The United States as a Defense Force: Towards a Solution of Ukraine’s Warping Problem with the Soviet-era S-300 System
The US in particular has felt its way forward through incremental increases in the capability of weapons supplied to Ukraine, wary at each stage of Russia’s supposed “red lines” – but finding in each case that the red lines evaporate, and all Russia’s threats are empty bluster.
It does not meet Ukraine’s immediate needs for dispersed defenses in large numbers to counter the wide range of air and missile threats from Russia. But the anticipated US decision to supply the system may instead be a preemptive response to a possible new emerging threat – the arrival of Iranian ballistic missiles to step up Russia’s campaign of destruction still further.
The Soviet-era S-300 missile systems are very hard to get. The U.S. has regularly delivered air defense assistance, including more than 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and eight ground-based air missile defense systems called NASAMS. A number of mobile rocket launchers called HIMARS and an array of other military vehicles and arms are supplied by the U.S. But those supplies, too, are running low.
“It’s not just about the equipment that you have. He said it was about how you use that equipment and how you use battlefield effects to create opportunities.
Ukrainian rocket attacks and the “flight for democracy”: On the problem of reconstruction across from the nuclear power plant and a central power plant in Ukraine
“Unfortunately, we already see that they (Russians) are striking at the generating facilities again, trying to cut off our nuclear and thermal power plants, to damage additional key energy hubs, focusing their attacks on these facilities,” Kharchenko said. I want Ukrainians to understand that the situation isn’t easy and that there won’t be any quick improvement in the situation with electricity.
Russian officials blamed Ukraine on Sunday for a rocket attack that destroyed the mayor’s office in the east of the country, as Ukrainian officials said Russians launched rocket attacks on a town across from the nuclear power plant.
While Russia has not retaliated in a specific way for the assassination, the United States is concerned that such attacks — while high in symbolic value — have little direct impact on the battlefield and could provoke Moscow to carry out its own strikes against senior Ukrainian officials. American officials have been frustrated with Ukraine’s lack of transparency about its military and covert plans, especially on Russian soil.
A Ukrainian state-owned military contractor has said it developed a long-range drone that would, theoretically, be able to hit Moscow. Russia said Ukraine used Soviet-era, jet-powered reconnaissance drones to hit air bases on Dec. 5.
Critical infrastructure was impacted in some areas: There was no electricity supply in four regions: Lviv, Poltava, Sumy and Ternopil regions. Lviv residents who might have access to electricity were told to only use it for emergency needs. The subway operations in Kyiv were temporarily suspended. The region of Khmelnytskyi, which lies west of Kyiv, has “no electricity supply, electric transport does not work, water supply is suspended, traffic lights do not work,” according to the region’s head. In a Monday Telegram post, Zelensky said that the government was doing everything they could to restore electricity supply. Most of the energy facilities will be reconnected today, according to the Prime Minister of Ukraine. The rest will start working tomorrow.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the strikes were a response to terrorism by Ukranian citizens. The list of alleged crimes that he referred to were, among others, the explosion on a bridge linking Russia and Crimea and a list of Ukrainian “special services.”
After the strikes, China expressed hope that the situation in Ukraine will be de-escalated soon. India is very concerned by the increasing conflict and has urged the warring parties to stop the fighting and return to the negotiating table. ” Other European leaders have also condemned the attack.
Several people are dead across the country and the capital has not been hit in nearly six months, according to emergency services. It’s also the closest strike to the center of the city since the war began, coming just over 1,000 yards from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office.
The missile attacks this week have caused a lot of damage. Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko told CNN on Tuesday that around 30% of the country’s energy infrastructure had been hit by Russian missiles since Monday.
“It’s a tough morning when you’re dealing with terrorists, because Russia invaded in February, and I took a selfies on that night” said Zelenskyy in the video. “They’re trying to harm as many people as possible.”
Viktor Shevchenko, 81, after a heavy explosion in Kharkiv: What he didn’t do before the explosion happened
In the Ukrainian capital, the National Philharmonic concert halls and two museums have sustained heavy damage. A nearby strike damaged the country’s main passenger terminal, delaying trains during this morning’s rush hour, according to Ukraine’s National Railway.
Oleh SynieHubov, head of the regional military administration, said at least 10 missiles struck targets in the north of the region. Power was restored to the Kharkiv city after it was knocked out for a long time. “There is a colossal infrastructural damage,” Kharkiv’s mayor, Ihor Terekhov, said, instructing residents to use so-called “invincibility points” – makeshift centers offering relief from power outages – to collect food and hot drinks, and recharge cellphones.
The head of the Department of Transport for Dnipro city council, Ihor Makovtsev, stood by the wreck as he said that it happened at rush hour. He added that the bus driver and four passengers had been taken to the hospital with serious injuries.
All of our transportation is only for civilians, so it’s hard for me to figure out any logic to the work that they do.
81-year-old Viktor Shevchenko looked out from what once were the windows of his first floor balcony, just next to the bus stop. Shattered glass covered the ground below. He said he went to his kitchen to make breakfast just minutes before the blast and that he had been watering the plants on his balcony.
He said that the explosion blew open all of his cabinets and almost knocked him to the ground. “Only five minutes before, and I would have been on the balcony, full of glass.”
The U.S. Air Defense Assistance to Ukraine During the First Three Months of the Cold War: Countering the Kremlin’s Attack
As Russia has conducted attacks on power plants, heating systems and other energy infrastructure, the Ukrainian government has intensified their pleas for air defense from the United States and other Western allies. The attacks, using missiles and Iranian-made drones, have left Ukrainians vulnerable and in the dark just as the coldest time of the year is beginning.
The massive Russian response seemed intended to calm Putin allies who have grown increasingly critical of the Kremlin’s military strategy as Russian forces have repeatedly ceded territory to an ongoing Ukrainian advance. Many had been openly lobbying President Putin to strike Ukraine harder.
Ramzan Kadyrov wrote that “we warned Zelenskyy that Russia had not begun yet.” Kadyrov is a Putin loyalist who has repeatedly attacked the Russia’s Defense Ministry for incompetence in carrying out the military campaign.
The White House did not give any information about which air defense systems Biden discussed with Zelensky. NASAMS would be capable of engaging Russian cruise missiles.
Biden, the statement said, “also underscored his ongoing engagement with allies and partners to continue imposing costs on Russia, holding Russia accountable for its war crimes and atrocities, and providing Ukraine with security, economic, and humanitarian assistance.”
And a second senior administration official provided the following summary of air defense aid provided to Ukraine from the US: “We have transferred more than 1,400 Stinger anti-air systems to Ukraine, as well as air surveillance and multi-mission radars. We allowed Allies to transfer air defense systems, including the transfer of a critical S-300 system in April. President Biden’s new assistance package for Ukraine included an order for 8 new NASAMS, the national advanced surface to air missile systems. We will continue to provide Ukraine with what it needs to defend itself.”
The US is speeding up its delivery of NASAMS, the same ground-based air defense systems that are being used to protect the White House, and it is expecting to have the systems in Ukraine in a few weeks.
Zelensky’s Russian missile attack on the Ukraine isn’t an option: Moscow and the U.S. should go to war
The Ukrainian State Emergency Service said Tuesday that at least 19 people were killed and 105 others were injured in Russian missile attacks on Monday.
Zelensky is in Washington to remind the Republicans that a victory for the Ukrainians would lead to nuclear-backed brutality in Russia and cause the US to go to war.
Yes. There is an enormous 45 billion dollar aid package in the works, and it is one of many drumbeats from the Biden administration. The message is simple, that aid will not stop and that Ukraine is getting as much aid as Washington can provide.
“It’s clear that he’s feeling the pressure both at home and overseas, and how he reacts to that only he can say,” Kirby told CNN’s Kate Bolduan on “Erin Burnett OutFront.”
Last Monday, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence said that Russia had almost exhausted its high-precision weapons, but had enough supplies to cause harm. The NSC’s Kirby said that Iran did not deliver a missile to Russia.
Last week, Biden delivered a stark warning about the dangers of Putin’s nuclear threats, invoking the prospect of “Armageddon.” But multiple US officials have said the comment was not based on any new intelligence about Putin’s intentions or changes in Russia’s nuclear posture.
Syria’s Nuclear Reactions in the First Three Months of the War: The Security Situation in the United States and the War on Intermediate-Relativistic Nuclear Systems
The emergency services said that there were more than 30 fires in the capital and 12 regions where critical and civil infrastructure was damaged.
The Russian attacks were denounced by International leaders, including US President Joe Biden. The US will give advanced air defense systems to the Ukrainians, according to Biden.
Kirby said that Russian military personnel based in the Crimea used Iranian drones to conduct strikes across Ukranian.
The math is simple for Moscow: If a majority of projectiles make it through, it will be a success.
The question of longevity and sustainability remains because it is unclear how long Iran can or would continue providing weaponry – including more advanced missiles – to Russia.
The Pentagon’s view at the time was that of its weapons stocks, Russia was “running the lowest on cruise missiles, particularly air-launched cruise missiles,” but that Moscow still had more than 50% of its pre-war inventory.
Some of that inventory was dispatched this week. Western officials say that Russia has recently begun to use older and less precise missiles in place of the more precise ones, which still have large inventories. Weighing 5.5 tons, they are designed to take out aircraft carriers. Dozens of people were casualties at a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in June.
The Russians have also been adapting the S-300 – normally an air defense missile – as an offensive weapon, with some effect. Their speed makes them difficult to stop, and they have wreaked havoc in many places. They are not very accurate.
He told CNN’s Richard Quest that this was the “first time from the beginning of the war” that Russia has “dramatically targeted” energy infrastructure.
There has been a gradual increase in types of weaponry supplied to Ukraine. Retired Air Force Lt. General Dave Deptula welcomes the addition of the Patriot system, but says that more is required. “Wars aren’t won just with good defense,” Deptula said, adding that it’s time for the US to provide Ukraine with fighter aircraft, advanced precision munitions and longer-range surface to surface missiles.
Conflict Armament Research found that the Iranian drones they examined in Ukraine in November had “higher-end technological capabilities,” including tactical-grade sensors and semiconductors sourced outside of Iran, demonstrating that Tehran “has been able to circumvent current sanction regimes and has added more capabilities and resiliency to its weapons.”
Ukraine’s wish-list – circulated at Wednesday’s meeting – included missiles for their existing systems and a “transition to Western-origin layered air defense system” as well as “early warning capabilities.”
He said that this system is designed to control priority targets that Ukraine needs to protect, but would not control all the airspace over Ukraine. What you’re looking at really is short-range low-altitude systems and then medium-range medium altitude and then long-range and high altitude systems, and it’s a mix of all of these.”
Western systems are beginning to trickle in. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.
This is just the beginning. Before he met with the donors at the Brussels meeting, Reznikov wrote on his website that the first thing they should do was strengthenUkraine’s air defense. I feel optimistic.
But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. The IRIS-T is made for Ukraine. Western governments only have a small amount of such systems. There is a threat of missile attack from three directions.
Which is the kaze in Ukraine? The Russian Defense Forces of Ukraine have a Drone to Defend Its Armes
Ukraine’s senior military commander, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, tweeted Tuesday his thanks to Poland as “brothers in arms” for training an air defense battalion that had destroyed nine of 11 Shaheeds.
He said Poland had given Ukraine “systems” to help destroy the drones. Last month there were reports that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment (Israel has a policy of not selling “advanced defensive technology” to Kyiv) and was then transferring it to Ukraine.
Which drones is Russia using in Ukraine? The Ukrainian military and US intelligence say Russia is using Iranian-made attack drones. In July, US officials told CNN that Iran was showing Shahed drones to Russia. The drones can carry missiles, and have a weight of up to 100 pounds.
The drones are disposable and that’s what led to the name “kaze”. They are designed to hit behind enemy lines and are destroyed in the attack — unlike the more traditional, larger and faster military drones that return home after dropping missiles.
Violation of Ukrainian Intelligence and Security Laws During the November Ukraine-Ukraine Insurgence: Moscow, Ukraine and the Donetsk Region
Microsoft said in April that at least six different Kremlin-linked hacking groups conducted hundreds of cyber operations against Ukrainian targets. The White House blamed the Kremlin for a hack that disrupted satellite internet services in Ukraine on the eve of Russia’s invasion.
On the front line, “the key hotspots in Donbas are (neighboring towns) Soledar and Bakhmut, where extremely heavy fighting continues,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address Sunday.
The industrialized Donbas region has been the site of fighting between Russian-backed rebels and the Ukrainian army. Russia annexed the Donetsk region last month.
Zelenskyy accused Russia of including convicts “with long sentences for serious crimes” in its front-line troops in return for pay and amnesty — something Western intelligence officials have also asserted.
In Kherson, the southern city which was liberated by Ukrainian forces in November, four people died from rocket attacks that targeted critical infrastructure, residential buildings, medical aid and public transport. Shelling also set a multi-storey apartment building ablaze, and the body of a man was found in one apartment, the Ukrainian Prosecutor-General’s Office said. Basic services are not restored in the city.
Zelenskyy’s office said Moscow was shelling towns and villages along the front line in the east Sunday, and that “active hostilities” continued in the southern Kherson region.
There were rockets fired across from the nuclear plant, causing damage to power lines, gas lines and a number of civilian businesses and residential buildings. Over the course of months, Russia and Ukraine have been accused of each other’s firing at and around the nuclear plant. Under Russian oversight, it is run by its pre-occupation Ukrainian staff.
The region of Zaporizhzhia also was illegally annexed by Russia last month, despite the fact that some 20% of it remains under Ukrainian military control.
Russia opened an investigation into the death of 11 people and wounding of 15 people in a shooting that took place on a military firing range at a former Soviet republic. The Russian Defense ministry called it a terrorist attack.
France is stepping up military training and giving air-defense missiles to strengthen its support for Ukraine. Up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be embedded with military units in France, rotating through for several weeks of combat training, specialized training in logistics and other needs, and training on equipment supplied by France, the French defense minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said in an interview published in Le Parisien.
— The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, accused Moscow late Saturday of conducting “massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians,” which it said likely amount to ethnic cleansing.
Russian authorities this week claimed that thousands of children from a southern region of Moscow had been placed in rest homes and children’s camps during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The original remarks by Russia’s deputy prime minister, Marat Khusnullin, were reported by RIA Novosti on Friday.
Russian authorities admitted to placing children from Russian held areas of Ukranian who they said were orphans for adoption with Russian families, in a possible violation of an international treaty on genocide prevention.
— The Ukrainian military accused pro-Kremlin fighters of evicting civilians in occupied territories to house officers in their homes, an act it described as a violation of international humanitarian law. It said the evictions were happening in Rubizhne, in the eastern Luhansk region. It wasn’t able to prove its claim.
pro-Kremlin commentators said that a Russian commander wanted for his involvement in the downing of a Malaysian airliner in eastern Ukraine has been deployed to the front. Maksim Fomin and others said that a Russian front- line unit has been given responsibility for by another person.
Girkin has been on an international wanted list over his alleged involvement in the downing of Kuala Lumpur-bound flight MH17, which killed 298 people. He remains the most high-profile suspect in a related murder trial in a Dutch court, with a verdict expected Nov. 17.
Recently, Girkin’s social media posts have lashed out at Moscow’s battlefield failures. Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency said Sunday it would offer a $100,000 reward to anyone who captures him.
Ukraine has no time for slow actions: Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Zelenskyy, Andrey Yermak, and the European Union
Klitschko’s office says several residential buildings were damaged. He added that rescuers pulled 18 people from the rubble of one building and are looking for two more. The city’s central streets are closed for emergency services to respond.
Anton Gerashcenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Internal Ministry, reported attacks on infrastructure near the city’s main rail station, but lines were operating as normal midmorning Monday.
The enemy will not break us, and they can attack our cities. The President of the Ukranian said in a letter that the occupiers would only get fair punishment and condemnation of future generations.
Zelenskyy’s chief-of-staff, Andriy Yermak, again called on the west to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems. “We have no time for slow actions,” he said online.
After commenters criticized him for saying that a Russian strike had labeled the Iranian drones, he took the picture down.
European Union foreign ministers are scheduled to meet today in Luxembourg. Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, told reporters that the EU would look into concrete evidence that Iran was involved in Ukraine.
The Shahed Drones: Iran’s Strikes Are Not That Fast, But They’re Getting Better at Strategic and International Studies
Putin said on Friday there was no need for more strikes. There were a series of Russian attacks over the weekend that killed 11 civilians, eight of which were in the east of the country.
Both countries are deep in crisis, struggling economically and politically. Iran is attempting to quell street protests that pose the most serious challenge in years to the government, while Russia is trying to manage rising dissension over a faltering war effort and an unpopular draft.
“This is a partnership of convenience between two embattled dictatorships,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Another disadvantage of the Shahed drones is their speed, said Ret. Marine Col. Mark Cancian, who now serves as a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“The problem with them is that they’re slow,” Cancian said. “Like all propeller-driven drones, they’re just not very fast.” They are susceptible to being shot down by missiles or aircraft guns.
The US imposed sanctions on an air transportation provider for being involved in the shipment of Iranian drones to Russia. The US is ready to target producers and procurers in order to help the UAV program, the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence said.
The Iran-Russia War in Ukraine: A “folk hero” pilot killed by a high-altitude unmanned aerial system
Iran has always maintained that it is siding with the Russians in the Russia-Ukraine war. Iran has not given arms to either warring side,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Twitter.
The Russian decision to target cities was compared to the German bombing campaign that targeted London in World War II by Cancian and Nadimi.
By focusing on the cities, Cancian added, Ukraine’s military would likely have more time to recover on the front lines, similar to Britain’s recovery in WWII.
These larger surveillance drones can be expensive, so both Ukrainian and Russian forces have employed quadcopters — battery-powered commercial drones that are far cheaper. Quadcopters fly shorter distances and hover over a position before dropping small weapons like grenades on enemy troops and vehicles. They are designed to be used again after the batteries have been charged.
In March, the Pentagon announced it would send 100 “tactical unmanned aerial systems” called Switchblades. The next month, the administration said it would provide another 300. Eight days later, the Defense Department said it would send 120 Phoenix Ghost drones to Ukraine. The United States gave money for Ukraine to buy more of them.
In August, the Pentagon said it would send Puma drones — small aircraft that soldiers toss into the air to launch and then control by remote control from up to nine miles away. The altitudes of the umas are about 500 feet.
The Ukrainian military said in a statement last week that it had downed at least 229 drones in the east. “We are trying to quickly adapt to the new reality,” Mr. Sak said.
After shooting down five Iranian Shahed-136 drones, a Ukrainian pilot was given folk hero status in Ukraine, only to crash into the debris of the last one. The pilot, identified by only his nickname, Karaya, told the news media after the event that within a short period of time, they were starting to destroy it successfully.
After colliding with the airborne debris, he said, Karaya steered his MiG away from Vinnytsia and ejected. The jet crashed into houses, but there were no injuries on the ground. Karaya later visited the site to apologize.
Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure: cyber security, kinetic operations and the attack on a bridge between Crimea and Russia, a senior US official told CNAS
He said he apologized to the residents and thanked them for their steel nerves after showing up in his tattered uniform. He said that it was a violation of military protocol. “Lost them while leaving the office,” he wrote.
The shipment is being closely monitored because it would be the first instance of Iran sending advanced precision guided missiles to Russia, which could give the Kremlin a substantial boost on the battlefield.
The Iranian drones are known as a “loitering munition” because they are capable of circling for some time in an area identified as a potential target and only striking once an enemy asset is identified.
John Kirby said earlier this month that the presence of Iranian personnel in the conflict was evidence of Tehran’s involvement.
“We know that those drones have been used to target civilians and civilian infrastructure. And we know that Iran, in the face of all of this evidence, keeps lying and denying that it’s happening,” Malley said.
According to John Kirby, who works at the National Security Council, the US will sanction three Russian companies that are involved in the acquisition and use of Iranian drones and is looking at further steps we can take to restrict Iran’s access to sensitive technologies.
A Western official focused on cybersecurity said the Ukrainians are likely not publicly revealing the full extent of the impacts of Russian hacks on their infrastructure and their correlation with Russian missile strikes. That could deprive Russia of insights into the efficacy of their cyber operations, and in turn affect Russia’s war planning, the official said.
Effectively combining cyber and kinetic operations “requires a high degree of integrated planning and execution,” argued a US military official who focuses on cyber defense. The Russians can not pull that off between their ground assault forces.
Cyber operations aimed at industrial plants can take many months to plan, and after the explosion in early October of a bridge linking Crimea to Russia, Putin was “trying to go for a big, showy public response to the attack on the bridge,” the senior US official said.
Now, Ukraine is trying to defend a power grid that reaches every part of the country. According to the Russia analyst atCNAS, there are more sites to protect.
Four officials from one of Ukraine’s main cyber and communications agencies — the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP) — were killed October 10 in missile attacks, the agency said in a press release. The four officials did not have cybersecurity responsibilities, but their loss has weighed heavily on cybersecurity officials at the agency during another grim month of war.
A Western official said that they didn’t think Russia would be able to measure success in cyberspace by a single attack.
According to The Justice Department and private investigators, Russia unleashed destructive software called NotPetya that wiped out computer systems at companies across Ukraine before it spread around the world. The incident cost the global economy billions of dollars by disrupting shipping giant Maersk and other multinational firms.
Matt Olney, director of threat intelligence and interdiction at Talos, said the operation involved injecting malicious code into widely used Ukrainian software and camouflaging it.
“All of that was just as astonishingly effective as the end product was,” said Olney, who has had a team in Ukraine responding to cyber incidents for years. “And that takes time and it takes opportunities that sometimes you can’t just conjure.”
Observations on Russian Hacking Activities and the Security of the International Space Observatory. An Address to Estonia’s Ambassador-at-Large for Cyber Affairs
Zhora is a deputy Chairman of the SSSCIP and he called for Western governments to tighten sanctions on Russia because of its access to software that can be used to hack into computers.
Zhora toldCNN that they should not discard the probability that Russian Government hacking groups are working on high complexity attacks. All of the Russian military hackers and government-controlled groups are probably not on vacation at the moment.
In an interview, the Ambassador-at-large for cyber affairs from Estonia, Tanel Sepp, said it was possible the Russians could turn to a new wave of cyberattacks.
Sepp said that the goal was to isolated Russia on the international stage as much as possible, noting that the state had not communicated with Russia on cybersecurity issues in months.
Anticipation is mounting for a possible battle for Kherson, a Russian-occupied city in southern Ukraine. Kremlin-installed officials have been evacuating civilians in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Some Republicans warned that the party could limit funding for Ukraine if the Democrats take control of the US Congress, as expected, after the election results this week.
Also Tuesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will host Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Erdogan insists Sweden must meet certain conditions before it can join NATO.
The NPR’s State of Ukraine (Vladimir Belenskyy) – The Latest Updates on the Nuclear Power Report (NPR)
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday is scheduled to discuss an International Atomic Energy Agency report, in which Ukraine is expected to be on the agenda.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of “energy terrorism,” as attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure left more than 4 million Ukrainians without electricity.
Russia rejoined a U.N.-brokered deal to safely export grain and other agricultural goods from Ukraine, on Nov. 2. Moscow decided to suspend its involvement in the deal a few days after learning about the Ukrainian attack on the Black Sea ships.
The new deal will likely include the supply of guidance kits, or Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which Ukraine can use to bolt on to their unguided missiles or bombs. This will increase their accuracy and the rate in which Kyiv’s forces burn through ammunition. A large part of the $1.8 billion is used to replace munitions and stocks.
You can read past recaps here. You can find more of NPR’s coverage here. You can get the latest updates on the NPR’s State of Ukraine at any time.
Putin: “No water supply to Donetsk” – Russia’s first military war and its “Heroes of Russia”
He gave a glass of champagne to a group of soldiers receiving awards after the “Heroes of Russia” ceremony.
The reference to Kursk appears to reference Russia’s announcement that an airfield in the Kursk region, which neighbors Ukraine, was targeted in a drone attack. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has offered no comment on recent explosions, including in Kursk, which are deep within Russia. Officially, the targets are well beyond the reach of the country’s declared drones.
At the awards ceremony, Putin continued to list alleged aggressions: “Who is not supplying water to Donetsk? Not supplying water to a city of million is an act of genocide.”
He claimed there was no mention of the water situation after he made comments that appeared off the cuff. “No one has said a word about it anywhere. At all! Complete silence,” he said.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-12-08-22/h_aea9d9149a72232d60137554cc312f1e
Do Ukrainian Energy Facilities Need to Be Shocked? The Latest Kremlin Attacks in the Ukraine and the Status of the State of the Art
Russian authorities reported a lot of shelling of the city this week.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Russian drone strikes on the southern port city of Odesa left more than 1.5 million people in that region without power Saturday night, the latest attacks in an ongoing series of assaults on Ukrainian energy infrastructure by the Kremlin.
Ukraine has been put into a grim cycle of having its power restored only to have it knocked out again due to the repeated assaults on the equipment and plant that it relies on.
The power system is far from normal, and he urged people to reduce their power usage to make the system less strained.
“It must be understood: Even if there are no heavy missile strikes, this does not mean that there are no problems,” he continued. “Almost every day, in different regions, there is shelling, there are missile attacks, drone attacks. Energy facilities are hit almost every day.”
The Biden administration is finalizing plans to send the Patriot missile defense system to Ukraine that could be announced as soon as this week, according to two US officials and a senior administration official.
Before the Pentagon plan is sent to President Joe Biden, it needs to be approved by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Three officials told CNN that they expect approval.
Sensitivity to the Onslaught of Russian Operation on Ukraine and the Transfer of a U.S. Air Defense System to Ukraine
The number of missiles sent is unknown, but a typical missile battery has a radar set that can detect targets, computers, power generating equipment, and up to eight missiles, each with four ready to fire.
Many questions remain about the potential transfer, which was reported earlier by CNN, including how long it would take to train Ukrainian soldiers on the system, presumably in Germany, and where the Patriots would be deployed inside Ukraine.
He said that if you have an uncrewed Iranian Shahed system heading toward Ukrainian critical infrastructure, it may be worth the cost to take it out. “Given the onslaught that Russia is conducting against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the move makes sense to me.”
Unlike smaller air defense systems, Patriot missile batteries need much larger crews, requiring dozens of personnel to properly operate them. The training for the missile batteries normally takes several months and is going to have to be done in the next week or so because of the aerial attacks from Russia.
The system has been purchased by other US allies, including Israel, Germany, and Japan, and was sent to Poland in an effort to help them defend themselves against Russia as it invaded Ukraine on its border. The US military made clear in March when the Patriot system was sent to Poland that it was purely for defensive purposes of NATO territory and “will in no way support any offensive operations.”
WASHINGTON — Two US officials said that the United States was ready to approve sending most of its air defense equipment to Ukraine in response to the country’s request.
The Defense Secretary could approve a directive as early as this week to transfer one of the batteries out of the country, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. Final approval would then be given to President Biden.
White House, Pentagon and State Department officials declined to comment on details of the transfer of a Patriot battery, which, if approved, would amount to one of the most sophisticated weapons the U.S. has provided Ukraine.
In a speech to the Group of 7 nations on Monday, Mr. Zelensky thanked the countries for their continued support but listed financing for weapons first among his requests.
Ukraine’s Air Forces and Strategic Aeronautics: What will they tell us after the December 5 air attacks on Ukraine? “Microsonic” intelligence sources at the Kryvyi Rih underground station
“They have set a goal to leave Ukrainians without light, water and heat,” Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told a government meeting, adding that 60 of the 76 missiles fired at Ukraine were intercepted by its air defense forces.
Ukrainian energy operator Ukrenergo reported on Friday that more than 50% of the country’s energy capacity was lost due to Russian strikes on thermal and hydroelectric power plants and substations, activating “emergency mode.”
There could be a repetition of the situation from December 5, after which the Russians launched a massive missile strike. We should prepare for this and not forget to go to the shelter.
Residents bundled in winter coats, hats and scarves gathered in Kyiv’s underground stations as the sirens wailed. Huddled on escalators, their faces were lit by their phones as they scrolled through updates.
At least two people were killed when a missile hit a three story building in the central city of Kryvyi Rih, officials said. “There may be people under the rubble,” the deputy head of the presidential administration, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said.
Oleksandr Starukh, the chief of the regional military administration, said that the southeastern region had been hit with at least a dozen missile strikes.
On Ukrainian TV, Oleksandr was the director of the Energy Industry Research Center and he said that power would be out prior to the strikes as a preventative measure. He said that the result of Friday’s attacks would be unpleasant.
The air base, home to Russia’s long-range, nuclear- capable bombers, was hit by a drone in early December, according to the Kremlin. Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for the attack.
An MiG-31K, a supersonic aircraft capable of carrying a Kinzal hypersonic missile, was also seen in the sky over Belarus during the air attacks on Friday in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. But it was not clear from their statement whether a Kinzal was used in the attacks.
Kirby said that Russia is being taxed on their defense industrial base. They are having difficulty keeping up with that pace. Russian President Vladimir Putin is having trouble with the replenishment of precision guided munitions.
U.S. and Ukrainian Response to the First World War: How Cold is the Cold Cold Cold War, and How Hard Will It Get?
The Iranian-made, self-detonating Shahed-136 and Shahed-131 drones were launched from the “eastern coast of the Sea of Azov,” the Air Force said in a statement on Facebook.
Zelensky said that he’s grateful to everyone who carries out repairs around the clock. “It is not easy, it is difficult, but I am sure: we will pull through together, and Russia’s aggression will fail.”
Ukrainians far from the eastern and southern frontlines of the ground war seek for some semblance of normality in the run-up to Christmas.
An artificial Christmas tree in the center of Kyiv was installed and decorated over the weekend, set to be illuminated with “energy-saving garlands” that will be powered by a generator at specific times, the city’s mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram.
Roughly 1,000 blue and yellow balls and white doves will decorate the tree in Sophia Square, with a trident placed at the tree’s summit. The countries that are supporting Ukranian will have a flag at the bottom.
Zelensky told the leaders at the summit that the Ukrainian children have asked St. Nicholas for air defense and weapons for victory.
Sanctions have not been enough to shake Russia’s determination to restore its empire at the cost of peaceful neighboring states. Instead of continuing to set up more targets for Russia to knock down, the US and Ukraine’s other Western backers should change the terms of the conflict. The international community must stand up to Russia for its savagery and naked aggression and not allow Russia to win the war of colonial reconquest. More direct intervention is long overdue.
In fact, repetition of the narrative that any one of a wide range of events that Russia would dislike will ensure “guaranteed escalation to the Third World War” has been highly effective in shaping US and Western behavior.
In doing so, the West has played along with the Kremlin’s pretense that it is not at war, only waging a “special military operation.” The consequences of Russia’s own aggression were protected.
It’s hard to imagine any other country being permitted by the world to wage the kind of campaign Russia has in Ukraine (and in Syria before it); still less with an overt agenda of exterminating the Ukrainian people.
That sets a bad example for other powers around the world. Nuclear weapons make it possible to wage genocidal wars of destruction against your neighbors, because other nations won’t intervene.
If that’s not the message the US and the West want other aggressor states around the world to receive, then supply of Patriot should be followed by far more direct and assertive means of dissuading Moscow.
The Task Force on UAVs in the Middle East: Iran, Russia, and the United States, as indicated by Conflict Armament Research
The task force has the responsibility for notifying all of the American companies that have components in the drones, officials said. Congressional staffers briefed on the effort told CNN that they hope the task force provides lawmakers with a list of US companies whose equipment is being found in the drones in an effort to force greater accountability by urging the companies to monitor their supply chains more closely.
Conflict Armament Research studied several drones that were downed in Ukraine and found that most of their components were made in the US.
Iran also uses front companies to buy equipment from the US and EU that may have a dual use, like the Austrian engines, that Tehran can then use to build drones, according to the Treasury Department, which sanctioned several of those companies in September.
Texas Instruments said in a statement to CNN that “TI is not selling any products into Russia, Belarus or Iran. TI complies with applicable laws and regulations in the countries where we operate, and partners with law enforcement organizations as necessary and appropriate. We do not support or condone the use of our products in applications they weren’t designed for.
The investigation has intensified in recent weeks amid intelligence obtained by the US that the Kremlin is preparing to open its own factory for drone production inside Russia as part of a deal with Iran, the officials said.
Agencies across Washington are involved in the task force, including the departments of Defense, State, Justice, Commerce and Treasury, with one official describing the inquiry as an “all hands on deck” initiative. The effort is being led by the White House National Security Council, and is part of a larger approach to dealing with Iran, a senior administration official said.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/politics/iranian-drones-russia-biden-task-force-us-tech-ukraine/index.html
US and European companies should be vigilant in export controls after a drone is downed in the Black Sea: Why do we need a US policy?
In October, CNN obtained access to a drone that was downed in the Black Sea near Odesa and captured by Ukrainian forces. It contained Japanese batteries, Austrian engines and American processors.
The White House believes that it is getting the attention of the Allies of the issue. The senior administration official told CNN that there was “growing broad and deep international consensus on Iran, from the EU to Canada to Australia and New Zealand, which is being led by US diplomacy.”
There is no evidence the western companies are exporting technology to other countries for use in drones, and that is a big reason why the task force has been so difficult.
That makes supply chain monitoring a challenge, though experts say US and European companies could be doing a lot more to track where their products are going.
The former chief technology officer at CrowdStrike thinks that American companies should be doing more to track their supply chains.
Keeping better track of resellers is a first step, he said, but the task is admittedly difficult because so many of these companies’ products are so commoditized and available off-the-shelf and online for civil purposes. Ultimately, neutering some Iranian front companies with sanctions and cutting off their supply from some western companies will be akin to “a game of whack a mole,” Alperovitch said, noting that they “can easily find another supplier.”
He added that the real “weak underbelly” of US policy when it comes to export controls is enforcement—and prosecuting the specific individuals involved in the illicit transactions.
“You can put companies on the [sanctioned] entities list,” he added, “but if you don’t actually go after the people involved, it doesn’t mean a whole lot.”
Biden-Weapons Deal Analyses in the Era of the War on Intermediate-Mass Proton-Antiproton Collisions
There are two key headline deliverables: first, the Patriot missile systems. Complex, accurate, and expensive, they have been described as the US’s “gold standard” of air defense. NATO preciously guards them, and they require the personnel who operate them – almost 100 in a battalion for each weapon – to be properly trained.
There are two types of munitions for Ukrainian jets. Russia andUkraine are the only countries in the world that have cannons that are not very accurate. Ukraine has been provided with more and more Western standard precision artillery and missiles, like Howitzers and HIMARS respectively.
But Moscow is struggling to equip and rally its conventional forces, and, with the exception of its nuclear forces, appears to be running out of new cards to play. The use of nuclear force has become less likely because China and India have joined the West in speaking out against it.
Western analysts have noted Russia has grumbled consistently about these deliveries, but been relatively muted in its practical response to the crossing of what, as recently as January, might have been considered “red lines.”
This is trickier. Congress’s likely new Speaker, Republican Kevin McCarthy, has warned the Biden administration cannot expect a “blank cheque” from the new GOP-led House of Representatives.
The remnants of the Trumpist “America First” elements of the party were skeptical about how much assistance the US should give the edges of eastern Europe.
Realistically, the bill for the slow defeat of Russia in this dark and lengthy conflict is relatively light for Washington, given its near trillion-dollar annual defense budget.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/21/europe/biden-weapons-deal-analysis-intl/index.html
Can the Patriots be a wartime weapon system? Revisiting Putin’s war with ordinary Ukrainians, according to historian A. K. Hertling
The ex-reality show star turned president is an example of how Putin’s war has turned ordinary Ukrainians into wartime heroes.
“This is not a system that will go after drones or smaller ballistic missiles,” he said. Can it do that? Absolutely. It doesn’t give you much of a return on investment if you want to knock down a $20,000 drone or a $100,000 missile from Russia with a $3-5 million rocket. What it can do for the low and medium systems to be able to go after the targets.
The U.S. Army and some of its allies use the arrays around the world. It was originally designed as an anti-aircraft system, and newer variants are used primarily to engage ballistic missiles.
It is too small to cover the entire of Ukraine with a strike range of less than 100 miles, and can only be used for missiles that are being targeted.
“These systems don’t pick up and move around the battlefield,” Hertling said. “You put them in place somewhere that defends your most strategic target, like a city, like Kyiv. If anyone thinks that the system will be spread all the way across a 500-mile border between Russia and Ukranian, they don’t know what they’re doing.
According to a report by CSIS, the missile rounds for the Patriot come in at around $4 million each. Rounds that expensive likely won’t be used to shoot down every missile Russia launches toward Ukraine, Hertling said.
“The Patriots are a defensive, anti-ballistic and anti-aircraft weapon system, with the emphasis on defensive,” Hertling said. “You don’t win wars with defensive capabilities. You win wars with offensive capabilities.”
The Kremlin Kills Ukraine: The U.S. Aid Package to End Ukraine’s Armed Forces in the First Day of World War II
The Kremlin has failed to eradicate Ukraine off the map over the last three hundred days. Russia is trying to weaponize winter by freezing and starving Ukrainian civilians and forcing families from their homes, according to a statement by the US Secretary of State.
The announcement was made on a day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in Washington, D.C. — his first trip outside of Ukraine since the war began — to plead for additional air defense capabilities as Russian strikes have repeatedly disrupted power and water supply across his country.
“It becomes a real humanitarian issue when you’re trying to deprive an entire country of its electrical grid and water and everything else,” said Jeffrey Edmonds, a 22-year Army veteran who now works as a Russia analyst at the Center for a New American Security. “I think they see that as a necessary step to help Ukrainians sustain themselves in the fight.”
That will do a great job of protecting a single city, like Kyiv. But it’s not putting a bubble over Ukraine,” said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Even on a compressed schedule, the training requirements mean that the Patriot system is unlikely to be operational until late winter or early spring, perhaps in February or March.
The push to get the system up and running as soon as possible could backfire, Cancian said: Ineffective operation caused by hasty training could hamper the system’s effectiveness; in a worst case scenario, Ukrainians might be unable to prevent Russians from destroying it. That in turn could damage the political will to send future assistance to Ukraine, he said.
“If the Ukrainians had a year or two to assimilate the system, that wouldn’t be any problem. They don’t have time to get it figured out. They want to do this in a couple weeks,” Cancian said.
Pressure has turned up on the U.S. and its allies to do more in the wake of the Russian air strikes on Ukraine.
In addition to the Patriot battery, the new aid package announced Wednesday also includes additional HIMARS ammunition, mortars, artillery rounds and tens of thousands of GRAD rockets and tank ammunition.
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Kelly Greico, a defense analyst at the Stimson Center, called the announcement “a sign that there is a real deep concern” among U.S. officials about Ukraine’s air defense capability.
Before October, Ukrainian air defenses had focused on protecting frontline troops in the east and south, along with key government buildings and military sites in Kyiv and a handful of regional hubs.
Greico said that it is terrible to face the choice of protecting your civilians from these brutal attacks and trying to ensure you have the long-term military wherewithal to continue to resist the Russian war effort.
Moscow said the war in Ukraine was set for a long confrontation after President Zelensky’s visit to Washington.
The Foreign Ministry said that they will achieve nothing even though the West supports the Ukrainian government.
Zakharova said that the tasks in the framework of the special military operation will be accomplished, taking into account the situation on the ground and actual realities.
Zelensky made an historic speech from the US Capitol, expressing gratitude for American aid in fighting Russian aggression and asking for more.
The United States and other countries have been increasing the range of weapons they give to Ukraine, according to the Kremlin. “This does not contribute to a speedy settlement of the situation, on the contrary.”
Peskov added that “there were no real calls for peace.” But during his address to the US Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky did stress that “we need peace,” reiterating the 10-point plan devised by Ukraine.
The meeting on Wednesday showed the US is in an indirect war against Russia that is directed at the last Ukrainian, Peskov said.
The Kremlin has also been selling that line to the Russian public, who is largely buying it, says Sergey Radchenko, a Russian history professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
“You could say that the majority of Russian people, although they are weary of the conflict, they still see this as an existential struggle between Russia and the West in which Ukraine is being played for a pawn,” he tells NPR’s Morning Edition.
Dismissing accusations of a proxy war, Sloat says Zelenskyy and Ukraine have made clear that they want a “just peace,” and all the U.S. has been doing is help the country defend itself against Russian aggression.
A spokesman for the South of Ukraine’s security and defense forces warned of a Russian strike against the country on Monday, referencing another incident earlier this month in the region.
Russian state news agencies are reporting three Russian servicemen were killed when a Ukrainian drone was shot down by Russian air defenses near a military airfield in Saratov Oblast.
Condolences for the explosion at the airfield of Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin and the continued bombing campaign against Ukraine
Law enforcement agencies are now investigating the incident at the airfield, said Saratov Oblast Governor Roman Busargin on Monday. The comments, posted on his official Telegram channel, came after reports circulated of an explosion in the city.
There weren’t any emergencies in the residential areas of the city. He also extended his condolences to the families of the servicemen, saying the government would provide them with assistance.
Colonel Ihnat said that if the Russians thought that no one at home would be affected by the war, they were wrong. He added that explosions at Russian airfields complicated the bombing campaign against Ukraine, forcing Moscow to relocate some of its aircraft, though no one is claiming that the strikes have seriously impeded the Russian barrage.
Earlier this month, CCTV footage appeared to show an explosion lighting up the sky in Engels. The governor reassured residents that there were no civilian infrastructure damaged and that the information about incidents at military facilities was being looked at by law enforcement agencies.
In Ukraine, the night from Sunday into Monday appeared unusually quiet. The governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region said that the Russian forces didn’t shell it for the first time in weeks.
The Kherson region was shelled 33 times in the past 24 hours, according to the Ukrainian Gov. Yaroslav Yanushevich. There were no injuries.
Since some cruise missiles are launched from bombers that fly from the airfields hit in the attacks, the strikes could potentially destroy the missiles on the ground at the Russian airfields before they can be deployed.
He explained that he had not spoken to the government and they could not confirm the strikes. There is absolutely no strategic reason not to try to do this.”
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Accused of Unacceptable Violations of the Stability Clause in a War on the Low-Energy Infrared
The Kinzhal, the most advanced missile in Russia, has less than a week to be delivered, Mr. Budanov said.
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Associated Press on Monday that his government intended to hold a peace summit in late February or early March and that Russia could not be invited until it first confronted the issue. It was not the first time a country claimed to be open to peace talks only on terms that are unacceptable to the other.