End Game of the War with Ukraine: Russian View of the U.S. State of the Union and Prospects for American Defense and National Security
And this is the logic Putin appears to be following, rubber-stamping the sham referendums in Ukraine’s Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and declaring them part of Russia.
According to Hill, Putin wants his negotiations to be with Biden and allies, not Ukraine: “He’s basically saying now you will have to negotiate with me and sue for peace. And that means recognizing what we have done on the ground in Ukraine.”
As an adviser to three US presidents on national security about Russia, Hill thinks Putin may be attempting an end game. “He feels a sense of acute urgency that he was losing momentum, and he’s now trying to exit the war in the same way that he entered it. He is the person in charge and he is framing the entire terms of the negotiation. “
Putin doesn’t want to follow in the footsteps of the Soviets or Romanovs. It’s possible that his recent desperate moves are related to the fact that he wanted to avoid using his nuclear weapons.
The total departure was said to be even higher by independent Russian media. They say more military age men have fled the country since conscription – 261,000 – than have so far fought in the war – an estimated 160,000 to 190,000.
The perception that Putin is not reading Russia’s mood is growing stronger, as shown by the 40 kilometers of traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia.
Kortunov understands the public sentiment about the high costs of war, even though he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin. People would start asking questions Why did we get into this mess? We lost a lot of people.
He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.
Western leaders are in a battle of brinksmanship with Putin. Last Sunday US national security adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Washington would respond decisively if Russia deployed nuclear weapons against Ukraine and has made clear to Moscow the “catastrophic consequences” it would face.
What Putin is doing is throwing everything at the tide now, and what he wants to tell the world about the problems in the region of Ukraine
Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.
Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.
According to Hill, the sabotage of the Nord Stream could be Putin’s final shot at turning the tide on the gas issues. And it’s not going to be possible for Europe to continue to build up its gas reserves for the winter. So what Putin is doing is throwing absolutely everything at this right now.”
Western intelligence sources said that Russian naval vessels were seen by European security officials. The damage was described as reckless and irresponsible by NATO.
Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a plan to seize Ukraine quickly. Those plans dissolved from the first days of the Russians’ invasion with their failure to capture Kyiv.
Putin appears to be trying to divide the West over terms for peace, having failed to unite the Western military in support of Ukraine.
France and Germany will be the first to say that we need to end the war and protect our territories at all costs, and that you need to put pressure on the Ukrainians.
In response to the influx of advanced Western weapons and what he saw as Western leaders’ inflammatory statements, Putin has occasionally mentioned his potential use of nuclear weapons. Putin didn’t promise that Russia wouldn’t be the first to use the weapons when asked by a member of the Human Rights Council. He said Russia wouldn’t be able to use nuclear weapons if it agreed to not use them until after a nuclear strike.
What Does Putin Really Know About the Soviet Union, Afghanistan, and the Russians: A New Look at Putin’s Time for the Cold War in Ukraine
Peter Bergen is a professor of practice at Arizona State University, vice president of New America and CNN’s national security analyst. Bergen is the author of “The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World.” The views he expresses in the commentary are his own. CNN has more opinions on it.
The timing was worse than expected. Putin lost Lyman just as he was publicly declaring that the Donetsk region – in which Lyman sits – was now annexed by Russia.
This pressure from the West may finally be producing real results. Putin’s announced martial law in Ukrainian territories Russia now only partly controls, attacks on civilian targets deep in Ukraine’s interior, and a new, hardline commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Shurokin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by colleagues, all suggest a growing frustration bordering on fear that the Russian people may begin noticing what has long been blindingly obvious: Putin is losing.
With even his allies expressing concern, and hundreds of thousands of citizens fleeing partial mobilization, an increasingly isolated Putin has once again taken to making rambling speeches offering his distorted view of history.
His justification for the war in Ukraine was defined in his revisionist account by the fact that the Soviet Union had always been part of Russia.
When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan in December 1979, they planned to install a puppet government and get out of the country as soon as it was feasible, as explained in a recent, authoritative book about the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, “Afghan Crucible” by historian Elisabeth Leake.
The US was initially unwilling to escalate its support for the Afghan resistance because of concerns about a larger conflict with the Soviet Union. The CIA helped end the Soviet air superiority over Afghanistan in 1986 by giving the Afghans anti-aircraft missiles, which eventually forced them to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.
In 2022, American weapons are again playing a decisive role in Russian fortunes on the battlefield. The US was initially hesitant of deeper involvement in the war in Ukraine due to fear of a larger conflict with the Russians.
But the US put those fears to rest relatively quickly, and American-supplied anti-tank Javelin missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), GPS-guided missiles, have helped the Ukrainians to push back against the Russians.
How Vladimir Putin and the Russian Revolution Preceded the First World War: From Ukraine to the Russian Peninsula – A Memomorandum from Lawrence Freedman
Putin is also surely aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was hastened by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.
He must know that the Romanov monarchy was weakened by the Russian loss in 1905. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. Subsequently, much of the Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.
On February 22, two days before the invasion of Russia, Donald Trump publicly praised the Russian leader for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent and moving his troops there.
In his just-released book, titled ” Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine,” Lawrence Freedman, the former professor of war studies at King’s College London, explains how Putin plunged his countrymen into the Ukrainian morass.
The first dissolution of the Russian empire took place as the First World War ended in 1917, and the second took place in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union.
The fate of Europe after the Second World War : How do the French and Russian governments grapple with the crisis? A CNN analysis of Vladimir Putin’s comments on “A Red Line in the Sand”
The author of the book “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen”, is a member of the French Legion of Honor. He worked for CBS News and the New York Times. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.
He aims to distract his nation from the obvious, that he is losing on the battlefield and failing to achieve even the scaled back objectives of his invasion.
The winter will be crucial in determining who will win the most titanic battles of forces in Europe since the Second World War as both Russia and Ukraine attempt to turn the screws on each other. It’s worth a deep look at what’s in play right now.
This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.
In the early hours of Friday in Brussels, European Union powers agreed a roadmap to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies at a whim.
These include an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub – the Dutch Title Transfer Facility – and permission for EU gas companies to create a cartel to buy gas on the international market.
The French president, who celebrated leaving the summit, conceded that there was a mandate for the European Commission to begin work on a gas cap mechanism.
Europe’s biggest economy Germany is skeptical of price caps. Now energy ministers must work out details with a Germany concerned such caps would encourage higher consumption – a further burden on restricted supplies.
These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. It is central to achieve success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint that Manifold forces in Europe.
Germany and France are already at loggerheads on many of these issues. The conference call will take place on Wednesday, though the two leaders are trying to reach some accord.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html
The Italian PM, and the U.S. War in the Cold War: The Case Against Russian-Industrial Forces in Italy
The new government takes power in Italy. The woman who became Italy’s first woman prime minister has tried to distance herself from the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right partners has expressed their admiration for Putin.
At an event for his party loyalists, Berlusconi talked about Putin sending him 20 bottles of alcohol on his birthday, and a sweet letter.
The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”
At the same time, Poland and Hungary, longtime ultra-right-wing soulmates united against liberal policies of the EU that seemed calculated to reduce their influence, have now disagreed over Ukraine. Poland took offense at Orban’s pro-Putin sentiment.
Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They will not do it.
Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.
Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.
The US has offered over $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, but Republicans voted against the latest aid package.
This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces have been the underpinnings of their remarkable battlefield successes against a weakening, undersupplied and ill-prepared Russian military.
Russia is under pressure from the West at the same time. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.
Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.
On the day before this report, the US announced it had seized property of a top Russian procurement agent who was responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end- users.
The Justice Department said it would bring criminal charges against people and companies who try to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html
Vladimir Putin admits that “Russia’s war in Ukraine is taking longer than he expected” and that the West is going to war with the Turks
Still, there remain hardliners like Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s puppet leader in Donetsk, who voiced his real intention toward Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We have a choice: 1 million, 5 million, or all of you.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said his country’s nuclear weapons are putting a stop to the violence of the conflict in Ukraine and acknowledged that his military operation is taking longer than he expected.
The war that began with Russia’s intervention in Syria has killed hundreds of thousands and left millions homeless. He vowed to “fight for our interests and to protect ourselves through all means” despite its length. He reiterated his claim that he had no choice but to send in troops, saying that for years, the West responded to Russia’s security demands with “only spit in the face.”
Speaking in a televised meeting in Russia with members of his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as “a significant result for Russia,” noting that the Sea of Azov “has become Russia’s internal sea.” In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.
After failing to take Kyiv due to fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russia seized broad swaths of southern Ukraine at the start of the invasion and captured the key Sea of Azov port of Mariupol in May after a nearly three-month siege. In September, Putin annexed four Ukrainian regions even though his forces didn’t fully control them. He had annexed the territory of Ukranian in 2014).
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/08/1141496360/vladimir-putin-acknowledges-russias-war-in-ukraine-is-taking-longer-than-he-expe
Nuclear Warfare in the Balkans: Putin’s Implications for the Security and Security of the Interior and Border Areas of the Republic of Ukraine
“If it doesn’t use it first under any circumstances, it means that it won’t be the second to use it, either, because the possibility of using it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory will be sharply limited,” he said.
The previous nuclear weapons comments that were made by Putin were not considered saber-rattling and they were a factor of deterrence.
We have not gone mad. Putin said that they are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are. He added, without elaborating: “We have them, and they are more advanced and state-of-the-art than what any other nuclear power has.”
In his televised remarks, the Russian leader didn’t address Russia’s battlefield setbacks or its attempts to cement control over the seized regions but acknowledged problems with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.
Russian troops have withdrawn not only from the Kyiv area and around the country’s largest city, Kharkiv, but from a large part of the Kherson region. The attacks on air force bases deep inside Russia are a problem for Putin. He put much of the country, especially border areas, on security alert recently, and fresh signs emerged Wednesday that Russian officials are strengthening border defensive positions.
There are anti-tank barriers in open fields in the region, according to the governor. After a drone strike, a fire broke out at an airport in the region. Belgorod’s workers were expanding anti-tank barriers, and officials were organizing self-defense units. Belgorod has seen numerous fires and explosions, apparently from cross-border attacks, and its governor reported Wednesday that Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.
In brazen drone attacks, two strategic Russian air bases more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the Ukraine border were struck Monday. The Russian side blamed the Ukrainians and didn’t say who was responsible.
Moscow retaliated with attacks on residential buildings and infrastructure, worsening the damage to the power grid. Private Ukrainian power utility Ukrenergo said temperatures in eastern areas where it was making repairs had dropped to as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius (near zero Fahrenheit).
At his meeting, Putin discussed the mobilization of 300,000 reservists that he ordered in September to bolster forces in Ukraine. He said that so far only about 150,000 have been deployed to combat zones and the rest are still in training. Addressing speculation that the Kremlin could be preparing another mobilization, Putin said: “There is no need for the Defense Ministry and the country to do that.”
There was a lot of incorrect thinking on both sides. Putin didn’t expect the west to unite behind Ukraine the way it did, and doesn’t appear to have expected Europe to shift away from fossil fuels so quickly.
Something else that has gone well from the Kremlin’s point of view is the country’s propaganda machine. It helped convince many Russians that the war was not going disastrously wrong, and that it was the West that was forcing Russia to fight. The Russian economy has not been derailed the way the West had expected, and much of the world has not turned its back on Russia.
It was a very intense reporting effort. I was trying to get beyond what we already know about Putin and get to some of the nuances surrounding him and his decision to go to war. It is not easy because it is not something that many people know about. It took a long time to talk.