ukrainians on its Challenger tanks, and is sending Ukraine 14 of them.
The International Monetary Fund releases its latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday morning in Singapore. The Russia-Ukraine war is a big factor causing an economic downturn in some countries.
Russian aggression against Ukraine: U.S. forces and the u.s.-russian diplomatic relations in the mid-Arctic region
A group of European Commission leaders are expected to visit Ukraine on Thursday and European Union leaders are expected to hold a summit with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy the following day.
The US and Germany decided to send tanks to the Ukrainian government after months of resistance. Germany also said other countries, like Poland, can give Ukraine their German-made Leopard 2 tanks.
The military of Ukraine retreated from the eastern town of Soledar, acknowledging the takeover by the Russians. Russian forces continued their offensive around Bakhmut and other parts of the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
New U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy arrived in Moscow, at a time of strong tensions between the two governments over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Monday, Tracy was reportedly heckled by protesters as she entered the Russian Foreign Ministry to present her credentials.
Russia’s ambassadors were told to leave by the two Baltic states after the Kremlin said it had reduced relations with them due to what it described as “Russophobia”.
The UK thinks the fighter jets are sophisticated and take months to learn how to fly. We don’t believe it is practical to send those jets into Ukraine.
“My understanding is that there are training courses we can do in Europe,” Reznikov says. It’s convenient because we have to use a landscape that is similar to the one we have in the weather.
“For the Leopard tanks, for example, [training] normally could be half a year. But I hope that we will do it during one month or probably two months,” he says adds.
Vladimir Reznikov: Zero Tolerance with Corruption and Ukraine’s Role in the Military and High-Energy World
“I’m sure that’s realistic,” he says about the F-16s, noting that Ukraine has secured other weapons in the past that seemed out of reach.
President Biden seemed to suggest on Monday that the U.S. would not donate F-16s to Ukraine, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told the Tagesspiegel newspaper published Sunday that “the question of combat aircraft does not arise at all.”
Reznikov says he knows Western allies are scrutinizing Ukraine’s government closely. Ukrainian journalists recently reported that Reznikov’s own ministry was sometimes purchasing food and other supplies for troops at inflated prices.
Before the Russian invasion, most defense ministry expenses were public. Now most are classified for security reasons. During wartime, transparency is a delicate issue and he’s working with parliament to change laws and make defense expenditures more transparent.
“It’s not a piece of cake, but I will do it,” he says. “Because my principle is zero tolerance with corruption. We have to be a new Ukraine, with the European standard, not the old-fashioned Soviet Ukraine with a legacy of corruption.”
U.S. officials in Ukraine are considering sending F-16s to NATO if it comes to a test of defense and deterrence
But that push is being met with skepticism by US and allied officials who say the jets would be impractical, both because they require considerable training and because Russia has extensive anti-aircraft systems that could easily shoot them down.
More puzzling to US officials is why Ukraine has made such a public show of asking for F-16s, when in private the jets are rarely mentioned atop Ukraine’s wish list of weapons.
“One year ago everyone rejected HIMARS and no one could imagine Abrams tanks,” the official said, referring to US missile systems provided to Ukraine last year, and the Biden administration’s decision last week to give Ukraine the flagship American battle tank.
“I don’t think fighter jets are easier than ATACMS, but I believe we need to try to push,” the Ukrainian military official told CNN, referring to the long-range missiles they still want.
Last week, the Pentagon’s deputy press secretary said that the Pentagon is providing them what they think they are capable of. The F-16 is a very complex system.
Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, also appeared reluctant, telling reporters on Monday that sending the planes “would really be a big next step if it comes to that.” Poland will only send its fighter jets to NATO in coordination with its allies, stated the Prime Minister on Monday.
Fighter jets and long range missiles that can hit targets up to 300 km away are the type of weapons our partners know we need, he said. Weapons of defense and deterrence are what these are. We are in talks to get all these solutions unlocked. This is a priority for our diplomats in key capitals.